Quantifying Ecological Effects of Climate Change
Diane M. Debinski
Ecology, Evolution and Organismal Biology
Iowa State University
Why look at Ecological Communities?
Most climate change
studies have focused
on the abiotic
components
Few data sets exist that
will allow scientists to
document changes in
biotic communities
Ecosystem
boundary
Yellowstone
River
Madison
Beaverhead
National
Forest
River
Gallatin
Ecosystem
boundary
National
Gallatin
National
Forest
Forest
Beaverhead
Custer
National
Forest
YELLOWSTONE
NATIONAL PARK
National Forest
Montana
Wyoming
River
Shoshone
Montana
Idaho
Shoshone
Targhee
National
National
Forest
GRAND TETON
NATIONAL PARK
Forest
Snake
River
Targhee
N. F.
Wind
National Elk
Refuge
River
Caribou
Bridger - Teton
National
National
River
Forest
boundary
Ecosystem
Idaho
E
S
Wyoming
Green
Forest
N
W
20
20
0
20
0
20
30
30
40 kilometers
40 miles
Global Climate Change:
Will montane meadows
move up or wink out?
Remotely Sensed Imagery
for Mapping Meadows
SPOT multispectral satellite imagery
Montane meadow map produced by
computer classification of SPOT data
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
M6
Resulting Landcover Maps
Landscape differences between regions
Gallatins
Tetons
Classification of meadow communities
LANDSAT images used to classify meadow habitats along a hydrological
gradient (using “pixel clustering”)
M1-hydric
M3- mesic
M6-xeric
Motivating Questions
Do biotic communities
recognize the remotely
sensed habitat types?
Do biotic communities
shift in unison over the
course of any given time
periods?
Can these shifts be related
to environmental
(climatic) factors?
Linking Landscape Changes & Communities
Datasets
Two regions: Gallatins vs. Tetons
Two taxa: Birds vs. Butterflies
Four taxon-regions for comparison
180 x 185 km
Four years: 1997-2001 (1999 efforts diverted elsewhere)
Five sites per M-type (M1-M6 w/o M4s)
100 site-years for each taxon-region comparison
Motivating Questions
Do biotic communities
recognize the remotely
sensed habitat types?
Biodiversity Data
Our Motto: Get The Data!
Jennet Caruthers
Species Patterns
Gallatins
Tetons
Plants
180 spp.
203 spp.
Birds
73 spp.
102 spp.
Butterflies
73 spp
82 spp.
Hydric Meadow Indicator Species
Mesic Meadow Indicator Species
Thinks.com
Xeric Meadow Indicator Species
Green biomass:
Gallatin meadow types
g ram s/sq . m eter
500
400
Shrubs
Graminoids
Forbs
300
200
100
0
GM1
GM2
GM3
GM4
Meadow Type
GM5
GM6
Do Animal Communities Recognize
Remotely Sensed Habitat Types?
NMDS Ordination
Site by species count matrix
Compute a site-to-site distance matrix based on
Bray-Curtis(dis)similarity index
Plot sites in ordination space that best represents
ecological distance by rank order
Butterfly Responses to Meadow Types
0.0
0.5
Teton Butterflies
Mtype 1
-0.5
Mtype 3
Mtype 5
-1.5
-1.0
Mtype 6
-2.0
NMDS 2
Mtype 2
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
NMDS 1
0.5
1.0
1.5
Community Responses to Meadow Types
Taxon-region
Tetons
Gallatins
M-type
R2
P (>R2)
Butterflies
0.81
< 0.001
Birds
0.65
< 0.001
Plants
0.67
< 0.001
Butterflies
0.58
< 0.001
Birds
0.46
<0.001
Plants
0.75
<0.001
Motivating Questions
Do biotic communities
shift in unison over the
course of any given
time periods?
Time Series……….
2002 to present…
1993
1997
Average daily precipitaion (mm/day)
Precipitation trends in GYE
3
2
1
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Year
„Average Daily precipitation in study area during the 350 day period
preceding June 30 each year based upon three weather stations (Stations
489905:Yellowstone Park Mammoth, 485345: Lake Yellowstone, and 486440:
Moran 5WNW).
Seasonal variation in vegetation condition
SPOT satellite imagery, Tepee & Daly Creeks
May 25, 1994
July 17, 1994
September 6, 1994
Interannual variation in vegetation condition
SPOT satellite imagery, Tepee & Daly Creeks
September 6, 1994
August 30,1997
August 28,1998
Linking Precipitation
Trends
to Sampling Sites
Due to lack of site-specific
climate variables, we used a
surrogate measure:
NDVI = (Near IR – red / near IR + red)
NDVI (normalized difference
vegetation index) is a measure of plant
productivity, vegetation condition, or
“green-up”
Assessing Change in Sites
as Defined by Communities
Re-plot ordination, using each site-year as a point,
connecting early year late year for each site
If all meadows are changing in the same way, all
arrows should point in the same direction
Changes in Butterfly communities
1.0
0.5
Only 1997 and 2000 plotted
Mtype 1
0.0
Mtype 2
Mtype 3
Mtype 5
-0.5
Mtype 6
-1.0
NMDS 2
Wetter M-types
show consistent
shift in similar
direction, while
dryer M-types
are not very
consistent
Gallatin Butterflies: 1997-2000 shift
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
NMDS 1
0.5
1.0
Changes in butterfly communities
0.5
Only 1997 and 2000 plotted
Mtype 1
0.0
Mtype 2
Mtype 3
Mtype 5
-0.5
Mtype 6
-1.0
NMDS 2
Contour surface
of meadow
types– some
sites cross
contour lines
between 1997
and 2000
1.0
Gallatin Butterflies: 1997-2000 shift
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
NMDS 1
0.5
1.0
Motivating Questions
Can these shifts be
related to
environmental
(climatic) factors?
Within M-type relationships between
community shift and NDVI:
Butterflies in Wet Meadows
Gallatin Butterflies: 1997-2000 shift in M2s
1.0
NDVI
Year
-0.5
-0.5
Year
NMDS 2
0.5
0.5
0.0
NMDS 2
0.0
-0.5
NDVI
0.0
1.0
0.5
NDVI
Year
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
NMDS 1
M1s
0.5
1.0
-1.0
-1.0
-1.0
NMDS 2
Gallatin Butterflies: 1997-2000 shift in M3s
1.0
Gallatin Butterflies: 1997-2000 shift in M1s
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
NMDS 1
M2s
0.5
1.0
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
NMDS 1
M3s
0.5
1.0
Hydric Meadow Butterflies to Monitor
Lycaena helloides, Boloria selene, Boloria
frigga, Euphydryas gillettii, Phyciodes
campestris, and Coenonympha haydenii
Hydric Meadow Butterflies Showing Major Changes
2004
Boloria frigga and Euphydryas gillettii
2006
Summary of Trend Detection
in Ecological Communities - I
Animal communities do reflect remotely
sensed habitat classification schemes
Community shifts can be correlated to
surrogate measures of climate
Some communities shift in unison over certain
time periods (Butterflies in Gallatin region)
Initial analyses showed that birds in neither
region showed shifts in unison, but…
3-Dimensional Perspectives
Gallatin Butterflies NMDS – Wet Meadows
Correlation between Year and NDVI: r = -0.94
3-Dimensional Perspectives
Teton Birds NMDS– All Meadows
Thinks.com
Correlation between Year and NDVI: r = -0.63
3-Dimensional Perspectives
Teton Birds – Wet Meadows
Correlation between Year and NDVI: r = -0.98
Hydric Meadow Birds to Monitor
Johnsonmill.com
Paulnoll.com
Summary of Trend Detection
in Ecological Communities - II
We had concluded that the smaller patches of the
Gallatins combined with the mobility of the butterfly
taxon made compositional shifts possible.
In the Tetons, where patches are larger and birds are
more mobile as a taxon, a second combination of
patch configuration and taxon mobility shows
correlated responses for time and NDVI .
Next Steps: Soil Moisture Monitoring
Next Steps
Revisit plant community data
to document changes
Acknowledgements
Acknowledgements
EPA STAR Grant R825155
NSF LTREB Grant DEB
0518150
Grand Teton Natural History
Association
Yellowstone National Park
Grand Teton National Park
University of WyomingNational Park Service Research
Station
Montana Department of Fish,
Wildlife and Parks
U.S. Forest Service
Iowa State University
Experiment Station
Denver Zoological Foundation
Iowa Space Consortium/NASA