The Grinnell Project: Small Mammal Responses
To Climate Change in California, the Yosemite Transect
CHRIS J. CONROY, MICHELLE S. KOO,
WILLIAM MONAHAN, JUAN PARRA, SUSAN CAMERON,
JAMES L. PATTON, and CRAIG MORITZ
Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, University of California, Berkeley
Trinity
Lassen
S. Bernardino Mts.
S. Jacinto Mts.
Colorado River
Yosemite
Grinnell’s life zones
Elevation (m)
330 0
0
0
27
180 0
900
150
20 0
280 0 2
OUR MOTIVATIONS TO CONDUCT THE STUDY
RIGHT TIME
1. CENTENNIAL PROJECT, AKA GRINNELL RESURVEY
TO CELEBRATE 100TH ANNIVERSARY
2. INVITATION FROM USGS/NPS
RIGHT COLLECTION
1. FIELD NOTES
2. PHOTOGRAPHS
3. SPECIMENS
BEYOND THE SPECIMENS:
MVZ’s historical field notes (> 91,000 pages; >35,000 scanned)…
upper Lyell Canyon
1915
2003
2003
4 - 14 Aug
8 - 16 June
23 - 31 July
20 May 1 June
4 - 11 Sept
8 - 17 July
2004
2005
Survey Elevation
14000
2003
2004
2005
historic
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
0.5
2003
1.5
2004
2.5
2005
Period
3.5
1915-20 4.5
Peaslee Creek, 4.2 mi SW La Grange, 156 ft
Goat Ranch, 1850 ft
Yosemite Valley, 4000 ft
HAPPY ISLES FEN, 4100 ft
Merced
Grove,
5600 ft
Chinquapin - Glacier pt. Road, 6500 ft
Glen Aulin, 7800 ft
Lyell Canyon, 10,000 ft
Peromyscus truei
Sorex lyelli
Ochotona princeps
Spermophilus
beecheyi
Tamias speciosus
Aplodontia
rufa
MAMMALS EXAMINED, YOSEMITE 2003
300
250
Peromyscus maniculatus
200
Microtus longicaudus
150
Sorex monticolus
100
Zapus princeps
50
0
SP ECIES
Scapanus latimanus
Sorex palustris
Microtus californicus
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MODERN ONLY
GRINNELL ONLY
SHARED
20
15
10
5
0
Few high elevation species: Expansion of lower elevation limit (3800 ft)
NO CHANGE
Microtus longicaudus
Microtus montanus
Peromyscus boylii
Peromyscus maniculatus
Zapus princeps
Tamiasciurus douglasii
Tamias speciosus
Sorex trowbridgii
RARE AND HARD TO DOCUMENT
Sorex lyelli
Sorex tenellus - New for park
Phenacomys intermedius
Sorex palustris
WHY THE CHANGE IN MAMMAL DISTRIBUTION?
GROSS CHANGES IN HABITATS (PHOTOS)
CLIMATE DATA - TEMPERATURE INCREASES
VEGETATION CHANGE - EXPANDING CONIFER FORESTS
MVZ 1367
Yosemite Valley from the old Oak Flat Road
Not much change on the slopes,
same shrubs still there
1916
2005
Vogelsang Lake, ~10,000 feet
1915
2004
Yosemite Valley
Barren
21%
Herbaceous
15%
Conifer
35%
Shrub
21%
Broadleaved
8%
USING YOSEMITE DATA TO
MODEL CHANGES ACROSS CALIFORNIA
MODERN
DATA
2003-2006
GRINNELL’S
DATA
PAST
DISTRIBUTION
MODELS
TESTING &
REFINING MODELS
CLIMATE
(ENVIRON.)
DATA
FUTURE
PROJECTIONS
Historic Climate
Modeling
Juan Parra &
William Monahan
Climate stations used to interpolate
climate surfaces for California. Stations
had at least 10 years of monthly data for
the historic time period (1900 – 1940).
Many more stations to use for the current
time period (1980 – 2006).
Historic Climate Model
• Purpose: climate surface contemporary
with “Grinnell” period survey data (19001940)
• Method: thin plate splining (ANUSPLIN)
• Results: climate model to generate
bioclimatic variables & to calculate change
from Grinnell period.
Change in total precipitation
of the driest quarter
(current – historic).
Blue represents areas
where precipitation has
decreased relative to the
historic time period.
Note:Prec in mm *10
Change in total precipitation
of the wettest quarter
(current –historic).
Blue represents areas
where precipitation has
increased during the wettest
quarter relative to the historic
time period.
Note:Prec in mm *10
Environmental Variables
Annual Mean Temperature
Mean Diurnal Range (Mean of monthly (max temp - min temp))
Isothermality (P2/P7) (* 100)
Temperature Seasonality (standard deviation *100)
Max Temperature of Warmest Month
Min Temperature of Coldest Month
Temperature Annual Range (P5-P6)
Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter
Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter
Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter
Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter
Annual Precipitation
Precipitation of Wettest Month
Precipitation of Driest Month
Precipitation Seasonality (Coefficient of Variation)
Precipitation of Wettest Quarter
Precipitation of Driest Quarter
Precipitation of Warmest Quarter
Precipitation of Coldest Quarter
Basic Methods
Species Distribution Modelling
Species
Data
Historic
Climate
Data
MaxEnt
&
BIOCLIM
Assessment with
Current Climate &
Current Sampling
1. Selected 24 small mammal species
based on sample size and geographic
range criteria (see species list on next
slide). Data are MVZ specimen
records.
2. Used historic species occurrences
(1900-1940) in conjunction with
historic climate surfaces to create
niche models with Maxent and
Bioclim.
3. Projected historical models onto
present-day climate surfaces and
assessed statewide model
performance using modern point
locality data (1980-2006).
Boreal
Microtus montanus
Ochotona princeps
Spermophilus beldingi
Tamias alpinus
Tamias amoenus
Tamias senex
Tamias speciosus
Thomomys monticola
Zapus princeps
Transition
Peromyscus boylii
Sorex trowbridgii
Tamias quadrimaculatus
Lower
Sonoran
Chaetodipus californicus
Dipodomys heermanni
Dipodomys panamintinus
Peromyscus truei
Reithrodontomys megalotis
Generalist
Glaucomys sabrinus
Microtus californicus
Microtus longicaudus
Peromyscus maniculatus
Spermophilus beecheyi
Spermophilus lateralis
Thomomys bottae
BIOCLIM
(Nix 1986)
Generated from DIVA-GIS
0-100 percentile
2.5 -97.5 percentile
5 - 95 percentile
MaxEnt
•
•
•
•
(Phillips, Dudik, and Schapire 2004;
Phillips, Anderson, and Schapire 2005)
Maximum Entropy framework
Machine learning algorithm
Uses presence-only data
Can use continuous or categorical
environmental data
• Weights environmental variables one
iteration at a time to maximize the
likelihood of optimum probability
distribution
Model projections: Grinnell Î present
Lodgepole chipmunk
Tamias speciosus
Maxent
Boreal
California Vole Microtus californicus
Maxent
Generalist
Bioclim
Projected
Range Gain
Projected
Range Loss
Tamias speciosus
Boreal
Reithrodontomys megalotis
Lower Sonoran
Dipodomys panamintinus
Lower Sonoran
Sorex trowbridgii
Lower Transition
Zapus princeps
Boreal
Ochotona princeps
Boreal
Tamias alpinus
Boreal
Spermophilus beldingi
Boreal
Peromyscus boylii
Lower Transition
Spermophilus beecheyi
Generalist
Chaetodipus californicus
Lower Sonoran
Dipodomys heermanni
Lower Sonoran
Glaucomys sabrinus
Generalist
Thomomys bottae
Generalist
Microtus longicaudus
Generalist
Microtus californicus
Generalist
Peromyscus truei
Lower Sonoran
Tamias senex
Boreal
Peromyscus maniculatus
Generalist
Microtus montanus
Boreal
Spermophilus lateralis
Generalist
Tamias quadrimaculatus
Lower Transition
Tamias amoenus
Boreal
Thomomys monticola
Boreal
ONGOING WORK
FIELDWORK
NEW SITES IN YOSEMITE - BASELINE, GROUNDTRUTHING
REVISITING SITES - GROUNDTRUTHING, INTERANNUAL VARIATION
LASSEN PROJECT - ONGOING
BOREAL/ALPINE PROJECT - PROJECTED (FUNDING PENDING)
MODELING OF SPECIES DISTRIBUTIONS
ANCIENT DNA STUDIES
POPULATION LEVEL STUDIES
CLIMATE MODELLING
FUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIOS
Grinnell Resurvey
Project:
Realizing his vision of
using museum specimens
to document and
understand patterns and
change in the natural world.
•Ongoing research
•Collaborators welcome
• Input from climatologists!
Grinnell Life Zones
MVZ.BERKELEY.EDU