NASA’s Next Generation Earth-Observing Satellites;
Opportunities for Global Change Research and Applications
By John Dwyer, USGS, EROS for
NASA’s Applied Sciences Program
L. DeWayne Cecil
Chief Scientist
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NASA is Seeking Proposals That
Focus on the Nine
Next Generation Missions
Augmented by Current
Missions Where Needed
and Appropriate
Note: CIRMOUNT will receive notice for the 2007 solicitation
2
The Nine “Next” Generation Missions
CloudSat (Launched April 28, 2006) - Cloud Property Profiles
CALIPSO (Launched April 28, 2006) - Cloud Aerosol Properties
Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) - Space-based measurements
of atmospheric CO2
Launch September 2008
Ocean Surface Topography Mission (OSTM) - Sea surface height
Launch June 2008
NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) - Climate change signals,
global biological productivity
Launch April 2009
Aquarius - Global sea surface salinity
Launch July 2009
Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) - Global precipitation
Constellation Launch 2014
Glory - Earth’s energy balance and climate change
Launch December 2008
Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM) – Land Surface Imaging
Launch 2011
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Goals of the Science Framework Session
Rapid Prototyping Workshop
Overview Of An Example RPC Experiment
Present Several Tools That Can Be Components In Rapid
Prototyping Configurations
• Research Results and Science Products From:
– NASA’s Modeling and Analysis Program
» Earth System Modeling Framework
– NASA’s Water and Energy Cycle Program
– Observation System Simulation Experiments
(OSSEs)
– Project Columbia and Applied Sciences
• Visualization of Model Outcomes for Decision Support
Maintain Scientific Rigor Throughout The Process
• Characterization and Reporting of Uncertainty
• Transparent and Inclusive Science and Engineering
Communities Peer Review
• Scientific and Engineering Accountability; Agreed upon set
of Metrics
4
System Diagram for NASA’s Applied Sciences
Activities
Research
and Analysis
Program
Applied Sciences
Program
Crosscutting
Solutions
supply
Operations
National
Applications
demand
R&O
NASA
Earth Science
Research
Solutions
Network
Rapid Prototyping
Capacity
Integrated
System Solution
Societal
Benefits
•Water and Energy
• Verification
•Benchmarking
•Climate
•Evaluation
and
•Weather
Validation
•Carbon
Uncertainty Analysis, Scientific Rigor, Community Peer Review
•Solid Earth
5
•Atmospheric Composition
•Solar
Bringing Global Climate Change Model Projections to
the Watershed Scale: Pitfalls, Opportunities, and
Uncertainties for Decision Support
EARTH SYSTEM MODELS
AND DATASETS
• Watershed scale, 2-D, snow, ice, and
water mass balance model (Plummer
and Phillips, 2005) with input from
NASA global scale projections
•Rigorous large ensemble
probability distribution analyses
• OSSE datasets for next generation
satellites
•Rigorous statistical design built
into OSSEs upfront (NIST as a
partner)
• Climate Models in ESMF: GISS Model E
and other GMAO Analyses
Pre
dict
ion
RAPID PROTOTYPING V&V
s
•Uncertainty analyses,
uncertainty analyses,
Uncertainty analyses!
•Global/Regional/Watershed scale model
products
• Regional differences
in aerosols and trace
gas concentrations and
impacts on climatology
•12 – 18 month
seasonal forecasts,
5 – 20 year projections,
Data
EARTH OBSERVATIONS
• Atmosphere: Aura, TRMM,
OCO, CALIPSO, CloudSat,
GPM, Aquarius
& Century timescale
projections
• Natural & anthropogenic
aerosols, black carbon
• Trace gas profiles
• Climate-Change
Parameters
• Tropical/Global/Regional
Precipitation
• Total Aerosols
• Land : ICESat, MODIS
• Field Mission: Watershedscale airborne campaigns,
Ground-based monitoring
network
*Next Generation Missions
O
Potential
Partners
s
tion
a
v
r
bse
DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS
• Use OSSE simulated
next generation and
current mission
datasets for climate
change scenario
assessments WITH
associated
uncertainties carried
throughout projections
• Use OSSE simulated
data from next
generation missions
with existing
measurements of
climate change
parameters from space
to estimate the
watershed-scale mass
balance and climate
change impacts
VALUE & BENEFITS
•Impacts of global
climate change on
the Watershed scale
•Water resource
management on
local scale
•Climate-change
impacts on wastemanagement facility
sighting
•Decision support
with uncertainty
quantified and
communicated (NSF
as a partner)
• Interagency Alignment:
CCSP, CCTP, US GEO
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Uncertainty Analysis, Scientific Rigor, Community Peer Review
Bringing Global Climate Change Model Projections
to the Watershed Scale: Pitfalls, Opportunities, and
Uncertainties for Decision Support
• Watershed-Scale Applied Science Questions?
(1) How can global predictions of the effects of
future rapid climate change and variability
be enhanced and used?
(2) How are uncertainties in global projections
compounded, or not, at the watershed scale?
(3) What are the implications for decisionsupport?
Øksfjordjøkelen, Norway
Upper Fremont Glacier, Wyoming, USA
Beluka Glacier, Siberia, Russia
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Tools to Address the Science Questions
•Datasets Generated From Future-Mission OSSEs
•OCO, CALIPSO, CloudSat, GPM, Aquarius
•Datasets From Current Missions
•Aura, TRMM, ICESat, MODIS
•Global Climate Change Model Projections Using All Data
•GISS E, other GMAO Analyses
•Global Model Output Used As Watershed-Scale Model Input
•ESMF Compliant NASA Model Codes
•Partner’s ESMF Compliant Model Codes
•Uncertainty Analyses of Inputs and Outputs
Decision Support
Inputs/Outputs MAP 2006
OSSE Datasets
Tools for
Uncertainty Analysis
Inputs/Outputs MAP 2005
GEOS-5
Watershed
Scale MB
MODEL
JCSDA
fvGCM (GEOS4)
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Project Columbia
Example Statistical Tools with Potential to
Enhance OSSE Analysis/Interpretation and For
Analyzing Uncertainty of Model Projections
Statistical Analyses Built Into Experiments Up Front
• Allow efficient, unambiguous comparisons of
different methods for using data, including
interactions between factors
Uncertainty analysis
• Propagates uncertainty in model inputs and outputs
• Necessary for realistic interpretation of all types of
measurement results
• Computer intensive methods such as the Bootstrap
and Bayesian analyses using Markov Chain Monte
Carlo have the potential to handle complicated,
intricate model projections and datasets
• Augment rigorous large ensemble probability
distribution determinations
9
NASA’s Applied Sciences Program Will Ask for
Enhanced Visualization of Experimental Results
for Decision Support
WHERE DID WE GO WRONG?
10
Metrics for Determining Successes and
Shortcomings of an Evolving Process
Example Integrated System Solutions Metrics
**Do Not Rely On One Metric Alone**
•Reduction and Communication of Uncertainty
•In Datasets
•In Climate-Change Projections (Forcings)
•In Decision Making
•Transparent and Inclusive Community
of Practice Peer Review
•Improved or Enhanced Decision Support
•Expert analysts’ surveys are a significant first
step, we must continue with more rigorous
metrics, i.e., how did we enhance decision
support, which combinatory factors/science
products maximized enhancement?
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Metrics Should Apply To All
Rapid Prototyping Experiments
Potential Experiments
With Application in
Alpine Environments
Use of Satellite Data, Model Projections, and
Ground-Based Data for Improved
Homeland Security
EARTH SYSTEM MODELS
AND DATASETS
• OSSE datasets for next
generation satellites
• Atmospheric Analysis Projects:
ISCCP, GPCP
• NGA gravity and targeting
models coupled with GMAO
ESMF compliant models
• Cloud assimilation
• Gravity anomaly assimilation,
GMAO
Arctic Methane and Carbon Inventories for
Climate Change Assessments and/or
Weather Forecasts
EARTH SYSTEM MODELS
AND DATASETS
• OSSE datasets for next generation
satellites
• Climate Models: GISS Model E
• Earth System & Climate Change:
GMAO Analysis
• Seasonal Prediction Models:
NSIPP Analysis
• Aerosol Transport Models: RAQMS,
GMAO fvCAM
• Atmospheric Analysis Projects:
ISCCP, GPCP
• LANL CICE: Sea Ice Model
Data
EARTH OBSERVATIONS
• Atmosphere: Aura, TRMM,
OCO, CALIPSO, CloudSat,
GPM
• Utilize the thermal IR of TES
on Aura and the near IR of
OCO for surface methane and
carbon dioxide
• Land and Cryosphere :
ICESat, Terrestrial Networks In
the Arctic
*Next Generation Missions
• Global/Regional scale
model products
• Regional differences
in trace gas
concentrations and
impacts on climatology
•Early warning
forecasts for rapid
dramatic environmental
changes
• 12 – 18 month
seasonal forecasts
• 10 – 20 year forecasts
• Trace gas profiles
CO2
CH4 (major GHG in
arctic due to levels in
melting permafrost)
• Cloud systems
• Tropical/Global
Precipitation
• Total Aerosols
s
tion
erva
Obs
• Simulate the
measurement of
increases of CO2, CH4,
and water vapor as a
result of permafrost
loss and associated
positive feedback to
climate system
• Interagency Alignment:
CCSP, US GEO
Pre
dicti
o
RAPID PROTOTYPING V&V
DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS
ns
• Global/Regional
scale model products
• Regional differences
in gravity anomalies
•Characterization of
uncertainties in
scenario assessments
• Use OSSE simulated next
generation mission
datasets for scenario
assessment of gravity
maps and cloud cover
• Simulate the effects of
gravity anomalies and
cloud cover on targeting
• Cloud systems
• Interagency Alignment:
US GEO
VALUE & BENEFITS
• Improved
response to threats
to National Security
• Improved a- priori
National Security
threat scenario
assessment
• Gravity maps
• Land and Cryosphere :
GRACE, Terra and Aqua
(MODIS), ICESat
DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS
• Use OSSE simulated
next generation
mission datasets for
scenario assessment of
rapid climate change in
the Arctic and
associated positive
feedbacks due to loss
of permafrost and snow
cover
EARTH OBSERVATIONS
• Atmosphere: CALIPSO,
CloudSat
RAPID PROTOTYPING V&V
P re
dicti
ons
U.S. Department of Defense
National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency
U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Data
Potential
Partners
Potential
Partners
VALUE & BENEFITS
• Early warning of
potentially
dramatic increase
in the loss of
snow cover and
permafrost in the
arctic
• Terrestrial gravity-calibration
networks
Draft For Discussion
Purposes
*Next Generation Missions
DeWayne Cecil 4/14/06
Uncertainty Analysis, Scientific Rigor, Community Peer Review
Carbon and Water Management
OCO, GPM, CloudSat,
CALIPSO, Aquarius
Uncertainty Analysis, Scientific Rigor, Community Peer Review
Characterization of
Precipitation and Air Pollution:
Drought Reduction and Air Quality
• Protection of
endangered
species, coastal
areas, and
anthropogenic
infrastructure in
the Arctic
Draft For Discussion
Purposes
DeWayne Cecil 4/14/06
s
tion
erva
Obs
Homeland
Security
CloudSat
CALIPSO
GRACE
EARTH SYSTEM MODELS
AND DATASETS
Drought
Assessment
And
Air Quality
OCO
CloudSat
CloudSat
• OSSE datasets for next
generation satellites
• Clouds and Precipitation
Assimilation
• Aerosol Transport Models:
RAQMS, GMAO fvCAM
• Climate Models: GISS Model E
• Earth System & Climate Change:
GMAO Analysis
Data
EARTH OBSERVATIONS
• Atmosphere: Aura, TRMM,
OCO, CALIPSO, CloudSat,
GPM
• Land : Terrestrial Networks
• Field Mission: INTEX-B /
MILAGRO
*Next Generation Missions
Potential
Partners
RAPID PROTOTYPING V&V
DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS
Pre
dicti
ons
•Correlations between
air pollution and
amount of precipitation
•Global/Regional scale
model products
• Regional differences
in aerosols and trace
gas concentrations and
impacts on air quality
•12 – 18 month
seasonal forecasts
• 10 – 20 year forecasts
• Natural & anthropogenic
aerosols, black carbon
• Trace gas profiles
• Cloud systems
• Tropical/Global/Regional
Precipitation
• Total Aerosol Amount
s
tion
erva
Obs
• Use OSSE simulated
next generation and
current mission
datasets for scenario
assessment of the
apparent correlation
between level of air
pollution and amount
of precipitation (Borys
and Lowenthal, 2003;
Rosenfeld, 2006)
• Use spaceborne,
surface, and airborne
measurements and
model data products
for verification &
validation of drought
prediction and air
quality modeling tools
• Interagency Alignment:
CCSP, US GEO
VALUE & BENEFITS
•Potential tool to aid
in the prediction of
fluctuations in
drought conditions
•Air quality
monitoring support
tool
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Draft For Discussion
Purposes
DeWayne Cecil 4/14/06
Uncertainty Analysis, Scientific Rigor, Community Peer Review
Contact Information
L. DeWayne Cecil, Ph.D.
Chief Scientist
NASA Applied Sciences Program
NASA Headquarters
300 E St. SW
Washington, DC 20546
202-358-0743
lcecil@hq.nasa.gov
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