The MTNCLIM Year: Western Climate 2004-05
in Perspective*
Kelly T. Redmond
Western Regional Climate Center
Desert Research Institute
Reno Nevada
* p.s. The Pacific still matters.
PACLIM / MTNCLIM Start Day. 1984-2005. Day of the Year.
.
Non Leap: 60 = Mar 1, 91 = Apr 1, 101 = May 1
Leap: 61 = Mar 1, 92 = Apr 1, 102 = May 1
Day of Year
150
120
90
60
1980
1985
1990
1995
Year
2000
2005
PACLIM 2004
March 28-31
Following which …
March Temperature (F)
Western United States (11 states) March Temperature.
Provisional data from NCDC / CPC. 2004 is warmest.
Units: Inches. Data source: NOAA Cooperative Network.
48.0
47.0
46.0
45.0
44.0
43.0
42.0
41.0
40.0
39.0
38.0
37.0
36.0
1 oC
35.0
34.0
33.0
Revised 041010
32.0
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
Western United States (11 states) March Precipitation.
Provisional data from NCDC / CPC. 2004 driest on record.
Units: Inches. Data source NOAA cooperative network.
March Precipitation ( inches )
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
10 mm
0.50
Revised 041010
0.00
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
Western Regional
Climate Center
Mar 2004
Apr 2004
May 2004
Jun 2004
Alaska Fires
MODIS
June 29, 2004
Alaska Fires
MODIS
June 30, 2004
Jul 2004
Aug 2004
Sep 2004
Oct 2004
California South Coast Climate Division. October Precipitation. 1895-2005.
Nov 2004
Dec 2004
Jan 2005
Ann 2004
April 1
Mountain
Snowpack
Pct of
average
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
NRCS Basin Maps.
Kelly Redmond.
Western Regional
Climate Center.
Lake Powell Storage Through February 28, 2004
34 % full
Courtesy Terry Fulp USBR / LC
Reno Sounding
KREV
2004 Dec 30
1200 GMT
Wet !!!
2005 Jan 9 Reno Nevada
2005 Jan 9 Reno NV
2005 January 14
2005 January 14
2005 January 16. Tioga Pass.
2005 January 9. Walker Lake.
2004 December 19 1615 GMT. Visible Wavelength.
2005 January 19 1800 GMT. Visible Wavelength.
MODIS 2005 January 25
MODIS 2005 January 25
MODIS 2005 January 25
MODIS 2005 January 25
Jan 14-27, 2005. Average Maximum Temp Departure from Long-term Average
ACIS Map. First 36 days of 2005.
700 mb / 10,000 ft. Temperature departure, 2005 Jan 14-27.
2005 January 23
MODIS 20050204
Annual Temperature. Western U.S. 1948-2004.
700 mb / 10,000 ft.
1C
Annual Temperature. Western U.S. 1948-2004.
600 mb / 14,000 ft.
1C
January Temperature. Western U.S. 1948-2005.
700 mb / 10,000 ft.
1C
Oct-Mar Temperature. Western U.S.
1948-2004. 700 mb / 10,000 ft.
1C
Mar-Apr-May Temperature. Western U.S.
1948-2004. 700 mb / 10,000 ft.
1C
March Temperature. Western U.S. 1948-2004.
700 mb / 10,000 ft.
1C
Silver Lake, Baker CA 20050130
Silver Lake, Baker CA 20050130
Silver Lake, Baker CA 20050130
Silver Lake, Baker CA 20050130
The
Mighty
Amargosa
springs to
life !!
3090
square mi
Historical
Max
10,600 cfs
1983
Aug 19
Las Vegas Sun 20050125
Lake Rim
Yellowstone
At
Corwin
Springs
31 days thru
2005 Feb 26
Yellowstone
At
Corwin
Springs
730 days thru
2005 Feb 26
2005 February 13. Storm Peak Lab. ctsy Dave Simeral.
2005 February 13. Storm Peak Lab.
ctsy Dave Simeral.
Drought: “Too Many Nice Days” [R.A.B.]
8 Feb 2005 2130 GMT
20050219 Phil Pasteris
SWE 12.7” 29%, ppt 36.6” 55%
Hurricane Ridge. 2005 January 25.
Ctsy Bill Baccus, NPS
Hurricane Ridge. 2005 January 25.
Ctsy Bill Baccus, NPS
2005 February 4
2005 February 4
1998-99:
1141+ inches
Snowfall,
350” depth at
Pan Dome
Lewis Lake Divide
Yellowstone Park
Snotel Site
2004-05
2001-02
2003-04
2000-01
2002-03
1999-00
June Lake Snotel.
Sasquatch
Courtesy Terry Fulp USBR / LC
Courtesy Klaus Wolter & Mike Timlin,
Climate Diagnostics Center
Recent Evolution of Equatorial Pacific
SST Departures
SST anomalies greater than or
equal to +0.5C are observed in the
Niño 4 and Niño 3.4 regions. The
warmth in the Niño 4 and 3.4
regions and lack of significant
warmth in the Niño 1+2 region are
features typical of a mid-Pacific
warm (El Niño) episode.
DJF 500 mb, Tropical Precip and SST, Hoerling and Kumar, 2002 Journal of Climate
DJF Precip
Hoerling and
Kumar
2002
Journal of
Climate
Full Disk.
Eastern
Pacific.
2005 Feb 18
Dec-Jan-Feb (thru 22nd). Reanalysis Precipitation Rate Departure from Ave, mm/day
Southern Oscillation Index
Std (Std Tahiti minus Std Darwin)
June thru November of indicated year
June thru November SOI
2
"La Nina"
1
+0.5
0.0
0
-0.5
-1
-2
"El Nino"
-3
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
Year (preceding the winter)
1990
2000
2010
Redmond & Koch,
1991, updated.
Washington
Redmond &
Koch, 1991,
updated.
ENSO
Arizona
Central
Sierra
Full Disk.
Water Vapor.
2005 Jan 18
Full Disk.
Water Vapor.
2005 Feb 27.
Composite
October-March
700 mb Departures
10 El Nino Winters
December
2004
700 mb Height
Departures
from average
January 2005
700 mb Height
Departures
from average
February 2005
Days 1-22
700 mb Height
Departures
from Average
Dec-Jan-Feb
2004-05
Thru Feb 22
700 mb Height
Departures from
Average
Dec-Jan-Feb (thru 22nd)
2004-05
200 mb
Vector Mean Wind
Dec-Jan-Feb (thru 22nd)
2004-05
200 mb
Vector Mean Wind
Departures
From Average
Dec-Jan-Feb (thru 22nd)
2004-05
Surface Air
Temperature
(Reanalysis)
Departures
From Average
Dec-Jan-Feb (thru 22nd). Reanalysis Precipitation Rate Departure from Ave, mm/day
Oregonian, 2005 Feb 21, Accuweather Forecast
October thru February Precip (inches)
Las Vegas Precipitation
October through February
10
8
6
4
2
0
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
Starting Year of Winter
1990
2000
2010
Downtown Los Angeles Precipitation. July through June
2004-05 is through Feb 26th. Mar-Jun average is 4.34"
July - June Precipitation (inches)
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
Starting Year
1980
2000
South Central Montana, 12-mo precipitation ending in January
Yellowstone Basin in WY, 12-mo precipitation ending January
2005 Feb 27 1845 GMT
2005 Feb 27 1900 GMT
Thanks a Bunch !
spares, discards,
rampant speculation
CLIMATOLOGICAL SNOWDEPTH INFORMATION
NORTHWEST WEATHER AND AVALANCHE CENTER SEATTLE WASHINGTON
DAY
15
MONTH
2
YEAR
2005 February 15
2005
WAZ012-017-018-019-025-042-ORZ011DATA IN INCHES, -99 DENOTES MISSING DATA
CURRENT
DEPTH
HURRICANE
MT BAKER
STEVENS
SNOQUALMIE
STAMPEDE
MISSION
CRYSTAL
PARADISE
WHITE PASS
TIMBERLINE
MEADOWS
17
38
42
26
15
13
20
58
8
55
30
CLIMATE
AVERAGE
92
139
95
87
93
43
61
144
56
130
110
PER CENT
OF NORMAL
18
27
44
30
16
30
33
40
14
42
27
LAST
YEAR
THRU 2004
MAX/YEAR
89
140
86
85
93
40
73
166
67
180
122
198/1999
244/1999
166/1956
168/1949
202/1949
71/1999
117/1999
264/1972
100/1999
230/2002
187/1974
THRU 2004
MIN/YEAR
22/1981
24/1977
16/1977
4/1977
0/1977
9/1976
0/1977
24/1977
0/1977
8/1977
27/1981
THIS TABLE PRODUCED ON THE 1ST AND 15TH BETWEEN 15 NOVEMBER AND 1 MAY.
AVERAGES, MAXIMUMS AND MINIMUMS EARLY IN THE SEASON MAY BE INACCURATE
DUE TO LIMITED DATA.
RECORDS BEGIN: HURRICANE 1979, MT BAKER 1926, STEVENS 1939,
SNOQUALMIE 1929, STAMPEDE 1943, MISSION RIDGE 1970,
CRYSTAL 1967, PARADISE 1926, WHITE PASS 1976,
TIMBERLINE 1973, MT HOOD MEADOWS 1974.
Composite
October-March
700 mb Departures
8 La Nina Winters
April 1
Mountain
Snowpack
Pct of average
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
NRCS Basin Maps.
Kelly Redmond.
Western Regional
Climate Center.
April 1
Mountain
Snowpack
Pct of
average
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
NRCS Basin Maps.
Kelly Redmond.
Western Regional
Climate Center.
April 1
Mountain
Snowpack
Pct of
average
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
NRCS Basin Maps.
Kelly Redmond.
Western Regional
Climate Center.