The Latino Vote 2016:
Swing States and Wild Cards
Mark Hugo Lopez
Director of Hispanic Research
About the Hispanic Trends Project
Pew Hispanic Center established in 2001; rebranded
in 2013
Funded by The Pew Charitable Trusts
A part of the Pew Research Center
Purpose is to improve understanding of the diverse
Hispanic population in the U.S. and to chronicle the
growing impact of this population on the U.S.
“Fact tank,” not a think tank
Youth, Naturalizations Main Sources of
Hispanic Eligible Voter Growth since 2012
Latinos Make Up Less than 20% of
Eligible Voters in 13 Potential Key States
Number of Latino Eligible Voters Growing Fast
In millions
27.3
23.3
Eligible Voters 19.5
16.1
13.2
Voters
11.2
7.7
9.7
8.3
11.2
7.6
3.7
4.3
4.9
1988
1992
1996
5.9
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
Notes: Eligible voters are U.S. citizens ages 18 and older. Voters are persons who say they voted.
Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of the Current Population Survey, November supplements for 1988-2012.
2016 projections are from the 2015 August supplement.
Millennials Larger Share Among Latino
Eligible Voters than Other Groups in 2016
Majority of
Hispanic Eligible Voters are U.S. Born
Foreign Born
1996
20
2nd gen
28
3rd gen
51
2000
25
26
49
2004
25
26
49
2008
26
2012
24
2016
25
27
47
31
33
45
42
Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations from the Current Population Survey, November Supplements
Voter Turnout Rates
in Presidential Elections
Percent who reported voting among U.S. citizens ages 18 and older
75
Black, non-Hispanics
66.6
70
65
64.1
White, non-Hispanics
60
55
Latinos
50
48.0
45
40
1988
46.9
Asian, non-Hispanics
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
Source: Pew Research Center tabulations from CPS November Supplements, various years
2012
In 2012, Millennial Hispanics’ Turnout
Rate Trailed that of Most Other Groups
Party Affiliation among
Latino Registered Voters
% among Latino registered voters
Democratic Party
65
60
58
56
62
67
70
63 63
57
55
49
40
25
28
25
27
23
26
25
24
22
20
27
20
Republican Party
Unauthorized
immigrant children
0
1999
2002
Source: Pew Research Center, 2014
2004
2006
2008 2009
2010
2012
2014
Which Party is
More Concerned about Latinos?
%Question:
among Latino
registered
Which
partyvoters
do you think has more concern for Hispanics/
Latinos: the
Republican Party, the Democratic Party or is there no difference?
% of Latino registered voters
Democratic
Party
55
60%
45
43
40
42
40
46
47
44
42
No difference
20
35
61
11
2002
2004
0
35
immigrant
children
8
8
6
Source: Pew Research Center, 2014
2006
45
42
2008
35
33
23
Republican
Unauthorized
Party
10
50
12
6
2010
10
10
2012
2014
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez
Director of Hispanic Research
mlopez@pewresearch.org