ITUITU-D Regional Development Forums 2010 on
NGN and Broadband (ARB, EUR & CIS Regions):
“NGN and Broadband, Opportunities and Challenges”
Challenges”
Session 4
Benefit of using appropriate Planning
Tools for Broadband and NGN
Ignat Stanev
HCTP/ITC, Bulgaria
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 4_IS - 1
Content of presentation
Broadband and NGN
Top level planning domains for broadband
access
Modeling of broadband access networks
Broadband planning tools of ITU partners
ITU validation process for planning tools
Benefit of using plannig tools
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 4_IS - 2
1
Broadband as Definition for Next
Generation Networks
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 4_IS - 3
Broadband definitions of ITU
Recommendation I.113 of the ITU Standardization Sector
defines broadband as :
Transmission capacity that is faster than primary rate
Integrated Services Digital Network (ISDN) at 1.5 or 2.0
Megabits per second (Mbits)
Related to transmission speed
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 4_IS - 4
2
Offered broadband connections by speed
Offered broadband connection –
By speed of
by price and speed
connection:
Low
speed
(256kbps – 2Mbps)
Mediumspeed
(2.5Mpbs-10Mbps)
High
speed
(10Mpbs-32Mbps)
Very-high
speed
(above35Mbps)
ITU-D Forum
Source : OECD, TeleGeography, Point Topic
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 4_IS - 5
Broadband customers (ICT market trends)
Internet users
Source :
ITU Database 2009
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 4_IS - 6
3
Broadband customers
Growth of broadband customers by region
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 4_IS - 7
Broadband customers – download speed
Average actual download speed
Source :
Akamai, Q4 2008
Average actual speed
Average advertised speed
Source :
OECD 2009
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 4_IS - 8
4
Broadband access technologies - wireline
Mbit/s
symm.
10
5.0
2.0
1.0
0.5
0.2
Upstream
(from subscriber to central office)
Loop
range
SHDSL
1
0.2
0.5
1.0
2.0
5.0
10
20
50
100
VDSL
2
3
HDSL
4
5
6
7
km
ADSL
FTTx
Downstream
asymm.
(from central office to subscriber)
Mbit/s
widl/xdsl1m
xDSL
HFC
ITU-D Forum
Power line
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 4_IS - 9
Broadband access technologies - wireless
Terrestrial
Wireless
SAT
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 4_IS - 10
5
Top Level Broadband Planning Domains
NGN requirements to the planning tools are organised by eight
planning domains derived from planner needs and
networking problems
Fixed
FixedSwitching
Switching
and
and
routing
routingplanning
planning
Fixed
FixedAccess
Access
Planning
Planning
Signaling
Signalingand
and
control
controlplanning
planning
Broadband planning
Access
Accessradio
radio
planning
planning
Business
BusinessPlanning
Planning
IT,
IT,OSS
OSSand
and
Applications
Applicationsplanning
planning
Core
Coreradio
radio
planning
planning
Transmission
Transmission
planning
planning
Guidelines for Network Planning Tools for Developing Countries
and Countries with economies in transition, ITU, Geneva, 2005
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 4_IS - 11
Fixed Access Planning
Inputs
From other
Modular Functionalities
Market Demand Forecasting
Planning Tools
Outputs
To other
Planning Tools
Access Location/Design
From Network
To Network
Configuration and Assignment
From Technology
From Data Bases
Dimensioning and Performance
and OSS
To Data Bases
Protection and Reliability
Optimisation and Sensitivity
To Planners
From Planners
Network and Equipment Costing
Requirements for the fixed access planning domain
GNPT for Developing Countries and Countries
with economies in transition, ITU, Geneva, 2005
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 4_IS - 12
6
Requirements related to NGN and
corresponding new technologies
Modeling of future NGN access network
equipment, including equipment parameters,
technological constraints, costs structures
Extending of the forecasting models and
methods due to NGN service/customer
requirements
Adapting of the calculation modules to the
NGN access network requirements
Modeling of new services and new
NGN access technologies
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 4_IS - 13
Radio Access Planning
Inputs
From other
Modular Functionalities
User and Traffic Forecasting
Planning Tools
Outputs
To other
Planning Tools
Radio Access Location/Design
From Network
To Network
and OSS
Coverage and Interference
From Technology
From Data Bases
Dimensioning and Performance
To Data Bases
Protection and Reliability
Optimisation and Sensitivity
To Planners
From Planners
Network and Equipment Costing
Requirements for the radio access domain
GNPT for Developing Countries and Countries
with economies in transition, ITU, Geneva, 2005
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 4_IS - 14
7
Requirements related to NGN and
corresponding new technologies
Modeling of new NGN services which do not fall in
the present service models and specially
multimedia service types
Modeling of future NGN access network
equipment, including equipment parameters,
technological constraints, costs structures
Extending of the forecasting models and methods
due to NGN service/customer requirements
Adapting of the calculation modules to the NGN
access network requirements
Coverage calculation methods related
to the new NGN access technologies
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 4_IS - 15
Business Planning
Inputs
From other
Planning Tools
From Network
Outputs
Modular Functionalities
Business/Network/Scenario Design
To other
Planning Tools
Market Demand Forecasting
Costs, Tariffs and Revenues
From Technology
From Data Bases
Capacity grow and Substitutions
To Network
and OSS
To Data Bases
Financial evaluations
Backward Cost Assignment
To Planners
From Planners
Scenario’s Sensitivity
Requirements for the business planning domain
GNPT for Developing Countries and Countries
with economies in transition, ITU, Geneva, 2005
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 4_IS - 16
8
Requirements related to NGN and
corresponding new technologies
Modeling of service demands characterisation
and traffics for VoIP and NGN multi-service flows
Network and systems dimensioning with the multiservice NGN criteria
Modeling of NGN systems with their
corresponding capacities, capital costs,
operational costs, lifetimes, etc.
Representation of interrelations among NGN
network subsystems, nodes and links
Pricing of new services and costing
of new NGN access technologies
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 4_IS - 17
Modeling of broadband services
Combination
of Services,
e.g. triple
play
Customer classes - customers using same
services – e.g. residential with triple play
BB
BB
BB
Service models :
Permanent
(contention ratio)
LBS
BB
BB
BB
BB
BB
Elastic
Real -Time CBR
BB
BB
BB
/ VBR
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 4_IS - 18
9
Modeling of broadband customers
Model of geographical location of customers
divided in customer classes
Digital maps – Geo
referenced and scaled
zones /areas
=>
=>
Possibility for interaction
with GIS systems
ITU-D Forum
nodes / sites
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 4_IS - 19
Forecasting of broadband customers
Trend methods Logistic model
Forecasting of :
Y
1
YWV
• Customers and penetration,
Point of inflection
YV (0)
• Service utilization,
0
T(0)
T(0) + TW V
T
• Service tariffs
Historical
data
Number of Subscribers
Number of Subscribers per Customer Class
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
BB_Bus
BB_Res
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Time
Evolution of BB customers
ITU-D Forum
Forecasted
data
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 4_IS - 20
10
Modeling of broadband access technologies
Wireless - WiMAX
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 4_IS - 21
Design and Optimization of Broadband
Access Networks
Optimization of node Locations :
E.g. optimal placement of BS
Optimization of Service areas :
E.g. optimal service areas of
MSAN
Combinatorial problem, not possible to check all possible solutions :
Heuristic algorithms
Genetic algorithms, Simulated annealing algorithms
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 4_IS - 22
11
Modelling of Radio access - coverage
Prediction Models :
Freespace
Propagation
Scattering
Diffraction
Tropospheric Effects
Reflection
Atmosph. Absorption
Loss f>10 GHz
Rain Attenuation
f>5GHz
Non-Terrain Based
• Use of "effective antenna height"
• Monotonous decline of field strength with
increasing distance to transmitter
Example: ITU-R P. 370
DTM Based
• Diffraction, shading, reflection
• Terrain elevation and land use
(morphology)
• 2D and 3D models
Examples:
"Epstein-Peterson",
"Longley&Rice", "Okumura-Hata"
ITU-D Forum
Maximum Field Strength
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 4_IS - 23
Costing of Access Networks
Optimum
Costs
Total
NODES
Exchanges
CORE
Circuits
CAPEX
Acquisition
Installation
OPEX
Maintenance
Subscribers
ACCESS
Cost components of
telecom network
ITU-D Forum
Overall economic results –
Revenues,
Cost,
Cash-flow
and Net Present Value
no. of exchanges
nodes
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 4_IS - 24
12
Planning of bradband access networks
Critical
Re-Optimization
OpEx
intensive
Critical
Network
planning
Demand
Forecast
Plan New Build
CapEx sensitive
Purchase / Build
Operate &
Maintain
BUILD
PLAN
RUN
OPEX Intensive
CAPEX Sensitive
15%
5%
9%
9%
52%
25%
85%
nodes
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 4_IS - 25
Broadband Planning Tools of ITU partners :
Planning of wireline BB access network
Market
Evolution Data
Design
Parameters/
.Rules
DSL Network
components
Economic
factors
Customers
demand
BB services
Define and
Characterize the
Market Data
VPIaccessMaker
Design DSL
Access Network
Perform Techno
Economic
Analysis
VPIaccessMaker
VPIaccessMaker
Target
Geography
BB market
DSL Network
Design
Economic Analysis
of DSL Network
• Capturing sophisticated market forecasts
• Selecting the best access technology for a
geographic region
• Designing and dimensioning optimized
access networks
• Providing detailed economic analysis based
on forecasts and infrastructure investments
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 4_IS - 26
13
Broadband Planning Tools of ITU partners :
Planning of wireline BB access network
Market
Evolution Data
Design
Parameters/
.Rules
DSL Network
components
Economic
factors
Customers
demand
BB services
Define and
Characterize the
Market Data
Design DSL
Access Network
Perform Techno
Economic
Analysis
VPIaccessMaker
VPIaccessMaker
VPIaccessMaker
Target
Geography
BB market
DSL Network
Design
Economic Analysis
of DSL Network
FTTx access network design
for outside plant :
• Capturing sophisticated market forecasts
• Determining the best locations for fiber
splitters, MSANs or DSLAMS
• Dimensioning duct and conduit capacities
• Providing detailed economic analysis based
on forecasts and infrastructure investments
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 4_IS - 27
Planning of wireless BB access network
Radio access coverage :
• Interactive microwave link engineering
• Design of radio access networks
• Planning wireless broadband networks
• Frequency allocation and coordination
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 4_IS - 28
14
ITU validation process for planning tools
Purpose: Validation of Network Planning Tools
for Developing Countries and Countries with
economies in transition
Compliance with the technical requirements
specified in the ITU Guidelines for Network
Planning Tools
Performance of the planning tool in terms of
size of the network and time to execute typical
planning cases
Creating of Set of real data reference networks
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 4_IS - 29
Benefit of using plannig tools
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 4_IS - 30
15