Yogyakarta, Indonesia, 27-29 July 2009
Dirk Wolter
CTO S&SEA Region
Alcatel-Lucent
International
Telecommunication
Union
The Challenges of Wireless Broadband
in Emerging Markets
“NGN and Broadband, Opportunities and Challenges”
Yogyakarta, Indonesia, 27 – 29 July 2009
ITU-D Regional Development Forum for
the Asia Pacific Region
Yogyakarta, Indonesia, 27-29 July 2009
Broadband in APAC
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0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Malaysia
0%
Bangladesh
India
40%
Taiwan
60%
80%
“The Digital Divide”
Japan
Australia
Household Broadband Penetration Rate (%)
20%
Philippines
Pakistan
Indonesia
Vietnam
China
Sri Lanka
Thailand
New Zealand
Singapore
100%
South Korea
Hong Kong
Broadband vs Mobile
Penetration in APAC
Source: Frost & Sullivan 5/10/2008
Mobile Penetration Rate (%)
HIGH INCOME ECONOMIES
Race to provide ever faster
fixed broadband speed;
deployment of mobile
broadband at ever lower
price
Broadband has become
an commodity, fiber
deployment, IP-based voice,
video applications and 3G
mobile use
Fixed and mobile
technologies complement
each other
The mobile phone is often
the primary internet device
Disparity between
Internet user and
internet subscriber count,
Internet connections are
often shared (eg internet
cafes)
LOW INCOME ECONOMIES
Mobile phones have become
a substitute for fixed line
and fixed broadband
access
Two different broadband trends
Source: Ovum, Apr’09
Broadband Connections by
Technology APAC (2007)
DSL is main broadband technology in APAC but remains flat over
the coming years
Wireless broadband (HSPA, WiMAX, Ev-DO) continues to grow
rapidly
Total broadband household
penetration APAC
Broadband Market Penetration
Java
data bases
web
Mobile Networks
Fixed Networks
GSM, GPRS, fixe
Internet at 50kbps
IPv4, individual office
Google, Yahoo,
Desktop PC, playstation,
cathodic tube
Mobile phone Voice/SMS
photo the Kodak/Fuji way
GPON, FTTH, ADSL2,
WiFi, Bluetooth,
3GHSPA, WiMAX
Broadband, Rich
Internet Internet IPv6,
office collaboration
security, YouTube, Ebay,
Google Maps, facebook
Blackberry, tablet PC,
PDA, GPS, laptop,
iphone, ipod, digital
photo 5Mpixels,
Nintendo DS, BlueRay
Technological Material Reality Material Reality
Base
2000
2009
Microelectronics
batteries
Elements
The Market Trends
Terminals
Applications
Networks
Java
data bases
web
Mobile Networks
Fixed Networks
Technological Material Reality Material Reality
Base
2000
2009
Microelectronics
batteries
Elements
The Market Trends
Terminals
Applications
Networks
Yogyakarta, Indonesia, 27-29 July 2009
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Broadband Wireless Evolution
and challenges in Emerging Markets
Yogyakarta, Indonesia, 27-29 July 2009
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Broadband ?
Poor competition & Offers
9
Yogyakarta, Indonesia, 27-29 July 2009
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Market demand
Yogyakarta, Indonesia, 27-29 July 2009
Fixed Infrastructure
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Yogyakarta, Indonesia, 27-29 July 2009
Mobile…
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Yogyakarta, Indonesia, 27-29 July 2009
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Mobile Broadband
14 | Technology Update | April 2009
Other subs priorities
Urban
Suburban
Telecom
Access
Today
Majority of Upcoming
Subscriber
Poverty
All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2007, XXXXX
Key challenges for the network:
TCO, Coverage, Broadband / Multimedia
Affluent urban subscribers demanding richer
services (broadband, entertainment,
personalised services)
3. Advanced / broadband users
Potential subscribers outside network reach
2. Rural
subscribers already covered but can’t
afford the service
-Potential
1. Lower ARPU, <5 US$ ARPU
Three key market segments for
growth:
Growth Areas for mobile operators
Rural
Accessibility
Real
access
gap
Arriving
WiMAX 16d
CDMA 1X
WCDMA
EDGE
15 | Technology Update | April 2009
Deployed
BWA
CDMA
GSM
TDMA
Next step
UMB
WiMAX 16m
TDD/FDD
LTE R10
FDD/TDD
4G ITU
100 Mbps
(full mobility)
1Gbps
(hotspot)
Still OFDM !
LTE R8/R9
FDD/TDD
TD-SCDMA
Evolution
Recent updates
New Proposal
HSPA+
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TDD
WiMAX 16e
Rev A/B
EVDO
HSUPA
HSDPA
TD-SCDMA
GERAN
Evolutions
Air Interface / Standards evolutions
All technologies have NOW an upgrade path to LTE
New spectrum in 2/3 GHz bands for capacity, lower sub 1 GHz bands for coverage
Re-farming legacy spectrum cellular bands for new technologies
Re-farming from Broadcast to Telco spectrum
DVBDVB-H
CDMA/EVDO
Mobile WiMAX
LTE
UMTS/ HSDPA
GSM/GPRS/
EDGE
Plan from standard perspective
450 470- 850 900 1500 1800 1900 2100 2200 2300 2500 3300 3500
700
MHz MHz MHz MHz MHz MHz MHz MHz MHz MHz MHz MHz MHz
Currently used
Flexible Spectrum Bands
CS & PS
ATM/ Mixed
ATM & IP
QPSK
BPSK
Rx Diversity
Node B +
RNC
CS & PS
ATM/ Mixed
ATM & IP
DL
Modulation
UL
Modulation
Antenna
Systems
Network
Structure
Services
Transport
Node B +
RNC
Rx Diversity
QPSK
QPSK/16QAM
5MHz
5MHz
Bandwidth
W-CDMA
W-CDMA
HSPA
Radio Access
UMTS
(R.99)
5MHz, 10MHz
sOFDMA
WiMAX
Scaleable 1.4 20MHz
OFDMA DL
SC-FDMA UL
LTE
PS only
PS but
Compatible to CS
All IP
WBS to HA
Node B + RNC
Or eHSPA Node B
Possibly All IP
BF, 2x2 MIMO
QPSK/16QAM
2x2 MIMO
QPSK/16QAM
All IP
PS Only
eNode B to ePC
2x2 - 4X4
MIMO
QPSK/16QAM
QPSK/16QAM/64 QPSK/16QAM/ QPSK/16QAM/6
QAM
64QAM
4QAM
5MHz
W-CDMA
HSPA+
Comparing Wireless Technologies
0.75 DL
0.25 UL
0.25 DL
0.1 UL
60ms
120ms
14.4 Mb/s DL
5.7Mb/s UL
2Mbps DL
768 kbps UL
UMTS
10-17
14-17
26-32
New wireless standards offer significantly better performance, thus improving
network economy and end-user experience
HSPA +
1.5 DL
0.6 UL
32-47
1.9 DL
0.8 UL
HSPA
60ms
45-55
(Erlangs/MHz/cell)
Voice Capacity
2.1 DL
1.6 UL
30ms
48 Mb/s DL
7 Mb/s UL
<10ms
173 Mb/s DL
86 Mb/s UL
(bps/Hz/cell)
28.8 / 43 Mb/s DL
11.5Mb/s UL
WiMAX
LTE
Latency
Throughput
Average Spectral
efficiency
Higher Spectrum Efficiency
Yogyakarta, Indonesia, 27-29 July 2009
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Wireless Broadband Service
A Realty Check
UMTS/HSPA and EVDO service limited to cities
Network economy challenge
Rural areas: Coverage problem
Disparity between advertised speeds and
experienced speeds
Networks - designed for mobile data – are also
used for residential broadband
Multiple Networks available but often
congested
Urban areas: Wireless Network with poor
Service Quality
Wireless Broadband
in Emerging Markets
21 | Updates to TMI | 25 February 2009
Consume on Average,
10x the Airtime as
Typical Users
VPN Users can
Airtime Exhaustion
Radio
Network
Controller
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10’s of GB per day,
Consuming 30% of
Bandwidth
P2P Users Download
Bandwidth Exhaustion
NodeB, BTS
Devices / Worms Consume
Disproportionate Amounts of
Signaling Resources
Infected / Malfunctioning
Average, cause 10X the
Signaling Load as Phones
or Aircards Used for Webbrowsing
Email Delivery Devices on
Signaling Exhaustion
Packet Core
IP Wireline Applications People Use Every Day …
Have VERY Different Impacts on the Wireless Data Network
All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Most Common Framework for
Designing/Managing/Pricing
Networks Today
New Management Paradigm:
Evolving IP Traffic Impact on
Wireless Network Resources
22 | Updates to TMI | 25 February 2009
“Cost per Bit”
(24 Hour Period)
(24 Hour Period)
“Cost per Minute”
Bandwidth
Airtime
IP Traffic Looks Very Different When Viewed by How It
Consumes Resources in the Radio Access Network
1 MB
1 MB
1 MB
1 MB
Mobile Web
P2P
Email Devices
MSN Spam
23 | Updates to TMI | 25 February 2009
Volume
Each Subscriber
Running Each
Application
Consumes
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2 hours
2 hours
30 seconds
20 minutes
Total Airtime
Consumed
1400
1500
0.3
100
Signaling Events
IP Applications Consume Widely Different Loads on the Wireless Network
Real conditions: power
and codes are shared
with Voice users, average
user application rate
Application layer (FTP),
all resources dedicated
to HSPA, average user
rate
3
Typical User
Rate-FTP
User Rate-FTP
Mbps (Typical Rate)
5.2
Cat 10/14.4 Mbps
MAC layer, single user
environment, all
User Rateresources dedicated to
4.2
MAC
HSPA, average User rate
Typical User
Rate-FTP
User Rate-FTP
User RateMAC
HSDPA
1.7
2.5
3.2
Cat 8/ 7.2 Mbps
1
1.7
Typical User
Rate-FTP
User Rate-FTP
User Rate-MAC
2.5 Cat 6/ 5.7 Mbps
Mbps (Typical Rate)
UE category
Location (lower rate at the cell edge)
Network load
“Real” speed is much below peak rate
End user performance depends on:
Cat 5/ 2 Mbps
Typical User
Rate-FTP
User Rate-FTP
0.75
1.1
1.4
Mbps (Typical Rate)
User Rate-MAC
HSUPA
HSPA Field Performances
Voice Era
Source: Unstrung
Data Era
Revenue
Cost
Traffic, Capacity
The limit of TDM Backhauling:
Voice Era
Source: Alcatel-Lucent
ma
Cost
Revenue
Capacity
Service Aware Data Era
Traffic
A cost effective Packet Transport
Conventional TDM based backhauling doesn‘t
scale for data traffic
Migration to packet transport
Backhaul to cope with traffic growth
How to optimize the network for a
better broadband experience?
Broadband Performance
Market Key Challenge #3:
How to extend coverage into rural
areas?
Accessibility
Market Key Challenge #2:
How to serve <US$5 ARPU
profitably?
Affordability
Market Key Challenge #1:
EVDO, HSPA/HSPA+, LTE, WIMAX
HOM (16QAM, 64QAM), MIMO
Optimized, “flat” architecture reduces latency
Multiple (EVDO, HSPA) and wider carrier (WiMAX, LTE)
Data centric (IP) backhauling
Broadband optimised radio networks
Low frequency bands: 450/700/850/900 MHz
Digital dividend, LTE 700 MHz
Refarming (e.g. UMTS900)
Low power consumption and alternative power solutions
Satellite backhaul or long range microwave solutions
Solutions for wider coverage in rural areas
Multi-standard solutions, converged RAN
Reduced power consumption and foot print
NGN core / IP transport (META)
Infrastructure sharing
Flat IP centric, higher capacity RAN, self optimization
Improved network economy (TCO)
Challenges of Wireless Broadband in Emerging
Markets and Technology Response
Yogyakarta, Indonesia, 27-29 July 2009
The Right Technology Mix
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Existing fixed and mobile services
Competition Environment
Infrastructure sharing
USO/USF
Regulatory environment
What frequency Band and what bandwidth profile ?
Paired (FDD) or unpaired (TDD)?
Availability of Radio Spectrum
Sufficient choice of suppliers
Compliant with Industry standards
System economy
Availability and cost of terminals
Availability and Maturity of the technology
Demand for services and applications
Performance and QoS requirements
Competitor environment
Market environment
Which Wireless Technology?
# Sites
0
Rural
2.5
5
7.5
10
12.5
15
17.5
Subscribers density (#subs/sqkm)
700 MHz
2.5 GHz
3.5 GHz
20
25
Dense Urban
22.5
27.5
ALU estimates
Assumption:
700MHz@10M
Hz profile,
2.5GHz/3.5GH
z@20MHz
profile.
700MHz more
prone to
inter-cell
interference
in high
interference
conditions
Lower frequencies require less sites, more suitable for rural environments
Different bands have limitations on amount of BW available, eg. smaller BW
typically in low frequencies, larger BW in high frequencies
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
# Sites/Sub density in Rural environm ent
Frequency Bands, Coverage and
Capacity
Density (users/sqkm)
•
•
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.5
1
DSL CO +
Wimax/FTTN
Wireless only
0.2
2
5
SD TV
10
Fibre +
FTTN
Wireless +
Satellite
7.5
12.5
HD TV
Mobile Broadband is quick and easy approach to address
broadband demand
Fixed technologies scale better for high density areas and greater
bandwidth demand
1000
800
400
200
2
8
16
64
100
Broadband
Bandwidth per user (Mbps)
BANDWIDTH vs DENSITY
Urban
Fixed (eg FTTx, DSL, GPON) and
Cellular (HSPA, LTE, EVDO, WIMAX)
Dense
Urban
Cellular technologies
at low frequency bands
(eg HSPA, LTE, EVDO)
Suburban
Rural
Satellite?
(USO funds?)
Extreme Rural
Wireless complements
Wireline
Summary - The Right Technology Mix
Yogyakarta, Indonesia, 27-29 July 2009
Conclusion
International
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“real” performance much lower than advertised peak rates.
Bottlenecks mostly in the radio access
Need to be complemented with fixed technologies (eg DSL,
PON) to meet demand in dense urban areas
Lower frequency technologies (UMTS 900, LTE 700) for rural
areas
Broadband wireless has it’s limits…
Equipment suppliers Technology provider
Operators Rollouts, service provider, tariffs
Regulator Facilitator: USF, spectrum, digital dividend
Stakeholders to improve wireless broadband service:
Wireless broadband networks often don’t cover rural areas
and are congested in dense urban areas
In Emerging markets, broadband penetration lags behind
mobile penetration, wireless broadband serves also
residential users (substitute for fixed networks)
Conclusion
Yogyakarta, Indonesia, 27-29 July 2009
Dirk Wolter
CTO S&SEA Region
Alcatel-Lucent
Dirk.Wolter@alcatel-lucent.com
International
HP: +62 816 91Telecommunication
0849
Union
Thank You!