ITU/ BDT «Training and Trials on Network
Planning Tools for Evolving Network
Architectures»
June 44-8 2007
Moscow, Russian Federation
Requirements for decision making. Strategic
Planning and Solution Mapping
Oscar González Soto
ITU Consultant Expert
Strategic Planning and Assessment
June 2007
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
slide 1
Requirements for planning
Content
• Requirements to the Network Planner
• Scope and activities
within the network planning area
• Strategic Planning and new Technologies.
• Solution mapping per scenario
June 2007
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
slide 2
Requirements for planning
Key requirements in competition
• Business Oriented Needs
– What are the best customer segments to address ?
– Which services have to be introduced through time ?
– What is the best service bundling per customer type ?
– How to maximize revenues ?
– How to reduce capital expenditure ?
– How to reduce operational expenditure ?
June 2007
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
slide 3
Requirements for planning
Key requirements in competition
• Network Oriented Needs
– How to forecast services and traffic demands?
– How many nodes to install ?
– What is best location for systems and related communication
media ?
– What is the best network architecture and routing ?
– Best balance between built and lease ?
– How to plan capacity evolution and solutions migration ?
– How to ensure SLA and protection level ?
June 2007
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
slide 4
Requirements for planning
Key requirements in competition
• Operation Support Needs
– How to evaluate alternatives for direct operation and
outsourcing ?
– How to organize the operation processes ?
– Which IT applications ensure an efficient support to
operation ?
– How to train labor force on the operational activities ?
June 2007
slide 5
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Requirements for planning
Role within the network lifecycle
Procurement &
Delivery
Network
Design
The Managed Network
Connectivity
Services
Network DB
Topology
Inventory
Infrastructure
Installation &
Commissioning
Network
Planning
Services
Management
June 2007
Network
Operation
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Maintenance
& Repair
slide 6
Requirements for planning
Scope: Mission
“Decision making on the network deployment to Optimize
Business
based on quantitative evaluation”
• Considering geo-marketing scenarios and traffic demand
• Overall vision on the network layers
• Deciding network topology, interconnection and routing
• Optimizing balance between performance/SLA and cost (CAPEX
+ OPEX)
• Considering regulatory constraints
• Anticipating business evaluation and feasibility
June 2007
slide 7
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Requirements for planning
Scope: Main supporting pillars
June 2007
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Architecture and
Technology KnowHow
Operational Research
and optimization
Economical
Engineering
Teletraffic
Methodology
Market and demand
forecasting
NETWORK PLANNING METHODOLOGY
slide 8
Requirements for planning
Scope: Main supporting pillars
Market and demand
forecasting
NETWORK PLANNING METHODOLOGY
• Historical projection: ARMA, ARIMA, etc.
• Analogy with other demands
• Evolutionary (grow lifecycle)
• Causal on originating factors
• Scenarios (alternatives and feasibility)
• Visionary (imagination)
June 2007
slide 9
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Requirements for planning
Scope: Main supporting pillars
NETWORK PLANNING METHODOLOGY
Teletraffic
Methodology
• Statistical flow modeling for arrival rates and
holding times
• Capacity models based on stochastic processes:
Analytical and Simulation
• Dimensioning based on efficiency and QoS
• Good founding on the multiple contributions
from the International community (ITC)
June 2007
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
slide 10
Requirements for planning
Scope: Main supporting pillars
Operational Research
and optimization
NETWORK PLANNING METHODOLOGY
•
Linear programming
method of “simplex”
•
Non linear modeling
procedures based on gradients
•
Flow Optimization
critical path, maximum flow, etc.
•
Combinatorial processess
•
Iterative processess
decisión by succesive comparisons
•
Heuristic procedures
hybrid with emphasis on constraints
"branch and bound”
and equipment characteristics
June 2007
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
slide 11
Requirements for planning
Scope: Typical activities (1)
– 1) Problem and Network Partitioning to reduce
complexity
– 2) Data Gathering to match real needs
– Geo- scenarios
– Existing Network & carried services
– Current Performance and waiting lists
– 3) Demand Forecasting and traffic characterization
– 4) Definition of Solution Alternatives
June 2007
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
slide 12
Requirements for planning
Scope: Typical activities (2)
– 5) Mapping best alternatives to requirements in
coverage and technologies
– 6) Nodes/Links Design, Location and Dimensioning
– 7) Network Costing in CAPEX and OPEX
– 8) Optimization for routing and deployment
– 9) Sensitivity Analysis to demand level, QOS, etc.
– 10) Documentation of Network Plan and deployment
June 2007
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
slide 13
Requirements for planning
Scope: Dimensions
•
By Time
Short, Medium,Long term
•
By Level of Detail
Strategic/Business/Network/NE
•
By Network Layer
Service layer up to Infrastructure
•
By Network Segment
Access,Metro, Core, end-to-end
•
By Technology
PSTN,SDH, Radio, ATM, IP, etc
•
By Service
POTS, Data, LL, Video, etc
By Solution
June 2007
Combination of the previous for a Project
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
slide 14
Requirements for planning
Strategic view
Key decisions to guide the overall network
structure, services and technologies:
• Role and market segments
within competition
• Main evolution for technologies
and architectures. NGN
• Solution mapping per scenario
June 2007
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
slide 15
Requirements for planning
Strategic Planning: Role in competition
• Selection of market segments: economy of scale
• “Make” versus “outsource” decision
• Policy on revenues and financing
• Partnership selection
• Priorities definition
June 2007
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
slide 16
Requirements for planning
Evolution on Technology and architecture
• Technological alternatives: Which, When and Where
• Architecture at core and access segments
• Operation support applications
• Planned evolution steps
• Convergence strategy
June 2007
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
slide 17
Requirements for planning
Solution Mapping
• Characterize variety of geo-scenarios within the country
• Define parameters for scenario and solutions
• Techno-economical evaluation to select best Cost of Ownership
June 2007
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
slide 18
Requirements for planning
Solution Mapping: Methodology
Compliance
• Services
• Capacities
• Availability
• Operational
constraints
Projects/
Geo-scenarios
Input criteria
Techno-economical
Evaluation
• Architecture
• Density
• Capital expenditure
• NPV of full costs
• Entry costs
Selected
Scenarios
Network
Models
Mapping
Technical
Solutions
June 2007
Mapping
Economical
Solutions
Results
Actions
Qualifiers
• Flexibility
• Speed to service
• Evolution
• Experience
Selected
Network
Solutions
Mapping
Qualified
Solutions
Recommendations
slide 19
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Requirements for planning
Solution Mapping: Cost Modeling
OPERATING COSTS
CAPITAL COSTS
FULL COSTS
June 2007
=
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Electronic equipment
Cables
Civil works
Licenses, permits
Installation
Replacement
Customer premises
equipment
+
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
• Rights of way
• Space rental
• Operations and
maintenance
• Power
• Management and
salaries
• Cost of inventory
• Marketing campaigns
• Overheads
slide 20
Requirements for planning
Solution Mapping: Example of Geo Scenarios
Suburban
L1
L2
Metropolitan
L5
L4
L3
Villages
Rural clusters
L1: Distance between suburban
L2: Suburban - metropolitan distance
L3: Suburban - village distance
June 2007
L4: Distance between villages
L5: Distance between rural
slide 21
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Requirements for planning
Solution Mapping:
Technological alternatives at access (Fixed)
Wireline
Narrowband
(up to 144 Kbit/s)
Direct: POTS /ISDN
Point to Multipoint
RSU: POTS /ISDN
Wireless
Satellite-Bidirectional
Multiservice DLC (FTTC)
xDSL
PLC
Access
Technologies
SDH/SONET Add Drop Mux
Wireline
FTTB/APON/EPON
Ethernet
Broadband
CATV(HFC)
WiMAX/MMDS/WIP
WLAN
Wireless
LMDS
Satellite-Bidirectional
DBS/DBT
June 2007
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
slide 22
Requirements for planning
Solution Mapping
Investment Splitting in Greenfield Access
Infrastructure (OSP) Cost
Composition
(Metropolitan 1 node Ducts+Aerial)
Network Cost Composition
for overlay PSTN and Data
(Metropolitan 1 node Ducts+ Aerial)
5% 5%
7%
4%
4%
12 %
51 %
74%
OSP
PSTN access
PSTN core
Primary
DATA Overlay
Engineering
25 %
13 %
Secondary
Civil Works
Transport
Management
June 2007
slide 23
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Requirements for planning
Solution Mapping
Investment sensitivity to density in WL Access
High density areas
300
250
Monetary units
Metrop. total
200
Metrop. infrastructure
150
Sub. infrastructure
Sub. total
100
50
2 355
2 477
2 235
2 112
1 990
1 870
1 747
1 625
1 381
1 504
1 259
1 139
894
1 016
774
529
651
0
Density (subscribers per KM²)
June 2007
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
slide 24
Requirements for Planning
Example of mapping recommendation
Multiservice
and DSLAM
xDSL
8000
High
density
1000
Switching
based
access
(RSU)
GPON/FTTH
CATV/HFC
1000
Overlap area
Medium
density
Quantitative Dif. < 10%
200
- High 200
clustering
Low
density
20
- Low
clustering
0.5
Wireless Access
Narrowband
“Qualitative assignment”
assignment”
Wireless Access
Wideband/BB/WiMAX
Fixed GSM
Satellite
Satellite
Cust./Km2
Services
&Traffic
June 2007
POTS/Fax
POTS/ISDN/Data
POTS/Data nx64
POTS/data/Video
Multimedia BB
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
slide 25
Requirements for planning
Reference benefits
• Adequate definition of customer segments, services and
business to ensure efficient operation in competition
• Anticipation of 2 to 3 years in the positive IRR
• Saving factors of 20% to 200 % by best
solution/technology mapping in the access segment
• Additional gains between 20 to 40 % by topology/routing
optimization
June 2007
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
slide 26