ITU / BDT Regional Network Planning Workshop with Tool Case Studies for the Arab Region Cairo - Egypt, 16– 16– 27 July 2006 Requirements for decision making. Strategic Planning and Solution Mapping Oscar González Soto ITU Consultant Expert Strategic Planning and Assessment July 2006 ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S. slide 1 Requirements for decision making and planning Content • Requirements to the Network Planner • Scope and activities within the network planning area • Strategic Planning and new Technologies. • Solution mapping per scenario July 2006 ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S. slide 2 Requirements for decision making and planning Key requirements in competition • Business Oriented Needs – What are the best customer segments to address ? – Which services have to be introduced through time ? – What is the best service bundling per customer type ? – How to maximize revenues ? – How to reduce capital expenditure ? – How to reduce operational expenditure ? July 2006 ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S. slide 3 Requirements for decision making and planning Key requirements in competition • Network Oriented Needs – How to forecast services and traffic demands? – How many nodes to install ? – What is best location for systems and related communication media ? – What is the best network architecture and routing ? – Best balance between built and lease ? – How to plan capacity evolution and solutions migration ? – How to ensure SLA and protection level ? July 2006 ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S. slide 4 Requirements for decision making and planning Key requirements in competition • Operation Support Needs – How to evaluate alternatives for direct operation and outsourcing ? – How to organize the operation processes ? – Which IT applications ensure an efficient support to operation ? – How to train labor force on the operational activities ? July 2006 slide 5 ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S. Requirements for decision making and planning Role within the network lifecycle Procurement & Delivery Network Design The Managed Network Network DB Connectivity Services Topology Inventory Infrastructure Installation & Commissioning Network Planning Services Management July 2006 Network Operation ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S. Maintenance & Repair slide 6 Requirements for decision making and planning Scope: Mission “Decision making on the network deployment to Optimize Business based on quantitative evaluation” • Considering geo-marketing scenarios and traffic demand • Overall vision on the network layers • Deciding network topology, interconnection and routing • Optimizing balance between performance/SLA and cost (CAPEX + OPEX) • Considering regulatory constraints • Anticipating business evaluation and feasibility July 2006 slide 7 ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S. Requirements for decision making and planning Scope: Main supporting pillars July 2006 ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S. Architecture and Technology KnowHow Operational Research and optimization Economical Engineering Teletraffic Methodology Market and demand forecasting NETWORK PLANNING METHODOLOGY slide 8 Requirements for decision making and planning Scope: Main supporting pillars Market and demand forecasting NETWORK PLANNING METHODOLOGY • Historical projection: ARMA, ARIMA, etc. • Analogy with other demands • Evolutionary (grow lifecycle) • Causal on originating factors • Scenarios (alternatives and feasibility) • Visionary (imagination) July 2006 slide 9 ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S. Requirements for decision making and planning Scope: Main supporting pillars NETWORK PLANNING METHODOLOGY Teletraffic Methodology • Statistical flow modeling for arrival rates and holding times • Capacity models based on stochastic processes: Analytical and Simulation • Dimensioning based on efficiency and QoS • Good founding on the multiple contributions from the International community (ITC) July 2006 ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S. slide 10 Requirements for decision making and planning Scope: Main supporting pillars Operational Research and optimization NETWORK PLANNING METHODOLOGY • Linear programming method of “simplex” • Non linear modeling procedures based on gradients • Flow Optimization critical path, maximum flow, etc. • Combinatorial processess • Iterative processess decisión by succesive comparisons • Heuristic procedures hybrid with emphasis on constraints "branch and bound” and equipment characteristics July 2006 ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S. slide 11 Requirements for decision making and planning Scope: Typical activities (1) – 1) Problem and Network Partitioning to reduce complexity – 2) Data Gathering to match real needs – Geo- scenarios – Existing Network & carried services – Current Performance and waiting lists – 3) Demand Forecasting and traffic characterization – 4) Definition of Solution Alternatives July 2006 ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S. slide 12 Requirements for decision making and planning Scope: Typical activities (2) – 5) Mapping best alternatives to requirements in coverage and technologies – 6) Nodes/Links Design, Location and Dimensioning – 7) Network Costing in CAPEX and OPEX – 8) Optimization for routing and deployment – 9) Sensitivity Analysis to demand level, QOS, etc. – 10) Documentation of Network Plan and deployment July 2006 ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S. slide 13 Requirements for decision making and planning Scope: Dimensions • By Time Short, Medium,Long term • By Level of Detail Strategic/Business/Network/NE • By Network Layer Service layer up to Infrastructure • By Network Segment Access,Metro, Core, end-to-end • By Technology PSTN,SDH, Radio, ATM, IP, etc • By Service POTS, Data, LL, Video, etc By Solution July 2006 Combination of the previous for a Project ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S. slide 14 Requirements for decision making and planning Strategic view Key decisions to guide the overall network structure, services and technologies: • Role and market segments within competition • Main evolution for technologies and architectures. NGN • Solution mapping per scenario July 2006 ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S. slide 15 Requirements for decision making and planning Strategic Planning: Role in competition • Selection of market segments: economy of scale • “Make” versus “outsource” decision • Policy on revenues and financing • Partnership selection • Priorities definition July 2006 ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S. slide 16 Requirements for decision making and planning : Evolution on Technology and architecture • Technological alternatives: Which, When and Where • Architecture at core and access segments • Operation support applications • Planned evolution steps • Convergence strategy July 2006 ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S. slide 17 Requirements for decision making and planning : Solution Mapping • Characterize variety of geo-scenarios within the country • Define parameters for scenario and solutions • Techno-economical evaluation to select best Cost of Ownership July 2006 ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S. slide 18 Requirements for decision making and planning Solution Mapping: Methodology Compliance • Services • Capacities • Availability • Operational constraints Projects/ Geo-scenarios Input criteria Techno-economical Evaluation • Architecture • Density • Capital expenditure • NPV of full costs • Entry costs Selected Scenarios Network Models Mapping Technical Solutions July 2006 Mapping Economical Solutions Results Qualifiers • Flexibility • Speed to service • Evolution • Experience Actions Selected Network Solutions Mapping Qualified Solutions Recommendations ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S. slide 19 Requirements for decision making and planning Solution Mapping: Cost Modeling OPERATING COSTS CAPITAL COSTS FULL COSTS July 2006 = • • • • • • • Electronic equipment Cables Civil works Licenses, permits Installation Replacement Customer premises equipment + ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S. • Rights of way • Space rental • Operations and maintenance • Power • Management and salaries • Cost of inventory • Marketing campaigns • Overheads slide 20 Requirements for decision making and planning Solution Mapping: Example of Geo Scenarios Suburban L1 L2 Metropolitan L5 L4 L3 Villages Rural clusters L1: Distance between suburban L2: Suburban - metropolitan distance L3: Suburban - village distance July 2006 L4: Distance between villages L5: Distance between rural slide 21 ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S. Requirements for planning: Solution Mapping Technological alternatives at access (Fixed) Wireline Narrowband (up to 144 Kbit/s) Direct: POTS /ISDN Point to Multipoint Wireless RSU: POTS /ISDN Satellite-Bidirectional Multiservice DLC (FTTC) xDSL PLC Access Technologies Wireline SDH/SONET Add Drop Mux FTTB/APON/EPON Ethernet Broadband CATV(HFC) WiMAX/MMDS/WIP WLAN Wireless LMDS Satellite-Bidirectional DBS/DBT July 2006 ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S. slide 22 Requirements for planning: Solution Mapping Investment Splitting in Greenfield Access Network Cost Composition for overlay PSTN and Data (Metropolitan 1 node Ducts+ Aerial) 4% Infrastructure (OSP) Cost Composition (Metropolitan 1 node Ducts+Aerial) 5% 5% 4% 12 % 51 % 74% OSP PSTN access 25 % 13 % Primary Secondary Civil Works PSTN core DATA Overlay Engineering Management Transport July 2006 7% slide 23 ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S. Requirements for planning: Solution Mapping Investment sensitivity to density in WL Access High density areas 300 Monetary units 250 Metrop. total 200 Metrop. infrastructure 150 Sub. infrastructure Sub. total 100 50 2 355 2 477 2 235 2 112 1 990 1 870 1 747 1 625 1 381 1 504 1 259 1 139 894 1 016 774 651 529 0 Density (subscribers per KM²) July 2006 ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S. slide 24 Requirements for planning: planning: Solution Mapping Solution selection per customer density 5 000 4 500 4 000 3 500 Monetary 3 000 units 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 0 Technology A Technology B Technology C 7 10 13 17 20 23 27 30 33 37 40 HDSL with LLU access Density of lines (2Mbps per km^2) July 2006 slide 25 ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S. Requirements for planning: planning: Solution Mapping TechnoTechno-economical Recommendation Multiservice and DSLAM xDSL 8000 High density 1000 Switching based access (RSU) 1000 Quantitative Dif. < 10% 200 Low density 20 - Low clustering 0.5 CATV/HFC Overlap area Medium density - High 200 clustering APON/FTTH Wireless Access Narrowband “Qualitative assignment” assignment” Wireless Access Wideband/BB Fixed GSM Satellite Satellite Cust./Km2 Services &Traffic July 2006 POTS/Fax POTS/ISDN/Data POTS/Data nx64 POTS/data/Video ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S. Multimedia BB slide 26 Requirements for decision making and planning Reference benefits • Adequate definition of customer segments, services and business to ensure efficient operation in competition • Anticipation of 2 to 3 years in the positive IRR • Saving factors of 20% to 200 % by best solution/technology mapping in the access segment • Additional gains between 20 to 40 % by topology/routing optimization July 2006 ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S. slide 27