ITU Regional Seminar on
Fixed Mobile Convergence and new
Network Architecture for Arab Region
(Tunis, 21-24 Nov. 2005)
WIRELESS ACCESS:
the CONVERGENCE DIGITAL BRIDGE:
A REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE
Prof. Ibrahim Kadi, Ph.D., SM-IEEE
Senior Advisor, CITC, Saudi Arabia
ikadi@citc.gov.sa
www.citc.gov.sa
Introduction: ICT Growth
Digital Divide
Universal Access / Universal Service
Convergence & Broadband
Wireless Access Solutions
Conclusions
•
www.citc.gov.s
Ibrahim KADI
[2]
1
(Million)
!
"
#$%
(Source: ITU)
PC
Fixed
•
www.citc.gov.s
Internet
[3]
Ibrahim KADI
%&
' (!
,"! !
!
•
www.citc.gov.s
Ibrahim KADI
)*&! +
,--.
"# $$
[4]
2
! 1
!
"# 2 3 )/
( / !
100%
-
/(
80%
-
##
60%
##
40%
0
/(
20%
(Source: ITU)
0%
Popultn. Phone
•
www.citc.gov.s
Mobile Internet
GDP
[5]
Ibrahim KADI
!
"#
• WSIS 1st Phase (Geneva, 2003) called for “Composite ICT
Development Index”.
• Joint Orbicom-ITU project 2003-2005
• Report Published in October 2005:
“From the Digital Divide to DIGITAL OPPORTUNITIES –
Measuring Infostates for Development”
• Based on the Infostate conceptual framework,
Infodensity = sum of all ICT stocks (capital and labor)
Info-use = consumption flows of ICTs/period
INFOSTATE
•
www.citc.gov.s
Ibrahim KADI
[6]
3
'
!
# 45
# /!
INFOSTATE
INFODENSITY
Networks (Infrastructure)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
INFOINFO-USE
Uptake
Main fixed lines per 100 inhabitants
Waiting lines/mainlines
Digital lines/mainlines
Cell phones per 100 inhabitants
Cable TV subs. per 100 households
Internet hosts per 1,000 inhabitants
Secure servers/Internet hosts
International bandwidth (Kbs / inhab.)
• TV equipped households per 100
households (HH)
• Resid. phone lines per 100 HH
• PCs per 100 inhabitants
• Internet users per 100 inhabitants
Intensity
• Broadband users/Internet users
• International outgoing telephone
traffic minutes per capita
• International incoming telephone
traffic minutes per capita
Skills (Human Resources)
- Adult Literacy Rates
- Gross Enrolment Ratios
- Secondary Education
•
- Primary Ed.
- Tertiary Ed.
[7]
Ibrahim KADI
www.citc.gov.s
' (!
250
"# 6 78
, )
Infostate (2003)
221
255
200
144
150
103 106
source: ITU-ORBICOM, 2005)
84
Saudi
26 29
66 76
Jordan
50
58
50 52
40 43 44
Oman
100
77
69
127
113 127
0
Denmark
34
Developed
42
Qatar
44
Bahrain
51
UAE
53
World
Ibrahim KADI
62
Kuwait
85
Lebanon
www.citc.gov.s
90
Tunisia
•
Egypt
97
all Arab
98
Morocco
111 102
Syria
Algeria
Sudan
Yemen
114
1
[8]
4
300
"# 6
7
!
Network Index (2003)
300
200
161
source: ITU-ORBICOM, 2005)
120 125
•
85
78
Qatar
UA E
W orld
Kuwait
B ahrain
2
Mobile Penetration (subs. / 100 inhabitants)
July 2005
78
source: EMC-DATABASE, CITC
45
37
35
35
32
25
25
9
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Rest
13
Egypt
Mauritania
15
Palestine
23 22
Arab
Algeria
Lebanon
Ibrahim KADI
World
Morocco
Jordan
Oman
Saudi Ar.
Tunis
Devel'd
Qatar
Kuwait
UAE
Bahrain
www.citc.gov.s
Lebanon
+1 !
47
•
86
[9]
,!
90
64 69
Ibrahim KADI
www.citc.gov.s
99
Saudi Arabia
Jordan
Oman
M orocco
Tunisia
Algeria
Syria
Egypt
Sudan
0
Arab
8
49
34 42
25
22
21
21
13 14 14
Yemen
100
D eveloped
!
[ 10 ]
5
,!
!
"#
60
Internet Users per 100 inhabitants (2004)
53.8
50
40
source: Arab Advisors, ITU, CITC, 2005
30
24.7 23.9
17.8
15.8
20
13.8
10.610.1
6.7
10
3.4
3.4 3.0
0
Rest
[ 11 ]
Ibrahim KADI
www.citc.gov.s
Yemen
1.5 1.5 1.0
Morocco
Arab
Libya
Egypt
Syria
Oman
2.0 1.7
Algeria
3.5
Iraq
4.4 4.1
Tunisia
Palestine
Jordan
Devlp'ing
Saudi Ar.
Qatar
World
Bahrain
Lebanon
UAE
Kuwait
Devlp'd
•
5.9 5.3
% !# ! # !
(&/ !
13
12.9
Broadband Subscribers per 100 inhabitants
(2004)
12
11
10
9
8
source: ITU, CITC, 2005
7
6
5
4
2.5
2.2
3
1.5
0.8
2
0.7
1
0.1 0.05
0
Rest
Morocco
0.1
Saudi Ar.
0.2
Algeria
0.2
Jordan
0.5
Arab
Ibrahim KADI
0.7
Egypt
Devlp'ing
Kuwait
UAE
Lebanon
www.citc.gov.s
2.2
Bahrain
Qatar
World
Devlp'd
•
2.2
[ 12 ]
6
84 #
!
Fixed Telephone lines per 100 inhabitants
60
50
40
57
World
1330
20
tim
es
m 10
ore
0
Developed
11
tim es
m ore
[ 13 ]
Ibrahim KADI
!
2004
2000
1996
(Source: ITU 2005)
%&
/
Mobile Subscribers per 100 inhabitants
8,
)9
77
27 4
10
19
2
301
4
13
3
www.citc.gov.s
100
Developing
19
1992
•
54
39
times
m ore
0.4
tim es
more
0.1
0.06
World
0.01
Developing
(Source: ITU 2005)
2004
Ibrahim KADI
2000
www.citc.gov.s
1996
1992
•
Developed
[ 14 ]
7
!6 !
:
100
54
Inteernet Users per 100 inhabitants
10
14
2.2
tim es
World
0.5
Developed
0.1
m ore
0.01
0.03
Developing
Ibrahim KADI
(Source: ITU 2005)
2004
www.citc.gov.s
2000
1996
1992
•
tim es
m ore
6.7
73
1
8
[ 15 ]
Introduction: ICT Growth
Digital Divide
Universal Access / Universal Service
Convergence & Broadband
Wireless Access Solutions
Conclusions
•
www.citc.gov.s
Ibrahim KADI
[ 16 ]
8
; !
"
!
"/
Universal Service (US): implies, literally, 100% of the target
population (e.g., every household in the entire country) subscribes
to/uses a particular service (e.g., telephone, Data, Broadband)
Universal Access (UA): a service is “accessible” to 100% of the
population, i.e., they have the opportunity to utilize it.
UA is a goal for providing reasonable access to basic services
In the Developed World: US = Anytime, Anywhere Access
In many Developing Countries the scope of UA now includes
access to Internet and not only basic phone services
Universal Access should also address Telecom services at public
facilities (e.g.; Schools, Hospitals)
•
7
[ 17 ]
Ibrahim KADI
www.citc.gov.s
#'
"
!
"/
)5,' /!
• A geographically diverse population, with a significant
percentage still living in rural or remote areas
• Low literacy rates compared to other regions of the world
• Low per capita GDP and disposable income
• Computer literacy is generally low
• Fixed teledensity is low, but internet usage is much lower.
Mobile services have made some progress
• Internet usage is growing in large urban MEA cities, But
there is still a large disparity between Urban and Rural areas.
• Other (more serious) forms of Digital Divide:
– Rural
Urban
- Poor
Wealthy
– Gender (Female
Male)
- illiterate
Educated
•
www.citc.gov.s
Ibrahim KADI
[ 18 ]
9
5 ,6
private
service
today
!
: )/
market
efficiency
gap
Profitable;
( / !
SUSTAINABLE
UNECONOMIC SUSTAINABLE
GAP
ECONOMIC
GAP
Income / revenues
public commercially
feasible
access
Marginally Not
today No regulatory
Profitable
intervention or
subsidy
Unprofitable
Requires
initial subsidy to make
long-term sustainable
Requires
on-going
subsidies to make
long-term sustainable
Remoteness (Lower Population density) / Cost
•
www.citc.gov.s
Ibrahim KADI
[ 19 ]
Introduction: ICT Growth
Digital Divide
Universal Access / Universal Service
Convergence & Broadband
Wireless Access Solutions
Conclusions
•
www.citc.gov.s
Ibrahim KADI
[ 20 ]
10
"
/
'7
Convergence is multi-dimensional:
Industry: telecom, IT, Media
Service: fixed, mobile, data, internet
Technology: wireless /wireline, IP-based NGN
Device: Telephone, computer, TV / Radio
Wireless Data Com
Mobile Telecom
1G
(voice)
•
www.citc.gov.s
WPAN
2G
(voice +
some data)
WLAN
(Wifi)
3G
(mostly
Data)
WMAN
(WiMax)
[ 21 ]
Ibrahim KADI
( !/
'
"
/
Developed Countries
• Need to move towards Next Generation Networks (NGN)
• But, legacy investments must be protected….
• Large installed PSTN customer base need to be migrated to
broadband access, using either fixed or mobile, or both.
• Mature mobile population will evolve to high speed (3G / HSDPA)
technology for broadband access to NGN platforms
Developing Countries
• Clearly identified need to move towards NGN
• Legacy investments are much less of an issue
• Can “leap frog” from outdated technology to NGN and benefit
from the experienced gained by early adopters
•
www.citc.gov.s
Ibrahim KADI
[ 22 ]
11
; !
!# ! #.
Broadband (BB) is a connection whose combined capacity, both
up and down, sums to 256 Kbp/s or higher (ITU Definition)
The definition of Broadband is a moving target / debatable:
– Different meaning/rates to different countries: USA (200 kb/s)
OECD (256Kb/s), Sweden (0.5-5 Mb/s)
– Data rates evolve with time / technology / market demand
Driving forces behind its materialization
– Market demands: internet / powerful computers / info. Age
– dramatic progress in data coding and compression techniques
and capabilities of microprocessor
160 Mill. BB subs (2004): Africa (0.04%), Arab (0.8%)
The poor (Africa/Arab) pay more for less broadband
•
www.citc.gov.s
;
[ 23 ]
Ibrahim KADI
,//
6
'
Wireless Access systems : are broadband [> 256 Kb/s]
radio systems that may be deployed either indoors or
outdoors. They include:
– Fixed wireless access (FWA): Wireless access application in
which the location of the end-user termination and the
network access point to be connected to the end-user are fixed.
– Mobile wireless access (MWA): Wireless access application
in which the location of the end-user termination is mobile.
– Nomadic wireless access (NWA): Wireless access application
in which the location of the end-user termination may be in
different places but it must be stationary while in use.
•
www.citc.gov.s
Ibrahim KADI
[ 24 ]
17
12
%%6 !
((! '# "
/&
• Debate among developing countries about broadband:
– BB still a luxury affordable only in rich countries
– Concentrate on rolling out of basic services
– Leapfrogging directly to BB neither realistic nor make sense
• Digital Divide / Present state of telecom: not encouraging
• But realities dictate:
– basic service to deal with Universal Service Obligations
(USO) and digital divide, and
– BB necessary to maintain competitiveness in global economy
• Mission impossible!
•
[ 25 ]
Ibrahim KADI
www.citc.gov.s
&
!
#
((!
• Mission seems not so impossible
– Deploy leading edge but obtainable standard technology,
(WiMax, IMT-2000 etc)
– Take advantage of Fixed Wireless Convergence (FMC)
• Low Teledensity in developing countries
– roll out of wired access network needs huge investment
– installation cumbersome / awfully slow
• Broadband Wireless Access – a promising option:
– Fast to install / cost-effective in investment / operation
– Coverage faster to extend to bridge digital divide
– high speed capability / multi services broadband services
•
www.citc.gov.s
Ibrahim KADI
[ 26 ]
13
% !# ! # ,//
WIRE LINE:
– DSL
- Cable modems
/
- Fiber
WIRELESS:
WIRELESS
– Mobile wireless networks (3G)
– Fixed wireless ( Wi-Fi, WiMAX)
SATELLITE:
SATELLITE VSAT & Mobile Satellite (e.g. Thuraya)
FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES :
– e.g.; Broadband Over Power Line (BPL), PLC, ……
New Wireless technologies cheaper to deploy
than legacy wire line networks
•
Ibrahim KADI
www.citc.gov.s
;
-
[ 27 ]
% !# ! # ,//
Digital Subscriber Line (DSL):
(DSL)
– Dominant BB Access Tech. Today (60%), mostly in developed countries,
– Issues for developing countries:
• Unavailability or poor quality of copper wire local loops
• Attainable speeds decrease with distance from exchange: good for
condensed areas (Cairo, Bahrain)
• Poor performance: high ambient temperature, and longer typical
distances of local loops in rural & suburban areas (Riyadh, Khartoom)
Cable (CATV) modems:
– Existing TV cable infrastructure, mostly in N. America, and Europe,
– Huge investment – not cost effective for developing countries
Fiber: to the home/premises (FTTH / FTTP), Fiber to the Zone
-Best technology: highest rate, best performance, … , But
-Expensive, not cost effective, not an option for rural access
-Ideal solution for backbone (e.g., electric grids fiber)
•
www.citc.gov.s
Ibrahim KADI
[ 28 ]
14
% !# ! # "
-
1% -2
• Access BPL provides high speed data connection/services to
users over existing power lines
• “In House” BPL allows for networking of electronic devices
over existing wiring in the home
• Developed Countries: Still emerging -- some utilities, hotel
operators and others are deploying experimental and
operational BPL systems.
• Developing Countries: Promising Option for BB in Urban
Rural communities (if connected to electric power grids)
• Electric Power Grids offer other US/UA communication
opportunities (yet another type of convergence): Optical
fiber over Transmission towers, Right of Way (RoW)
•
www.citc.gov.s
[ 29 ]
Ibrahim KADI
&!
&//
Fastest growing service in history
2 Billion users mostly 2G-GSM (1.5 B. in 200+ countries)
2G: mainly voice, limited data rates
2.5G
higher rates: GPRS (171 Kb/s), EDGE (384 Kb/s)
3G (IMT2000) delivers broadband: up to 2 Mbp/s, HSDPA:
downlink rates up to 14 Mbp/s
2.5G / 3G coverage is still patchy, requires major investments
Business Case for 3G deployment in developing countries:
• UNCERTAIN in Urban areas
• NEGATIVE for Rural
•
www.citc.gov.s
Ibrahim KADI
[ 30 ]
15
& ! ' %; ,
"
&
Attractive for Rural Access and Universal Service
– Open Standard, Unique economies of scale, Harmonized
spectrum worldwide
– Pervasive Coverage (75% of population in developing world)
– Issue: Affordability (high prices & low disposable income)
Proposed Solutions for Rural Areas:
– “cost-based-pricing” instead of conventional “market pricing”
used across whole service areas (Urban & Rural)
– Reduce operator cost in Rural Areas: licenses fees, free spectrum,
free access to public lands and RoW
– Lower price differentials: pre-paid vs. post-paid, off-net vs. on-net
•
www.citc.gov.s
Ibrahim KADI
[ 31 ]
Introduction: ICT Growth
Digital Divide
Universal Access / Universal Service
Convergence & Broadband
Wireless Access Solutions
Conclusions
•
www.citc.gov.s
Ibrahim KADI
[ 32 ]
16
% !# ! # ;
,//
! #! #
IEEE
ETSI
WAN
IEEE 802.20
(proposed)
WiMAX*
IEEE 802.16
WirelessMAN
IEEE 802.11
WirelessLAN
WiFi*
IEEE 802.15
Bluetooth
•
MAN
(30 km)
LAN
(100 m)
HiperLAN/2
RLAN
PAN
ETSI
BRAN
(10 m)
%; ,
•
HiperMAN &
HiperAccess
[ 33 ]
Ibrahim KADI
www.citc.gov.s
Technology
UMTS, EDGE
(GSM)
(> 30 km)
! #! #
Standard
Usage
Throughput
UWB
IEEE 802.15
Personal
Area Net.
(PAN)
110-480 Mbps
Up to 10
meter
4 to 10 GHz
WiFi and
HyperLAN 2
IEEE 802.11
& ETSI
Standard
Radio LAN
with other
FWA
Up to 54 Mbps
Up to 100
meter
900 MHz
2.4 GHz
5-5.8 GHz
WiMax
IEEE
802.11d and
802.11e
Radio MAN
(fixed &
mobile)
Up to 75 Mbp/s
on 20 MHz and
up to 30 Mb/s
for mobility
7-10 km
(fixed)
2-5 km
(mobile)
2.1, 2.3, 2.5-2.6
& 3.5 GHz
3G Mobile
(UMTS &
CDMA 2000)
IMT - 2000
Cellular
Wireless
Wide Area
Network
Up to 2 Mb/s
2-8 km
800-900 MHz,
1.7, 1.8, 1.9, 2.1,
2.3, 2.8 GHz
www.citc.gov.s
Ibrahim KADI
Range
Frequency
[ 34 ]
17
%; ,
! #! #
Volume
)
& 6
<
..
..
1980s
•
www.citc.gov.s
1990s
[ 35 ]
Ibrahim KADI
/ &(
Single Most Critical
Growth/Performance
2010
2000
Issue
!
in
Mobile
&
BWA
Limited Allocations for Wireless Access and Mobile:
Broadcasting Allocated Most of Spectrum Below 1 GHz
GSM Spectrum 890-960 MHz, 1800 MHz , 1900 MHz
New 3G Allocations (160 + 200MHz) - WARC 2000, Istanbul
High Spectrum License Costs
Basic Law of Economics: Limited Supply, Growing Demand
Basis for any Meaningful Pricing Strategy:
- Set Tariffs / Air Time Cost as per Spectrum Used
•
www.citc.gov.s
Ibrahim KADI
[ 36 ]
18
/ &(
/
/!
Critical For Any Wireless Access System Deployment
Availability / Flexibility
Major Impact On Data Rates (Broadband) & Available services
Major Impact On Cost, and Affordability
Need to maximize Spectrum Utilization Efficiency
Lower frequencies Better for universal service in rural areas :
– better propagation
wider coverage / lower cost
– limited bandwidth
lower data rates
– Good Example: Russia 450 MHz deployment
Many developing countries have 450MHz available for licensing
– Rural BWA fits perfectly in the NMT 450 spectrum band
•
www.citc.gov.s
[ 37 ]
Ibrahim KADI
/ &( 9
%
'
&! +
! # -(
#
6
Command and Control Model:
– Strict operating parameters originally designed for the previous generation of
inflexible radio system designs
– Requires constant intervention from the regulator which could slow innovation
and market development
Exclusive Model:
– Exclusive licenses based on geography and spectrum blocks
– Provides the greatest level of investment certainty
– Need to provide incentives to encourage network build out.
Unlicensed or License-exempt Model
– Standardized equipment and mass production on a global standard
– could lead to overcrowding and resulting interference
– Careful application of power limits and sharing rules should be considered
•
www.citc.gov.s
Ibrahim KADI
[ 38 ]
19
/ &(
!! (
%
(
%; , 1
9
!/ /
=2
1. Facilitate deployment of innovative broadband technologies
2. Transparency:
3. Technology and service neutrality
4. Flexible use measures
5. Ensure affordability;
Reasonable spectrum fees for US/UA BWA
6. Optimize spectrum availability on a timely basis
7. Manage spectrum efficiently
8. Ensure a level playing field
9. Harmonize international and regional practices and standards
10. Adopt a broad approach to promoting broadband access: incl. other
reg. instruments (competition, infrastructure, USO) and incentives
source: GSR Nov. 2005
•
www.citc.gov.s
Ibrahim KADI
[ 39 ]
Introduction: ICT Growth
Digital Divide
Universal Access / Universal Service
Convergence & Broadband
Wireless Access Solutions
Conclusions
•
www.citc.gov.s
Ibrahim KADI
[ 40 ]
20
% !# ! #6 %
'
• Broadband is an accelerator of social and economic development:
–
–
–
–
–
Making the power of communications accessible to all
Enhancing productivity, enabling tele-working
Offering new tools for public safety and homeland security
Improving public health through telemedicine and digital hospitals
Educational tools in classrooms & distance learning capabilities
• Broadband applications enable economic & social benefits:
- Public safety and national security
- Telemedicine
- Tele-work
- E-Government / commerce
- Emergency Services
- Utility applications
- Distance learning/educational tools
- Accessible communications for persons with disabilities
•
www.citc.gov.s
%%
Ibrahim KADI
#"
& ! +5
/&
"
(
[ 41 ]
9 *&
&
• Broadband Access Provision:
– Little incentive to deploy broadband networks: low demand /
limited competition / limited funds
– Lack of promoting regulatory framework
• Connectivity:
– Lack of backbone networks
– Incumbent ownership of existing backbone networks
– Limited international connectivity and local hosting
• Demand:
– Limited consumer demand: high prices / voice emphasis /
limited local content
– Limited co-ordination/promotion of broadband benefits
•
www.citc.gov.s
Ibrahim KADI
[ 42 ]
21
% !# ! # 9
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
&!
+
Facilitate market entry by all potential broadband providers
Remove barriers that impede BB infrastructure investment
Technology neutraliy and free access to spectrum
Encourage infrastructure investment, with incentives as needed
Coordinate with other sectors to access alternative fiber
backbones connectivity (e.g.; electric grids, railways)
Focus on wireless access technologies (BWA)
Encourage small-scale market operation, esp. for rural areas
Drive BB demand from government and public service and
promote commercial content / application development
Raise BB awareness among all key stakeholders
Develop mechanisms to lower costs end-user terminals
www.citc.gov.s
Ibrahim KADI
[ 43 ]
/&
• Digital Divide is multi-dimensional: between countries and
within countries (Rural vs. Urban, Poor / Rich ….. etc.)
• A well developed Telecom infrastructure (and broadband)
contribute positively to GDP growth
• The Arab / Africa Region needs an “economical” solution for
driving Universal Coverage.
• BWA is the best option for Universal Service / Access for
both urban and rural communities
• Mobile systems and BWA (particularly WiMax at sub 1 GHz
band) offers good solutions for Low Cost Voice coupled with
Broadband Data speeds
•
www.citc.gov.s
Ibrahim KADI
[ 44 ]
22
Acknowledgements to:
ITU &TUNISI TELECOM
Seminar Organizers (Staff)
$$$ ! # > )
7 $$?
?
ikadi@citc.gov.sa
•
www.citc.gov.s
Ibrahim KADI
[ 45 ]
23