ITU / BDT workshop
Warsaw, Poland,
6 – 10 October 2003
Network Planning
Lecture NP
NP--2.2
Role of Network Planning in the
current Telecom scenario
October 6 -10
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Lecture NP - 2.2 - slide 1
BDT workshop on Network Planning
Module 1: Introduction and Experiences in the Region
Module 2
Role of Network Planning in the current Telecom scenario
Module 3
Integrated Planning Process
Module 4
Specific Network Planning per Layer
Module 5
Supporting Network Planning Tools
October 6 -10
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Lecture NP - 2.2 - slide 2
Content Chapter 2.2
• Requirements to the Network Planner
• Scope and activities
within the network planning area
• Strategic Planning and new Technologies.
• Solution mapping per scenario
October 6 -10
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Lecture NP - 2.2 - slide 3
Network Planning
Key requirements in competition
•
Business Oriented Needs
– What are the best customer segments to address ?
– Which services have to be introduced through time ?
– What is the best service bundling per customer type ?
– How to maximize revenues ?
– How to reduce capital expenditure ?
– How to reduce operational expenditure ?
October 6 -10
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Lecture NP - 2.2 - slide 4
Network Planning
Key requirements in competition
• Network Oriented Needs
– How to forecast services and traffic demands?
– How many nodes to install ?
– What is best location for systems and related
communication media ?
– What is the best network architecture and routing ?
– Best balance between built and lease ?
– How to plan capacity evolution and solutions migration ?
– How to ensure SLA and protection level ?
October 6 -10
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Lecture NP - 2.2 - slide 5
Network Planning
Key requirements in competition
• Operation Support Needs
–
How to evaluate alternatives for direct operation and
outsourcing ?
– How to organize the operation processes ?
– Which IT applications ensure an efficient support to
operation ?
– How to train labor force on the operational activities ?
October 6 -10
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Lecture NP - 2.2 - slide 6
Network Planning
Role within the network lifecycle
Procurement &
Delivery
Network
Design
The Managed Network
Connectivity Services
Network DB
Topology
Inventory
Infrastructure
Installation &
Commissioning
Network
Planning
Services
Management
October 6 -10
Network
Operation
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Maintenance
& Repair
Lecture NP - 2.2 - slide 7
Network Planning
Scope: Mission
“Decision making on the network deployment to Optimize
Business
based on quantitative evaluation”
• Considering geo-marketing scenarios and traffic demand
• Overall vision on the network layers
• Deciding network topology, interconnection and routing
• Optimizing balance between performance/SLA and cost (CAPEX
+ OPEX)
• Considering regulatory constraints
• Anticipating business evaluation and feasibility
October 6 -10
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Lecture NP - 2.2 - slide 8
Network Planning
Scope: Main supporting pillars
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
October 6 -10
Architecture and
Technology KnowHow
Operational Research
and optimization
Economical
Engineering
Teletraffic
Methodology
Market and demand
forecasting
NETWORK PLANNING METHODOLOGY
Lecture NP - 2.2 - slide 9
Network Planning
Scope: Main supporting pillars
Market and demand
forecasting
NETWORK PLANNING METHODOLOGY
• Historical projection: ARMA, ARIMA, etc.
• Analogy with other demands
• Evolutionary (grow lifecycle)
• Causal on originating factors
• Scenarios (alternatives and feasibility)
• Visionary (imagination)
October 6 -10
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Lecture NP - 2.2 - slide 10
Network Planning
Scope: Main supporting pillars
NETWORK PLANNING METHODOLOGY
Teletraffic
Methodology
• Statistical flow modeling for arrival rates and
holding times
• Capacity models based on stochastic processes:
Analytical and Simulation
• Dimensioning based on efficiency and QoS
• Good founding on the multiple contributions
from the International community (ITC)
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
October 6 -10
Lecture NP - 2.2 - slide 11
Network Planning
Scope: Main supporting pillars
Operational Research
and optimization
NETWORK PLANNING METHODOLOGY
•
Linear programming
method of “simplex ”
•
Non linear modeling
procedures based on gradients
•
Flow Optimization
critical path, maximum flow, etc.
•
Combinatorial processess
•
Iterative processess
decisión by succesive comparisons
•
Heuristic procedures
hybrid with emphasis on constraints
"branch and bound”
and equipment characteristics
October 6 -10
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Lecture NP - 2.2 - slide 12
Network Planning
Scope: Typical activities (1)
– 1) Problem and Network Partitioning to reduce
complexity
– 2) Data Gathering to match real needs
• Geo- scenarios
• Existing Network & carried services
• Current Performance and waiting lists
– 3) Demand Forecasting and traffic characterization
– 4) Definition of Solution Alternatives
October 6 -10
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Lecture NP - 2.2 - slide 13
Network Planning
Scope: Typical activities (2)
– 5) Mapping best alternatives to requirements in
coverage and technologies
– 6) Nodes/Links Design, Location and Dimensioning
– 7) Network Costing in CAPEX and OPEX
– 8) Optimization for routing and deployment
– 9) Sensitivity Analysis to demand level, QOS, etc.
– 10) Documentation of Network Plan and deployment
October 6 -10
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Lecture NP - 2.2 - slide 14
Network Planning
Scope: Dimensions
•
By Time
Short, Medium,Long term
•
By Level of Detail
Strategic/Business/Network/NE
•
By Network Layer
Service layer up to Infrastructure
•
By Network Segment
Access,Metro, Core, end-to-end
•
By Technology
PSTN,SDH, Radio, ATM, IP, etc
•
By Service
POTS, Data, LL, Video, etc
By Solution
October 6 -10
Combination of the previous for a Project
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Lecture NP - 2.2 - slide 15
Network Planning
Scope: Related Processes
Business
Planning
Network
Planning
Strategic
Network/business
Planning
Long Term
Structural
Planning
Short/Medium
Term
Planning
Network
Network
Support
Processes
Customer
Care &
Billing ...
Network
Traffic & QoS
Measurement ...
Management
The Network
October 6 -10
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Lecture NP - 2.2 - slide 16
Network Planning
Strategic view
Key decisions to guide the overall network
structure, services and technologies:
• Role and market segments
within competition
• Main evolution for technologies
and architectures. NGN
• Solution mapping per scenario
October 6 -10
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Lecture NP - 2.2 - slide 17
Network Planning
Strategic Planning: Role in
competition
• Selection of market segments: economy of scale
• Make versus outsource decision
• Policy on revenues and financing
• Partnership selection
• Priorities definition
October 6 -10
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Lecture NP - 2.2 - slide 18
Strategic Planning: Evolution on
Technology and architecture
Technological alternatives: Which, When and Where
• Architecture at core and access segments
• Operation support applications
• Planned evolution steps
October 6 -10
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Lecture NP - 2.2 - slide 19
Solution Mapping
• Variety of geo-scenarios within the country
• Characterize parameters for scenario and solutions
• Techno-economical evaluation to select best COOP
October 6 -10
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Lecture NP - 2.2 - slide 20
Solution Mapping: Methodology
Compliance
• Services
• Capacities
• Availability
• Operational
constraints
Projects/
Geo-scenarios
Input criteria
Techno-economical
Evaluation
• Architecture
• Density
• Capital expenditure
• NPV of full costs
• Entry costs
Selected
Scenarios
Network
Models
Mapping
Technical
Solutions
Results
Actions
Qualifiers
• Flexibility
• Speed to service
• Evolution
• Experience
Selected
Network
Solutions
Mapping
Economical
Solutions
Mapping
Qualified
Solutions
October 6 -10
Recommendations
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Lecture NP - 2.2 - slide 21
Solution Mapping: Cost Modeling
FULL COSTS
October 6 -10
=
CAPITAL COSTS
OPERATING COSTS
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
• Rights of way
• Space rental
• Operations and
maintenance
• Power
• Management and
salaries
• Cost of inventory
• Marketing campaigns
• Overheads
Electronic equipment
Cables
Civil works
Licenses, permits
Installation
Replacement
Customer premises
equipment
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
+
Lecture NP - 2.2 - slide 22
Solution Mapping: Example of Geo
Scenarios
Suburban
L1
L2
L5
Metropolitan
L4
L3
Villages
Rural clusters
L1: Distance between suburban
L2: Suburban - metropolitan distance
L3: Suburban - village distance
October 6 -10
L4: Distance between villages
L5: Distance between rural
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Lecture NP - 2.2 - slide 23
Solution Mapping:
Technological alternatives at access (Fixed)
Wireline
Narrowband
(up to 144 Kbit/s)
Direct: POTS /ISDN
Point to Multipoint
RSU: POTS /ISDN
Wireless
Satellite-Bidirectional
Multiservice DLC (FTTC)
xDSL
PLC
Access
Technologies
SDH/SONET Add Drop Mux
Wireline
FTTB/APON/EPON
Ethernet
Broadband
CATV(HFC)
MMDS/WIP
WLAN
Wireless
LMDS
Satellite-Bidirectional
DBS/DBT
October 6 -10
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Lecture NP - 2.2 - slide 24
Solution Mapping: Technical Alternatives at
access
BWA
Multiple Business
Services
High Speed Internet
Access
Fiber
xDSL (+ opt LLU)
ADSL (+ opt LLU)
CATV
TDM + ADSL (+ opt LLU)
Telephony
NWA
Low End
Revenues < ~300E/year
~ 60 %
High End
Residential
SOHO
Revenues > ~600E/year
~ 40 %
SME
Business
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
October 6 -10
Corporate
Lecture NP - 2.2 - slide 25
Solution Mapping:
Investment Splitting in Greenfield Access
Network Cost Composition
for overlay PSTN and Data
(Metropolitan 1 node Ducts+ Aerial)
Infrastructure (OSP) Cost
Composition
(Metropolitan 1 node Ducts+Aerial)
5% 5%
4%
4%
12 %
74%
OSP
PSTN access
PSTN core
DATA Overlay
Transport
October 6 -10
51 %
7%
25 %
13 %
Primary
Secondary
Civil Works
Engineering
Management
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Lecture NP - 2.2 - slide 26
Solution Mapping:
Investment sensitivity to density in WL Access
High density areas
300
Monetary units
250
Metrop. total
200
Metrop. infrastructure
150
Sub. infrastructure
Sub. total
100
50
2 477
2 235
2 355
2 112
1 870
1 990
1 747
1 625
1 504
1 381
1 139
1 259
894
1 016
774
651
529
0
Density (subscribers per KM²)
October 6 -10
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Lecture NP - 2.2 - slide 27
Solution Mapping:
Solution selection per customer density
5 000
4 500
4 000
3 500
Monetary 3 000
2 500
units
2 000
1 500
1 000
500
0
Technology A
Technology B
Technology C
7 10 13 17 20
23 27 30 33 37 40
HDSL with LLU access
Density of lines (2Mbps per km^2)
October 6 -10
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Lecture NP - 2.2 - slide 28
Solution Mapping: Techno
Techno--economical
Recommendation
Multiservice
and DSLAM
xDSL
8000
Switching based
access (RSU)
High
density
APON/FTTH
CATV/HFC
1000
1000
Overlap area
Medium
density
Quantitative Dif
Dif.. < 10%
200
- High 200
clustering
Wireless Access
Narrowband
“Qualitative assignment”
Wireless Access
Low
density
20
Wideband/BB
Fixed GSM
- Low
clustering
0.5
Satellite
Satellite
Cust./Km2
Services
&Traffic
October 6 -10
POTS/Fax
POTS/ISDN/Data
POTS/Data nx64
POTS/data/Video
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Multimedia BB
Lecture NP - 2.2 - slide 29
Network Planning
Reference benefits
• Adequate definition of customer segments, services and
business to ensure efficient operation in competition
• Anticipation of 2 to 3 years in the positive IRR
• Saving factors of 20 to 200 % by adequate
solution/technology mapping in the access segment
• Additional gains between 20 to 40 % by topology/routing
optimization
October 6 -10
ITU/BDT Network Planning/ Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Lecture NP - 2.2 - slide 30