ITU-D Seminar on IMT 2000 and beyond Systems Warsaw, 2 – 4 October 2001 Migration Paths 2G to 3G Planning the Evolution to IMT 2000 by Wolfgang Groenen Chairman UMTS Forum, Manufacturers Group and Director Industry Relations Lucent Technologies DOKUSOFT 20002333 - 1 Lucent Technologies © UMTS Forum 2001 Agenda Migration Paths 2G to 3G Planning the Evolution to IMT 2000 1. Introduction 2. Development in Markets and Services 3. Planning the Evolution of the GSM Platform 4. Migration Paths 5. Global Standardisation 6. New Services in Mobile Networks 7. Conclusions DOKUSOFT 20002333 - 2 Lucent Technologies © UMTS Forum 2001 UMTS Forum Membership ! International and independent committed through consensus to the successful introduction and development of UMTS / IMT 2000 systems ! Unique focus delivery of market-focused recommendations aimed at the successful commercial realisation of UMTS / IMT 2000 globally ! Over 260 members from 43 countries worldwide including mobile operators, manufacturers, regulators, consultants, IT and media/content communities DOKUSOFT 20002333 - 3 Lucent Technologies © UMTS Forum 2001 Major Achievements ! Delivery of market-focused Reports 14 reports up to date ! Detailed spectrum recommendations successful contributions to WRC-2000 ! A regulatory framework for licensing ! Co-ordination of market requirements First Market Representation Partner (MRP) of 3GPP Recommendations delivered to 3GPP ! Licensing database > 110 licences to be expected by end 2001 DOKUSOFT 20002333 - 4 Lucent Technologies © UMTS Forum 2001 The GSM Platform - Statistics of Success GSM MoU Users Members Countries Networks on air 1991 Trials only 43 23 0 1995 12.5 mio 156 86 117 1997 70 mio 256 110 239 2000 440 mio > 436 > 162 > 375 2005 Forecast > 1000 mio Source: GSM Association 02/01 DOKUSOFT 20002333 - 5 Lucent Technologies © UMTS Forum 2001 GSM Subscriber Forecast Mio Subscribers GSM 1900 500 GSM 1800 450 400 350 300 250 GSM 900 200 150 100 50 0 Dec. 93 Dec. 94 Dec. 95 Dec. 96 Dec. 97 Dec. 98 Dec. 99 Dec. 00 Source: GSM Association 02/01 DOKUSOFT 20002333 - 6 Lucent Technologies © UMTS Forum 2001 Distribution of World Cellular Subscribers by Regions Mio Subscribers Rest of World 1000 900 Asia Pacific 800 700 600 Europe (East + West) 500 400 300 200 North America 100 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Source: GSM Association 12/00 DOKUSOFT 20002333 - 7 Lucent Technologies © UMTS Forum 2001 Distribution of World Cellular Subscribers GSM is the best Footprint for 3G / UMTS, since GSM is preferred by 70 % of all digital Users IS54 IS95 PDC GSM Source: EMC World Cellular Database GSM Association 02/01 DOKUSOFT 20002333 - 9 Lucent Technologies © UMTS Forum 2001 GSM Evolution Towards 3rd Generation Systems Development of Radio Access 2 Mbps 115 kbps 57.6 kbps 9.6 kbps 384 kbps UMTS / IMT 2000 EDGE 3rd generation GPRS HSCSD GSM 1997 1999 / 2000 2001 / 2002 Evolving GSM Wireless Application Protocol Source: GSA DOKUSOFT 20002333 - 11 Lucent Technologies © UMTS Forum 2001 Technologies vs Timeline Integrated solution for future service demands Frequency re-planning, Coverage problem Support of EDGE and non-EDGE terminals is complex Pure packet solution no guaranteed quality UMTS/2Mbit GSM Now DOKUSOFT 20002333 - 12 HSCSD 2000 GPRS EDGE 2001 Lucent Technologies 2002 © UMTS Forum 2001 Evolution to 3rd Generation Mobile Systems Japan USA AMPS Cellular Cordless Europe USA Europe Japan Generation TACS NMT 450 NMT 900 CT0 ... 3 NET C 1st Radiocom DECT D-AMPS IS-54 PDC CDMA IS-95 GSM 900 GSM 1900 Paging PACS PHS 2nd GSM 1800 MSS LEOS, MEOS Satellite UMTS 3rd IMT 2000 Family Concept DOKUSOFT 20002333 - 13 Lucent Technologies © UMTS Forum 2001 UMTS Forum Published Reports (1) Report # 1 A Regulatory Framework for UMTS # 2 The Path towards UMTS Technologies for the Information Society # 3 The Impact of Licence Cost Levels on the UMTS Business Case # 4 Consideration of Licensing Conditions for UMTS Network Operations # 5 Minimum Spectrum Demand per Public Terrestrial UMTS Operator in the Initial Phase # 6 UMTS / IMT 2000 Spectrum Assessing Global Requirements for the Next Century # 7 Candidate Extension Bands for UMTS / IMT 2000 # 8 The Future Mobile Market Global Trend and Developments (as of 04/01) DOKUSOFT 20002333 - 14 Lucent Technologies © UMTS Forum 2001 UMTS Forum Published Reports (2) Report # 9 The UMTS 3rd Generation Market: Exploring the Services Revenue Opportunity (Part 1) (as of 04/01) DOKUSOFT 20002333 - 15 # 10 Shaping the Mobile Multimedia Future An Extended Vision from the UMTS Forum # 11 Enabling UMTS (3G) Services and Applications # 12 Naming, Addressing and Identification Issues for UMTS # 13 The UMTS 3rd Generation Market Exploring the Services Revenue Opportunity (Part 2) # 14 Services, Applications and Devices (expected end 2001) # 15 Opportunities, Advantages and Disadvantages for operators when acting in traditional business or as an ISP (expected end 2001) Lucent Technologies © UMTS Forum 2001 UMTS Forum Market Study Business Models INFORMATION AND CONTENT (Non-Voice) CONTENT CONNECTIVITY (Internet) Mobile Internet Access Intranet/ Extranet Access Mobile ISP DOKUSOFT 20002333 - 16 VOICE MOBILITY Customised Infotainment Mobile Portal Multimedia Messaging Service Locationbased Services Rich Voice Mobile Specialised Services Lucent Technologies © UMTS Forum 2001 Who do we deliver to ? Building bridges around the world UIPA GBA CWTS DOKUSOFT 20002333 - 17 Lucent Technologies © UMTS Forum 2001 IMT 2000: what’s different from 2G? Moving from voice communications to a rich, interactive multimedia-based personal and business environment - …the complete Wireless Information Society Services experience Transmission DOKUSOFT 20002333 - 19 2G 3G Voice, messaging Multimedia Applications low-speed data 14.4 Kb/s 2Mb/s Switching Method Circuit switching Packet routing Charging Time and/or location based Many options Lucent Technologies © UMTS Forum 2001 An Industry in Change Today: Separate Vertical Industries Telephony CATV Wide Area Networks Content Providers Local Network Multiple Packagers Local Network(s) CPE CPE Future: Information Industry Computers Software Providers Networking Hardware Providers Distribution Channels Hardware and Software Packages Information Content Information Servers Content Musicians Authors Reporters Distribution Channels CDs Books Newspapers Service ServiceProviders Providers • Intense Competition • Intense Competition • New Opportunities • New Opportunities Information Networks Information Appliances DOKUSOFT 20002333 - 23 Lucent Technologies © UMTS Forum 2001 Service value for the end user Service Value 2G versus 3G M-broking Navigation map Traffic reports M-shopping LB shopping information Ordinal scale Source: UMTS Forum, Market Aspects Group DOKUSOFT 20002333 - 24 LB entertainment Remote monitoring M-banking LB emergency Experts on tap Gambling Video telephony (translation) Music on demand Video subscription news Video on demand Interactive Game 3G service value versus 2G LB = Location Based Lucent Technologies © UMTS Forum 2001 IMT 2000 – Terrestrial Radio Interfaces IMT 2000 Concept IMT - DS Direct Spread Also known as: Responsibility for Standardisation IMT - TC Time Code IMT - MC Multi Carrier IMT - SC Single Carrier IMT - FT Frequency Time DECT ETSI WCDMA or UTRA FDD UTRA TDD cdma 2000 UWC - 136 or EDGE 3 GPP 3 GPP 3 GPP 2 UWCC/TR45 Source: 3 GPP DOKUSOFT 20002333 - 26 Lucent Technologies © UMTS Forum 2001 New IMT 2000 / UMTS Spectrum (WRC 2000) 800 ITU Allocations 850 900 950 IMT 2000 Europe China Japan, Korea (w/o PHS) Cellular 1000 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 GSM 1800 GSM GSM 1800, PCS PDC IMT 2000 M S S UMTS M S S UMTS M S S IMT 2000 M S S IMT 2000 M S S IMT 2000 M S S D E C T M IMT 2000 S S P H S PCS North America DOKUSOFT 20002333 - 27 Cellular 2200 2250 M IMT 2000 S S IMT 2000 GSM 2100 2150 A D B EF C A D B EF C Lucent Technologies M S S Reserve 2500 2550 2600 2650 2700 IMT 2000 UMTS M S S © UMTS Forum 2001 The multimedia future A few years from now, billions of people worldwide will be talking, listening, watching, buying, playing and learning with their mobile phones Tomorrow’s phones will be much more than just phones DOKUSOFT 20002333 - 28 Lucent Technologies © UMTS Forum 2001 Fast forward to the future … tomorrow’s mobile users will use exciting new pocketable communications devices to view high-quality video clips, work with graphics-rich document files, browse, buy and enjoy a whole new world of information and entertainment services. DOKUSOFT 20002333 - 29 Lucent Technologies © UMTS Forum 2001 Conclusions ! Mobile communications will continue to be among the fastest growing market segments in telecommunications ! 3G systems based on the evolution of the GSM platform are on the way to leading positions worldwide ! Next generation systems with the paradigm shift to high speed data and mobile multimedia services will change the world we live in ! Convergence of networks, technologies and services will be the key to a seamless mobility for the users and the key for opening mass markets in mobile communications DOKUSOFT 20002333 - 32 " The UMTS Forum will continue to pave the way for a smooth introduction of IMT 2000 / UMTS " Lucent Technologies is prepared to provide Total System Solutions for 3G / IMT 2000 Business Lucent Technologies © UMTS Forum 2001 Information about the UMTS Forum UMTS Forum Russell Square House 10 - 12 Russell Square LONDON WC1B 5EE UNITED KINGDOM Tel: + 44 207 331 2020 Fax: + 44 207 331 2040 E-mail: umtsforum@fei.org.uk MobilenniuM newsletter Web Site: www.umts-forum.org/ DOKUSOFT 20002333 - 33 Lucent Technologies © UMTS Forum 2001