ITU-D Seminar on IMT 2000
and beyond Systems
Warsaw, 2 – 4 October 2001
Migration Paths 2G to 3G
Planning the Evolution to IMT 2000
by
Wolfgang Groenen
Chairman UMTS Forum,
Manufacturers Group
and
Director Industry Relations
Lucent Technologies
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© UMTS Forum 2001
Agenda
Migration Paths 2G to 3G
Planning the Evolution to IMT 2000
1. Introduction
2. Development in Markets and Services
3. Planning the Evolution of the GSM Platform
4. Migration Paths
5. Global Standardisation
6. New Services in Mobile Networks
7. Conclusions
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© UMTS Forum 2001
UMTS Forum Membership
! International and independent
committed through consensus to the successful introduction
and development of UMTS / IMT 2000 systems
! Unique focus
delivery of market-focused recommendations aimed at the
successful commercial realisation of UMTS / IMT 2000 globally
! Over 260 members from 43 countries worldwide
including mobile operators, manufacturers, regulators,
consultants, IT and media/content communities
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© UMTS Forum 2001
Major Achievements
! Delivery of market-focused Reports
14 reports up to date
! Detailed spectrum recommendations
successful contributions to WRC-2000
! A regulatory framework for licensing
! Co-ordination of market requirements
First Market Representation Partner (MRP) of 3GPP
Recommendations delivered to 3GPP
! Licensing database
> 110 licences to be expected by end 2001
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© UMTS Forum 2001
The GSM Platform - Statistics of Success
GSM MoU
Users
Members
Countries
Networks
on air
1991
Trials
only
43
23
0
1995
12.5 mio
156
86
117
1997
70 mio
256
110
239
2000
440 mio
> 436
> 162
> 375
2005
Forecast
> 1000 mio
Source: GSM Association 02/01
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© UMTS Forum 2001
GSM Subscriber Forecast
Mio Subscribers
GSM 1900
500
GSM 1800
450
400
350
300
250
GSM 900
200
150
100
50
0
Dec. 93
Dec. 94
Dec. 95
Dec. 96
Dec. 97
Dec. 98
Dec. 99
Dec. 00
Source: GSM Association 02/01
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Distribution of
World Cellular Subscribers by Regions
Mio Subscribers
Rest of World
1000
900
Asia Pacific
800
700
600
Europe
(East + West)
500
400
300
200
North America
100
0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Source: GSM Association 12/00
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© UMTS Forum 2001
Distribution of World Cellular Subscribers
GSM is the best Footprint for 3G / UMTS,
since GSM is preferred by 70 % of all digital Users
IS54
IS95
PDC
GSM
Source: EMC World Cellular Database
GSM Association 02/01
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GSM Evolution Towards
3rd Generation Systems
Development of
Radio Access
2 Mbps
115 kbps
57.6 kbps
9.6 kbps
384 kbps
UMTS / IMT 2000
EDGE
3rd generation
GPRS
HSCSD
GSM
1997
1999 / 2000
2001 / 2002
Evolving GSM
Wireless Application Protocol
Source: GSA
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Technologies vs Timeline
Integrated solution for
future service demands
Frequency re-planning, Coverage problem
Support of EDGE and non-EDGE terminals is complex
Pure packet solution
no guaranteed quality
UMTS/2Mbit
GSM
Now
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HSCSD
2000
GPRS
EDGE
2001
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2002
© UMTS Forum 2001
Evolution to 3rd Generation Mobile Systems
Japan
USA
AMPS
Cellular
Cordless
Europe
USA
Europe
Japan Generation
TACS
NMT 450
NMT 900
CT0 ... 3
NET C
1st
Radiocom
DECT
D-AMPS IS-54
PDC
CDMA IS-95
GSM 900
GSM 1900
Paging
PACS
PHS
2nd
GSM 1800
MSS
LEOS, MEOS
Satellite
UMTS
3rd
IMT 2000 Family
Concept
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© UMTS Forum 2001
UMTS Forum
Published Reports (1)
Report # 1 A Regulatory Framework for UMTS
# 2 The Path towards UMTS Technologies for the Information Society
# 3 The Impact of Licence Cost Levels on the UMTS Business Case
# 4 Consideration of Licensing Conditions for UMTS
Network Operations
# 5 Minimum Spectrum Demand per Public Terrestrial
UMTS Operator in the Initial Phase
# 6 UMTS / IMT 2000 Spectrum
Assessing Global Requirements for the Next Century
# 7 Candidate Extension Bands for UMTS / IMT 2000
# 8 The Future Mobile Market Global Trend and Developments
(as of 04/01)
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UMTS Forum
Published Reports (2)
Report # 9 The UMTS 3rd Generation Market:
Exploring the Services Revenue Opportunity (Part 1)
(as of 04/01)
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# 10
Shaping the Mobile Multimedia Future
An Extended Vision from the UMTS Forum
# 11
Enabling UMTS (3G) Services and Applications
# 12
Naming, Addressing and Identification Issues for UMTS
# 13
The UMTS 3rd Generation Market
Exploring the Services Revenue Opportunity (Part 2)
# 14
Services, Applications and Devices (expected end 2001)
# 15
Opportunities, Advantages and Disadvantages for operators
when acting in traditional business or as an ISP
(expected end 2001)
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UMTS Forum Market Study
Business Models
INFORMATION AND CONTENT (Non-Voice)
CONTENT
CONNECTIVITY
(Internet)
Mobile
Internet
Access
Intranet/
Extranet
Access
Mobile ISP
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VOICE
MOBILITY
Customised
Infotainment
Mobile
Portal
Multimedia
Messaging
Service
Locationbased
Services
Rich
Voice
Mobile Specialised Services
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Who do we deliver to ?
Building bridges around the world
UIPA
GBA
CWTS
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IMT 2000:
what’s different from 2G?
Moving from voice communications
to a rich, interactive multimedia-based
personal and business environment -
…the complete Wireless
Information Society
Services
experience
Transmission
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2G
3G
Voice, messaging Multimedia
Applications
low-speed data
14.4 Kb/s
2Mb/s
Switching
Method
Circuit
switching
Packet
routing
Charging
Time and/or
location based
Many
options
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An Industry in Change
Today: Separate Vertical Industries
Telephony
CATV
Wide Area
Networks
Content Providers
Local
Network
Multiple Packagers
Local
Network(s)
CPE
CPE
Future:
Information Industry
Computers
Software
Providers
Networking
Hardware
Providers
Distribution
Channels
Hardware and
Software
Packages
Information Content
Information Servers
Content
Musicians
Authors
Reporters
Distribution
Channels
CDs
Books
Newspapers
Service
ServiceProviders
Providers
• Intense Competition
• Intense Competition
• New Opportunities
• New Opportunities
Information Networks
Information Appliances
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Service value for the end user
Service Value 2G versus 3G
M-broking
Navigation
map
Traffic
reports
M-shopping
LB
shopping
information
Ordinal scale
Source: UMTS Forum, Market Aspects Group
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LB
entertainment
Remote
monitoring
M-banking
LB
emergency
Experts
on tap
Gambling
Video
telephony
(translation)
Music on
demand
Video
subscription
news
Video on
demand
Interactive
Game
3G service value versus 2G
LB = Location Based
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© UMTS Forum 2001
IMT 2000 – Terrestrial Radio Interfaces
IMT 2000
Concept
IMT - DS
Direct Spread
Also
known
as:
Responsibility
for
Standardisation
IMT - TC
Time Code
IMT - MC
Multi Carrier
IMT - SC
Single Carrier
IMT - FT
Frequency
Time
DECT
ETSI
WCDMA
or
UTRA FDD
UTRA TDD
cdma 2000
UWC - 136
or
EDGE
3 GPP
3 GPP
3 GPP 2
UWCC/TR45
Source: 3 GPP
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New IMT 2000 / UMTS Spectrum (WRC 2000)
800
ITU Allocations
850
900 950
IMT 2000
Europe
China
Japan,
Korea (w/o PHS)
Cellular
1000
1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
GSM 1800
GSM
GSM 1800, PCS
PDC
IMT
2000
M
S
S
UMTS
M
S
S
UMTS
M
S
S
IMT 2000
M
S
S
IMT
2000
M
S
S
IMT
2000
M
S
S
D
E
C
T
M
IMT 2000 S
S
P
H
S
PCS
North America
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Cellular
2200 2250
M
IMT 2000 S
S
IMT 2000
GSM
2100 2150
A D B EF C
A D B EF C
Lucent Technologies
M
S
S
Reserve
2500 2550 2600 2650 2700
IMT 2000
UMTS
M
S
S
© UMTS Forum 2001
The multimedia future
A few years from now, billions of
people worldwide will be talking,
listening, watching, buying,
playing and learning with their
mobile phones
Tomorrow’s phones will
be much more than
just phones
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Fast forward to the future
… tomorrow’s mobile users will use exciting new
pocketable communications devices to view
high-quality video clips, work with graphics-rich
document files, browse, buy and enjoy a whole
new world of information and entertainment
services.
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© UMTS Forum 2001
Conclusions
! Mobile communications will continue to be among the
fastest growing market segments in telecommunications
! 3G systems based on the evolution of the GSM platform
are on the way to leading positions worldwide
! Next generation systems with the paradigm shift to high speed data
and mobile multimedia services will change the world we live in
! Convergence of networks, technologies and services will
be the key to a seamless mobility for the users and the key
for opening mass markets in mobile communications
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"
The UMTS Forum will continue to pave the way for
a smooth introduction of IMT 2000 / UMTS
"
Lucent Technologies is prepared to provide
Total System Solutions for 3G / IMT 2000 Business
Lucent Technologies
© UMTS Forum 2001
Information about the UMTS Forum
UMTS Forum
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LONDON WC1B 5EE
UNITED KINGDOM
Tel: + 44 207 331 2020
Fax: + 44 207 331 2040
E-mail: umtsforum@fei.org.uk
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Web Site: www.umts-forum.org/
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