…..Shaping
…..Shaping the
the mobile
mobile future
future
Status of UMTS to date
Dr Bernd Eylert
Chairman, UMTS Forum
ITU
ITU Sub-Regional
Sub-Regional Seminar
Seminar on
on IMT-2000
IMT-2000
Moscow,
Moscow, 10-13
10-13 September
September 2002
2002
www.umts-forum.org
www.umts-forum.org
©
© UMTS
UMTS Forum
Forum 2002
2002
What is the UMTS Forum?
4A
A global
global organisation
organisation with
with over
over 200
200 members
members from
from more
more
than
than 40
40 countries:
countries:
4 Mobile,
Mobile, fixed
fixed and
and satellite
satellite operators
operators
4 suppliers
suppliers
4 consultants
consultants
4 regulatory
regulatory bodies
bodies
4 IT
IT and
and media
media content
content providers
providers
4 Goal:
Goal:
4 Successful
Successful global
global commercial
commercial deployment
deployment of
of UMTS
UMTS // 3G
3G services
services
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UMTS
UMTS Forum
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2002
What are our aims?
The
The Forum
Forum works
works to
to identify
identify common
common interests
interests and
and to
to
promote:
promote:
4 Realisation
Realisation of
of the
the full
full vision
vision of
of UMTS
UMTS mobile
mobile services
services
4 Timely
Timely availability
availability of
of radio
radio spectrum
spectrum to
to support
support UMTS/IMT-2000
UMTS/IMT-2000
4 AA sound
sound regulatory
regulatory framework
framework for
for the
the introduction
introduction of
of
UMTS/IMT-2000
UMTS/IMT-2000
4 AA clear
clear understanding
understanding of
of future
future market
market opportunities
opportunities
4 Convergence
Convergence and
and mutual
mutual understanding
understanding between
between all
all relevant
relevant
industries
industries
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Achievements to date
4 Licensing:
Licensing:
4 Detailed
Detailed advice
advice on
on policy
policy and
and cost
cost issues
issues to
to guide
guide regulators:
regulators:
wide
wide acceptance
acceptance of
of our
our recommendations
recommendations
4 Clarification
Clarification of
of market
market requirements:
requirements:
4 Guidance
Guidance towards
towards global
global standardisation
standardisation
4 Detailed
Detailed spectrum
spectrum recommendations:
recommendations:
4 Successful
Successful conclusion
conclusion to
to WRC-2000
WRC-2000
4 Investor
Investor Confidence
Confidence
4 Increase
Increase awareness
awareness amongst
amongst investment
investment community
community
44
UMTS
UMTS Forum
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2002
UMTS
UMTS VALUATIONS
VALUATIONS IN
IN CONTEXT
CONTEXT
(some
(some examples)
examples)
Germany
Germany
80
80
20
20yrs
yrs
~8.300€
~8.300€ bn
bn
Price per
per license
license (€
(€ bn)
bn)
Price
UK
UK
70
70
20
20yrs
yrs
~7.560€
~7.560€ bn
bn
60
60
SPAIN
SPAIN
20
20yrs,
yrs,can
canbe
beextended
extended
for
for another
another 10
10yrs;
yrs;
~131
~131€€ mil
mil ++Annual
Annualfee
fee
50
50
40
40
Netherlands
Netherlands
20
20
00
20
20yrs
yrs
~150€
~150€mil
mil
20 yrs
~619€
~619€mil
mil
Portugal
Portugal
30
30
10
10
FRANCE
FRANCE
Belgium
Belgium 20
yrs
15
15yrs,
yrs,~540€
~540€mil
mil
Italy
Italy
15
15yrs,
yrs,~100€
~100€mil
mil
15
15yrs
yrs
~2.560
~2.560 €€mil
mil
SWITZERLAND
SWITZERLAND
15
15yrs,
yrs,~33.4€
~33.4€ mil
mil
SWEDEN
SWEDEN
Finland
Finland
15
15yrs,
yrs,~0.011€
~0.011€ mil
mil
20
20yrs,
yrs, nil
nil€€
DEC-99
DEC-99
APR-00
APR-00
JUL-00
JUL-00 AUG-00
AUG-00 OCT-00
OCT-00
DEC-00
DEC-00
MAR-01
MAR-01 MAY-01
MAY-01
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2002
The future of UMTS/3G is bright
hype
mobile
multimedia
mass
market
UK / Germany
UMTS auctions
NTT DoCoMo
launch
First launches
in Europe
de-hype
2000
2001
2002
2003
time
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UMTS Forum
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2002
The success of GSM
……and the evolution to 3G via UMTS
4 GSM
GSM covers
covers 178
178 countries
countries worldwide,
worldwide, serving
serving aa truly
truly mass
mass market
market -(1)
with
with approx
approx.. 700
700 million
million users
users (1)
4 Today
Today GSM
GSM is
is the
the only
only cellular
cellular system
system that
that is
is standardised
standardised for
for use
use in
in
three
three cellular
cellular bands
bands worldwide
worldwide -- 900,
900, 1800
1800 and
and 1900
1900 MHz
MHz
4 GSM
GSM coverage
coverage in
in most
most countries
countries extends
extends to
to over
over 99%
99% of
of the
the
population
population
4 Popularity
Popularity and
and growth
growth of
of SMS:
SMS: generated
generated 30
30 billion
billion text
text messages
messages per
per
(2),, with
month
month worldwide
worldwide (2)
with each
each user
user in
in Europe
Europe sending
sending 35-40
35-40 SMS
SMS
(3)
messages
messages per
per month
month (3)
4 UMTS
UMTS with
with WCDMA
WCDMA is
is the
the chosen
chosen 3G
3G evolutionary
evolutionary path
path for
for over
over 100
100
operators
operators worldwide
worldwide
(1)
(1) End
End of
of March:
March: EMC
EMC World
World Cellular
Cellular Database
Database
(2)
(2) GSM Association
GSM Association
(3)
(3) Mobilestreams,
Mobilestreams, February
February 2002
2002
UMTS
UMTS Forum
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2002
77
Is IMT-2000 different?
Differences, but not crucial
Two main standards
Multi-mode, multi-band
terminals more common
(also 2G - 3G)
Possibility for satellite modes
Non-GSM countries involved from the start
- But being an international project,
players wanted to have legal certainty from
the start
88
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2002
Challenges with UMTS
It is not only circuit switched voice services as in 2G! It is
4the mobile component of the Information Society
4digital convergence of media, data & telecom
4a multi-national, multi-sector system
4Many different protocols (MPEG, WAP, IP, etc.)
4A wide range of terminals, products & services
4Shorter product development times & more complex
products
4And, users want services available everywhere!
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2002
UMTS user needs
Demand
Demand will
will be
be driven
driven by
by the
the following
following user
user needs:
needs:
4 Anywhere,
Anywhere, anytime
anytime access
access to
to information
information
4 Access
Access to
to corporate
corporate networks
networks from
from any
any device
device
4 Access
Access to
to all
all messages
messages (voice,
(voice, email,
email, multimedia,
multimedia, fax)
fax) from
from any
any
single
single device
device
4 Video
Video and
and Web
Web conferencing
conferencing
4 Access
Access to
to specific
specific types
types of
of information
information (financial,
(financial, recreational)
recreational)
4 Social
Social contact
contact (community
(community of
of interests)
interests)
4 Access
Access to
to location-based
location-based information
information on
on demand
demand
10
10
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2002
Economic trends and forecast
implications
4 Substantial
Substantial long-term
long-term revenue
revenue opportunities
opportunities for
for UMTS/3G
UMTS/3G
4 9-11
9-11 has
has little
little impact;
impact; economical
economical downturn
downturn has
has short
short term
term
impact
impact
4 Mobile
Mobile market
market predicted
predicted to
to grow
grow rapidly
rapidly -- on
on the
the brink
brink of
of
tremendous
tremendous expansion
expansion driven
driven by
by 3G
3G
4 Cumulative
Cumulative revenues
revenues of
of almost
almost $1
$1 trillion
trillion from
from launch
launch through
through
2010
2010
4 Operators
Operators revenue
revenue calculated
calculated at
at $$ 322bn
322bn by
by year
year 2010
2010
4 Non-voice
Non-voice service
service revenues
revenues will
will comprise
comprise 66%
66% of
of 3G
3G service
service
revenues
revenues by
by 2010
2010
11
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UMTS
UMTS Forum
Forum -- 2002
2002
Economic trends and forecast
implications (cont)
4Gradual
Gradual 3G
3G adoption
adoption in
in the
the early
early years
years
4Nearly
Nearly aa third
third of
of worldwide
worldwide subscriber
subscriber will
will use
use 3G
3G in
in 2010
2010
4Complex
Complex services
services will
will take
take time
time to
to develop
develop
Worldwide Mobile Subscribers
with 3G Network Access
Figure
Figure 3.
3. 3G-adoption
3G-adoption rate
rate
showing
showing that
that 28%
28% of
of worldwide
worldwide
mobile
mobile subscribers
subscribers will
will be
be 3G
3G
subscribers
subscribers in
in 2010
2010 –– aa
conservative
conservativeassumption.
assumption.
Source:
Source: Telecompetition,
Telecompetition,
Inc./UMTS
Inc./UMTS Forum,
Forum, February
February 2002.
2002.
% of Worldwide Mobile Subscribers
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
12
12
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UMTS Forum
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2002
UMTS/3G Operators Revenues
Source: UMTS ForumTelecompetition Inc., February 2002
UMTS
UMTS Forum
Forum -- 2002
2002
13
13
Worldwide Mobile 3G Subscribers
Source:
Source: UMTS
UMTS Forum
Forum //Telecompetition
TelecompetitionInc
Inc
August
2001
August 2001
UMTS
UMTS Forum
Forum -- 2002
2002
14
14
Worldwide Mobile Subscribers
Worldwide Mobile Subscribers
Figure
Figure 2.
2. Worldwide
Worldwide mobile
mobile
subscriber
subscriber forecast
forecast
comparisons.
comparisons.
Source:
Source: Telecompetition,
Telecompetition,
Inc./UMTS
Inc./UMTS Forum
Forum February
February
2002,
and
Morgan
2002, and Morgan Stanley
Stanley
“Worldwide
“WorldwideWireless
Wireless–1/02”,
–1/02”,
January
January 22,
22, 2002.
2002.
UMTS Forum
Morgan Stanley
2,000
Mobile Subscribers (M)
Years
Years 2007-2010
2007-2010
extrapolated
extrapolated from
from
Morgan
Morgan Stanley
Stanley
projections
projections by
by
applying
applying 2001-06
2001-06
compound
compound annual
annual
growth
growth rate
rate (12.7%)
(12.7%) to
to
the
remaining
the remaining forecast
forecast
years.
years.
2,500
1,500
1,000
500
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
15
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UMTS
UMTS Forum
Forum -- 2002
2002
Worldwide demand for 3G services by
subscriptions – 2001-2010
Worldwide Subscriptions - Selected Services
700
600
Customised Infotainment
Mobile Intranet/Extranet Access
Consumer MMS
Mobile Internet Access
Business MMS
Simple Voice
Subscriptions (M)
500
400
300
200
Source:
Source: UMTS
UMTS Forum
Forum //Telecompetition
TelecompetitionInc
Inc
August
August 2001
2001
100
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
16
16
UMTS
UMTS Forum
Forum -- 2002
2002
Staged UMTS/3G services introduction
Customised
Customised
Infotainment
Infotainment
Intranet/
Intranet/
Extranet
Extranet Access
Access
2002
l
l
Location-Based
Location-Based
Services
Services
MMS
video
MMS (+
(+ video)
video))
2003
Rich
Rich Voice
Voice with
with
graphics
graphics
2004
Rich
Rich Voice
Voice
consumer
consumer
videophone
videophone
2005
3G
3G services
services available
available in
in Japan
Japan (similar
(similar to
to customised
customised infotainment
infotainment and
and
Intranet/Extranet
Intranet/Extranet Access)
Access)
l
l
UMTS
UMTS Market
Market trials
trials for
for videophone
videophone service
service on
on Isle
Isle of
of Man
Man and
and Monaco
Monaco
l
l
Multimedia
Multimedia Messaging
Messaging Service
Service introduction
introduction H1
H1 2002
2002
17
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UMTS
UMTS Forum
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2002
Market Study Summary
4 Recent
Recent economic
economic downturn
downturn and
and market
market turmoil
turmoil following
following
September
September 11
11 will
will have
have only
only short
short term
term implications
implications on
on 3G
3G revenues
revenues
4 proposed
proposed increased
increased spending
spending in
in the
the US
US on
on defence
defence &
& technology
technology
4 Cumulative
Cumulative revenues
revenues of
of almost
almost $1
$1 trillion
trillion from
from launch
launch until
until 2010
2010
4 $322
$322 billion
billion in
in revenues
revenues in
in 2010
2010
4 IIn
n 2010
2010 the
the average
average 3G
3G subscriber
subscriber will
will spend
spend about
about $30
$30 per
per month
month on
on
3G
3G data
data services
services
4 Non-voice
Non-voice service
service revenues
revenues will
will dominate
dominate voice
voice revenues
revenues and
and comprise
comprise
66%
66% of
of 3G
3G service
service revenues
revenues by
by 2010
2010
4 market
market slowdown
slowdown leading
leading to
to better
better cash
cash generation
generation from
from 2G
2G networks
networks
18
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2002
UMTS Forum Reports & Papers
Latest Reports (e.g. 3Q2001 to 2Q2002)
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3G
3G Portal
Portal Study
Study (No
(No 16)
16)
UMTS
UMTS Third
Third Generation
Generation Market
Market Study
Study Update
Update and
and Forecast
Forecast (No
(No 17/18)
17/18)
Benefits
Benefits and
and drawbacks
drawbacks of
of introducing
introducing aa dedicated
dedicated TLD...
TLD... (No
(No 19)
19)
IMS
IMS Study
Study (No
(No 20)
20)
Charging,
Charging, Billing
Billing and
and Payment
Payment Views
Views on
on 3G
3G Business
Business Models
Models (No
(No 21)
21)
Public
Public WLANs
WLANs &
& 3G
3G Business
Business Revenues
Revenues (No
(No 22)
22)
UMTS/IMT-2000
UMTS/IMT-2000 in
in Central
Central &
& South
South American
American Countries
Countries (No
(No 23)
23)
Reports under study (2002) e.g.
4
4 (more)
(more) Wireless
Wireless LAN
LAN Studies
Studies (expected
(expected 3-4Q2002)
3-4Q2002)
4
4 Research
Research on
on Customers
Customers Behaviour
Behaviour (expected
(expected 4Q2002)
4Q2002)
Further more
4
4 Position
Position &
& White
White Papers
Papers on
on different
different subjects
subjects (continuing)
(continuing) e.g.
e.g.
4
4 Global
Global Terminal
Terminal Circulation
Circulation
4
4 2G-3G
2G-3G Evolution
Evolution
19
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UMTS
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2002
…..Shaping
…..Shaping the
the mobile
mobile future
future
Committed to the global success
of UMTS / 3rd Generation Mobile
Communication:
The UMTS Forum
www.umts-forum.org
www.umts-forum.org
©
© UMTS
UMTS Forum
Forum 2002
2002
For more details ...
4
4 Website:
Website:
4
4 News,
News, Reports,
Reports, Events,
Events, Contacts
Contacts
www.umts-forum.org
www.umts-forum.org
4
4 MobilenniuM:
MobilenniuM:
4
4 next
next issue:
issue: June
June 2002
2002
4
4 General
General Assembly:
Assembly:
4
4 #26,
#26, 6-7
6-7 June
June 2002,
2002, Philadelphia,
Philadelphia,
USA
USA
4
4 Secretariat:
Secretariat:
4
4 10-12
10-12 Russell
Russell Square
Square
4
4 London
London WC1B
WC1B 5EE,
5EE, UK
UK
4
4 +44
+44 20
20 7331
7331 2020
2020
4
4 Press
Press Contacts:
Contacts:
4
4 Chris
Chris Solbe
Solbe
4
4 +44
+44 7956
7956 388
388 798
798
21
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2002