ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2010
Beyond the Internet? - Innovations for
future networks and services
Requests for communication performance
from connected vehicle of the future
Tadao Saito
Professor Emeritus, the University of Tokyo
CTO, Toyota Info-Technology Center
saito@jp.toyota-itc.com
Pune, India, 13 – 15 December 2010
Market Back Ground for Future Communication
Global telecommunication market is apparently saturated after
rapid expansion of recent 20 years
Global penetration of communication equipment
Cost reduction of hardware.
Saturation of demand in traditional human use.
New market replacing Human to Human communication is needed
to realize further growth.
Creation of Machine to Machine communication market
having a size equivalent to human communication market.
Vehicle communication have been studied in recent 15 years
Home networking is also a candidate for M2M communication.
Recently Smart Grid attract interest as new market for machine to
machine communication
Pune, India, 13 – 15 Dec 2010:
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Saturation of IT Market
Communication
Computers
Terminals
1950
108
105
109
107
109
109
1970
1990
personalize
2010
ubiquitous
2030
1011
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contents
Changes in IT environments
Communication Services for vehicles
Market Growth through M2M
communication
Pune, India, 13 – 15 Dec 2010:
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contents
Changes in IT environments
Communication Services for vehicles
Market Growth through M2M
communication
Pune, India, 13 – 15 Dec 2010:
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Traditional technology developments
Communication technology has been developed
starting from human communication in early stage.
A lot of efforts are paid for improvement of
performance and cost reduction.
Multimedia applications for human market
Broadband communication wirless and wireline
Extension of range without repeater.
Mobility management of human speed.
Security to keep network
Recent requests for low carbon systems
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100M
Proposal of combination of multiple
radios in 1994 in Japanese
government report which is the
source of contribution for B3G in
2002.
video
CATV
10M
Wireless
LAN
2M
１.5M
B-ISDN
FPLMTS
N-ISDN
64ｋ
Transmission
TV conference
(3rd Generation)
32k
PHS
speed
9.6k
Digital cellular
2.4k
Analogue cellular
Mobile
satellite
G3FAX
PC communication
Voice
pager
1.2k
Short message
home
office
city
suburban
rural
Service area
A book titled Radio multimedia of year 2000 published May 1995 in Japanese
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and services
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As a result of effort a lot of communication systems
having different performance ware developed
Different systems have been developed mainly from
seeds driven ideas.
Users are requested to cope with coexistence of
different systems.
Use of combinations of different systems are
responsibility of users.
Cognitive adaptation of user terminal is needed for
smooth use of multiple systems, however this
technology is far from reality.
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F IG U R E 2
I llu s tr a t io n o f c a p a b i lit ie s o f I M T - 2 0 0 0 a n d s y s t e m s b e y o n d I M T -2 0 0 0
S y s te m s b e y o n d IM T -2 0 0 0 w i ll e n c o m p a s s
th e c a p a b i lit ie s o f p re v i o u s s y s te m s
M o b ili ty
N e w c a p a b i lit ie s
o f sy stem s b e y o n d
IM T -2 0 0 0
H ig h
I M T -2 0 0 0
E n h an ced
I M T -2 0 0 0
N ew
m o b ile
a cc e ss
D a s h e d lin e in d ic a t e s
th a t t h e e x a c t d a ta
ra te s a s s o c ia te d w it h
s y s te m s b e y o n d I M T -2 0 0 0
a re n o t y e t d e te rm in e d
E n h an c e m e n t
N e w n o m a d i c / lo c a l
a r e a w ir e le s s a c c e s s
Low
1
10
100
P e a k u s e fu l d a t a ra te (M b i t/s )
1000
D e n o te s in te rc o n n e c t io n b e t w e e n s y s te m s v i a n e t w o r k s , w h i c h a ll o w s
fl e x i b l e u s e in a n y e n v ir o n m e n t w it h o u t m a k i n g u s e r s a w a re o f
c o n s tit u e n t s y s t e m s
N o m a d i c / lo c a l a r e a a c c e s s s y s te m s
ITUーR vandiagram（２００２）
D ig i ta l b ro a d c a s t s y s te m s
D a rk s h a d in g in d ic a t e s e x i s t in g c a p a b i lit ie s , m e d i u m s h a d in g in d i c a te s e n h a n c e m e n ts t o
IM T -2 0 0 0 , a n d th e li g h t e r s h a d in g in d ic a t e s n e w c a p a b il it ie s o f s y s te m s b e y o n d I M T -2 0 0 0 .
T h e d e g re e o f m o b ili ty a s u s e d in t h i s F i g u r e is d e s c r ib e d a s fo l lo w s : lo w m o b il ity c o v e r s
p e d e s t ria n s p e e d , a n d h ig h m o b ili ty c o v e rs h ig h s p e e d o n h i g h w a y s o r fa s t t ra in s (6 0 k m /h to
~ 2 5 0 k m /h , o r m o re ).
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VNC-Oct-2009
ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2010 – Beyond the Internet? Innovations for future networks and services
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1 59 03 3
9
VAN diagram
MOBILITY
High speed
2G、2.5G、3G、3,5G、4G：
2G
3G
3.5G
（PDC
）
802.○□：IEEE
802.16e
4G
802.20
2.5G
DSRC
WiFi
4G
LTE
WiMAX
WiMax2
802.11p
802.16-2004
802.11b
）
802.11n
802.15.3
（UWB）
802.11a/g
stationary
10k
100k
1M
10M
100M
1G
TRANSMISSION RATE (bps)
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Service
Service A
A
Service
Service B
B
Service
Service
aggregator
aggregator
Packet-based
core network
DSRC
DSRC
Digital
Digital
Broadcast
Broadcast
B3G
B3G
Cellular
Cellular
IMS
Wired
Wired
Broadband
Broadband
4G
4G
Cellular
Cellular
WLAN
WLAN
Ad-hoc
Ad-hoc Short
Short
Range
Range
Communication
Communication
Current IMS based services are not
suited for vehicular communication
because separate systems do not have
adequate coordination.
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contents
Changes in IT environments
Communication Services for vehicles
Market Growth through M2M
communication
Pune, India, 13 – 15 Dec 2010:
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Advances in recent 10 years in ICT application
for automobile
Traditionally ICT improved many aspects of vehicles
including emission reduction and stability control.
In recent 10 years, contribution of ICT in vehicle
technology expanded fast.
Vehicle Stability Control
Radar Cruise Control (ACC)
Back Monitor
Tire Pressure Monitor
On Demand Information
Shift Control based on Map
Autonomous→Networked
Interests for Communication,
V2I and V2V
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Communication based services for safe smooth
convenient operation
1970’s Signal control
1980’s Major improvements build in electronics for vehicle
1990’s DSRC for Infrastructure-Vehicle communication
Traffic Data
Toll Collection
Congestion Charge
2000’s Transport Telematics
Remote Vehicle Support system
Map updating
Music distribution
eCall, e911
2005’s Vehicle Safety Systems
Collision avoidance
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ITS Vehicle services
Traffic management
probing, dynamic fee management, emission management
Public transport management
transit vehicle tracking, multimodal coordination
Traveler information
personal route guidance, provider based route guidance,dynamic rideshare
Vehicle safety
intersection safety warning, intersection collision avoidance, automated highway
Commercial vehicle operation
fleet administration, freight administration, electronic clearance, weigh-in- motion
Emergency management
stolen vehicle tracking, stolen vehicle control, emergency response, mayday support
ITS America, 1996
Pune, India, 13 – 15 Dec 2010:
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Two classes of vehicle communication
ITS( Intelligent Transport System)
Vehicle services using short range communication
probing,
fee collection,
intersection safety warning
Tansport Telematics
Vehicle services using cell phone service
emergency management
stolen vehicle responses
remote vehicle support
personal route guidance
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ITS Architecture
（ITS America1996)
Centers
Travelers
Traffic
Management
Remote Traveler
Support
Information
Service Provider
Emergency
Management
Emissions
Management
Toll
Administration
Fleet &
Freight
Management
Transit
Management
Personal Information
Access
Vehicle
Emergency
Vehicle
Commercial
Vehicle
Transit
Vehicle
Maintenance &
Construction Vehicle
Maintenance &
Construction
Management
Archived
Data Management
ITS to fixed point Communications
Fixed point
Vehicles
Roadway
Dedicated Short Range
Communications
Vehicle to Vehicle Communications
Wide Area Wireless (Mobile)
Communications
Commercial
Vehicle
Administration
Security Monitoring
Toll Collection
Field
Parking Management
Commercial Vehicle Check
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Centers
Wide Area Wireless
Communications
Fixed Point to Point
Communications
Vehicle
DSRC
Vehicle to Vehicle Communications
Travelers
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ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2010 – Beyond the Internet? Innovations for future networks and services
Field
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Communication services for Vehicles
When ITS study started in 1996, public wireless service was
still premature.
Dedicated short range communication system are proposed for
ITS Communication.
In latter half of 1990‘s, cell phone services became ubiquitous
and quickly saturated in personal service market.
Transport Telematics was expected to cultivate new market for
Cell Phone Carriers.
In 1990’s business model of cell phone for Machine to Machine
communication was still premature and performance was also
inadequate for some of ITS applications.
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Cell Phone for Vehicle Communication
Business model to charge for car telecom
module as the second personal cell phone did
not work in 90’s.
In 2000’s transport telematics is a automanufacturer based MVNO service and
efforts are paid to promote providing useful
services for automobile users.
Although performance of Cell Phone does not
satisfy the requirement for ITS, appropriate
design to satisfy requirement should be
possible if new market is possible in future.
In 2000’s performance of LTE and 4G cell
phone is expected to have performance for
many vehicle applications.
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伝送速度
1G
LTE
200M
4G
100M
14M
10M
HSPA LTE release 8
1M
384k
WCDMA
100k
IMT
IMT advanced
10k
PDC
9.6k
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05
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ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2010 – Beyond the Internet? Innovations for future networks and services
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Round trip time and speed of B3G
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Pedestrian
Travelers
Vehicle to Vehicle Communications
Ｕｂｉｑｕｉｔｏｕｓ Wireless
Communications
Centers
Fixed
Fixed Point
Point to
to Point
Point
Communications
Communications
Vehicle
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ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2010 – Beyond the Internet? Innovations for future networks and services
Field
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Cell Phone standards can be unified after the history
日(1979)
MOVA
日(1993)
PDC
WCDMA
(2000)
欧(1981)
NMT
欧(1993)
GSM
TD-SCDMA
US(1982)
AMPS
US(1990)
Digital AMPS
US(1989)
Dyna TAC
1975
1985
analogue
cdma2000
(IS95)
cdma One(IS54)
(1995)
1995
digital
（中国）
LTE → 4G
(2010)
CDMA
2005
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ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2010 – Beyond the Internet? Innovations for future networks and services
OFDM
2015
24
Prediction of LTE （Japan）
180000000
160000000
140000000
契約数
120000000
100000000
LTE
TD-SCDMA
WiMAX
WCDMA
WCDMA
PDC
Others
LTE
80000000
HSPA/HSPA+
GSM
60000000
HSPA
CDMA2000
40000000
20000000
0
2009 2010 2011 2012CDMA2000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
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Prediction of LTE （US）
400000000
350000000
LTE
300000000
TD-SCDMA
契約数
250000000
HSPA
WiMAX
WCDMA
PDC
200000000
Others
LTE
HSPA/HSPA+
150000000
GSM
GSM
CDMA2000
100000000
50000000
CDMA2000
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
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contents
Changes in IT environments
Communication Services for vehicles
Market Growth through M2M
communication
Pune, India, 13 – 15 Dec 2010:
ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2010 – Beyond the Internet? Innovations for future networks and services
27
Traditional technology developments
Communication system for human use
Broadband communication wireless and wireline
Multimedia applications for human market
Extension of range without repeater.
Mobility management of human speed.
Security to keep network
Cost reduction by expansion of market
Recent requests for low carbon systems
Pune, India, 13 – 15 Dec 2010:
ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2010 – Beyond the Internet? Innovations for future networks and services
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Broad Range of Requirements for
Machine to Machine Communication
Latency for Setup
0.1msec ～ 10msec ～ 1sec ～ 100sec
Distance of Communication
0.01m ～ 1m ～ 100m ～ 10km ～ 1000km
Data Speed
1b/s ～ 100b/s ～ 10kb/s ～ 1Mb/s ～ 100Mb/s
Coverage
point, surrounding, linear, plane(operator, national ,global)
Addressing
location, person, vehicle, machine, situation
Error rate
10-9, 10-7, 10-5, 10-3, 10-1
Technology life
5 years, 10 years, 20years, 100years
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An Example of Performance Requirement for Vehicle Service
100sec
latency
Current Networks
Internet
POTS
1sec
10msec
0.1msec
Vehicle
Networks
distance
1m
100m
10km
1000km
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Communication performance requirement for
intersection safety warning
Latency for Setup
Distance of Communication
Data Speed
Coverage
Addressing
10msec
1m ～ 100m
100b/s ～ 10kb/s
surrounding
location
Error rate
Life of technology
10-5 ～ 10-3
roadside 50 years
vehicle
20 years
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Communication performance requirement for
intersection collision avoidance
Latency for Setup
Distance of Communication
Data Speed
Coverage
Addressing
Error rate
Life of technology
10msec
1m ～ 100m
100b/s ～ 10kb/s
surrounding, linear
location
10-9 ～ 10-5
roadside 50 years
vehicle
20 years
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Communication performance requirement for
mayday support
Latency for Setup
Distance of Communication
Data Speed
Coverage
Addressing
Error rate
Life of technology
1sec ～ 100sec
10km ～ 1000km
10kb/s ～ 1Mb/s
plane (global :cross border)
vehicle, machine
10-5 ～ 10-3
roadside 50 years
vehicle
20 years
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Requirements for Cellular Network
Business model of Cellular network to support small data
traffic is needed.
Keeping track many terminals having low traffic is needed.
Possible number of vehicles to be served by cellular network is
also be a problem.
Major issue for DSRC is difficulty in investment just for vehicle,
especially in low traffic density area.
Common use of infrastructure for ITS and telematics will be a
solution.
To keep the cost low for safety application is to be studied
including new protocol common with another M2M services.
Study of common requirements for M2M communication is a
challenge for new telecommunication market.
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