Kick off presentation on ICT and Climate Change - perspective

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Kick off presentation on
ICT and Climate Change a wireless and mobile
perspective
Hans-Otto Scheck
Helmut Schink
Margit Brandl
Geneva Meeting
1-3 September
2008
International
Telecommunication
Union
New services and applications are booming
and require very high speed connections
>50Mbit/s
Consumer generated content
Photo
Encyclopedia
Video
Travel
Social Networking
Social networks
Weblogs
Communities
Video
Generaccion Comcel
Subscriber’s behavior has changed from pure consumption
to active participation
2
Usage of Internet based services is growing
+150 %
Watching Film,
TV or Video
Clips
Top 5
Growth
Areas
+42 %
Ratings &
Reviews
+18 %
TV & Film
Downloads
+17 %
Podcasting
+15 %
P2P File
Sharing
Interactivity adds value to an operator’s service offering
3
Bandwidth requirements of modern
public & business applications rise
E-Medicine
Video conferencing
“Presence”
Seeing
E-Learning
VoIP
Hearing
Collaborative Desktop Apps
Sharing
VPN
Reading
Online Backup
Rising user
experience
Bandwidth (Mbps)
1
10
100
Source: Telework Consortium / Own
Nielsen’s Law of rising bandwidth requirements can also be applied to the
revenue generating business sector
4
Applications and mobility requirements
Mobility basic requirement
Laptop apps
Online Backup
VPN
Mobile phone
On the move
Corporate IT
Fixed or mobile
Video conferencing
Mobile phone
E-Medicine
In the office
E-Learning
Home theater
Camera
WLAN with
Video on demand
VDSL / FTTH
Desktop apps
Mobile phone
1
10
100
At home
Bandwidth (Mbps)
5
Fixed vs. mobile – it’s a “last mile” discussion
The bulk of data traffic is served by fixed networks, the last mile to the enduser is fixed or wireless, depending on user requirements
6
Fixed broadband access will continue to offer higher
data rates than wireless
160
Wireline (Copper)
Wireline
NG PON
(Fiber)
Wireline (Chopper)
140
Wireline (Fiber)
FTTB/C
Wireless (Cellular
120
User Data Rate (Mbps)
FTTH/B/C
DSM L3
FTTH/B/C
GPON
100
Wireline
(Copper)
80
FTTB/C
60
VDSL2
FTTH
BPON
DSM L3
40
ADSL2+
20
FTTEx
VDSL
ADSL
HSDPA
UMTS
0
2000
LTE
ADSL2
2002
2004
2006
Wireless
HSDPA (MIMO)
2008
2010
The fixed user data rate is today some 30 times that of wireless, and both a
have similar evolutionary trajectory
FTTH/B/C: Fiber to the Home/Building/Curb
FTTEx: Fiber to the Exchange with copper connection to the subscriber
7
Data rates are only one part the story
¾ The data rate comparison ignores the impact of
range / distance of different technologies
¾ Fixed access can provide significantly higher data
rates over a considerably longer range
¾ Mobility can be only provided by wireless
¾ Faster rollout of uncovered areas with wireless
¾ Cheaper coverage of scarcely populated areas with
wireless
¾ Different CAPEX / OPEX distribution
Fixed and wireless are complementary technologies
8
Data rates vs. range for cellular systems
100MB/s
MB/s
kB/s
Voice only
100m
1000m
10000m
Wide area wireless systems are limited to ~100MB/s
Higher data rates are only feasible for local area coverage
9
Energy efficiency of fixed and wireless
ƒ 3B mobile subscriptions produce ~22Mt/a CO2
ƒ 0.4B fixed broadband connections emit about
the same amount
ƒ There are more mobile subscriptions than
users
ƒ There are more users than broadband
connections
ƒ There’s a completely different usage pattern of
fixed and mobile networks
We have currently no suitable scale to compare energy efficiency of fixed
and wireless access
10
Only fiber has the potential to cover the
growing data traffic in future
• Multimedia Home
• Broadcast TV / VoD
• Fast Internet
• Media
Streaming
• Tele-working
¾ TV Channels, VoD
¾ 10 Mbps
¾ Voice POTS & VoIP
¾ Mbps
¾ Voice POTS
Curb
Curb
Curb
Central / Local Office
2004
Entertainment
¾
¾
¾
¾
Curb
Central / Local Office
Fiber to the Node
(Curb / Building)
Copper / Fiber
ADSL2+ VDSL2
Central Office
Copper
ADSL
2001
Curb
• Multi channel
2008
Copper
Fiber
HDTV Channels, VoD
100 Mbps and more
Voice VoIP
Home Control &
Security
Curb
Central / Local Office
Fiber to the Home
Fiber
PON, Ethernet ptp
2010
Time
11
Fiber is a „green technology“: Enormous
energy savings reduce also OPEX
Example: 100.000 subscribers
GPON Energy and Cost efficiency
Energy MWh/Y Cost M€/Y
1400
1200
80 % Energy
& Cost savings
By replacing
ADSL2+
With PON *)
1000
800
600
Copper access based on ADSL2+
• 16 Mbit/s
• Energy Consumption:
1314 MWh/year = 775t CO2
FTTH network based on GPON
• 100 Mbit/s
• Energy Consumption:
262 MWh/year = 154t CO2
400
200
0
ADSL2+
Energy Consumption (MWh/y)
PON FTTH
Cost (k€/Y)
*) Costs for air conditioning are not considered
12
The telecom & ICT can leverage energy consumption
in other areas
Source: GeSi press release June 2008
ICT’s global footprint:
830MtCO2e (2007)
ICT’s abatement potential:
1430MtCO2e (2020)
7800MtCO2e (2020)
13
Thank You!
International
Telecommunication
Union
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