International Telecommunication Union
Shaping the future mobile
information society:
The case of the Kingdom of Norway
Eric Lie
ITU Strategy and Policy Unit
New Initiatives Workshop on
Shaping the Future Mobile
Information Society
Seoul, Korea
4 - 5 March 2004
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The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do
not necessarily reflect the opinions of the ITU or its Membership.
International Telecommunication Union
Mobile overtakes fixed
Fixed vs. mobile (NMT, GSM, GSM Prepaid ) subscriptions
4'500'000
GSM prepaid
4'000'000
GSM subscriptions
3'500'000
NMT
3'000'000
PSTN and ISDN
subscriptions
2'500'000
2'000'000
1'500'000
1'000'000
500'000
0
1994
2
Source: NPT
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
International Telecommunication Union
Who uses mobile telephony?
Daily mobile and fixed telephony use by gender and by age, 2001
100
90
80
70
Mobile - Men
60
Mobile - Women
Fixed - Men
50
Fixed - Women
40
30
20
10
0
9 - 12
13 - 15
16 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 34
Age
3
Source: Telenor R&D
35 - 44
45 - 54
55 - 66
67 - 79
International Telecommunication Union
Trends in voice traffic
Volume of traffic, millions of minutes, 1998 - 2002
25'000
Mil. minutes
20'000
Mobile to fixed
Mobile to mobile
Fixed to mobile
Fixed to fixed
15'000
10'000
5'000
0
1998
4
Source: NPT
1999
2000
2001
2002
International Telecommunication Union
The world in 160 characters
700
SMS messages sent per user
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1999
5
Source: NPT
2000
2001
2002
Average
number of
SMS
messages
sent per user
per annum,
1999 - 2002
International Telecommunication Union
“Youth” and SMS
Daily SMS use by age and gender, 2001
100
Men
90
Women
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
13 - 15
16 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 34
35 - 44
Age
6
Source: Telenor R&D
45 - 54
55 - 66
67 - 79
International Telecommunication Union
Premium services & MMS
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International Telecommunication Union
Why mobile?
! Geography and demographics
• Long distances and a harsh landscape
• High per capita income
! Competitive market environment
• Healthy price competition
! Perceptions and attitudes
• Technology and things Scandinavian
• Lifestyle
! An early start
• Manual services introduced in 1966
• Optimistic forecasting
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International Telecommunication Union
Telepriser.no
9
International Telecommunication Union
Mobile and technology
Annual growth in subscriptions: Manually operated, NMT and GSM
80%
70%
Introduction
of GSM
60%
Introduction
of NMT 450
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1970
10
1972
Source: NPT
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
International Telecommunication Union
Optimistic forecasting
Operator forecasts for mobile telephones per 1000 inhabitants,
Nordic countries and selected European countries, 1986 - 1990
40
35
30
25
Nordic Countries
20
Selected European
Countries
15
10
5
0
1985
1986
1987
1988
11
Source: CEPT/ELT/ESE documents 1985.
1989
1990
June
1990
International Telecommunication Union
Thank you
http://www.itu.int/futuremobile
Eric Lie
eric.lie@itu.int
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