https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5t08CLczdK4
John Harrington, Jr.
Department of Geography, Kansas State University
Panelists
Doug Kluck, Central Region Climate Services Director, NOAA
Stacy Hutchinson, Biological and Agricultural Engineering,
Kansas State University, Urban Water Institute Director
Ed Peterson, Johnson County Commissioner
• Institute activities focus on creating lasting positive
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Understanding Climate Change
and the Implications for Kansas City:
Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Possible Adaptations
Why now?
An updated message:
- Release of the 5th assessment by
Working Group II of the IPCC
- Earlier today in Japan
- IPCC = Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (WMO & UN)
- Working Group II: Impacts,
Adaptation and Vulnerability
- 4th Assessment was released in 2007
- Plus, an updated National Climate Assessment is soon be released
- 2009, Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States
- Plus, we now have the five volume set: America’s Climate choices
2009
Why don’t they get it?
The ‘loading dock’ model
for education:
If I just drop off another
load of good science, …
The Six Americas
http://environment.yale.edu/climate/files/Knowledge Across Six Americas.pdf
Circle sizes are very likely to be different with various sub-populations:
members of the Tea Party, those under 30, college graduates, …
Understanding Climate Change
What is Climate?
“Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get”
Climate is like your personality, weather is your mood
you buy clothes based on climate,
what you wear depends on the weather
Two mindsets: older = the average weather (statistics)
actually the synthesis of all weather (includes extremes)
newer = a system that we study with climate science
models helps us refine our understanding of the system
are we ‘messin’ with the system?
Energy
Climate = the synthesis of weather (= a cloud of events)
In this illustration, a weather event (a storm) would be a cloud
droplet ( ) and climate would be the whole cloud
Climate change is illustrated by the shift in location, shape, and
the darker tone for the cloud)
.
.
.
. . .. .
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
. . .
.
Wind
The arrow represents a
change in statistical
properties of climate; a
change in the centroid.
The vertical axis of the
change vector might be
a measure of ‘warming’
while the x-axis
represents a change to
wetter conditions.
Precipitation
Within the past few years, several peer-reviewed articles
have identified specific weather events as being caused
by ‘global warming’
Some in the
science community
collect and analyze
data – develop
those averages
and standard
deviations
Others build
physically-based
models in an effort
to increase our
understanding of
how the system
works
My retort (and I have considered the consequences)
I’ve understood the physics for about 3 decades
1986 publication from the Scientific Committee on
Problems in the Environment (SCOPE)
Doubling CO2 will cause a 2.5°C temperature rise
“Climate models with enhanced greenhouse gas
concentrations have projected temperature increases of
2° to 4° C, winter precipitation increases of up to 15
percent, and summer precipitation decreases of 5 to 10
percent in the central United States by the year 2030.”
“If the models are correct it will likely take at least
another 40 years before statistically significant
precipitation changes are detected and another decade
or two to detect the projected changes of temperature.”
Are the numbers changing?
Mt Pinatubo
Let’s go into the Lion’s Den
The findings from a Koch Bros funded study by the
Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) group
The planet is warming and it is driven by CO2
Also - modulated with short-term volcanic cooling
During the 20th Century, the planet warmed at a rate of
0.06°C per decade; that rate increased to
0.18°C per decade for the last 3 decades.
1998
1999
Trend Skepticism
“there is no warming trend”
Since 1998
the ‘hiatus’ or ‘the pause’
Statistical correlation:
Maybe we get a ‘pause’
during PDO cold phases
The 2012 drought and heat wave
Was it related to climate change?
Influenced by it – J. Hansen & loaded ‘climate dice’
Some argue
the numbers
are changing
Climate science:
Have we messed with things?
The Anthropocene
Planetary Boundaries
An ozone hole
The 6th great extinction
The nitrogen cycle
Land surface cover change
The hydrologic cycle
The carbon cycle
Scientists have measured a steady increase in carbon
dioxide [CO2] in the global atmosphere since 1958
CO2 levels are now at about 400 ppm (up 42%)
CO2 levels were at
315ppm at the start of
the Mauna Loa record.
The CO2 level for
pre-industrial times
was 280 ppm.
Annual cycle – driven
by summer
vegetation greenup
in the Northern
Hemisphere
Lower values at the
end of the growing
season
The atmospheric stock
Flux into the
ocean
Humans
changing
things
Values are in
gigatons or
fluxes in
gigatons/yr
Flux to the atmos
The Arctic “Death Spiral”
Dr. Mark Serreze
2010
“There are claims
coming from some
communities that the
Arctic sea ice is
recovering, is getting
thicker again. That’s
simply not the case.
It’s continuing down in a
death spiral.”
The loss of
Arctic Sea ice.
Ocean warming
and change =
another
inconvenient
truth
Global warming
From an article published in 1996
Assigning physical values of energy flux (Wm-2)
to the Earth’s energy budget
A 2009
update
341.3 Wm-2
- 101.9
- 238.5
+ 0.9 Wm-2
Trenberth, K.E., Fasullo, J.T., and Kiehl, J. (2009) Earth’s Global Energy
Budget, in Bulletin of the AMS, Vol 90, pp 311-323.
Latest data suggest the system is temporarily out of balance
with most of the absorbed E going into the oceans
An other update in 2013
Improved numbers – same conclusion (an imbalance)
• Warmer areas on Earth will
emit slightly shorter
wavelengths and water
vapor is the main GHG
• Cooler areas on Earth will
emit slightly longer
wavelength energy and CO2
is the main GHG
Global pattern of temperature anomalies for 2000-2009
compared with the 1950-1980 base period.
More CO2 and cold places warm up.
0.08
Month-by-month pattern of global
temperature anomalies
for 1981-2010
compared with the 1950-1980 base period.
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
-0.02
-0.04
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
With more CO2, warming is occurring during
Northern Hemisphere winter as physics would predict
CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data
Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from
Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843.
Ice Age Forcings
Imply Global Climate
Sensitivity
~ ¾°C per W/m2.
Source: Hansen et al.,
Natl. Geogr. Res. &
Explor., 9, 141, 1993.
From NASA Scientist Jim Hansen’s talk on Dec 6th 2005
at the American Geophysical Union Meetings
Harrington’s conclusion: yes, we’ve messed with things
What is happening here?
Data for Olathe 3E
90.0
32
30
85.0
28
80.0
26
75.0
24
70.0
20
22
18
65.0
16
30
10
0
-10
-20
1931
1935
1939
1943
1947
1951
1955
1959
1963
1967
1971
1975
1979
1983
1987
1991
1995
1999
2003
2007
-30
2006
2001
1996
1991
1986
1981
July day-night temperature range
20
Annual departure
from the long term
average precipitation
of 38.6”
1976
1971
1966
1961
1956
1951
1946
1941
12
1936
2006
14
1931
July average temperature
2001
1996
1991
1986
1981
1976
1971
1966
1961
1956
1951
1946
1941
1936
1931
60.0
M. Schwartz 1995 Annals of the AAG Vol 85: 553-568
Detecting Structural Climate Change: An Air Mass Based
Approach in the North Central United States, 1958-1992
C = Continental
Pa = Pacific
Po = Polar
D = Dry Tropical
dT = dilute Tropical
T = Tropical
Subtropical
http://www.climateandenergy.org/LearnMore/In
TheNews/ClimateStudy.htm
Kansas Climate and Global Warming:
Agricultural and Other Economic Impacts
Wayne M Wendland 1993 Trans. Kansas Academy of Science 96:161-166
• By mid-21st Century (double CO2)
• Warming by approx 9ºF
• Heating degree days cut by 40%
• Cooling degree days up by 170%
• Precip about the same
• Ag implications (dramatic!)
• Increase in growing degree days
• Increased moisture stress
• Corn yields down 19% in northeast KS
Done by continent, then by major system:
ecosystems, food & fiber, coastal, human
settlements, human health, hydrology
1998
“The Great Plains area, for example, relies
heavily on crop and livestock production and,
as a result, is potentially vulnerable to climatic
change …” p. 258
“Semi-arid and arid ecosystems are considered
among the most sensitive because these
ecosystems often are water limited and have
marginal nutrient reserves.” p. 269
“A warmer climate will likely increase the
demand for irrigation water for agriculture.” p.
284
“Livestock is sensitive to climate through
impacts on feed and forage crops, through the
direct effects of weather and extreme events
on animal health, and through changes in
livestock diseases …” p. 285
Climate Change and Kansas
What might we expect to see?
• Warmer temperatures in both winter
and summer
• More frequent and longer lasting heat
waves
• Less soil moisture during the growing
season
• More extreme events
• Declines in available water resources
• There is the potential for more and
longer lasting drought
• The changes might not be gradual; we
may have to deal with ‘non-linear’
system responses and rapid transitions
to new states
What are the impacts?
1. Global warming is unequivocal and
primarily human-induced.
2. Climate changes are underway in the
United States and are projected to
grow.
3. Widespread climate-related impacts
are occurring now and are
expected to increase.
4. Climate change will stress water
resources.
5. Crop and livestock production will
be increasingly challenged.
http://downloads.globalchange.gov/usimpacts/pdfs/climate-impacts-report.pdf
What are the impacts?
More extreme events – heat waves
with higher humidity
2. More extreme events – intense rain
storms
3. Warmer overnight temperatures
4. More moisture for winter storms
5. Warmer winter average
temperatures
6. Weird stuff – no analog world
http://downloads.globalchange.gov/usimpacts/pdfs/climate-impacts-report.pdf
From the draft of the new National Climate Assessment
Projected changes by mid-century
compared to 1971-2000
• Cities have become increasingly spread out,
complex, and interconnected with regional and
national economies and infrastructure.
• Cities also experience a host of social problems,
including neighborhood degradation, traffic
congestion, crime, unemployment, poverty, and
inequities in health and well-being.
• Climate-related changes such as increased heat,
water shortages, and extreme weather events will
add further stress to existing problems.
• The impacts of climate change on cities are
compounded by aging infrastructure, buildings,
and populations, as well as air pollution and
population growth.
Regarding implications of climate change for
infrastructures in the United States, we find that:
Extreme weather events associated with climate change
will increase disruptions of infrastructure services in
some locations
Disruptions of services in one infrastructure will almost always result in
disruptions in one or more other infrastructures, especially in urban
systems, triggering serious cross-sectoral cascading infrastructure
system failures in some locations, at least for short periods of time
These risks are greater for infrastructures that are:
Located in areas exposed to extreme weather events
Located at or near particularly climate-sensitive environmental
features, such as coastlines, rivers, storm tracks, and vegetation in arid
areas
Already stressed by age and/or by demand levels that exceed what
they were designed to deliver
Regarding implications of climate change
for urban systems in the United States,
we find that:
Urban systems are vulnerable to extreme weather events that will become
more intense, frequent, and/or longer-lasting with climate change
Urban systems are vulnerable to climate change impacts on regional
infrastructures on which they depend
Urban systems and services will be affected by disruptions in relatively
distant locations due to linkages through national infrastructure networks
and the national economy
Cascading system failures related to infrastructure interdependencies will
increase threats to health and local economies in urban areas, especially in
locations vulnerable to extreme weather events
Such effects will be especially problematic for parts of the population that
are more vulnerable because of limited coping capacities
Kansas City is fortunate
to have seen misfortunate in the past
• Kansas City Flash Flood - October 4, 1998
• Flash flooding along Brush Creek, Turkey Creek
and Indian Creek - eleven lives lost
• The flash flood received national attention,
millions watched as the deluge swamped a
nationally televised football game between
the Chiefs and Seattle Seahawks.
• The heat wave is wearing us out
July 22, 2012 The Kansas City Star
By Steve Everly And Glenn E. Rice
• Kansas City’s weather Sunday wasn’t fit for
humans or beasts. Really.
• Most animals at the Kansas City Zoo don’t care for
the high temperatures any more than we do, not
even the lions and tigers that have genetic roots to
lands with sweltering summers
the record for the most consecutive
days with highs of 90° or above is 39
set back in 1934. Today will be our
28th day in a row with no end in sight
• Deaths from all causes in July 1980 increased by 57% and
64% in St Louis and Kansas City, respectively, but only 10%
in the predominantly rural areas of Missouri.
• About one of every 1,000 residents of the two cities was
hospitalized for or died of heat-related illness. Incidence
rates (per 100,000) of heatstroke, defined as severe heat
illness with documented hyperthermia, were 26.5 and
17.6 for St Louis and Kansas City, respectively.
• Public health preventive measures in future heat waves
should be directed toward the urban poor, the elderly,
and persons of other-than-white races.
Anticipating the release of the AR5
• As the just-released 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review affirms, the
U.S. military considers climate change a threat to national security.
Yet after Secretary of State John Kerry spoke in Jakarta, Indonesia,
comparing climate change to other transnational security threats,
his remarks were considered by some in the media as extraordinary.
• The truth is that the U.S. military reached this conclusion long ago.
• Indeed, Kerry was directly following the lead of four-star Navy
Admiral Samuel J. Locklear II, head of U.S. Pacific Command
(PACOM), who in a speech in Jakarta a year earlier also identified
climate change as the biggest security threat facing the region, with
the capacity to even “threaten the loss of entire nations.”
SCIENCE & ENVIRONMENT
24 March 2014 Last updated at 22:26 ET
Dissent among scientists over
key climate impact report
By Matt McGrath
Environment correspondent, BBC News, Yokohama
Senior scientists and government officials are meeting in Japan to
agree on a critical report on the impact of global warming.
Members of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
will publish their first update in seven years on the scale of the threat.
Leaked documents speak of significant effects on economies, food
supplies and security.
But some attendees say the summary, due out next Monday, is far too
alarmist.
By FRED PEARCE
• The draft of the latest report from the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warns that
the world faces serious risks from warming and that
the poor are especially vulnerable.
• … a new tone to its discussion of these issues that is
markedly different from past efforts. It is more humble
about what scientists can predict in advance, and far
more interested in how societies can make themselves
resilient.
• The ‘message’ has shifted from documenting dire
impacts, to finding solutions that integrate with broader
societal challenges.
• This is a welcome change.
What is different in the new report?
Rather than scaring us that climate will change
and the world as we know it will end
The new AR5 report attempts to get us reflecting on
risk potential and what we might do to minimize risk
Maeslant storm surge
barrier in Rotterdam,
Netherlands
Planting
mangroves in
Tuvalu
The co-production of knowledge and policy for adaptation,
mitigation, and development in urban systems.
Source: Adapted from Corfee-Morlot et al., 2011.
Reno-Tahoe emergency planners
prepare for 'cataclysmic flood event'
Mar. 17, 2014
http://www.rgj.com/article/20140317/LIV0802/303120102/
to prepare for an epic flood — an event of scope and scale so vast
that participants hope to never see in their lifetime, but which
history suggests will some day occur
a so-called “ARkstorm,” a massive one-two punch of snow and rain
that would swamp the Reno-Tahoe area in a flood far worse than
big ones experienced in recent history such as in January 1997
Complex issues – bring all the parties together
Can we create a more resilient system – an ability to cope when ‘shocks’ occur
USA Today cartoon from 209 just before
the UN Copenhagen climate summit
The Parable of the Boiled Frog
“If you drop a frog in a pot of boiling water, it will of
course frantically try to clamber out. But if you place it
gently in a pot of tepid water and turn the heat on low, it
will float there quite placidly. As the water gradually heats
up, the frog will sink into a tranquil stupor, exactly like one
of us in a hot bath, and before long, with a smile on its
face, it will unresistingly allow itself to be boiled to death.”
— from Daniel Quinn's 1996 The Story of B
When it comes to responding to a slow warming
trend, are we like the frog in the pot on the stove?
The Parable of the Boiled Frog
All organisms change their immediate
environment.
We have changed things –
what should we do?
who should provide the leadership?
when should we change?
“To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model
obsolete.”
Buckminster Fuller
“If at first the idea is not absurd, then there is no hope for it.”
Albert Einstein
“Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change
the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has.”
Margaret Mead
Thank you!
Malcolm Gladwell's excellent book on social epidemics
"The Tipping Point"
the book is about how change in behavior can spread like a virus
there are 3 distinguishing characteristics:
1 - contagiousness of the idea
2 - little causes having big effects
3 - not incremental or gradual change, but a dramatic moment
there are 3 agents of change:
1 - the Law of the Few - a very small number of people play critical roles
2 - the Stickiness Factor - ideas need to connect
3 - the Power of Context - the environment - and it could be the
smallest of details that needs to be right
http://www.merchantsofdoubt.org/
“[A] fascinating and important study ...
Merchants of Doubt deserves a wide readership.
It is tempting to require that all those engaged
in the business of conveying scientific
information to the general public should read
it.”—Science
Climate Science (models of the future) and the scholars who study
the system suggest we should be very concerned for the future, but
the “Merchants of Doubt” have had an impact