54th Annual
Transportation Research Forum
An Analysis of California Agricultural Transportation: Origins,
Destinations, Modal Competition and Industry Perspectives
Mechel Paggi & Fumiko Yamazaki
Center for Agricultural Business
California State University at Fresno
Jay Noel, Sean Hurley & Michael McCullough
Department of Agricultural Business
California Polytechnic State University at San Luis Obispo
March 23, 2013
Annapolis, Maryland
• Overview of Study
• Modal Choice
• Trucker and Shipper Perspectives
• Competitive Market Analysis
• Carbon Offset Duty Calculations
• The Rest of the Story
• Summary Remarks
www.csufcab.com
Overview of the Study
Understanding the Current Situation : What is Going Where and How?
Analyze Data on Delivery of California Specialty Crops to Major
Metropolitan Areas
Analyze Data on Exports of California Specialty Crops: Air and Water
Movements
Analyze Modal Choice for Domestic Shipments
Total / Specific Commodities
Survey California Truck Shipper and Truckers Survey
Analyze California Specialty Crop Competitiveness
Transportation and Relative Costs Components
Examine Transportation Environmental Impacts
Domestically: What is Going Where and How?
Total Shipments
Shipments in 100,000 lb. Units
Varying Degree of Perishability
Export Shipments
Air & Water*
Percent of Total Value
18% for 08’s Veg
44% for 07’s F&TN
• Future Study Planned for Truck Cross Border Trade with Mexico and Canada and Look at Import Flows
Air Shipments - For Export
< 2%
21%
Air Shipments - For Export
Air Shipments - For Export
< 1%
<40%
Waterborne Shipments - For Export
4%
Oxnard
22%
Nuts
Citrus
Apples
Fresh Grapes
Waterborne Shipments - For Export
Traffic Congestion/Environmental Issues; Chassis and Equipment Availability Issues
Labor (truckers and stevedores); Slow Steaming; etc.
Trucks Rule
An Industry Perspective
Shipper and Trucker Survey
Industry Perspectives
Truckers
Industry Perspectives
Truckers
Industry Perspectives
Shippers
Industry Perspectives
Industry Perspectives
15 Key Domestic Destinations
Atlanta GA
Baltimore MD
Boston MA
Chicago IL
Columbia SC
Dallas TX
Detroit MI
Los Angeles CA
Miami FL
New York NY
Philadelphia PA
Pittsburg PA
San Francisco CA
Seattle WA
St. Louis MO
Examined Production Area and Destination
Information to Document Modal Shares
Example for Celery
Figure 6.20. Strawberry Delivered Cost per Box by Production Region for 2010 Quarter 1
GHG Emissions Accounting
Largely Driven by the Perception of Consumer
Demands for “Green” Attributes, Large Buyers
Are Encouraging ( Demanding/Giving Credit For)
Green House Gas Emissions Accounting
Carbon Offset Duty
For Example
• Wal-Mart has announced a potential plan to label
each of its products with a sustainability rating
and has subsequently requested that every WalMart supplier provide its GHG footprint, a direct
measure of climate impact.*
• Tesco, the British-based supermarket chain has
begun carbon labeling some of its products and
intends to expand efforts to all 70,000 of its
products (Bridges 2008).
• Both Japan and France have trial governmental
programs in place for carbon labeling (Baddeley,
2011).
* See http://walmartstores.com/Sustainability/9292.aspx for more information on Wal-Mart’s “Sustainability Index.”
In Our Study We Have Focused On
Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG)
Specifically CO2
Why?
Preferred Conveyance to Minimize Emissions
297
25.2
Carbon Offset Duty Calculation
• GHG Emissions Estimate: Mass Balance Approach
• Alternative Estimation Methodology?
Objective Function Dependent
How Precise Do You Need to Be?
*Truck
Example, Industry Collaborator Inputs
Example Fixed Input Table
C02 Emissions
California Fresh Produce Transport to Destination
Carbon Offset Duty: Celery
•
•
•
•
California to Boston Truck = 5.22 tons;
Price of MT of CO2 Range: $2.75 - $2915; High End Estimate $25.35
Per Truckload Cost of Carbon Offset Value of $132.33
Origin-Destination Truck Rates for Selected Routes and
Commodities, 2nd Quarter 2011 California to Boston , Celery,
$7,212 **
• Carbon Offset Duty + 1.8%
• Boston Terminal Market Celery @ $19 per 55lb. carton
Carbon Offset Duty Around $0.01 per pound (delivery only)
Note: Actual Carbon Credits Sold for $10.09 in January Auction Lower than $14.60 est.
* Reuters Oct 3, 2011, 03.51pm IST ; ** USDA/AMS Ag Refrigerated Truck Quaterly , April – June, 2011.
The Rest of the Story
Over the Road Miles Only Part of the Transport Story
Transportation Only Part of the Issue
Food Climate Research Network
“Transportation as a whole represents only 11% of
Life-cycle GHG emissions, and final delivery from
Producer to retail contributes only 4%. “
Green House Gas Solutions
Require Global Action
Summary & Implications
Observations
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•
•
•
Market Demand for Variety Creates Need for Transport (Local may be desirable, but not
practical for certain products)
Alternative Transport Scenarios Difficult if not Impossible in Foreseeable Future; Trucks will
Continue to be the Major Mover
Dominance of Truck Mode Provides Definable Set of Issues: Infrastructure Capacity,
Environmental, Industry Structure, etc.
Changes are needed but Who Pays The Costs?
Needs
•
•
•
•
Better data on shipment numbers/destinations by mode.
Leads to Better data & accountability to quantify the costs
Measures of total system emissions and identification of choke points ( high emissions areas)
Development and Analysis of Options for the Existing System