International Telecommunication Union
Developments in the
ICT Sector
Trends in
Telecommunication
Reform 20042004-2005
Global Symposium for Regulators
8-10 December
Doreen Bogdan-Martin
Head, Regulatory Reform Unit
Telecommunication Development Bureau (BDT)
International Telecommunication Union
Revenues from public switched telephone, cellular mobile and other
oth er
telecommunication networks worldwide, 19931993-2003 and 2003, in
current USD billions
Global service revenue trends, in current US$ billions
1'200
1'000
Data and other
Data and
other,
19.1%
800
600
Mobile
400
International fixed telephone
200
Domestic fixed telephone
0
1993
95
97
99
01
Mobile,
37.7%
2003
Domestic
fixed
telephone,
38.9%
Int'l fixed,
telephone,
4.4%
Global service revenues, 2003 Total = US$1.1 trillion
Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database
International Telecommunication Union
ICT Users Worldwide 1991–
1991–mid 2004
Telephone and Internet Users
World, Millions
1'500
1'000
Fixed-line
Internet
users
500
Mobile
0
1991
94
97
2000
03
Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database
International Telecommunication Union
Cellular mobile users mid
id--2004 and mobile users added 20002000- mid
2004; number of Internet users 2003, and new Internet users added,
added,
2000--2003
2000
1.48 billion
739 million
Developing
691 million
56.0%
78.5%
39.1%
332 million
Developing
66.2%
44.0%
Developed
21.5%
60.9%
Mid-2004 Installed
base
Cellular mobile subscribers
New subscribers
added, 2000-Mid
2004
Developed
33.8%
2003 Installed
base
Internet Users
Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database
New users
added, 20002003
International Telecommunication Union
102 million broadband subscribers
by end 2003
B r o a d b a n d s u b s c r i b e r s w o r l d w i d e , million
120
15.3%
Broadband
subscribers as a
percentage of
Internet users
100
80
60
11.2%
7.33%
40
1.25%
20
3.96%
0.56%
0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Source: ITU Internet Reports 2004 “ The Portable Internet”
International Telecommunication Union
Trends in international
voice traffic on public
switched telephone
networks (PSTN) and Voice
over IP (VoIP
(VoIP))
1997--2003
1997
International traffic (billions of minutes)
180
160
VoIP
140
PSTN
120
As % of total
100
13.1%
11.8%
80
60
7.4%
40
4.8%
20
0
0.01%
0.2%
1997
1998
1.6%
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Revenue and average price of international traffic
70
60
50
68
63
40
58
51
30
44
39
33
20
10
Revenue (US$bn)
Price per minute (US cents)
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
International Telecommunication Union
The legal status of competition in different global
telecommunication market segments
in 2004
Monopoly
Competition
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Basic
services
Leased lines
Wireless
local loop
Cellular
Cable TV
VSAT
ISPs
Source: ITU World Telecommunication Regulatory Database
International Telecommunication Union
Ownership Status of the Incumbent Operator
Privatization by region,
percentage, mid 2004
from 1991 to 2004
Countries
160
Private
State-owned
140
120
100
partly or fully private
incumbent operators, 2004
80
60
40
20
0
1991
1993
1995
1999
2001
2004
Source: ITU World Telecommunication Regulatory Database
International Telecommunication Union
Trends: National Regulatory Authorities
Worldwide and Percentage per Region
Regulatory
agencies, world
(cumulative)
132
117
106
94
86
75
56
Percentage of regulators in each region
43
27
34
17
20
04
200
1
200
0
19
99
19
98
19
97
199
6
19
95
19
94
Americas
199
3
19
92
19
91
199
0
14
31
88%
Africa
81%
Europe
Arab States
Asia-Pacific
73%
48%
50%
Source: ITU World Telecommunication Regulatory Database.
International Telecommunication Union
Other Regulatory Trends
§ Freeing spectrum for use by ever growing
numbers of wireless devices
§ Authorizing greater use of VoIP
§ Considering regulation of VoIP
§ Combating Spam
International Telecommunication Union
Spam Growth
Spam as a percentage of all email worldwide (MessageLabs)
80
70
Spam as a percentage of
all email worldwide
(Brightmail)
60
50
40
65%
48%
30
20
32%
10
0
Nov Dec Jan Feb Apr Mar May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
'03
'04
'04
8%
June '01
June '02
June '03
June '04
International Telecommunication Union
Trends in Telecommunication Reform
2004/05
Chapter 1:
Chapter 2:
Chapter 3:
Chapter 4:
Chapter 5:
Chapter 6:
Chapter 7:
Chapter 8:
DEVELOPMENTS IN THE ICT SECTOR
WHY LICENSE?
OPTIONS FOR TELECOMMUNICATION
LICENSING
LICENCE FEE PRACTICES: HISTORICAL
PERSPECTIVES AND NEW TRENDS
LICENSING APPROACHES IN AN ERA OF
CONVERGENCE
CONVERGENCE AND SPECTRUM
LICENSING
TRANSITIONING REGULATION FROM OLD
TO NEW
A NEW ERA IN LICENSING
International Telecommunication Union
http://www.itu.int/ITU--D/treg/
http://www.itu.int/ITU