A 10-year Outlook for the Canadian
Labour Market
(COPS 2009 Reference Projection)
Part 1: Labour Demand: the Jobs of the Future
January 5, 2010
Policy Research Directorate, Strategic Policy and Research Branch
Macro-Economic Reference Scenario 2009 – Key Messages
Years prior to the recession:
− Solid performance of the Canadian economy, with resource boom bringing
substantial gains in terms of trade and national income, leading to strong job
creation in most sectors and a fall in the unemployment rate to 30-year lows
− But challenges for the manufacturing sector: globalization, higher
materials/energy costs, and substantial appreciation of the Canadian dollar
Changes from Reference 2008:
− In the short term, much weaker growth in GDP and employment, and slightly
stronger growth thereafter
− On average, growth relatively unchanged for the full 10 years
Current versus previous two recessions:
− Canada's current recession is typical: slightly faster fall, slightly shorter duration
− Full recovery in GDP and employment to pre-recession levels by 2011
− Smaller increase and faster recovery to pre-recession low in the unemployment
rate due to slower labour force growth
Next decade versus previous decade:
− Slower growth in GDP and employment, mostly due to demographics
2
The global financial crisis has led to the deepest world
recession since the Great Depression, ...
World Real GDP Growth
percentage change
8
Oil supply shocks
in 1973 and 1979
World high-tech
boom and bust
6
Global financial crisis and
deepest world recession
since the Great Depression
4
1970-2014
Average
2
Asian financial and
economic crisis
0
-2
US savings and loan crisis
+ Gulf War oil shock
-4
China joined
WTO
Global responses
from fiscal and monetary
authorities
1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook Database.
3
... but the decline in Canadian real GDP in this recession has
not been worse than in the previous two downturns
Canadian Real GDP Growth
percentage change
8
6
1970-2018
Average
4
2
0
-2
1991 recession
1981-82 recession
2009 recession
-4
1970
1976
1982
1988
1994
2000
2006
Sources: 1970-2008: Statistics Canada, Economic Accounts.
2009-2018: HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2009 Reference Scenario.
2012
2018
4
Slower population growth and population ageing will restrain
the economy’s capacity to expand in the longer term
Real Canadian GDP
Actual
2008 Projection
2009 Projection
$ Billions 2006
1,700
Slower population growth
and population ageing
1,500
Globalization and higher demand from
emerging economies leading to a
favourable increase in our terms of trade
1,300
1,100
900
Average Annual Growth:
2009-2018: +2.4%
1999-2008: +3.0%
Substantial
responses from
fiscal and monetary
authorities
Tightening in monetary policy to
fight higher inflation
Low fiscal policy leverage due to
high budget deficits
U.S. housing collapse and
global financial crisis
leading to worldwide
recession
700
FTA (1989) and
NAFTA (1994)
500
1976
1982
1988
1994
2000
2006
2012
Sources: Statistics Canada, Economic Accounts.
2009-2018: HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2008 and 2009 Reference Scenarios.
Note: Shaded bars represent recessions.
2018
5
Potential output growth of the Canadian economy will be
limited by labour availability
Decomposition of Potential Output Growth
(Average annual contribution to potential output growth, by input; in per cent)
2003-07
2008-13
2014-18
Recession
Recovery
(2008-09)
(2010-13)
Labour
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.4
Capital
1.0
1.3
1.2
1.3
Total Factor Productivity
0.7
0.3
0.4
0.7
Potential Output
2.4
2.1
2.2
2.3
Actual Output
2.7
-0.7
3.6
2.3
Sources: Conference Board of Canada and HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2009 Reference Scenario.
6
Employment will return to its baseline trajectory by 2013 but
longer-term growth will be constrained by labour force
Total Employment
Actual
2008 Projection
2009 Projection
millions
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
Average Annual Growth:
2009-2018: +0.8%
1999-2008: +2.0%
Cumulative decline of 2.7% in
1991 and 1992; It took about
2 years before returning to
pre-recession level
Slower growth
in labour force
Decline of 3.1% in 1982; It
took about 2 years before
returning to pre-recession level
Strong job creation and
significant increases in
PR and ER
Expected decline of
2.0% in 2009
(actual decline of 1.6%
in first ten months).
Full recovery by 2011
10
9
1976
1982
1988
1994
2000
2006
2012
Sources: 1976-2008: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey.
2009-2018: HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2008 and 2009 Reference Scenarios.
2018
7
The unemployment rate is expected to recover at a faster
pace than in the previous two recessions due to slower
labour force growth
Unemployment Rate
Actual
2008 Projection
2009 Projection
percent
15
Smaller increase and
faster recovery than previous
recessions due to slower
growth in labour force
12
9
6
It took from 8 to 10 years before
returning to pre-recession level
3
0
1976
1982
1988
1994
2000
2006
Sources: 1976-2008: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey.
2009-2018: HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2009 Reference Scenario.
2012
2018
8
‘The Jobs of the Future’ by Industry – Key Messages
Years prior to recession:
 Strong employment gains in primary and domestic-oriented* sectors, driven by
resource-boom and gains in terms of trade and national income
 Declining trend in manufacturing employment brought by adjustments to higher
dollar, higher energy costs and increased competition from low-cost countries
Current versus previous two recessions:
 Hardest hit industries the ‘usual suspects’: manufacturing (particularly auto and
wood), construction, forestry, and mining and fuels
 Services industries much less cyclically-sensitive
Changes from Reference 2008:
 Slower employment growth in primary, manufacturing and domestic-oriented
sectors in the short term
 Employment in most industries returning to Ref 2008 by mid next decade, except in
manufacturing where projections were revised to a permanent lower trajectory
 For the whole 10-year period, much weaker employment growth in manufacturing
and relatively no change in remaining two sectors
Next decade versus previous decade:
 Slower employment growth in the domestic-oriented sector
 Modest improvement in the primary and manufacturing sectors
* Note: The domestic-oriented sector is composed of construction, utilities, commercial and public services industries.
9
As in previous decades, job creation will be driven by the less
cyclically-sensitive domestic-oriented sector
Employment by Aggregated Sector
Primary
Manufacturing
Domestic-oriented
index 1989 = 100
160
140
Manufacturing and primary
sectors are highly cyclical
and more sensitive to global
economic conditions
Solid growth in
domestic demand
leading to job creation
in construction,
commercial services
and health/education
Adjustment to higher dollar
and commodity prices and
increased competition from
low-cost countries
120
100
80
Most of the decline
in agriculture and fishing
Most of the rebound
in mining and fuels
60
1976
1982
1988
1994
2000
2006
2012
2018
Sources: 1976-2008: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey (based on NAICS, data prior to 1987 based on SIC).
10
2009-2018: HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2009 Reference Scenario.
Despite slower growth in the next decade, mining and fuels
will continue to support job creation in the primary sector
Employment in Primary Industries
Actual
2008 Projection
2009 Projection
thousands
600
Agriculture and Fishing
500
Lower world prices, severe
droughts, fishing quotas
400
300
Mining and Fuels
Booming global demand for
energy and base metals
200
100
Shift from conventional
oil production to
oil sands extraction
Forestry
US housing crisis and lower
residential investment in Canada
0
1976
1982
1988
1994
2000
2006
2012
2018
Sources: 1976-2008: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey (based on NAICS, data prior to 1987 based on SIC).
11
2009-2018: HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2009 Reference Scenario.
Slight turnaround in manufacturing industries, resulting in
virtually no employment growth over the coming decade
Manufacturing Employment by Export Intensity
millions
Actual
2008 Projection
2009 Projection
1.3
Low Export-Oriented
NAFTA and
the depreciation
of the dollar
Higher dollar and commodity
prices and increased competition
from low-cost countries
Gains in food, rubber,
and chemical industries
1.1
0.9
Downsizing in
automotive and
wood products
industries
High Export-Oriented
0.7
1976
1982
1988
1994
2000
2006
Gains in computer,
electronic and other
transportation
equipment industries
2012
2018
Sources: 1976-2008: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey (based on NAICS, data prior to 1987 based on SIC).
2009-2018: HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2009 Reference Scenario.
Note: see Annex for the definition of low and high export-oriented industries.
12
Job creation is expected to slow in construction, reflecting
lower housing requirements due to demographic factors
Employment in Construction (and Utilities)
millions
Actual
2008 Projection
2009 Projection
1.5
1.3
Employment in
construction is
highly cyclical
Residential and non
residential investment
driven by lower interest
rates, solid growth in
household income,
wealth and corporate
profits
Plunge in residential
investment after the
unprecedented boom
of previous years
1.1
0.9
Lower housing
requirement due to
slower population
growth and
population ageing
Growth will be mainly
driven by non
residential investment
0.7
0.5
1976
1982
1988
1994
2000
2006
2012
2018
Sources: 1976-2008: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey (based on NAICS, data prior to 1987 based on SIC).
13
2009-2018: HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2009 Reference Scenario.
Commercial services will remain the largest contributors to
overall job creation in the longer term
Employment in Commercial Services
Reflecting slower GDP growth
in services, party attributable
to demographic factors
millions
5
Household consumption
largely driven by solid
growth in disposable
income and wealth gains
4
Consumer-Oriented
3
Business investment
largely driven by
healthy growth in
corporate profits
2
Consumer-oriented
services more cyclically
sensitive as they tend to
be more affected by
changes in household
income and job insecurity
(retail trade and tourism)
Actual
2008 Projection
2009 Projection
Business-Oriented
1
1976
1982
1988
1994
2000
2006
2012
2018
Sources: 1976-2008: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey (based on NAICS, data prior to 1987 based on SIC).
2009-2018: HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2009 Reference Scenario.
Note: see Annex for the definition of consumer- and business-oriented services industries.
14
In public services, job creation will continue to be largely
driven by the health care and social assistance industry
Employment in Public Services
Actual
2008 Projection
2009 Projection
millions
2.50
Increased government
spending in health care
and educational services
(population ageing and
knowledge-based economy)
2.25
2.00
1.75
Employment in
public services is
much less sensitive
to the business cycle
Health
1.50
1.25
Education
1.00
0.75
Public Administration
0.50
0.25
1976
1982
1988
1994
2000
Closely linked to the fiscal
positions and programs of
governments
2006
2012
2018
Sources: 1976-2008: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey (based on NAICS, data prior to 1987 based on SIC).
2009-2018: HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2009 Reference Scenario.
15
10-Year Employment Growth Outlook for 33 COPS Industries
(AAGR 2009-2018, per cent)
Computer System Design Services
Professional Business Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Oil and Gas Extraction
Other Professional Services (scientific, technical)
Other Transportation Equipment
Mining (except oil and gas extraction)
Accommodation and Food Services
Information, Culture and Recreation Services
Management, Administrative and Support
Computer, Electronic and Electrical Products
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Other Commercial Services (household serv.)
Educational Services
Utilities
Support Activities for Mining Oil and Gas
Public Administration
Rubber, Plastics and Chemicals
Food and Beverage Products
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing
Construction
Agriculture
Fishing, Hunting and Trapping
Transportation and Warehousing
Manufactured Mineral Products
Metal Fabrication and Machinery
Printing and Related Activities
Forestry and Logging
Other Manufacturing (textile, clothing furniture)
Wood Products
Paper Manufacturing
Motor Vehicles, Trailers and Parts
High-tech industries,
mining and fuels,
health care and
professional services
Mainly domestic-oriented
industries (most commercial
services + public services)
and some high-tech
manufacturing industries
Most manufacturing and
primary industries
(excluding mining and fuels)
+ FIRE and construction
Average = 0.8%
-3
-2
-1
0
Source: HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2009 Reference Scenario.
1
2
3
16
Historically, employment growth in high-skilled jobs has been
stronger, especially during economic downturns
High- and Low-Skilled Employment, Monthly, 1987-2009M9
Thousands
10,000
1990's
Recession
High-skilled
9,000
High-skilled:
67,500 (-0.9% ) jobs lost
in 29 months
8,000
Low-skilled
High-skilled:
193,300 (-1.8% ) jobs lost
in 11 months
7,000
Low-skilled:
395,600 (-7.2% ) jobs lost
in 29 months
6,000
Low-skilled:
163,400 (-2.5% ) jobs lost
in 11 months
5,000
4,000
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
High-skilled group is composed of Management, Skill Levels A and B
Low-skilled group is composed of Skill Levels C and D
Sources: Statistics Canada and HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2009 Reference Scenario.
17
In the current recession, high-skilled occupations have
been more impacted than in previous downturns
Index of Employment by Skill Level during the 1990s and Current Recessions
1.02
Low-Skilled Jobs
1.00
High-Skilled Jobs
1.02
1.00
163,400 (-2.5%) jobs lost
in 11 months (Sept 2009)
0.98
0.96
395,600 (-7.2%) jobs lost in
29 months (Sept. 1992)
0.94
0.98
0.96
193,300 (-1.8%) jobs lost in
11 months (Sept. 2009)
67,500 (-0.9%) jobs lost in
29 months (Sept. 1992)
0.94
Base: October, 2008
Base: April, 1990
0.92
Months
0.90
-4 -2base 2
4
6
8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28
Base: October, 2008
0.92
Base: April, 1990
Months
0.90
-4 -2base2
4
6
8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28
High-skilled group is composed of Management and Skill Levels A and B
Low-skilled group is composed of Skill Levels C and D
Sources: Statistics Canada and HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2009 Reference Scenario.
18
The impact of the recession on low-skilled jobs will be felt
longer
High- and Low-Skilled Employment, 2005-2018
Thousands
High-Skilled
Low-Skilled
Thousands
11,000
8,000
10,500
7,500
10,000
7,000
5 yrs
6,500
9,500
9,000
3 yrs
8,500
6,000
Actual
2008 Projection
2009 Projection
Actual
2008 Projection
2009 Projection
5,500
3 yrs
5,000
8,000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
High-skilled group is composed of Management, Skill Levels A and B
Low-skilled group is composed of Skill Levels C and D
Sources: Statistics Canada and HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2009 Reference Scenario.
19
Over the next ten years, 3 in 4 new jobs are expected to
be in management or in occupations usually requiring
postsecondary education
High- and Low-Skilled Employment (Non-student), 2005-2018
Thousands
Annual Change, Thousands
1,000
18,000
800 Annual change,
17,000
left-hand side scale
600
Employment
right-hand side scale
400
16,000
15,000
200
14,000
0
13,000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
-200
-400
-600
12,000
Annual Change, Low-Skilled
Annual Change, High-Skilled
Employment (Right-Hand Scale)
11,000
10,000
High-skilled group is composed of Management, Skill Levels A and B
Low-skilled group is composed of Skill Levels C and D
Sources: Statistics Canada and HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2009 Reference Scenario.
20
High-skilled occupations represented 61.9% of total
employment in 2008
Employment Composition by Skill Level (Non-student), 2008
2008
9.8%
9.7%
18.0%
28.4%
34.2%
High-Skilled Jobs 61.9%
Low-Skilled Jobs 38.1%
Management
college or apprenticeship
on-the-job training
university education
secondary school
Sources: Statistics Canada and HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2009 Reference Scenario.
21
The proportion of high-skilled occupations is expected to
change minimally over the next 10 years
Employment Composition by Skill Level (Non-student), 2018
73.6% of expansion demand will be in
high-skilled occupations (2009-2018)
2018
9.5%
9.8%
19.1%
27.7%
33.9%
High-Skilled Jobs 62.8%
Low-Skilled Jobs 37.2%
Management
college or apprenticeship
on-the-job training
university education
secondary school
Sources: Statistics Canada and HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2009 Reference Scenario.
22
NOC Matrix, Coloured by Projected Growth Rate, 2009-18
1
2
3
BUS, FIN
& ADMIN
NATUR &
APPLIED
SCIENCE
SOCIAL, EDU,
HEALTH GOV’T SERV
& RELIGION
MANAG.
LEVEL A
university
LEVEL B
college or
apprentic
LEVEL C
second
occspecific
training
LEVEL D
On-thejob
training
4
5
ART,
CULTU,
RECR &
SPORT
6
7
SALES &
SERV
TRADES,
TRANSP
AND EQUI
8
PRIMARY
INDU
9
PROCESS
MANU
& UTIL
Management N010
11 - Prof in
Business
& Finance
21 - Prof in
Natural /
Applied
Sciences
31 - Prof
in Health
41 - Prof in
Social Sci /
Edu / Gov't
Serv/Religion
51 - Prof
in Art &
Culture
12 - Skilled
Admin &
Business
22 - Techl
Occ's
Related to
Natural /
Applied
Sciences
32 - Tech
/ Skilled
Occs in
Health
42 - Paraprof
Occ's in Law
/ Social
Services /
Education /
Religion
52 - Tech
/ Skilled
Occ's in
Art /
Culture /
Recr/Spo
14 Clerical
Occs
34 Assisting
Occ's in
Support
of Health
Services
green: Above average = AAGR > 1.25%
yellow: Average = 1.25% > AAGR > 0.3%
red: below average = AAGR < 0.3%
62 - Skilled
Sales &
Service
Occs
72-73 Trades &
Skilled
Transp &
Equip
Operators
82 Skilled
Occ's in
Primary
Industry
92 - Process
/ Manu /
Utilities
Supervisors
& Skilled
Operators
64 Intermedia
te Sales &
Service
Occ’s
74– Interm.
Occ's in
Transp /
Equip
Operation /
Install /
Maint.
84 Intermed
Occ's in
Primary
Industry
94-95 Process &
Manu
Machine
Operators &
Assemble
66 Elemental
Sales &
Service
Occ’s
76 - Trade
Helpers,
Construc.
Labourers
& Related
86 Primary
Industry
Labour
96 Labourer in
Process,
Manu &
Utilities
23
Replacement demand is primarily composed of retirements
Sources of Replacement Demand
500,000
Deaths
Emigration
Retirements
Projection
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Sources: Statistics Canada and HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2009 Reference Scenario.
24
The effect of the recent financial market shock on
retirements will be transitory
Retirements and the Impact of the 2008 Financial Shock
Thousands
400
350
Actual
2008 Projection
2009 Projection
Projection
300
250
200
150
100
1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
Sources: Statistics Canada and HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2009 Reference Scenario.
25
The increased importance of retirements will persist in the
long run
Retirements and the Share of the Population Aged 50 and Over
Thousands
500
Retirements
400
Share of Population 50+
Medium-term
scenario
Long-term
scenario
Per cent
55
50
300
45
200
40
100
35
0
30
1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 2023 2027 2031 2035 2039 2043 2047 2051
Sources: Statistics Canada and HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2009 Reference Scenario.
26
Retirement rates are less dispersed across skill groups than
expansion demand…
Retirement Rate, Mean Employment Age and Median Retirement
Age by Skill Level, 2009-2018
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
2.3%
2.0%
Management
University
1.9%
1.9%
1.6%
0.5%
0.0%
Community
High School
College
On-the-job
Training
Mean Emp. Age
45
42
39
41
35
Med. Ret. Age
62
61
61
61
63
Age Gap
17
19
22
20
28
Sources: Statistics Canada and HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2009 Reference Scenario.
27
…leading to job openings arising from retirements even in
low-skilled occupations
Retirements by Skill Level , 2009-2018
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
Management
Ret. Rate
Retirements
Skill Level A
Skill Level B
Skill Level C
Skill Level D
2.3%
2.0%
1.9%
1.9%
1.6%
371,200
623,500
1,073,600
887,200
259,500
Sources: Statistics Canada and HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2009 Reference Scenario.
28
Following the current recession, both expansion and
replacement demand are expected to continue rising
Job Openings from Expansion Demand and Replacement Demand
Net impact of -17,000 jobs
800,000
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
-100,000
-200,000
Expansion Demand
-300,000
Replacement Demand
Projection
-400,000
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Sources: Statistics Canada and HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2009 Reference Scenario.
2014
2016
2018
29
The increase of retirements will limit the labour force
available to "grow the economy"
Labour Force Inflows and Outflows, 1999-2008 and 2009-2018
thousands
6,000
5,000
Immigrants
4,000
3,000
2009-2018
1999-2008
Other
Labour force
available to
grow the
economy
Labour force
available to
grow the
economy
Immigrants
Deaths
Emigrants
School Leavers
School Leavers
Deaths
2,000
Retirements
Retirements
1,000
Other
0
In
Out
In
Out
-1,000
Labour Force Average Annual Growth:
1.7% (259,000 people a year)
Labour Force Average Annual Growth:
0.8% (141,000 people a year)
Sources: Statistics Canada and HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2009 Reference Scenario.
30
Two-thirds of all job openings will be in occupations usually
requiring PSE or in management occupations
Job Openings from Expansion Demand and Replacement Demand by Skill
Level, 2009-2018
Thousands
Expansion Demand
2,000
32.9%
1,800
Replacement (Retirements)
Replacement (Deaths and Emigration)
1,600
1,400
22.7%
1,200
1,000
800
11.2%
25.6%
600
7.7%
400
200
0
Management
University
College
Source: HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2009 Reference Scenario.
High School
On-the-job
Training
31
Almost all occupations with highest labour demand
will be in management or health sector
Non-student
Employment 2008
(000s)
Job Openings
2009-2018 (000s)
Job Openings as
% of 2008
Employment (AR*)
15,765.7
5,269.3
3.3%
Legislators & Senior Management (N001)
75.8
51.1
6.7%
Health / Education / Social & Community Services Mgr's (N031)
95.4
59.2
6.2%
Nurse Supervisors & Registered Nurses (N315)
268.9
161.7
6.0%
Physicians / Dentists / Veterinarians (N311)
111.8
62.7
5.6%
Human Resources & Business Service Professionals (N112)
161.0
89.3
5.5%
Managers in Public Administration (N041)
28.9
15.9
5.5%
Psychologists / Social Workers / Clergy (N415)
134.2
67.6
5.0%
Other Tech. Occupations in Health (Except Dental) (N323)
118.3
59.0
5.0%
University Professors & Assistants (N412)
92.8
45.7
4.9%
Assisting Occupations in Health Services (N341)
283.3
138.1
4.9%
Pharmacists, Dietitians & Nutritionists (N313)
29.8
13.4
4.5%
Therapy & Assessment Professionals (N314)
47.5
21.1
4.4%
Engineering / Science / Information Systems Mgr's (N021)
80.4
34.4
4.3%
College & Other Vocational Instructors (N413)
91.4
39.0
4.3%
Life Science Professionals (N212)
24.2
10.2
4.2%
15 Occupations with Higher Proportion
of Job Openings
All Occupations
*AR: The annual job openings rate corresponds to the ratio of the average level of job openings over the projection period to the employment
level in the base year (2008)
Sources: Labour Force Survey, Statistics Canada; HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2009 Reference Scenario.
32
Occupations with lowest labour demand will be
concentrated in manufacturing and construction
Non-student
Employment 2008
(000s)
Job Openings
2009-2018 (000s)
Job Openings as
% of 2008
Employment (AR*)
15,765.7
5,269.3
3.3%
Trades Helpers & Labourers (N761)
115.5
12.0
1.0
Machine Operators: Fabric / Fur / Leather (N945)
34.3
3.7
1.1
Other Transport Equipment Operators (N743)
17.9
2.0
1.1
Machine Operators: Pulp & Paper Prod (N943)
44.7
5.1
1.1
Agriculture & Horticulture Workers (N843)
72.6
9.0
1.2
Logging & Forestry Workers (N842)
11.0
1.8
1.6
Carpenters & Cabinetmakers (N727)
166.4
29.6
1.8
Masonry & Plastering Trades (N728)
72.6
13.6
1.9
Machining / Metalworking / Woodworking Operators (N951)
99.3
18.6
1.9
Machinists & Related Occupations (N723)
61.8
11.8
1.9
Metal Forming / Shaping / Erecting Occupations (N726)
146.0
28.7
2.0
Other Construction Trades (N729)
94.6
18.7
2.0
Mine Service Workers & Operators in Oil (N841)
17.5
3.5
2.0
Logging Machinery Operators (N824)
10.1
2.1
2.0
Office Equipment Operators (N142)
62.0
12.6
2.0
15 Occupations with Lowest Proportion
of Job Openings
All Occupations
*AR: The annual job openings rate corresponds to the ratio of the average level of job openings over the projection period to the employment
level in the base year (2008)
Sources: Labour Force Survey, Statistics Canada; HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2009 Reference Scenario.
33
Occupational Labour Demand – Key Messages

Replacement demand is expected to become the primary source of
new job openings.

The need to replace existing workers will eat up 3/4 of new labour
supply, constraining growth.

Recession impacts more low- than high-skilled jobs. However, this
time high-skilled occupations were more affected than in the past,
while low-skilled occupations were less impacted.

The recent recession will have short-term impacts, but over the
medium-term labour constraints to growth are expected to return.

Two-thirds of job openings are expected to occur in high-skilled
occupations, i.e. in occupations usually requiring PSE or in
management occupations.

The occupations with the highest proportion of job openings are
found in management and in the health sector.
34
ANNEX – Definition of Industry Groupings
Manufacturing:
 Low-exported oriented: Food and beverage products; Printing and related
activities; Rubber, plastic and chemicals; Manufactured mineral products; Other
manufacturing (textile, clothing, furniture)
 High-exported oriented: Wood products; Paper; Metal fabrication and machinery;
Computer, electronic and electrical products; Motor vehicles, trailers and parts;
Other transportation equipment (aerospace, railroad, boats)
Commercial services:
 Consumer-oriented: Retail trade; Wholesale trade; Transportation and
warehousing; Accommodation and food services
 Business-oriented: Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing; Professional
business services; Computer system design; Other professional services
(scientific and technical); Management, administrative and other support
services; Information, culture and recreation; Other commercial services (repair,
maintenance, personal and household services)
35