www.mass.gov/southcoastrail
A Smart Growth future on
the South Coast will:
New Study Finds
South Coast Rail Helps
the Environment
New jobs, homes and development are projected
for the South Coast region by 2030. This growth,
while welcome for many reasons, can also bring
some unwanted changes. It can threaten the
historic farms and villages, fields, forests and
cities on the South Coast. The South Coast Rail
project seeks to welcome and shape the coming
growth in ways that protect communities and the
environment.
This approach is called smart growth. It combines
transportation, economic development and
environmental goals with old-fashioned frugality
and common sense. The basic idea is to cluster
jobs, homes, and shops in places where people are
already living and working, while saving the natural
areas that are beautiful and valuable.
This past summer, the South Coast Rail project
released the smart growth Corridor Plan, a blueprint
generated by South Coast residents for economic
and residential development, job creation and
environmental preservation. To make this plan real,
the project is investing about $300,000 annually
to provide technical assistance to communities in
partnership with the regional planning agencies to
prepare for new transit service. New zoning and
other planning will help communities preserve
important natural resources while supporting
economic development in appropriate areas. The
success of this plan also depends on state policies
and funding that support these goals.
• Save 10,000 football fields worth of land
that would have been developed
• Take the equivalent of a car driving around
the world 20 times every day off the roads
• Preserve farmland equal to 20 Dike Creek
Farms in Dartmouth
• Stop the clearing of forest land the size of
the Freetown-Fall River State Forest
• Limit impacts to biodiversity in an area the
size of Lakeville, Freetown, Dighton, and
Berkley combined
• Reduce the amount of water consumed by
each household by 21 gallons per day
How many vehicle miles
will smart growth save
on the South Coast?
The same number as
a car whizzing around
the earth 20 times a
day – every day!
South Coast Rail - January 2010 | Page 1
Looking Ahead
How can we be sure this approach will work? One way
is to look ahead and estimate the effects of different
scenarios: What will happen if there is no new transit service
to the South Coast? or What will happen if there is new
transit service and smart growth? As part of the project’s
environmental analysis, MassDOT researched these
questions and provided answers in a technical report.
(The full analysis, Draft South Coast Rail Secondary and
Cumulative Impacts Technical Report, is posted on www.
mass.gov/southcoastrail.)
MassDOT completed what is probably the most
comprehensive study of its kind in New England to
understand the effects of new transit on secondary
impacts. Secondary impacts are effects of the project
from spurring new economic growth. These impacts
occur later in time but can reasonably be predicted now.
The study looked at the possible impacts South Coast
Rail would have on land consumption, forest-, farm-, and
wetland conversion, biodiversity and air quality.
The results are clear: combining new transit with smart
growth offers a greener future than one with no new
transit or transit with no smart growth. Combining
smart growth and transit reduces land consumption
and the distance that families have to drive every day.
The study predicts that environmental impacts that the
South Coast will experience from expected growth will
be reduced between 21% and 30% if the region pursues
a smart growth future. More than 10,000 acres will be
left undeveloped by implementing the smart growth
measures called for by the Corridor Plan as compared to
what would happen otherwise.
Understanding the Study Terms
Induced Growth: growth in households and jobs
directly attributable to the project and that would
not occur without the project.
Secondary Impacts: impacts caused by the proposed
project that occur later in time and removed in
distance, but are still reasonably foreseeable.
How It Worked
The study looked at three transit alternatives: Attleboro
Electric, Stoughton Electric and Rapid Bus. For each
alternative, there are three possible futures:
• No Build: these are the projections for the year 2030
(made by the regional planning agencies) without
South Coast Rail or implementation of the Corridor
Plan smart growth recommendations.
• Scenario 1: South Coast Rail is built and causes
induced growth on top of the “no build” growth
projections. Smart growth is not implemented.
• Scenario 2: South Coast Rail is built and the smart
growth strategies from the Corridor Plan are
implemented. This scenario includes all the growth
projected in Scenario 1, but it places growth in areas
designated by communities in the Corridor Map.
The study area includes 31 cities and towns in the South
Coast Corridor Region, plus four towns in Rhode Island
within easy commuting distance of the proposed stations
in Fall River.
South Coast Rail - January 2010 | Page 2
The first step was to develop forecasts for the number of
households and jobs for all of the scenarios. The two rail
alternatives were chosen because they are projected to
have the greatest amount of induced growth. (The other
rail alternatives still under consideration will experience induced growth somewhere between the electric rail alternatives and the bus, which has the lowest amount of induced
growth expected.) MassDOT then evaluated the secondary
impacts of the scenarios using measures from planning
literature and recent reports, such as Mass Audubon’s
Losing Ground, which includes data on recent land use
development patterns. The smart growth results include a
high and low range since these measures could be implemented in a moderate fashion or more aggressively.
The results of the study are available in detail in the full
report. Here is a summary of the forecasts for each scenario:
No Build: Over 74,000 new households and 81,000 new
jobs are projected for the South Coast region by 2030.
This scenario has no proposed rapid bus or train and no
additional smart growth implementation.
Scenario 1 - Transit without smart growth: This scenario
includes the induced growth accompanying the train but
does not incorporate any coordinated efforts of Corridor
Plan implementation. Induced growth in households and
jobs was calculated for the three routes using regional
economic models developed for the Corridor Plan.
Between 1,300 and 2,050 new households are projected
in the region depending on the final choice of route,
which represents a 1.8% to 2.8% increase over the No
Build projections. Similarly, 1,700 to 2,600 new, induced
jobs are projected for the region. Induced growth is
expected to be greatest in communities with new stations
and service.
Households projected in 2030 by alternative
Alternative
Baseline Induced
Total
% Change
Attleboro
74,371
2,057
76,428
2.8%
Stoughton
74,371
1,972
76,343
2.7%
Rapid Bus
74,371
1,310
75,681
1.8%
Scenario 2 - Transit with smart growth: This smart
growth scenario incorporates the baseline and induced
growth, but it allocates about 30% of this growth to the
Corridor Map’s Priority Development Areas, including
new transit-oriented development and the creation of new
and revitalized neighborhoods and downtown centers.
Using an innovative model, MassDOT shifted growth
from Priority Protection Areas (50% of growth shifted)
and Neutral Areas (25% of growth shifted) into Priority
Development Areas.
While many potential smart growth scenarios could
unfold in the South Coast between now and 2030, this
analysis explores one smart growth scenario based on
the Corridor Plan. Using GIS mapping technology, an
innovative model was built to automate the reallocation
of growth. The model was calibrated through an iterative
process with the regional planning agencies to match the
model’s assumptions with the reality on the ground. The
model assumes that current zoning can be changed to
accommodate more mixed-use, clustered development in
town and village centers; infrastructure constraints can be
overcome within reason and more of the housing units
will be multifamily and smaller-lot, single family homes.
The results of the secondary growth study
Resource
No Build
(2030)
Smart Growth
Scenario - Reduction
of Impacts from No
Build (2030)
Land Converted
to Development
44,995 acres
9,500 to 14,000 fewer
acres developed
Farmland Lost
11,447 acres
2,600 - 3,600 fewer
acres lost
Forest Land
Cleared
23,736 acres
5,000 - 7,300 fewer
acres cleared
Biodiversity
(habitat quality
loss)
134,984 acres 54,000 - 73,000 fewer
acres impacted
Water Demand
12.53 million
gallons/day
1.45 - 1.65 million
fewer gallons per
day used
Vehicle Miles
Traveled (daily)
3,316,805
170,000 - 490,000
fewer vehicle miles
traveled
What’s Next
No one can predict exactly how or where development
will unfold over the next 20 years on the South Coast.
This study demonstrates that incorporating smart
growth can help develop more livable and vibrant
neighborhoods, towns, and cities across the region,
while protecting the South Coast’s natural resources.
Where the 75,000 new households chose to live and
where the new jobs locate over the next 20 years will
greatly determine the South Coast’s future. Smart growth
development can prevent new subdivisions and shopping
centers from gobbling up farms and forests and help
take vehicles off our ever-more congested highways. We
can choose a different path – one that revitalizes our
downtowns and village centers, provides greater choice in
South Coast Rail - January 2010 | Page 3
Priority Development and Protection Areas
transportation, jobs and housing, and preserves
the South Coast’s quality of life.
Massachusetts is coordinating its investments
in accordance with the priority areas of the
Corridor Map. Cities and Towns throughout
the region are developing plans and zoning
proposals to turn the map into an on-theground reality. Through the South Coast Rail
technical assistance program, the regional
planning agencies are supporting these efforts
through a variety of projects. Station area
concept plans are turning into ideas for concrete
zoning changes that will allow mixed-use, infill
development around the new stations.
The only way this smart growth future for the
South Coast can become a reality is if cities and
towns and the state create a strong partnership:
cities and towns zone to support the Corridor
Map and the state invests in infrastructure to
support Priority Development Areas and in
land preservation in Priority Protection Areas.
Because zoning and planning is local, this future
also depends on residents getting involved
in station area design, planning committees,
and town meetings. To learn how you can have
your voice heard, keep an eye on the project’s
calendar of events, posted on the project
website, www.mass.gov/southcoastrail. n
The Corridor Map identifies the Priority
Development and Protection Areas that were used
for the smart growth calculations in this study.
All Aboard!
Contact Information
The South Coast Rail exhibit, I wish
I were riding the train, is on display
in the Children’s Hall of the Fall
River Library until February 27.
The display includes information
on plans for South Coast Rail; a
vision for a new rail station in Fall
River at Davol Street; and HO
scale model trains, including New
Haven and Amtrak locomotives
and coaches. During school vacation week, David Mello,
Children’s Supervisor, has organized a story time reading
block, on Tuesday, February 16 from 10:30 to 11:15. Children
will also be able to design their own South Coast Rail engines
and coaches.
If you would like more information about the
project or to be added to the project distribution
list for email and U.S. Mail notifications of
meetings and other updates, please contact
Kristina Egan, Director of South Coast Rail, by
email at Kristina.Egan@state.ma.us or phone at
617-973-7314. Project information and updates,
including a schedule of upcoming meetings, are
posted on the project website at www.mass.gov/
southcoastrail.
Massachusetts Department of Transportation
Ten Park Plaza, Room 4150
Boston, MA 02116
The library is at 104 North Main Street. For more information,
please visit the library’s website, http://www.sailsinc.org/
fallriver/ or call to confirm the event (508-324-2700).
South Coast Rail - January 2010 | Page 4