Solar Ultraviolet Irradiance Variations over Four Solar Cycles Tom Woods Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics University of Colorado email: tom.woods@lasp.colorado.edu SSI Data Sets (http://lasp.colorado.edu/LISIRD) SME: G. Rottman UARS SOLSTICE: G. Rottman & T. Woods UARS SUSIM: L. Floyd TIMED SEE: T. Woods & F. Eparvier SORCE SOLSTICE: M. Snow & W. McClintock SORCE SIM: J. Harder & J. Fontenla Composite SSI (SBUV): M. DeLand SSI Models NRLSSI: J. Lean SATIRE: W. Ball SRPM: J. Fontenla W&R: T. Woods & G. Rottman Example solar cycle (SC) variability UV Note that red lines are variations that are out of phase with the solar cycle. Solar Cycle (SC) variability from the NRLSSI model (J. Lean) UV varies the most when variability is given as a ratio (percentage) However… Variability given in energy units is more appropriate for climate studies new SSI variability results from SORCE In addition to the infrared, some visible wavelengths are out of phase with the solar cycle Also, there is more UV variability than expected Out of Phase Wavelengths Are the SIM and model differences possibly related to unresolved instrument trends? ◦ Checking these results is challenging ◦ Other validation techniques are needed than direct comparisons Figures from J. Harder et al., GRL, 2009 Understanding degradation is critical for understanding solar variations Measurement = SIM uncorrected data at 280 nm Technique: pick days of similar solar activity levels equal-distance from Min. SC 21 22 23 24 Proxy composite: ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ <TSI> <27 days> SSN (daily) <SSN> <Mg C/W> <Lyman- > F10.7 <F10.7> Range: 0-700 as each scaled to 100 for its SC variability range Reference Level is somewhat arbitrary ◦ Picked 2004/255 Assumption: average of variability before and after minimum = real solar variability Average Variability 1.5% (corrected) Var. = Max/Min - 1 1.4% 1.6% Assumption: average of variability before and after minimum = real solar variability Average Variability 1.5% (corrected) Var. = Max/Min - 1 Versus 1.4% 1.9% (raw data) Technique Uncertainty is ~20% 1.6% 8.0% -4.1% This technique can be tested with missions that have measured over cycle minimum SC 21 22 SME 23 UARS 24 ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ SORCE ASIDE: Proxy composite has lower minimum in 2008, so variability for SC 23-24 can be relatively larger for this technique (e.g. PMOD TSI is x 2 larger) Proxy composite: <TSI> <27 days> SSN (daily) <SSN> <Mg C/W> <Lyman- > F10.7 <F10.7> Range: 0-700 as each scaled to 100 for its SC variability range Reference Level is somewhat arbitrary ◦ Picked 2004/255 NRLSSI Comparison for “Same” Levels SME over solar cycle min 21-22 Ideal Comparison Best Wavelengths 140-210 nm UARS SUSIM – SC Min 22-23 Best Wavelengths 140-260 nm SORCE L3 – SC Min 23-24 SORCE L3 SOLSTICE: 115-308 nm SIM: 308-1600 nm Best Wavelengths 115-270 nm & 310-400 nm Combine the best of each to make Composite Solar Cycle Variability Note that full solar cycle variation is about a factor of 3 more Combine the best of each to make Composite Solar Cycle Variability Note that full solar cycle variation is about a factor of 3 more SSI / TSI from this composite SSI (1- uncertainty is about 30%) Wavelength (nm) 0-200 nm is 1.2% of TSI 0-300 nm is 28% 0-400 nm is 116% So the 300-400 nm range is most important for this comparison to TSI DeLand SBUV-UARS SSI Comparison to this new Composite Measurement Best Wavelengths for SBUV 140-200 nm Solar Models compared to Composite 0-220 nm Solar Models compared to Composite 180-400 nm Conclusions Observations over a solar cycle minimum permit independent check on degradation trend (at ~30% of the variability) Solar ultraviolet variability observations and models agree best at wavelengths shorter than 210 nm This SORCE re-analysis suggest lower variability than Harder et al. (2009) but still higher than some models for above 260 nm ◦ More consistent with SUSIM, SATIRE, SRPM ◦ 0-1600 nm SSI = 84% TSI (expect ~88%) Future SSI Measurements Can new instruments have little or no degradation for the UV-Vis-NIR ? NOAA/NASA TSIS SIM ◦ 3 channels: daily, monthly, annual ◦ Improved lower-noise version of SORCE SIM Féry prism spectrometer covering the full wavelength range from the UV to IR using only one optical element for spectral dispersion and image quality Backup Slides SORCE L3 SC minimum technique result TSI 0.032% All Models compared to Composite SSI / TSI 400-1600 nm 0-1600 nm 96% 130% 104% N/A 84% TSI 0.032% Note that SIM 0-1600 nm SSI / TSI = 88% (expected for values above) List of days of “same” level Solar Cycle Minimum 1986/195 1996/140 2008/280 PMOD TSI suggests “same” levels are reasonably selected. 3- variation for detrended 27-day smoothed TSI = 313 ppm SRPM Comparison for “same” levels Woods & Rottman Model Comparison for “same” levels UARS SOLSTICE – SC Min 22-23 Best Wavelengths 120-170 nm TIMED SEE – SC Min 23-24 Best Wavelengths 0-140 nm Example DeLand SSI time series (red diamonds are reference days) Overview of TSIS SIM Rotational Prism Carrier CCD Assy Shutter/Photodiode Assy Fery Prism Assy CCD Aperture External Flex Ch. A Aperture ESR Detector Assy Ch. B Aperture Ch. C Aperture Fine Sun Sensor Vacuum Door Mechanism Focal Plane Module