Multi-scale harmonic model for solar and climate cyclical variation throughout the Holocene based on Jupiter–Saturn tidal frequencies plus
the 11-year solar dynamo cycle
Understanding why solar activity changes is fundamental for forecasting solar activity and climate changes as well. It has been shown that the global
surface temperature signal since 1850 contains a harmonic component not reproduced by the current general circulation models, which appears to be
made of a set of frequencies that can be associated to astronomical cycles. This suggests that the entire solar system tends to synchronize to its
natural oscillations that are regulated by the movement of the planets. We show that the Schwabe frequency band of the Zurich sunspot record since
1749 can be decomposed using three major cycles. These cycle appear to be closely related to the spring tidal period of Jupiter and Saturn (~9.93
year), to the tidal sidereal period of Jupiter (about 11.86 years) plus a central cycle that may be associated to a quasi-11-year solar dynamo cycle. The
latter cycle appears to be approximately synchronized to the average of the two planetary frequencies. A simplified harmonic constituent model based
on the above two planetary tidal frequencies and on the exact dates of Jupiter and Saturn planetary tidal phases, plus a theoretically deduced 10.87year central cycle reveals complex quasi-periodic interference/beat patterns. The major beat periods occur at about 115, 61 and 130 years, plus a
quasi-millennial large beat cycle around 983 years. We show that equivalent synchronized cycles are found in cosmogenic solar proxy records used to
reconstruct solar activity and in proxy climate records throughout the Holocene (last 12,000 years) up to now. The quasi-secular beat oscillations
hindcast reasonably well the known prolonged periods of low solar activity during the last millennium such as the Oort, Wolf, Sporer, Maunder and
Dalton minima, as well as the 17 115-year long oscillations found in a detailed temperature reconstruction of the Northern Hemisphere covering the
last 2000 years. The millennial three-frequency beat cycle hindcasts equivalent solar and climate cycles for 12,000 years. Finally, the harmonic model
herein proposed reconstructs the prolonged solar minima that occurred during 1900– 1920 and 1960–1980 and the secular solar maxima around
1870–1890, 1940–1950 and 1995–2005 and a secular upward trending during the 20th century. The latter modulated trending agrees well with some
solar proxy model, with the ACRIM TSI satellite composite and with the global surface temperature modulation since 1850. The model forecasts a
new prolonged solar minimum during 2020–2045, which would be produced by the minima of both the 61 and 115-year reconstructed cycles. Finally,
the model predicts that during low solar activity periods, the solar cycle length tends to be longer, as some researchers have claimed. These results
clearly indicate that both solar and climate oscillations are linked to planetary motion and, furthermore, their timing can be reasonably hindcast and
forecast for decades, centuries and millennia. The demonstrated geometrical synchronicity between solar and climate data patterns with the proposed
solar/planetary harmonic model rebuts a major critique (by Smythe and Eddy, 1977) of the theory of planetary tidal influence on the Sun. Moreover,
we discuss preliminary physical mechanisms that can explain the phenomenon. Using the Mass-Luminosity relation, we propose that the Sun works
as a great magnifier of the small tidal signal and show that the theory is consistent with the observations. The 4-million amplification factor is due to
tidal modulation of the nuclear fusion rate.
References:
Scafetta N., 2012. Does the Sun work as a nuclear fusion amplifier of planetary tidal forcing? A proposal for a physical mechanism based on the
mass-luminosity relation. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 81-82, 27-40. Scafetta N., 2012. Multi-scale harmonic model for solar and climate cyclical variation throughout the Holocene based on Jupiter-Saturn tidal
frequencies plus the 11-year solar dynamo cycle. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 80, 296-311. Scafetta N., 2012. Testing an astronomically based decadal-scale empirical harmonic climate model versus the IPCC (2007) general circulation
climate models. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 80, 124-137.
Scafetta N., 2012. A shared frequency set between the historical mid-latitude aurora records and the global surface temperature. Journal of
Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 74, 145-163.
Scafetta N., 2010. Empirical evidence for a celestial origin of the climate oscillations and its implications. Journal of Atmospheric and SolarTerrestrial Physics 72, 951-970.
Multi-scale harmonic model for
solar and climate cyclical
variation throughout the Holocene
based on Jupiter–Saturn tidal
frequencies plus the 11-year solar
dynamo cycle
We are living in a
solar system
●
●
●
Solar System Oscillates because
of planetary motion
The Sun may be very sensitive
to these oscillations and
synchronize to them
The Earth's climate system
may oscillate with the same
oscillations by synchronizing
to them
Nicola Scafetta
ACRIM
Duke University
SORCE Science Meeting
Annapolis, MD, Sept. 18-19
YES!
Planetary tides during the Maunder Sunspot
Minimum, CHARLES M. SMYTHE & JOHN A. EDDY
Nature 266, 434 - 435 (31 March 1977);
NO!
We reconstruct here Sun-centred planetary
conjunctions and tidal potentials for the AD 1645–
1715 period of sunspot absence (the Maunder
Minimum). These are found to be effectively
indistinguishable from patterns of conjunctions and
power spectra of tidal potential in the modern era of a
well-established 11-yr sunspot cycle. This places a
new and difficult constraint on any tidal theory of
sunspot formation.
MM
Three frequencies
Spring tidal period
Of Saturn & Jupiter?
1749-2012
Solar dynamo
Cycle?
Orbital period of
Jupiter?
Power Spectrum
Jupiter/Saturn
spring tide
Solar Dynamo cycle
Jupiter tide
Beat Cycles
PJu-Sa & PSc
PJu & PJu-Sa
PSc & PJu
PJu-Sa & PSc & PJu
Power spectrum evaluations of solar records
Find ~60, ~115, ~130 and ~1000 year cycles
among others
Harmonic Model
Calibration
period
calibration
Same
model
with very
small
corrections
Multi-scale harmonic model for solar and climate cyclical
variation throughout the Holocene (~115 yr and ~983 yr)
Multi-scale harmonic model envelope for solar activity
(~61 yr, ~115 yr, ~130 yr and ~983 yr)
Basic
solar
model
W
M
D
Comparison with the temperature records
Harmonic
planetary
Model (4 freq.)
+
Volcano
+
GHG
GCM-calibration
GCMs
projections
Harmonic
planetary
Model (6 freq.
+
Volcano
+
GHG
Planetary tides are small !
Solving the problem
Only if the Sun works as
an amplifier, planetary
tides may matter.
The Sun can work as an
amplifier of gravitational
disturbances because it is
a generator of energy
controlled by gravity.
LS=4x1026 W
Luminosity production
associated to tidal energy
dissipated in the Sun
Solar
Luminosity
Production
Profile
core
rewriting it
amplification factor
U̇ Sun =−U̇ fusion
R
C
~61 yr
11.08 yr lag-shift
Conclusion
●
Planetary harmonics do explain solar variations at multiple time scales
throughout the Holocene and similar oscillations are found in the climate.
SMYTHE & EDDY (Nature 1977) is misleading because the planetary
tides modulate the solar dynamo internal cycle.
The observed solar dynamics can be captured with a minimal model
based on three oscillations that interfere:
1) Jupiter/Saturn spring tide (9.93 yr),
2) Solar dynamo cycle (10.87 yr),
3) Jupiter orbital tide (11.86 yr).
●
Planetary tides by themselves are extremely small (~mm).
However, the Sun is an extremely powerful energy generator.
Energy generators work as amplifiers. Thus, the Sun likely amplifies
gravitational perturbations due to the planetary tides because its gravity
controls its fusion rate.
By using the Mass/Luminosity relation an amplification factor between tidal
dissipated energy and solar irradiance is found to be about 4-million.
Planetary tides are found to stimulate TSI oscillations, which are compatible
to the observations in magnitude and frequency.