Heliophysics Research within LWS/ILWS
ILWS: History
Madhulika
Guhathakurta
Lead Program
Scientist, Living
with a Star
NASAHeadquarters
Science Mission
Directorate
Heliophysics
Division
2011 SORCE
Science Meeting
Sedona, AZ
Sept. 13- 16, 2011
Overarching Principles
NASA Living with a Star Program
Targeted Research & Technology
Steering Committee
At the center of the solar system there is a
magnetic variable star, the Sun, that drives the
Earth and other Planets, and structures the
interplanetary space itself .
All of NASA’s activities, all human endeavor,
are subjected to forces in this neighborhood.
Heliophysics: (aka Science of
NASA Living with a Star Program
Space
Weather
&
Climate)
Targeted
Research & Technology
Steering Committee
Understanding the Sun and its effects on the Earth and
the solar system.
1. This is a complex system with many different temporal
and spatial scales
2. The study of heliophysics involves three forces, and
their interactions: pressure, gravity, and magnetic fields.
3. The Sun is coupled to the planetary system and space
by radiation, charged particles, and magnetic fields.
Heliophysics Future?
Interplanetary Space Weather & Climate Program
As human activity expands into the solar system, the need for accurate space
weather and climate forecasting is expanding, too. Space probes are now
orbiting or en route to flybys of Mercury, Venus, Earth and the Moon, Mars,
Vesta, Ceres, Saturn, and Pluto. As agencies around the world prepare for
these missions to send robotic space craft, each of these missions (plus others
on the drawing board) has a unique need to know when a solar storm will pass
through its corner of space or how the subsequent solar cycles will
behave. Ultimately, astronauts will follow beyond Earth orbit, and their need
for interplanetary space weather and climate forecasting will be even more
compelling.
Until recently, forecasters could barely predict space weather in the limited
vicinity of Earth. Interplanetary forecasting was out of the question. This
began to change in 2006 with the launch of the twin STEREO probes followed
almost four years later by the Solar Dynamics Observatory. These three
spacecraft now surround the sun, monitoring active regions, flares, and coronal
mass ejections around the full circumference of the star. No matter which way
a solar storm travels, the STEREO-SDO fleet can track it. Missions like SDO
and Kepler are giving us a better view of sun-like stars and their inner workings
to understand their cyclic behavior.
SUN
galactic cosmic rays
EARTH
convection zone
radiative zone
core
particles and
magnetic fields
photons
bow
shock
surface
atmosphere
not to scale
sunspot
plage
coronal mass ejection
solar wind
heliosphere
surface
atmosphere
plasmasphere
magnetosphere
6
7
NASA Living with a Star Program
Targeted Research & Technology
Steering Committee
System of Systems
Surveillance
9
LWS Mantra
Develop the scientific understanding necessary to effectively
address those aspects of the connected Sun-Earth system that
directly affect life and society.
• Human Radiation Exposure
- Space Station
- Space Exploration and Utilization
- High Altitude Flight
• Impacts on Technology
- Space Systems
- Communications, Navigation
- Terrestrial Systems
• Terrestrial climate
- short term
- long term
M.
Science Application as the Focus
The primary goal of the
LWS Program is to develop
the understanding
necessary to enable the
U.S. to effectively address
those aspects of the
Connected Sun-Solar
system that directly affect
life and society.
•Space Weather
•Space Climate
•Sun-Climate Connection
Four Strategic GOALS for LWS
..deliver the understanding and modeling required for useful prediction
of the variable solar particulate and radiative environment at the
Earth, Moon, Mars, and throughout the solar system
..deliver the understanding of how and to what degree variations
in the solar radiative and particulate output contribute to changes
in global and regional climate over a wide range of time scales
..deliver the understanding and modeling required for effective
forecasting/specification of magnetospheric radiation and plasma
environments
..deliver understanding and predictive models of upper
atmospheric and ionospheric responses to changes in solar
electromagnetic radiation, and to coupling above and below
LWS Targeted Research & Technology
(TR&T) Strategic Plan
Based on the LWS TR&T Science Definition Team report of November 2003
LWS is a systematic, goal-oriented research program
targeting those aspects of the Sun-Earth system that
affect life and society.
The TR&T component of LWS is to provide the theory,
modeling, and data analysis necessary to enable an
integrated, system-wide approach to LWS science.
TR&T
Supports:
Focused Science Teams
Strategic Capabilities
Cross-cutting Workshops
Summer Schools/text books
Heliophysics Postdoctoral
Fellows (Eddy Fellows)
LWS TR&T Focus Topics
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Solar origins
of the plasma
and magnetic
flux of
observed
ICMEs
Shock
acceleration of
SEPs by
interplanetary
CMEs
Predict emergence
of solar active
regions before
visible
Magnetic Connection
of Photosphere and
Low Corona
Properties of the
Solar Dynamo that
affect Irradiance
and Active Regions
Behavior of the
Plasmasphere
and its Influence
on the Iono/Magnetosphere
Topology and
impact of the
magnetic field
through the
photosphere,
corona and
heliosp.
Mechanism for
solar wind
heating and
acceleration
Understand how
flares accelerate
particles near the
Sun and contribution
to large SEP events
Modulation of
Galactic Cosmic
Rays,… due to Longterm Solar Activity
Use Inner
Heliosphere Obs. to
Better Constrain
CME and SEP
Models
Origin and Nature Factors that
of the Slow Solar control highly
Wind, and its
variable SEPs
effect on Helio
Structures,
and SEP
Transport
Origin of solarenergetic
particles at the
sun and inner
heliosphere
Solar wind plasma Plasma redistribution
entry and transport during storms in the
in the
ITM system
magnetosphere
Daily Variability in the
Thermosphere and
Ionosphere
Integrate NonMHD/Kinetic Effects
into Global Models
Predict the Onset
and Space
Weather Impacts
of Fast
CMEs/Eruptive
Flares
Jets in the solar
atmosphere and
their effects on
the heliopsphere
Formation and
loss of new
radiation belts
in the slot region
…..
Storm effects on
globlal
electrodynamics of
the middle and low
latitude
ionosphere
Middle and low
latitude sources,
effects, and distribution
of large electron
density gradients
Combined Modelling of
Loss, Acceleration, and
Transport of
Magnetospheric
Electrons, Protons
Response of ITM
Composition and
Temperature due to
Solar XUV and
Energetic Particle
Variation
Plasma-Neutral
Gas Coupling
Incorporating
plasma waves in
models of RBs
and ring
currents
Thermospher
e composition
and due to
Solar and high
Lat forcing
Abundance of
greenhouse
gases and
dynamics of
Upper
Atmosphere
Solar origins of
irradiance
variations
Prediction of the
Interplanetary
Magnetic Field Vector
Bz at L1
Global,
regional
climate
sensitivity to
solar forcing
Extreme Space
Weather Events in the
Solar Sys/
The Sun-Climate
Strategic Theme
Low to midlatitude
ionospheric
irregularities &
turbulence
2011
TBD
Strategic Plan for Climate Change Goal
Physical Phenomena
(actual processes):
Dynamo
Deep
Solar
Interior
Quiet Sun
Active
Regions
Mesosphere
Irradiance
Particles
(e.g. temperature,
chemistry,
dynamics,
precipitation)
Troposphere
GCR
Earth Surface
Strategic
Solar
Models
Capabilities
(required models):
FST
(required
science):
Climate Change
Stratosphere
Solar
Processes
Total & Spectral
Irradiance
Observations &
Models
Whole Atmosphere
Models
Utility of
Proxy
Records
First
Principles
Irradiance
Model
Atmospheric
Coupling
Greenhouse
Gas Effects on
Upper Atm.
Climate
Sensitivity
to Solar
Forcing
Forcing
Mechanisms
Proposals and Awards
~150 current awards with average funding level of
~$120,000
26% of these have separately funded coInvestigators
Most have 3-4 year duration (SC - 5 year duration)
ROSES 2010
141 proposals reviewed for 4 FT, Sun-Climate Theme &
Cross-Discipline Infrastructure.
44 proposals selected in spring/summer 2011 of which 7
(out of 18) were for sun-climate theme.
ROSES 2011 NRA update will be made in mid October, 2011
Goal is to look for partnership opportunity with Earth
Science Division on Sun-Climate theme
Partnership established with NSF on Strategic Capabilities
TR&T website: http://lwstrt.gsfc.nasa.gov
LWS Sun-Climate Report
State of Knowledge of the
Sun-Climate Links
Immediate Goals:
Identify mechanistic pathways
Quantify processes involved
Determine their contribution to
climate change
Eddy et al. 2003
LWS: Unanswered Questions
1. Paradox of greater-than-expected climate sensitivity
2. Which solar forcing mechanism, radiative or nonradiative, are climatically significant and what are their
effects on other factors of variability?
3. Are there longer-term variations in solar irradiance in
addition to 0.1% eleven year cycle? What about spectral
solar irradiance?
4. What was the contribution of the solar variability to
climate during the last 25, 150 and 10,000 years?
Other questions: proxies, spectral irradiance, effect on modes of
variability, THC, sun-like stars (Kepler and others)
Rationale for the NRC Task
NASA’s Living with a Star (LWS) initiative is a goal-oriented research program
targeting those aspects of the Sun-Earth system that have specific societal impacts.
First among other stated LWS objectives is “to understand the impact of solar
variations on global [climatic] change.” While new results implying significant
links between solar activity and climate have continued to accumulate from
individual empirical, climate modeling and attribution studies, there has never
been an organized, community effort to address this area of investigation.
Nor has Sun-Climate research ever enjoyed the broad endorsement of either
the solar or the atmospheric research communities as a priority field of study.
More specific goals and definitions and an intellectual foundation that sets SunClimate research more clearly in the broad context of modern climate research are
obviously needed at this time, given the national policy implications of reliable
climate change attribution.
To support future planning, NASA & NSF enlisted the NRC’s assistance in
evaluating existing knowledge and possible avenues for future research in
this area. We planned a fact-finding workshop to be conducted by a study group of
the NRC; depending on information developed by this workshop, a future task might
request formal recommendations for follow-up research in this area.
Emphasis on Sun Climate Connection
NASA & NSF tasked NRC to conduct a study/workshop on
Beyond Radiative Forcing and Response:
Reconciling Observations and Understanding of Climate Response to
Solar Variability
What part of observed atmospheric variability is in response to solar forcing, particularly in
the lower atmosphere? Are attributed signals consistent over different time scales?
What are associations between sunspots or cosmogenic isotopes and the magnitude of
solar irradiance changes in the past?
If long-term irradiance variations are insufficient to impact climate, were other solarmodulated parameters, such as galactic cosmic rays, responsible for the reported paleo sunclimate connections?
Is empirical evidence sufficiently robust to conclude that the spatial response in climate
models is consistent, or not? What does the evidence imply about the relative roles of the
Sun and GHGs for past, present and future climate change and what does this mean for
their projections of regional climate response to other radiative forcings, such as GHGs?
What are the research directions and model extensions necessary to improve the models,
using solar forcings and observed climate responses to test their fidelity?
Are the long-standing concepts of radiative forcings and responses that are the basis for the
models inadequate to accommodate the actual mechanisms?
Heliophysics Text Books
The sub-disciplines within Heliophysics have a rich variety of available
textbooks, but no textbooks currently exist that present the diverse materials
from their common physical principles, and help teachers well-versed in one
discipline to teach the directly related areas within other disciplines.
Three affordable textbooks have been produced for each year of the Summer
School (2006-2009). The books are aimed for senior level undergraduates,
graduate students and beginning postdoctoral students in all of the sciences
related to climate physics, space physics, and heliospheric and solar physics,
plus relevant branches of astrophysics and plasma physics. The three
textbooks cover the basic topics in heliophysics.
NOTE: The Heliophysics textbooks have been published by Cambridge
University Press. All appendices are online. The textbooks do not have
'numerical modeling descriptions' nor 'problem sets'.
A new set of Heliophysics summer schools are developing 'numerical
modeling descriptions‘ and 'problem sets‘ to aid in teaching.
http://www.vsp.ucar.edu/HeliophysicsScience/
LWS Graduate Level
Education
A three volume
Series, an outgrowth of the
LWS summer school series.
Vol 1 Plasma Physics of the Local
Cosmos
Vol 2 Space Storms and Radiation
Vol 3 Evolving Solar Activity and the
Climates of Earth and Space
Summer School Resources:
http/www.vsp.ucar.edu/HeliophysicsS
ummer School
Heliophysics III:
“Evolving solar activity and climate of space and earth”
Cambridge Press: Hardback )
Expected- Summer 2010
1) Formation, evolution, and demise of stars and their planets
2) Planetary habitability on astronomical time scales
3) Long-term evolution of magnetic activity of Sun-like stars
4) Astrophysical dynamo actions and stellar dynamo models
5) Solar internal flows and dynamo action
6) Planetary fields and dynamos
7) The evolving heliosphere and its particle environment
8) Solar spectral irradiance: measurements and models
9) Long-term evolution of the geospace climate
10) Planetary ITM-magnetosphere processes and the solar
cycle
11) Waves and transport processes in planetary atmosheres
12) Climate couplings via (photo-)chemistry
13) Records of climate and climate drivers
14) External influences on planetary climates
15) Climate models of Earth and planets
16) Heliophysics - epilogue
On-Line Appendices:
1) Data archives, modeling sites, space weather forecasts
2) Descriptions on packages for numerical modeling
3) Problem sets
A Primer for Heliophyscs
The Heliophysics
Postdoctoral Fellowship
Program has been renamed
to Eddy Fellowship Program
Eddy Cross-Disciplinary
Symposium was held in
Sun-Climate research was
held in October, 2010 with a
major goal to introduce the
excitement and challenges of
a challenging crossdisciplinary area of research
to at least 20 undergraduate
and graduate students.
A Japanese translation of this
book will soon be available
(http://www.maruzen.co.jp/
corp/en/)
International
Living
With
a
Star
NASA Living with a Star Program
Targeted Research & Technology
•http:/ilwsonline.org/
Steering Committee
Toward the ILWS Future
 We are on the verge of an exciting decade of discovery and
international cooperation. However, much remains to be done.
- Articulate a powerful and sustainable vision for our science
- Strengthen the international framework of cooperation
- Establish a data and modeling infrastructure
- Work with other international organizations
- A well-organized ILWS will help address all of these needs.
Additional note: The upcoming solar maximum may turn out to be a
small one. Although past efforts have prioritized big storms and their
effects, this will be an opportunity for the heliophysics community to
place an emphasis on solar minimum effects (such as cosmic rays)
and long-term effects and sun-climate relationship.
Heliophysics Future?
NASAInterplanetary
Living with a Star Program
Space Weather & Climate Program
Targeted Research & Technology
Steering Committee
Interplanetary forecasting
(1) Human Safety
(2) Spacecraft operations
(3) Science Opportunities
Mission Line: Application with Science
Relevance and Monitoring with Science Utility
e.g., L1, L4/L5, SESS from NPOESS, COSMIC
Interplanetary SWx Institute
Virtual R2O interdisciplinary, e.g. Astrobiology Institute (an interdisciplinary
consortium of experts scattered across many universities and agencies under a
virtual NASA umbrella) e.g. If NASA sends a probe to Titan, say, other experts
would come to the fore---e.g., a planetary scientist at Brown University who
predicts tropospheric weather on Titan; a CME modeler at Goddard/CCMC who
predicts the onset of geomagnetic storms at Saturn; an EUV expert at the
University of Colorado who estimates the solar ultraviolet flux impinging on the
giant satellite. An approaching Titan probe could get a genuine weather
forecast for its target body. Whether the forecast is for Earth or Titan or some
other body, the effort would take place under the overarching supervision and
management of NASA. Moreover, NASA spacecraft would provide almost all
key data underlying the forecasts, a situation which is already a reality even
without this initiative.