Decadal Cycles in the Sun, Sun-like Stars, and Earth’s Climate System
SORCE Science Meeting
Sedona, Arizona * Sept. 13-16, 2011
Monday, Sept. 12
Welcoming Reception
5:30 – 6:30 p.m. Canyon Patio, Sedona Hilton Resort
Tuesday, Sept. 13
Welcome and Introduction
8:30 – 9:10 a.m.
Welcome/ SORCE Status
Tom Woods, LASP, University of Colorado, Boulder
GSFC/LASP Sun Climate Research Center (SCRC) Summary
Robert Cahalan, NASA GSFC, Climate and Radiation Laboratory, Greenbelt, Maryland
NASA Earth Science Division Status
Ramesh Kakar, NASA Headquarters, Washington, DC
Session 1.
Solar Irradiance Cycles
Chair: Gary Rottman, LASP, Univ. of Colorado
9:10 – 9:50 a.m.
Keynote: Yvonne Unruh, Imperial College, London, UK
Modeling Spectral Solar Irradiance
9:50 – 10:15 a.m.
Matt DeLand (Invited), Science Systems and Applications Inc. (SSAI), Maryland
Solar Cycle UV Irradiance Variations
10:15 – 10:30 a.m.
Jerry Harder, LASP, Univ. of Colorado-Boulder
The Impact of Solar Spectral Irradiance Variability on Middle Atmospheric Ozone
10:30 – 11:00 a.m.
Break
11:00 – 11:25 a.m.
Richard C. Willson (Invited), NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California
LASP/TRF Diagnostic Test Results for the ACRIM3 Experiment and Their Implications
for the Multi-Decadal TSI Database
11:25 – 11:40 a.m.
Greg Kopp, LASP, University of Colorado-Boulder
Status of the Total Solar Irradiance Climate Data Record
11:40 – 11:55 p.m.
Erik Richard, LASP, University of Colorado-Boulder
Future SSI Records for JPSS TSIS
11:55 – 1:30 p.m.
Buffet Lunch provided at the Sedona Hilton
Session 1 cont. Solar Irradiance Cycles
Chair: Greg Kopp, LASP, Univ. of Colorado
1:30 – 1:55 p.m.
Werner Schmutz (Invited), PMOD/WRC, Davos, Switzerland
PREMOS TSI Results
1:55 – 2:10 p.m.
Steven Dewitte, Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Brussels
First Results of the Sova-Picard TSI Instrument
2:10 – 2:25 p.m.
Claus Fröhlich, PMOD/WRC, Davos, Switzerland
Reconstruction of TSI and Lyman-alpha back to 1913
2:25 – 2:40 p.m.
Judith Lean, NRL, Washington, DC
Solar Irradiance Decadal Trends: Real Variability or Instrument Instability?
2:40 – 3:15 p.m.
Break
3:15 – 3:40 p.m.
Thierry Dudok de Wit (Invited), CNRS and University of Orléans, France
A Blind Source Separation Approach to the Solar Spectral Irradiance: What does the
coherence of its variability tell us?
3:40 – 3:55 p.m.
Dora Preminger, San Fernando Observatory, California State University, Northridge
The Effects of Active Regions on Solar Spectral Variability: Implications for the Sun's
influence on climate
3:55 – 4:10 p.m.
Matthieu Kretzschmar, Royal Observatory of Belgium/CNRS, Univ. of Orleans, France
Status and Last Results from the PROBA2/LYRA Solar Radiometer
4:10 – 4:25 p.m.
Jeff Morrill, NRL, Washington, DC
Solar UV Spectral Irradiance Measured by SUSIM During Solar Cycle 22 and 23
4:25 – 5:00 p.m.
Gary Rottman (Invited), LASP, Univ. of Colorado-Boulder
Solar Variability 1981 to 1989 as Measured by the Solar Mesosphere Explorer
Wednesday, Sept. 14
Session 2.
Climate System Decadal Variability
Chair: Judith Lean, NRL, Washington, DC
8:10 – 8:35 a.m.
Vikram Mehta (Invited), Center for Research on the Changing Earth System
(CRCES), Maryland
A Multi-Century History of Solar and Climate Variabilities at Decadal Timescales
8:35 – 8:50 a.m.
Alexander Ruzmaiken, NASA JPL, California Institute of Technology, California
Decadal Variability of Tropical Pacific Temperature in Relation to Solar Cycles
8:50 – 9:05 a.m.
John McCormack, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC
Characterizing the Global Impacts of Solar Variability from the Ground to the
Thermosphere Using Data Assimilations
9:05 – 9:30 a.m.
Mark Serreze (Invited), National Snow & Ice Data Center, CIRES, Univ. of
Colorado, Boulder
External Forcing, Internal Climate Variability and the Arctic’s Rapidly Shrinking
Sea Ice Cover
9:30 – 9:45 a.m.
Stergios Misios, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany
Mechanisms Involved in the Amplification of the Solar Cycle Signal in the Tropical
Pacific Ocean
9:45 – 10:10 a.m.
Break
Session 2 cont. Climate System Decadal Variability
Chair: Vikram Mehta, Center for Research on the Changing Earth System, Maryland
10:10 –10:50 a.m.
Keynote: Karin Labitzke, Freie Universität Berlin, Germany
On the QBO-Solar Relationship throughout the Year
10:50 –11:05 a.m.
Hua Lu, British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
Non-linear and non-stationary Influences of Geomagnetic Activity on the Winter North
Atlantic Oscillation
11:05 –11:30 a.m.
Pat Hamill (Invited), San Jose State University, California
Physical and Optical Properties of the Stratospheric Aerosol Layer
11:30 – 11:45 a.m.
Lon Hood, Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, University of Arizona, Tucson
The Tropical Lower Stratospheric Response to 11-Year Solar Forcing: Dynamical
Feedbacks from the Troposphere-Ocean Response
11:45 – 12:00 p.m.
Jae Lee, NASA JPL, California Institute of Technology, California
Aura Microwave Limb Sounder Observations of the Polar Middle Atmosphere: Dynamics
and Transport of CO and H2O
12:00 – 12:15 p.m.
Hiroko Miyahara, University of Tokyo, Japan
Decadal Variations of Solar Magnetic Field, Heliosphere and the Cosmic Rays, and
Their Impact on Climate Change
12:15 – 12:30 p.m.
King-Fai Li (for Shuhui Wang), NASA JPL, California Institute of Technology,
California
Atmospheric OH Response to the 11-year Solar Cycle – Could the gap between
model and observations be filled by SORCE data?
12:30 – 1:45 p.m.
Buffet Lunch provided at the Sedona Hilton
Session 3.
Comparative Sun-Star Cycles
Chair: Marty Snow, LASP, University of Colorado
1:45 – 2:25 p.m.
Keynote: Richard R. Radick, Air Force Research Lab., Natl. Solar Observatory,
Sunspot, NM
Cyclic Variations of Sun-like Stars
2:25 – 2:40 p.m.
Wes Lockwood, Lowell Observatory, Flagstaff, Arizona
Solar Variability after Dark: Photometric Evidence from Stars and Planets
2:40 – 3:05 p.m.
Ben Brown (Invited), University of Wisconsin-Madison
Modeling Sun-like Stars
3:05 – 3:30 p.m.
Travis Metcalfe (Invited), NCAR, Boulder, Colorado
The HAO-NOAO-SMARTS Southern HK Project
3:30 – 3:55 p.m.
Tom Ayres (Invited), CASA, University of Colorado, Boulder
What about the other Suns?
3:55 – 5:30 p.m.
Poster Session – Brief Introduction and Reception
Thursday, Sept. 15
Session 4.
Climate Sensitivity and Global Energy Imbalance
Chair: Robert Cahalan, NASA GSFC, Climate Radiation Lab., Greenbelt, Maryland
8:30 – 9:10 a.m.
Keynote: Gerald North, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas
Climate Sensitivity
9:10 – 9:35 a.m.
Brian Soden (Invited), Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmos. Science, Univ. of
Miami, Florida
Understanding Climate Feedbacks Using Radiative Kernels
9:35- 10:00 a.m.
Andrew Dessler (Invited), Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas
Observational Constraints on the Water Vapor and Cloud Feedbacks
10:00 – 10:30 a.m.
Break
10:30 – 11:10 a.m.
Keynote: Kevin Trenberth, NCAR, Boulder, Colorado
Tracking Earth Energy: From El Niño to Global Warming
11:10 – 11:25 a.m.
Seiji Kato (Invited), NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia
Interannual Variability of Top-of-Atmosphere Albedo Observed by CERES Instruments
11:25 – 11:40 a.m.
Peter Pilewskie (for Sebastian Schmidt), LASP, University of Colorado-Boulder
The Spectral Radiative Effects of Inhomogeneous Clouds and Aerosols
11:40 – 1:30 p.m.
Box Lunch provided at the Sedona Hilton
Session 5.
Solar Rotational Variability
Chair: Tom Woods, LASP, University of Colorado-Boulder
1:30 – 1:45 p.m.
Marty Snow, LASP, University of Colorado-Boulder
Rotational Variability in the Ultraviolet Solar Spectral Irradiance
1:45 – 2:00 p.m.
Matthieu Kretzschmar, Royal Observatory of Belgium/CNRS, Univ. of Orleans, France
Do We Understand Solar Irradiance Variations during Solar Rotations? A multi
instrument study
2:00 – 2:15 p.m.
Bill Peterson, LASP, University of Colorado-Boulder
Photoelectrons as a Tool to Evaluate Solar EUV and XUV Model Irradiance
Spectra
2:15 – 2:30 p.m.
Hari Om Vats, Physical Research Laboratory, Ahmedabad, India
Rotational Modulation on Total Solar Irradiance
3:20 – 3:30 p.m.
Load buses/vans for Lowell Observatory
3:30 – 9:00 p.m.
Lowell Observatory Fieldtrip / SORCE Science Meeting Dinner
Friday, Sept. 16
Session 6.
Modeling and Forecasting Solar Cycles and Climate Impacts
Chair: Erik Richard, LASP, University of Colorado
8:00 – 8:40 a.m.
Keynote: Kyle Swanson, University of Wisconsin – Madison
Climate Regime Shifts
8:40 – 8:55 a.m.
Robert Cahalan, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Modeling Climate Response to Variations in Spectral Solar Irradiance
8:55 – 9:20 a.m.
Bill Swartz (Invited), Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory, Maryland
Decadal Variability in the Atmosphere
9:20 – 9:35 a.m.
King-Fai Li, California Institute of Technology / Australian National University
Modeling the 11-year Solar Cycle Response in Upper Atmosphere Hydroxyl Radicals
9:35 – 9:50 a.m.
Gary Chapman, San Fernando Observatory, California State University, Northridge
Modeling TSI Variations from SORCE/TIM
9:50 – 10:05 a.m.
Nicola Scafetta, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
Heliospheric Oscillations and Their Implication for Climate Oscillations and Climate
Forecast
10:05 – 10:20 a.m.
Break
10:20 – 10:45 a.m.
Judith Lean (Invited), NRL, Washington, DC
Forecasting Climate and Ozone Changes on Multi Decadal Time Scales
10:45 – 11:00 a.m.
Madhulika (Lika) Guhathakurta, NASA Headquarters, Washington DC
Heliophysics Research in LWS/ILWS
11:00 – 11:15 a.m.
Ken Tapping, Herzberg Institute of Astrophysics, Penticton, BC, Canada
The Next Generation in Solar Radio Monitoring
11:15 – 11:30 a.m.
Peter Pilewskie, LASP, Univ. of Colorado-Boulder
Solar Spectral Irradiance and Climate
11:30 – 11:45 a.m.
Tom Woods, LASP, University of Colorado-Boulder
Solar Irradiance Variations during Solar Cycle 24
11:45 – 12:15 p.m.
Meeting Summary / Discussion (led by Tom Woods)
Decadal Cycles in the Sun, Sun-like Stars, and Earth’s Climate System
SORCE Science Meeting
Sedona, Arizona * Sept. 13-16, 2011
Poster Session Abstracts
4:00-5:30 p.m., Wednesday, Sept. 15
Summary of Poster Presentations (in alphabetical order):
Angie Cookson, San Fernando Observatory, California State University, Northridge
Mind the Gap: How well can SFO ground-based photometry construct future missing TSI
measurements?
Thierry Dudok de Wit, CNRS and University of Orléans, France
How Different did the Solar UV Irradiance Evolve during the Last Solar Cycle?
Thierry Dudok de Wit and Matthieu Kretzschmar, CNRS and University of Orléans, France
Online Nowcast and Forecast of the Solar Spectral Irradiance
Wolfgang Finsterle (presented by Werner Schmutz), Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observ. / WRC,
Davos, Switzerland
The TIM-to-WRR Comparison
Claus Fröhlich, Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observ./WRC, Davos, Switzerland
Solar Spectral Irradiance during Solar Cycle 23 from SPM/VIRGO Observations: An Update
Matthieu Kretzschmar, Royal Observatory of Belgium/CNRS, Univ. of Orleans, France
Small Flares Contributing to Total Solar Irradiance Variations
Doug Lindholm, LASP, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder
SORCE Solar Irradiance Data Products and the LASP Interactive Solar Irradiance Data Center
(LISIRD)
Nicola Scafetta, ACRIM, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
Are Solar Irradiance Cycles Linked to the Planetary Oscillations?
James Struck, Evanston, Illinois
Comparing Our Sun to Observations of Supernova-Nova-Exploding-Changing Stars-Exploring the Bethe
Carbon Cycle Model through Comparison to Recent Changes in Stars
Hari Om Vats, Astronomy Astrophysics Division, Physical Research Laboratory, Ahmedabad, India;
and Niraj Pandya, Tolani College of Arts and Science, Adipur, Gujarat, India
Asymmetric Distribution of Solar X-Ray Flares
Guoyong Wen, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland; and GESTART/Morgan
State University
Application of a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Radiative-Convective Model to Study the Temperature
Response in Spectral Solar Variability on Decadal and Centennial Time Scales
Kok Leng Yeo, Max-Planck-Institut für Sonnensytemforschung, Katlenburg-Lindau, Germany
Comparing Irradiance Reconstructions from HMI/SDO Magnetograms with SORCE Observations