Friday, June 4, 2010
TSI and SSI reconstruction back to
the Maunder minimum
Friday, June 4, 2010
Can the Sun contribute to the
climate change?
Friday, June 4, 2010
Friday, June 4, 2010
Lean
Foster
Lean
Lean
Steinhilber
Krivova
Wang
Schatten
Solanki
Hoyt
Outline
• Calculations of the present TSI
and SSI
• Reconstruction to the past
Friday, June 4, 2010
The COSI code
COde for Solar Irradiance
Werner Schmutz
Ivan Hubeny
Margit Haberreiter
Micha Shoell
Alexander Shapiro
Friday, June 4, 2010
The COSI code
Populations of the NLTE Levels
NLTE Model Atmosphere
Code
Spectrum Synthesis
Program
~107 lines
~102 lines
Opacity Distribution Function
Friday, June 4, 2010
Comparison with SORCE
COSI
SORCE
FCOSI/FSORCE
COSI
SORCE
FCOSI/FSORCE
6
Friday, June 4, 2010
Comparison with SORCE
COSI
SORCE
COSI
SORCE
electrons and H- are in NLTE
FCOSI/FSORCE
FCOSI/FSORCE
6
Friday, June 4, 2010
5
4
3
2
1
0
125
0.08
130
135
0.04
0.02
Irradiance [W m-2nm-1] Irradiance [W m-2nm-1] Irradiance [W m-2nm-1]
145
150
155
160
SOLSPEC
COSI
0.06
0.00
160
1.0
0.8
140
180
200
220
240
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
240
2.0
260
280
300
320
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
320
2.5
2.0
340
360
380
400
420
440
Wavelength [nm]
460
480
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
400
Friday, June 4, 2010
Irradiance [W m-2nm-1] Irradiance [W m-2nm-1] Irradiance [W m-2nm-1] Irradiance [W m-2nm-1] Irradiance [W m-2nm-1]
Irradiance [W m-2nm-1]
Irradiance ·10-4 [W m-2nm-1]
Comparison with SOLSPEC
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
480
2.0
500
520
540
560
580
600
620
640
660
680
700
720
740
760
780
800
820
840
Wavelength [nm]
860
880
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
560
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
640
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
720
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
800
Irradiance from the active solar components
Quiet Sun 1365.5 W/m2
Plage 1464.07 W/m2
Bright network 1379.9 W/m2
Sunspot 260.4 W/m2
Friday, June 4, 2010
Irradiance from the active solar components
Quiet Sun 1365.5 W/m2
Plage 1464.07 W/m2
Bright network 1379.9 W/m2
Sunspot 260.4 W/m2
less contrast
Friday, June 4, 2010
Variability
0.4
Plage-QS
3.5
LTE
NLTE
0.3
0.2
Plage/QS
3.0
LTE
NLTE
2.5
2.0
0.1
1.5
0.0
200
0.15
300
400
500
600
BN-QS
0.10
700
1.0
200
1.6
LTE
1.5
NLTE
1.4
F/C
F - C [W m-2nm-1]
4.0
P/C
P - C [W m-2nm-1]
0.5
0.05
250
300
BN/QS
350
400
LTE
NLTE
1.3
1.2
1.1
0.00
200
Friday, June 4, 2010
300
400
500
Wavelength [nm]
600
700
1.0
200
250
300
350
Wavelength [nm]
400
Conclusions from the Part I
Friday, June 4, 2010
Conclusions from the Part I
Very good agreement with SOLSTICE+SIM/SORCE
and SOLSPEC/ATLAS 3 measurements
Friday, June 4, 2010
Conclusions from the Part I
Very good agreement with SOLSTICE+SIM/SORCE
and SOLSPEC/ATLAS 3 measurements
NLTE effects change the overall
structure of the solar spectrum
Friday, June 4, 2010
Outline
• Calculations of the present TSI
and SSI
• Reconstruction to the past
Friday, June 4, 2010
Solar variability modeling
Sun=Quiet Sun + Active Sun
ISun(!)=IQuiet Sun (!) +IActive Sun (!)
Plage Model P
Bright network
Model F
Quiet Sun Model C
Sunspots Model S
Friday, June 4, 2010
Solar variability modeling
Sun=Quiet Sun + Active Sun
ISun(!)=IQuiet Sun (!) +IActive Sun (!)
Plage Model P
11 - year cycle
Bright network
Model F
Quiet Sun Model C
Sunspots Model S
Friday, June 4, 2010
Solar variability modeling
Sun=Quiet Sun + Active Sun
ISun(!)=IQuiet Sun (!) +IActive Sun (!)
Plage Model P
11 - year cycle
Secular trend
Bright network
Model F
Quiet Sun Model C
Sunspots Model S
Friday, June 4, 2010
26
15 % of the solar disk
Kitt Peak
Quiet
Sun
J. O. Stenflo
Figure 5. Illustration of the fractal-like pattern of magnetic fields on the quiet from
Sun.Stenflo
Theetrectal. (2008)
angular area covered by the left map (from Kitt Peak) is about 15% of the area of the solar disk,
while the map to the right (from the Swedish La Palma telescope) covers an area that is 100 times
Friday, June 4, 2010
2626
15 % of the solar disk
Quiet
Sun
J.J.O.O.Stenflo
Stenflo
SST
Kitt of
Peak
Figure
Illustration
ofthethefractal-like
fractal-likepattern
patternofofmagnetic
magneticfields
fieldsonon
thequiet
quietSun.
Sun.The
TherectrectFigure
5. 5. Illustration
the
from Stenflo
et al. (2008)
angular
area
covered
left
map(from
(fromKitt
KittPeak)
Peak)isisabout
about15%
15%ofofthe
thearea
areaofofthe
thesolar
solardisk,
disk,
angular
area
covered
byby
thethe
left
map
while
the
map
right
(from
Swedish
Palmatelescope)
telescope)covers
coversananarea
areathat
thatisis100
100times
times
while
the
map
to to
thethe
right
(from
thethe
Swedish
LaLaPalma
Friday, June
4,
2010
smaller. Bright and dark areas correspond to magnetic flux of positive and negative polarities,
Quiet Sun decomposition
Quiet Sun = Even Quieter Sun + (Quiet Sun - Even Quieter Sun)
Friday, June 4, 2010
Quiet Sun decomposition
Quiet Sun = Even Quieter Sun + (Quiet Sun - Even Quieter Sun)
Faint supergranule
cell interior
Model A
Friday, June 4, 2010
Quiet Sun decomposition
Quiet Sun = Even Quieter Sun + (Quiet Sun - Even Quieter Sun)
Faint supergranule
cell interior
Model A
Friday, June 4, 2010
Average network
Model E
Quiet Sun decomposition
Quiet Sun = Even Quieter Sun + (Quiet Sun - Even Quieter Sun)
Faint supergranule
cell interior
Model A
Average network
Model E
REAL OBSERVED COMPONENTS!
Friday, June 4, 2010
Filling factors
TSI (QS)= αcold QS⋅TSI(cold QS) + αworm QS⋅TSI(warm QS)
cold QS - model A; warm QS - model E
Friday, June 4, 2010
Filling factors
TSI (QS)= αcold QS⋅TSI(cold QS) + αworm QS⋅TSI(warm QS)
cold QS - model A; warm QS - model E
αcold QS ≈0.45
αwarm QS ≈0.55
Friday, June 4, 2010
Filling factors
TSI (QS)= αcold QS⋅TSI(cold QS) + αworm QS⋅TSI(warm QS)
cold QS - model A; warm QS - model E
1.6
Fwarm QS/FQS
1.4
Fcomposite/FQS
F / FFALC
1.2
1.0
0.8
Fcold QS/FQS
0.6
0.4
200
Friday, June 4, 2010
300
400
500
Wavelength [nm]
600
αcold QS ≈0.45
αwarm QS ≈0.55
Filling factors
TSI (QS)= αcold QS⋅TSI(cold QS) + αworm QS⋅TSI(warm QS)
cold QS - model A; warm QS - model E
αwarm QS ∼<activity>
αcold QS ≈0.45
αwarm QS ≈0.55
Fwarm QS/FQS
1.6
1.4
Fcomposite/FQS
F / FFALC
1.2
1.0
0.8
Fcold QS/FQS
0.6
0.4
200
Friday, June 4, 2010
300
400
500
Wavelength [nm]
600
Filling factors
TSI (QS)= αcold QS⋅TSI(cold QS) + αworm QS⋅TSI(warm QS)
cold QS - model A; warm QS - model E
αwarm QS ∼<activity>
αcold QS ≈0.45
αwarm QS ≈0.55
Fwarm QS/FQS
1.6
1.4
Sunspot group numbers
Fcomposite/FQS
from 1610
F / FFALC
1.2
1.0
0.8
Fcold QS/FQS
0.6
0.4
200
Friday, June 4, 2010
300
400
500
Wavelength [nm]
600
Filling factors
TSI (QS)= αcold QS⋅TSI(cold QS) + αworm QS⋅TSI(warm QS)
cold QS - model A; warm QS - model E
αwarm QS ∼<activity>
αcold QS ≈0.45
αwarm QS ≈0.55
Fwarm QS/FQS
1.6
1.4
Sunspot group numbers
Fcomposite/FQS
from 1610
F / FFALC
1.2
1.0
0.8
Fcold QS/F
QS
Cosmogenic
isotopes
from 9000 BC
0.6
0.4
200
Friday, June 4, 2010
300
400
500
Wavelength [nm]
600
Search for proxy
TSI, W/m2
1367.5
1367.0
TSI
1366.5
1366.0
1365.5
1365.0
1364.5
1940
1200
1960
1980
2000
Modulation
\, MeV
1000
South Pole 10Be
800
600
DYE 3 10Be
400
neutron monitor
200
1940
1960
1980
Year
Friday, June 4, 2010
2000
Reconstruction of the TSI
TSI, W/m2
1368
1366
TSI
1364
1362
1360
1358
1600
\, MeV
700
600
1700
1800
1900
2000
1800
Year
1900
2000
Modulation
500
400
300
200
100
1600
Friday, June 4, 2010
1700
Reconstruction of the TSI
TSI
TSI, W/m2
1370
1365
1360
-500
1000
0
500
1000
2000
Modulation
800
\, MeV
1500
600
400
200
0
-500
Friday, June 4, 2010
0
500
1000
Year (AD)
1500
2000
Flux, W/m2
Flux, mW/m2
Reconstruction of the SSI
110
100
90
80
70
60
1600
1.6
1.5
26.6 %
1700
1800
1900
2000
Herzberg continuum, 200-242 nm
1.4
10.9 %
1.3
1600
34.5
Flux, W/m2
Schumann-Runge bands, 175-200 nm
1700
1800
1900
2000
CN violet system, 370-400 nm
34.0
33.5
3.2 %
Flux, W/m2
33.0
1600
188.6
188.4
188.2
188.0
187.8
1600
Friday, June 4, 2010
1700
1800
1900
2000
500-600 nm
0.4 %
1700
1800
Year
1900
2000
Friday, June 4, 2010
Lean
Foster
Lean
Lean
Steinhilber
Krivova
Wang
Schatten
Solanki
Hoyt
Conclusions from the Part II
Friday, June 4, 2010
Foster
Steinhilber
Solanki
Hoyt
our result
Lean
Lean
Lean
Krivova
Wang
Schatten
Conclusions from the Part II
Conclusions from the Part II
Friday, June 4, 2010
Conclusions from the Part II
We obtained TSI and SSI that was substantially different
during the Maunder minimum than as it is observed today
Friday, June 4, 2010
Conclusions from the Part II
We obtained TSI and SSI that was substantially different
during the Maunder minimum than as it is observed today
The difference is remarkably larger than other estimations
published in the recent literature
Friday, June 4, 2010
Conclusions from the Part II
We obtained TSI and SSI that was substantially different
during the Maunder minimum than as it is observed today
Version 1 is ready for distribution
The difference is remarkably larger than other estimations
published in the recent literature
Friday, June 4, 2010
Conclusions from the Part II
We obtained TSI and SSI that was substantially different
during the Maunder minimum than as it is observed today
Version 1 is ready for distribution
The difference is remarkably larger than other estimations
published in the recent literature
THANK YOU!
Friday, June 4, 2010