Proposed Ozone Heating
Impacts on the Lower
Atmosphere Hemispheric Wave
Pattern
(SORCE Conference)
NOAA/NESDIS
Office of Satellite Applications & Research
2/4/2004
Dr. Alfred M. Powell Jr
5 Dec 2003
Satellite Applications & Research
Agenda
• Describe the Solar UV-Lower Atmosphere
Mechanism
– Static Stability
– Wave Growth/Change
• Hemispheric Analysis
– Temperature Patterns
– Spectrum/Time Series Analysis (prototype analysis/graphs)
• Relationship to Climate
• Summary
Satellite Applications & Research
Solar-Terrestrial Mechanism
• Induces Long Wave and Synoptic System Growth
–
Changing tropospheric & stratospheric static stability affects the synoptic long wave
pattern -- the shorter waves tend to become more stable and the critical wavelength for
instability shifts
• LC = ∆pπ (2σ)1/2 / f0
–
–
–
LC is the critical wavelength
π is a numerical constant,
f0 is the coriolis
TOTAL
ENERGY
- ∆p is the change in pressure
- σ is the static stability
λ1
λ2
λ...
λN-1
λN
Critical wavelength shift doesn’t
imply energy goes in one direction
Energy AND Angular Momentum must be conserved!
λC Shift
Satellite Applications & Research
200 mb Pattern Changes
3500
15.1000
3300
15.0800
3100
15.0600
2900
15.0400
2700
15.0200
2500
15.0000
2300
14.9800
2100
14.9600
1900
14.9400
Dark blue - Modeled UV
1700
Purple – Observed Solar Flux
1500
1 2 3
January 1989
4 5 6 7 8
200-400 nm UV (W/m2)
F10.7 Flux ( x 10)
F10.7 and UV Values
F10.7 Flux
UV Flux
14.9200
14.9000
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Days - January 1989
Satellite Applications & Research
200 mb Pattern Changes
200 mb key
<220 deg K
200 mb Temperatures (K) - January 1989
221-229 deg K
One degree contours
>230 deg K
Satellite Applications & Research
1 Jan
200mb Power Spectral
Field Difference
Comparison
Seasonal Change 1989
(Selected dates to show trend)
Mar
May
Sep
Nov
Jul
Dec 31
Satellite Applications & Research
Time Series (1989)
One Year
Half Year (Harmonic)
Satellite Applications & Research
Time Series (1989)
54-day
27-day
25-day
Satellite Applications & Research
Solar-Terrestrial
Mechanism
• Mechanism:
– Does not require significant solar output
changes
• Only need naturally occurring variability in
certain wavelengths
– Re-distributes energy in atmosphere more
effectively at times
• Generates growth/decline in waves
commensurate with solar UV flux changes
Satellite Applications & Research
Maunder Minimum
And Possible Impacts on Climate
Suggested Climate Impacts:
• Re-distribution of
energy in atmospheric
waves possible due to
changing solar flux
Graph and Subtitle Reproduced
From the UCAR
Web site
•Climate change could
be influenced by subtle
changes in dynamics
due to solar variations
(possible example:
events like the
Maunder Minimum)
“This very anachronistic plot shows the variation in observed sunspot numbers during
the time period 1600-1800. The red curve is the Wolf sunspot number, and the purple line
a count of sunspot groups based on a reconstruction by D.V. Hoyt. The green crosses
are auroral counts, based on a reconstruction by K. Krivsky and J.P Legrand.”
Satellite Applications & Research
Solar-Terrestrial Mechanism
Summary
– Proposed mechanism has a consistent formulation
– ‘Evidence’ consistent with a number of current/past studies
– Analysis using the NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis Data is
consistent with S-T mechanism’s premise
– Power spectrum analysis seems to support concept
– Time series analysis indicates changes in Mid-latitudes
– Analysis confirms prior work of others
• strong winter month correlation and weak summer month
correlation
– Provides a testable mechanism and hypothesis
– More research is required
Satellite Applications & Research