ITU Regional Economic and Financial Forum of Telecommunications/ICT for Africa Costing and tariff policies in the region São Tomé and Principe, 2‐3 February Presented By Mr. Vieira Sapalo São Tomé and Príncipe is a small island nation of the western coast of mainland Africa. Briefing: Economic Context Social & Cultural Context Technological Context 2013 Growth 2012 1.001 km2 - GDP ($M) 311 17% Population 192,000 2.6% Urban population 67% 1.25% Per capita GDP ($) 1,609 4% Poverty (%Pop) 61.7% - Ranking on the Human Development Index # 142 - Surface area Currency: Dobra (STD) 1 EUR = STD 24.500 1 $ = STD 21.087 • Of the 1.001 km2 that constitute the Santomean surface area, more than 800 km2 are taken up by the island of São Tomé, Príncipe taking up the rest; • With a population growth rate of 2% per annum, the island presents high population density, around 188 inhabitants per square kilometer; • Per capita GDP is among the lowest in Africa, under $1,609. However, it is growing (4% a year); • More than 50% of the population lives on less than US$3.50 a day. However, the informal sector is pointed out as a challenge to accurate measurement of consumption by Santomeans; • The Human Development Index presents low figures. Yet, cross-referencing the Santomean pattern with similar countries, STP is better positioned. ... and where per capita GDP remains below African average Economic Context Evolution of GDP and National per capita Income Unit: $ current 1,090 1,134 1,128 550 539 665 628 630 Social & Cultural Context National per capita income 1,355 1,402 1998 2000 2002 708 736 782 883 1,080 1,140 1,240 • National per capital income has doubled in a 10-year period 1,320 970 710 740 2004 800 2006 PIB per Capita 850 2008 2010 2012 2014 RN per Capita • Per capita GDP remains low when compared to the African average Per Capita GDP 2013 São Tomé Ghana Technological Context Nigéria Cabo Verde Angola • GDP increases are matched at the same rate by population growth and results on the increase of the National Income until 2018 1,609 USD 1,850 USD 3,005 USD 3,784 USD 5,668 USD Development of Telecommunication Operators, Products and Services UNITEL Voice Texts Mobile Internet Voice Social Networking Texts Video Calls Market Evolution and Penetration in STP 62% 68% Subscriptions 71% (2012) 50% Penetration of Telecommunication Services 32% 0% 0% 1% 3% 5% 8% 12% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 122,000 19% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Evolution of Land Line Telephony Penetration 3.3% 2000 3.8% 2001 4.4% 4.7% 2002 2003 4.7% 2004 4.7% 4.9% 2005 2006 4.9% 4.8% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 2011 2012 8,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 Evolution of Land Line Broadband Penetration 0.52% 0.42% 0.20% 0.22% 2007 2008 0.27% 0.34% 900 0.08% 0.00% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2009 2010 2011 2012 • Mobile currently enjoys 71% penetration and has reached the maturity stage. • Subscriptions to landlines have been decreasing since 2006, having been surpassed by mobile in 2004. Only a restricted set of people have access to land line telephony services. • Broadband Internet served over land lines has been growing 20% a year, however, it serves less than 1% of the population. Data client numbers grow faster than voice client numbers, as penetration in voice services has almost stagnated Population Penetration X = Total Market Voice Market Assumptions: (2012) 62.1% 68.3% 71.0% 71.7% 72.4% 73.1% 73.9% 74.6% • Population CAGR 2% • Mobile penetration CAGR at 1%, consistent with market maturity. 49.7% 31.6% Data Market Assumptions: 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (2012) 2015 2016 14.1% 10,8% 7.1% 4.7% 2017 • The future standard will be consistent with data market evolution in Africa (penetration will reach 10.8% within 3 years) and inferior growth in 2017, bringing penetration to 14.1%. 1.8% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: IMF, ITU, Deloitte, Assumptions validated by Client Market Evolution in the Region Product Pricing Regional market evolution has trended towards decreasing prices and changing supply. Three global phenomena to consider: Touch screens dominate the market, the emergence of low-price and high-end segment terminals, and also tablets as a secondary device. Variation of pricing for mobile terminal sets ($) Evolution of tablet quantity and pricing 70 60 50 40 Number of Tablets (millions) Average Tablet Price ($) 30 20 10 0 Evolution of Smartphone Penetration (South Africa) 8 10 13 Alcatel One Touch Nokia 110 Huawei E177 15 Smartphone Weight For total number of cell phones Millions of Smartphones 5 8% 13% 17% 22% 26% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Note: Prices shown refer to retail, no-contract prices 30% 33% Smart mini Nokia 108 Média Amostra Generalized Technological Accession • An addition to quick uptake of smart phones and tablets, low-priced handsets have emerged. These devices have had significant impact in the higher penetration of mobile devices worldwide (especially in developing countries). Source: PriceTRAX, Deloitte Retail payment plans in regional markets where Unitel operates Comparision of retail plans based on local market $30.00 $0.30 $0.28 $25.99 $0.25 GPRS services are cheaper in Cape Verde. $20.00 $0.20 $0.16 $0.15 $0.12 $0.05 $25.00 $24.07 $0.20 $0.10 $0.28 $15.00 $0.12 $9.20 $9.20 $0.05 $0.09 $0.10 $0.09 $0.10 $10.00 $5.00 $0.00 $0.00 cst Unitel STP Movicel Unitel Angola Data/GB Dados/GB Voice/min Voz/minuto Note: Rates applied in communications within each operator's network. Values expressed in US Dollars (USD) CVMovel Cabo Verde SMS Per-minute voice rates between Operators: STP Unitel CST: $0,12 CST Unitel: $0,20 Cape Verde $7.10 $6.10 $0.05 Unitel From the market analysis conducted in 3 countries, it was concluded that, concerning basic voice and SMS tariff, São Tomé and Príncipe offers the lowest rates. Unitel CVMovel: $0,47 CVMovel Unitel: $0,37 Angola Unitel Movicel: $0,25 Movicel Unitel: $0,21 Regulation and Legislation of the sector in STP Decree no. 23/2007 • In S. Tomé and Príncipe, AGER is responsible for regulating and overseeing telecommunication sectors and services. • Telecom rates are integrated through definition of a base price, which must abide by an averaged price for the service or service package submitted for approval. • Operators, submitting to rate integration present to AGER, per the rates indicated on article 4 of Decree no. 23/2007, a calculation to establish that their rates comply with the clauses in the article. • Rate integration is decided by AGER to correct market failures, with the intent to: Make up for absence or insufficiency in service competition. Ensure that operators are treated equitably. Protect the consumer. In sum, Unitel rates in STP are defined based on the financial framework of Decree no. 23/2007. THE END Thank you