Running head: PROGRESS THROUGH THE SEQUENCE
Progress through the Basic Skills Sequence
Rick Fillman
Institutional Research Analyst
Planning and Research Office
January 2012
Progress through the Basic Skills Sequence
2 of 5
Introduction
Success in college level course work depends on a certain level of
literacy and numeracy. Incoming students, however, are often
unprepared for college level courses. This report presents a
compilation recent data that examines the basic skills pipeline at
Cabrillo College.
A student centric view
Course success is possibly the most frequently examined measure at
the college. Course success represents the outcomes from one
classroom from one semester. Therefore, course success speaks to
curriculum and to teaching. Student success, on the other hand,
ought to take a longer view. Students may fail or withdraw in any
single semester, and may repeat. A more interesting measure looks at
what happens to individual students over several semesters.
A longitudinal study looks at individual students’ progress over time.
Usually, individual students are grouped into cohorts according to their
start-year. Then, in order to be able to compare different cohorts with
different start-years, a time window must be imposed. For example,
outcomes are examined after three years for all cohorts1. This way, it
becomes possible to compare the outcomes from various cohorts, even
though they have different start-years. It also means that all cohorts
must be allowed time to reach the endpoint of the time window.
Methodology
For this study, cohorts were assembled around the year of a student’s
first math or English class2 and around the level of that course.
Cohorts were thus assembled from enrollment records. Next, the
members of these cohorts were ‘followed’ for three years, with each
subsequent enrollment in English or math examined and tracked.
Student Assessment/Placement records were also incorporated into
the study. These records include equivalency credit for prerequisite
courses taken at another institution. Thus, in combination with the
1
Most individual student activity in the sequence is concluded within three years, either through
completion, or by stopping out at one of the levels along the way.
2
To establish first-time-in-subject, enrollment records were examined back to fall 2000.
Page 2
Progress through the Basic Skills Sequence
3 of 5
enrollment records, it becomes possible to ascertain how a student
became eligible for enrollment in a particular course.
The cohorts examined in this study are data cohorts, formed for
research convenience. For the most part, students from the several
entry-cohorts did not attend together.3 The average classroom will
consist of students who are at one point or another in their journey
through the sequence.
Students entering the sequence from the lowest level may do so
without undergoing assessment testing; these students may therefore
be regarded has having self-assessed. But from the next level forward,
enrollment is controlled, and restricted to students meeting the
prerequisite – either by the assessment, an equivalency from another
institution, or by way of promotion, having passed the prerequisite
course.
Enrollment in an average classroom for courses in the sequence may
consist of students who are in one of four categories:
• the student qualifies via assessment/placement
• the student qualifies by way of an equivalency
• the student passed the prerequisite course
• the student is repeating the course
Figure 2a (English) and Figure 2b (math) illustrate the mix of
Students that might be expected in the average section English and
math basic skill sequence courses. Data are from 2007-08 through
2010-11.
Attrition points
The length or number of levels in a sequence has implications for
longitudinal attrition. There are two opportunities for attrition at each
level. Attrition obviously occurs when students (after possibly multiple
attempts) do not satisfactorily pass a course. The second opportunity
for attrition involves abstention, procrastination, or possible difficulty
in enrolling in the next course in the sequence. Many students who
are otherwise eligible for the next course in the sequence will stop out.
Some amount of attrition is inevitable, even natural. The effects of
attrition multiply with the number of opportunities. Imagine, for
3
Sections set aside for Learning Communities are a possible exception
Page 3
Progress through the Basic Skills Sequence
4 of 5
example, a program where 80% of the cohort move forward at each
attrition opportunity - a very successful program! After three levels
(and six opportunities for attrition), only about one quarter of the
original cohort would remain. The chart below illustrates how, even
with an extremely enviable rate of progress to the next level, the
throughput is small.
What if attrition were merely 20% at each level?
Conti nua ti on
Ra te
80%
80%
80%
80%
80%
80%
Res ul t
100
80
64
51
41
33
26
students in the entry cohort
pass level 1, eligible to move ahead
enroll level 2
pass level 2, eligible to move ahead
enroll level 3
pass level 3
enroll in College level
Figure 1a (English) and Figure 1b (math) show the actual attrition
rates for Cabrillo College entry-cohorts in math and English. Students
are grouped according to the level of their first course in the sequence
and by year of entry. These data are averages from the four cohorts
from academic year 2004-05 through 2007-08.
More detail on progress through the sequence
Table 1a (English) and Table 1b (math) reveal much more detail
regarding the entry-cohorts and their progress through the
developmental sequence. The following questions are answerable
from the detail datasets.
•
•
•
How many students are entering at a particular level each
academic year?
How many [and what percent] of the entry-cohort successfully
complete coursework at this level?
On average, how many separate enrollments were observed at
this level? In other words, what is the average number of
repeats within this level? 4
4
In math, there may be two courses within one level. Students have the option of completing
Essential Math in two semesters: one semester each of MATH-254A and MATH-254B. This
study glosses over the distinction between repeats in MATH-254, and initial enrollments/repeats
in MATH-254A/B. In other words, all enrollments within this level are counted as attempts.
Further research might examine the efficacy of the MATH-254A/B pathway.
Page 4
Progress through the Basic Skills Sequence
5 of 5
•
How many [and what percent] of those who took courses in one
level enroll in the next level in the sequence?
Following the progress of the cohort from the start-year at the left,
and moving across, left to right, these questions can be answered at
each level. The headcount numbers (highlighted columns) show the
actual number of cohort members persisting at each level in the
sequence.
For example, from Table 1b (Math), one might focus on the 2007-08
entry-cohort starting at 3 levels below transfer. The entry-cohort
consists of 736 individuals. Of these, 61.3% (451) are successful after
one or more enrollments at this level, and are eligible for the next
course. However, only 44.6% (328) students attempt Elementary
Algebra. The individual success rate in Elementary Algebra (after one
or more attempts) for these students is 73.8%. Thus, 242 students
successfully complete the course, and are eligible for Intermediate
Algebra. However, only 145 continue in Intermediate Algebra, and so
on. When it comes to transfer-level math, only 73 students from the
original entry-cohort enroll. Thus, from the 2007-08 entry-court
starting from three levels below, about one in ten enroll in transfer
level math (within three years).
Summary
Student success in a course sequence is not just about what happens
in the classroom, but is also about persisting to the next level.
Sequenced courses ought to be examined sequentially, using
longitudinal cohort analysis of student progress. Perhaps greater
attention should be focused on the attrition opportunities between
completion of one level and enrollment in the next.
Page 5
Progress through the Basic Skills Sequence
Figure 1a
Students starting 2 levels below transfer: [ENGL-255] Basic English
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
74%
30%
55%
45%
20%
29%
10%
0%
Passed Basic
English
Enrolled
Elements of
Writing
Passed Elements Enrolled Transfer
of Writing
level English
Students starting 1 level below transfer: [ENGL-100] Elements of Writing
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
78%
30%
57%
20%
10%
0%
Passed Elements of
Writing
Enrolled Transfer level
English
Starting from 100%, the percent of the entry cohort
remaining is shown at each attrition opportunity.
Data cohorts are from 2004-05 through 2007-08.
Outcomes are examined after three years.
1/31/2012
Progress through the Basic Skills Sequence
Figure 1b
Students starting 3 levels below transfer: [MATH-254] Essential Math
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
65%
47%
20%
34%
21%
10%
16%
11%
0%
Passed Essential
Math
Enrolled
Elementary
Algebra
Passed
Elementary
Algebra
Enrolled
Intermediate
Algebra
Passed
Intermediate
Algebra
Enrolled
Transfer Level
Math
Students starting 2 levels below transfer: [MATH-154] Elementary Algebra
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
71%
30%
54%
20%
39%
27%
10%
0%
Passed
Elementary
Algebra
Enrolled
Intermediate
Algebra
Passed
Intermediate
Algebra
Enrolled
Transfer Level
Math
Starting from 100%, the percent of the entry cohort
remaining is shown at each attrition opportunity.
Data cohorts are from 2004-05 through 2007-08.
Outcomes are examined after three years.
1/31/2012
Progress through the Basic Skills Sequence
Table 1a.
Students, and their progress in the English core sequence
Cohorts formed around students' starting level
Elements of Writing
Basic English
Headcount
(each
student
counted
once)
Academic
Year
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
NN N N N N N
299
513
497
515
Individual
(after one
or more
attempts)
Success
Rate
% of
cohort
Average who
number attempt
of
the next
repeats Level
NN NNNNN NNNNN N N NNNNNNN
77.6%
77.0%
72.6%
68.5%
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.2
Transfer level English
Headcount
(each
student
counted
once)
Individual
(after one
or more
attempts)
Success
Rate
% of
Average cohort who
number attempt
of
the next
repeats Level
NNNNNNN
NNNNNNN
N N N N NNN NNNNN NN

57.5%
59.5%
54.7%
51.1%
172
305
272
263
83.1%
84.3%
81.6%
78.3%
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.2
Headcount
(each
student
counted
once)
Individual
(after one
or more
attempts)
Success
Rate
NNNNNNN
NN N N N NN

43.0%
54.1%
52.6%
52.9%
74
165
143
139
Average
number
of
repeats
N N N N NNN CMicroLine
82.4%
81.8%
81.1%
68.3%
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.1
Students starting 2 levels below transfer [ENGL-255]
Data is
compiled 3
years from
starting the
first course in
the sequence.
Elements of Writing
Academic
Year
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
 
Transfer level English
Headcount
(each
student
counted
once)
Individual
(after one
or more
attempts)
Success
Rate
% of
Average cohort who
number
attempt
of
the next
repeats
Level
NNNNNNN
NNNNNNN
N NNNN N NN
1,150
1,021
962
1,062
78.8%
78.3%
78.0%
78.1%
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
Headcount
(each
student
counted
once)
Individual
(after one
or more
attempts)
Success
Rate
NNNNNNN
NN N NN NN

54.9%
57.9%
57.9%
58.0%
631
591
557
616
Average
number
of
repeats
NNNNNNN CMicroLine
79.9%
81.4%
80.6%
81.7%
1.2
1.3
1.2
1.1
Students starting 1 level below transfer [ENGL-100]
Transfer level English
Cohorts formed around the level and year
of the student's first English enrollment.
Outcomes within three years of first English enrollment.
Academic
Year
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08

Headcount
(each
student
counted
once)
Individual
(after one
or more
attempts)
Success
Rate
NNNNNNN
NN N N N NN
1,008
1,056
950
1,101
Average
number
of
repeats
N CMicroLine
82.7%
82.3%
78.5%
77.0%
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
Students starting at transfer level
1/31/2012
Progress through the Basic Skills Sequence
Table 1b.
Students, and progress in the Math core sequence
Cohorts formed around students' starting level
Elementary Algebra
Essential Math
Headcount
(each
student
counted
once)
Academic
Year
NNNNNNN
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
799
698
700
736
Individual
(after one
or more
attempts)
Success
Rate
Average
number
of
attempts
at this
level*
% of
cohort
who
attempt
the next
Level
NNNNNNN NNNNNNN NNNNNNN
64.7%
67.3%
66.0%
61.3%
1.5
1.6
1.5
1.5
Headcount
(each
student
counted
once)
Individual
(after one
or more
attempts)
Success
Rate
N N NNNNN
NNNNNNN
N
44.7%
51.0%
50.1%
44.6%
357
356
351
328
72.8%
72.2%
70.9%
73.8%
Average
number
of
attempts
at this
level*
Intermediate Algebra
% of
cohort
who
attempt
the next
Level
Individual
Headcount (after one
or more
(each
attempts) Average
student
Success number of
counted
repeats
Rate
once)
N N NNNNN NNNNNNN   NNN N NNN
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.5
45.7%
42.4%
43.3%
44.2%
NNNNNNN NNNNNNN
163
151
152
145
77.9%
74.2%
77.6%
73.8%
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.2
Transfer Level Math
% of
cohort who
attempt
the next
Level
NNNNNNN

52.8%
57.0%
45.4%
50.3%
Headcount
(each
student
counted
once)
Individual
(after one
or more
attempts)
Success
Rate
N N NNNNN
NNNNNNN
86
86
69
73
Average
number
of
repeats
NNNNNNNCMicroLine}
75.6%
83.7%
79.7%
69.9%
1.6
1.5
1.6
1.4
Data is
compiled 3
years from
starting the
first cours
in the
sequence.
Students starting 3 levels below transfer [MATH 254]
Data is compiled 3
years from
starting the first
course in the
sequence.
Elementary Algebra
Academic
Year
Data is
compiled 3
years from
starting the
first course in
the sequence.
Headcount
(each
student
counted
once)
Individual
(after one
or more
attempts)
Success
Rate
NNNNNNN
NNNNNNN
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
718
663
632
706
73.4%
72.7%
69.9%
67.4%
Average
number
of
attempts
at this
level*
Intermediate Algebra
% of
cohort
who
attempt
the next
Level
Individual
Headcount (after one
or more
(each
attempts) Average
student
Success number of
counted
repeats
Rate
once)
N NNNNNNN   NNNNNNN
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
51.3%
54.0%
56.2%
54.4%
NNNNNNN NNNNNNN
368
358
355
384
73.9%
71.5%
71.8%
75.0%
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.3
Transfer Level Math
% of
cohort who
attempt
the next
Level
N N NNNNN

50.3%
50.3%
49.6%
49.5%
Headcount
(each
student
counted
once)
Individual
(after one
or more
attempts)
Success
Rate
NNNNNNN
N N NNNNN
185
180
176
190
Average
number
of
repeats
NNN N NNNCMicroLine}
74.6%
75.0%
83.5%
78.4%
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.6
Students starting 2 levels below transfer [MATH154]
Intermediate Algebra
Cohorts formed around the level and year
of the student's first math enrollment.
Outcomes within three years of first math enrollment.
*The two-semester versions, MATH-254A/B are treated
as separate attempts within the same level.
Transfer Level Math
Individual
% of
Headcount (after one
cohort who
or more
(each
attempt
attempts) Average
student
Success number of the next
counted
Level
Rate
repeats
once)
Academic
Year
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
NNNNNNN
741
798
743
851
NNNN NNN NNNNNNN
77.9%
73.4%
72.8%
69.8%
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.5
NNN N NNN

57.2%
55.4%
55.3%
53.9%
Headcount
(each
student
counted
once)
Individual
(after one
or more
attempts)
Success
Rate
NNNNNNN
NNNNNNN
424
442
411
459
80.9%
75.3%
77.1%
76.3%
Average
number
of
repeats
N N N N NNNCMicroLine}
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.5
Students starting 1 level below transfer [MATH152]
1/31/2012
Progress through the Basic Skills Sequence
Figure 2a.
Average classroom composition
English 255
Unknown,
23%
Repeated,
13%
Placed, 64%
Equivalency,
1%
English 100
Unknown, 6%
Repeated,
19%
Placed, 54%
Promoted,
18%
Equivalency,
3%
English 1A
Repeated,
16%
Promoted,
37%
Unknown, 4%
Placed, 35%
Equivalency,
8%
Unknown: For the first course in the sequence, "Unknown" may be interpreted as "self-palced".
Placed = the student qualifies via assessment/placement
Equivalency = the student qualifies by way of an equivalency from another institution
Promoted = the student passed the prerequisite course
Repeated = the student is repeating the course
Based on enrollments from four recent years:
AY 2007-08 through AY 2010-11.
Source: Cabrillo College Research Data Warehouse.
1/31/2012
Progress through the Basic Skills Sequence
Figure 2b.
Average classroom composition
Math 254
Unknown,
21%
Repeated,
16%
Placed, 62%
Equivalency,
1%
Math 154
Unknown, 2%
Repeated,
30%
Placed, 39%
Promoted,
22%
Equivalency,
6%
Unknown, 2%
Repeated,
30%
Promoted,
28%
Math 152
Placed, 34%
Equivalency,
7%
Unknown: For the first course in the sequence, "Unknown" may be interpreted as "self-palced".
Placed = the student qualifies via assessment/placement
Equivalency = the student qualifies by way of an equivalency from another institution
Promoted = the student passed the prerequisite course
Repeated = the student is repeating the course
Based on enrollments from four recent years:
AY 2007-08 through AY 2010-11.
Enrollments in two-semester sequence MATH-254A/B and MATH
154A/B were excluded .
Source: Cabrillo College Research Data Warehouse.
1/31/2012