Presented by
John Fairbank, Partner
Curtis Below, Vice-President
Lucia Del Puppo, Research Associate
CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT. NOT FOR PUBLICATION. CA GOVT CODE 6254
September 9-20, 2015
220-4210
Methodology
800 telephone interviews with registered likely
November 2016 voters in Santa Cruz County
 Interviews conducted September 9 - 20, 2015
 Interviews on landlines and cell phones
 Interviews conducted in English and Spanish
Margin of sampling error for the full sample is
+/- 4.5% at the 95% confidence level
 Some percentages may not sum to 100% due to
rounding
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1
Methodology
An oversampling methodology was adopted to ensure a
representative sample was obtained in smaller areas:
City
Sample Size Oversample
Margin of
Error
Santa Cruz
125
-75
+/-8.8%
Capitola
125
+93
+/-8.8%
Watsonville
125
+53
+/-8.8%
Scotts Valley
125
+85
+/-8.8%
250
-174
+/-6.2%
50
+18
+/-13.9%
Uninc. Santa Cruz
County
Uninc. San
Benito/Monterey
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Key Findings
Voters in Santa Cruz County feel very positively about both the direction in
which the County and their city are headed.
 Two to one voters say the County is headed in the ‘right direction’
Nearly all voters are familiar with Cabrillo College and 79% have a
personal connection to it.
Voters think highly of the college’s performance. However, more than twothirds (70%)think Cabrillo is in need of additional funding.
Support for the $310 million “Cabrillo College Technology, Job Training,
and Classroom Repair” measure is very strong.
 78% of voters say they would vote ‘yes’ if the election were held today
 There is consistent support across all demographic groups and across the County.
The highest priority spending areas are job training, student preparation
for four-year university training, and qualifying for state-matching funds.
The most compelling positive messages relate to the college’s
affordability, job training, and veteran services.
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3
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4
Half of voters think Santa Cruz County is
headed in the right direction.
Thinking about Santa Cruz County in general, would you say things are going in the right
direction, or would you say they are off on the wrong track?
Right
Direction
53%
Mixed/
DK/NA
25%
Wrong
Track
22%
CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT. NOT FOR PUBLICATION. CA GOVT CODE 6254
Q1a.
5
Almost three quarters of Capitola and Scotts Valley think
their cities are going in the right direction, whereas half of
Watsonville and Santa Cruz voters feel similarly.
Thinking about
in general, would you say things are going in the right direction, or
would you say they are off on the wrong track?
Right Direction
Capitola
Mixed/DK/NA
73%
Scotts Valley
11%
70%
Watsonville
51%
The City of Santa Cruz
49%
0%
20%
Wrong Track
14%
8%
17%
41%
25%
40%
16%
60%
26%
80%
100%
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Q1b/c/d/e.
6
Nearly all voters are familiar with
Cabrillo College.
From what you know, is there a local community college that serves your area?
Yes,
Cabrillo
College
98%
No/DK/
Not
available
2%
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Q2.
7
A majority of voters and/or their immediate
family members have either attended or
taken a course at Cabrillo.
Have you or someone in your immediate family ever attended or
taken a course at Cabrillo College?
Yes
79%
No/
DK/NA
22%
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Q17.
8
Voters think Cabrillo College is doing an
excellent job.
Please tell me if you think Cabrillo College is doing an excellent job,
a pretty good job, only a fair job, or a poor job.
47% Excellent/
Excellent
Pretty good
37%
Only fair
Poor
Good
85%
5%
0%
DK/NA
Fair/Poor
5%
10%
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
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Q3.
9
Cabrillo College is viewed as an important
alternative to expensive four-year colleges.
Very Acc.
Smwt. Acc.
Because the University of California and
California State systems have become so
expensive, more students are relying on
local community colleges for their
education.
57%
^Cabrillo College does a good job of
educating students in its online education
programs.
33%
^Cabrillo College is fiscally responsible and
has good financial management.
29%
0%
20%
17%
5%
95%
8%
9%
83%
26%
23%
Total
Acc.
DK/NA
78%
Because of the changing economy,
classrooms and labs must be upgraded to
provide students with access to the latest
advances in computers and technology.
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Smwt./Very Inacc.
56%
41%
27%
7%
40%
60%
55%
37%
80%
100%
Q10a/b/d/f. I would like to mention some general statements about Cabrillo College. Please tell me if you think each of the following
statements are accurate or inaccurate. ^Not Part of Split Sample
10
Seven in ten voters believe Cabrillo College
is in need of additional funding.
Generally speaking, would you say that Cabrillo College has a great need for additional
funding, some need, a little need or no real need for additional funding?
Great need
40%
Some need
30%
A little need
6%
No real need
7%
Great/Some
Need
70%
Little/No
Need
12%
DK/NA
18%
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
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Q4.
11
Most voters believe that at least some,
if not many, of the college’s buildings
are in need of repair.
Very Acc.
Smwt. Acc.
Some Cabrillo College buildings are in
need of repairs and modernization.
41%
Many Cabrillo College buildings are in
need of repairs and modernization.
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Smwt./Very Inacc.
33%
0%
20%
28%
24%
40%
13%
60%
Total
Acc.
DK/NA
70%
12% 19%
29%
80%
57%
100%
Q10c/e. I would like to mention some general statements about Cabrillo College. Please tell me if you think each of the following
statements are accurate or inaccurate. Split Sample
12
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Ballot Language Tested
CABRILLO COLLEGE TECHNOLOGY, JOB TRAINING AND CLASSROOM REPAIR
MEASURE. To better prepare students, veterans and workers for good jobs
and university transfer by:
•
•
•
•
•
Upgrading aging classrooms, technology/science labs;
Repairing outdated/deteriorating wiring, sewer lines;
Improving campus safety/security/handicapped accessibility;
Increasing water conservation/energy efficiency; and
Acquiring, constructing, repairing sites/facilities/equipment,
Shall Cabrillo College issue $310 million in bonds at legal rates, no money for
administrators' salaries/pensions, independent financial audits, and all funds
used locally?
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Q5. If the vote on this measure were held today, would you vote yes in favor, or no to oppose it?
14
More than three-quarters of voters say they
would vote ‘Yes’ on this ballot measure.
If the vote on this measure were held today, would you vote
yes in favor, or no to oppose it?
Definitely yes
46%
Probably yes
27%
Undecided, lean yes
5%
Undecided, lean no
2%
Probably no
4%
Definitely no
12%
Undecided
Total Yes
78%
Total No
18%
5%
0%
20%
40%
60%
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Q5.
15
Support for a potential bond measure
was broad and consistent.
Almost all demographic and geographic groups supported
this measure over the 70% vote threshold.
Those between 60% and 69% level of support:




Republican women
Households with only one Republican
Scotts Valley
Scotts Valley 18+
The groups that were below the 55% threshold are:




Republican men (50%)
Republicans over 50 (49%)
Men in Scotts Valley (52%)
Households with 2 or more Republicans (47%)
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16
Both likely June and likely November 2016
voters show strong support for the measure.
Likely June 2016 Voters
45%
Definitely yes
Probably yes
Undecided, lean yes
26%
5%
Undecided, lean no 1%
Probably no 5%
Definitely no
14%
Undecided
0%
Likely November 2016 Voters
46%
Total Yes
76%
27%
5%
2%
Total No
20%
15%
Total No
18%
4%
12%
4%
Total Yes
78%
5%
30%
45%
60%
75%
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
75%
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Q5. If the vote on this measure were held today, would you vote yes in favor, or no to oppose it?
17
Upgrades and renovation, the importance of education, and
need for money are the most common reasons for voting ‘yes.’
In a couple of words, please tell me why you would vote (YES/NO) on this
potential bond measure.
(3% and Above Responses Shown)
Reasons to Vote Yes
Need upgrade/renovation/Sewer
Education/School is important
Money is needed
16%
14%
11%
Support Cabrillo/community college
10%
Important to the community
Teacher/Alumni/Kids go there
Job training/Opportunities
General positive/Need it
Make improvements/Improve education
Good value/use of money
Benefit to the students/youth
Access to higher education
8%
7%
6%
6%
4%
3%
3%
3%
Reasons to Vote No
Have funds/Mismanagement
Taxes
Use money for other issues
Facilities are fine/Have already been
upgraded
Against bonds/debt
Too much money
Find other ways to pay for it
Don't trust where money is going
General negative/Not needed
Need more information
17%
14%
14%
7%
5%
5%
5%
5%
4%
3%
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Q6a & b. (Open-end)
18
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Voter prioritize preparing students for fouryear colleges and good-paying jobs.
I am going to read you a list of types of projects that could be funded or provisions that could be
funded in this measure. Please tell me how important it is to you that each project be
undertaken: extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not too important?
Ext./Very
Ext. Impt.
Very Impt.
Smwt. Impt.
Not Too Impt.
DK/NA
Impt.
Better preparing students and workers for
good-paying jobs
34%
46%
12%
Preparing students to transfer to four-year
colleges and universities
37%
43%
14%
Qualifying for state matching funds
34%
Repairing deteriorating gas, electrical and
sewer line systems
31%
44%
Improving water conservation efforts
33%
41%
15% 8%
74%
Replacing outdated electrical wiring
30%
44%
14% 7% 5%
74%
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Q11.
0%
20%
42%
40%
15%
81%
5%
80%
5%
75%
18%
60%
80%
76%
100%
20
Upgrading classrooms, labs, technology, and
handicapped accessibility are also important.
Ext. Impt.
Very Impt.
Smwt. Impt.
Not Too Impt.
DK/NA
Ext./Very
Impt.
Upgrading classrooms and labs for science,
technology, engineering, and math-related
fields
24%
48%
19%
Upgrading classroom technology
24%
47%
18% 7%
72%
18% 8%
71%
Improving handicapped accessibility
29%
42%
6%
73%
Requiring annual independent financial audits
23%
48%
21%
5%
71%
Make repairs to the aging plumbing system to
prevent flooding and water damage
22%
49%
19%
7%
71%
Improving and maintaining culinary arts,
welding, and other career education program
facilities
Creating a one-stop veterans’ center to
provide them with support programs and
educational resources
29%
25%
40%
45%
21%
5%
17% 11%
70%
70%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
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Q11. I am going to read you a list of types of projects that could be funded or provisions that could be funded in this measure. Please tell
me how important it is to you that each project be undertaken: extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not too
important?
21
Facilities for career counseling, classroom technology,
and energy efficiency are middle-tier priorities.
Ext. Impt.
Very Impt.
Smwt. Impt.
Not Too Impt.
Ext./Very
Impt.
DK/NA
Providing facilities for student support services,
such as tutoring and career counseling
26%
41%
24%
6%
68%
Modernizing classroom technology
25%
43%
22%
7%
67%
Making campus buildings more energy efficient
24%
42%
25%
7%
66%
Improving technology to support online
education
24%
42%
24%
7%
66%
Upgrading career and vocational classrooms
23%
41%
22%
9%
Improving and maintaining resources for
agricultural trades
20%
45%
20%
9%
Improving classrooms and labs for agricultural
and environmental science programs
22%
42%
24%
Replacing outdated internet wiring
22%
42%
21%
65%
5%
65%
7%
64%
11%
64%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
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Q11. I am going to read you a list of types of projects that could be funded or provisions that could be funded in this measure. Please tell
me how important it is to you that each project be undertaken: extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not too
important?
22
Prohibiting increases of administrators’ salaries is more
important than prohibiting spending the money on them
at all.
Ext./Very
Ext. Impt.
Very Impt.
Smwt. Impt.
Not Too Impt.
DK/NA
Impt.
Prohibiting money from being spent on
increases of administrators' salaries or
pensions
29%
34%
20%
13%
5%
63%
Providing facilities to improve agricultural
technology programs
18%
45%
24%
9%
63%
Repairing deteriorating heating, air
conditioning, and ventilation systems
18%
45%
26%
8%
63%
Improving emergency communications systems
21%
41%
Prohibiting money from being spent on
administrators' salaries or pensions
Improving campus safety and security
31%
23%
30%
37%
20%
11% 6% 62%
21%
13%
24%
12% 5% 60%
5%
61%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
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Q11. I am going to read you a list of types of projects that could be funded or provisions that could be funded in this measure. Please tell
me how important it is to you that each project be undertaken: extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not too
important?
23
The lowest voter priorities are building a conference
center, a physical education complex, and improving
signage.
Ext. Impt.
Very Impt.
Smwt. Impt.
Not Too Impt.
Ext./Very
Impt.
DK/NA
Renovating buildings to meet the latest
standards for environmental sustainability
18%
39%
25%
15%
Building new multi-use classrooms and labs
17%
40%
26%
11% 6% 57%
Replacing outdated classrooms
19%
37%
27%
15%
Converting athletic fields to artificial turf to use
less water and reduce maintenance costs
17%
25%
30%
21%
57%
55%
6%
43%
Building a conference center that can also be
used by the community
12%
24%
29%
32%
36%
Providing a campus physical education
complex
10%
26%
31%
29%
36%
Improving signage around campus
10%
19%
26%
35%
10% 29%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
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Q11. I am going to read you a list of types of projects that could be funded or provisions that could be funded in this measure. Please tell
me how important it is to you that each project be undertaken: extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not too
important?
24
Support was similarly strong –
and within the margin of error –
for lower bond amounts.
What if this bond measure were for ________________, instead of $310 million?
If that were the case, would you vote yes in favor of it, or no to oppose it?
Def. Yes
Prob./Undec., Lean Yes
Prob./Undec., Lean No
Def. No
Total
Yes
Total
No
5%
78%
18%
Undecided
$310 Million
46%
$255 Million
43%
31%
6%
13%
6%
74%
19%
$200 Million
44%
31%
6%
13%
7%
74%
19%
0%
20%
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Q5 & Q7.
32%
40%
60%
6%
80%
12%
100%
25
Voters showed no significant difference in
preference for different property taxes per
$100,000 in assessed property valuation per year.
Suppose the Cabrillo College Technology, Job Training and Classroom Repair Measure
resulted in a property tax of _______ per $100,000 of assessed property valuation per
year—which is based on the amount you paid for your house, not its current market value.
In that case, would you vote yes in favor of it, or no to oppose it?
Total Yes
Definitely Yes
Total No
$23.00
69%
23%
41%
$19.00
67%
25%
43%
$15.00
69%
24%
43%
75%
60%
45%
30%
15%
0%
15%
30%
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Q8. Split Sample
26
When presented with the property tax as a total
cost to the typical homeowner, voters show
strongest support for the lowest tax rate.
Suppose Cabrillo College Technology, Job Training and Classroom Repair
Measure resulted in a property tax of __________ for the typical homeowner.
In that case, would you vote yes in favor of it, or no to oppose it?
Total Yes
$128 per year
56%
$106 per year
34%
71%
90%
75%
60%
45%
30%
31%
40%
62%
$84 per year
Definitely Yes
Total No
33%
26%
15%
0%
15%
38%
30%
45%
60%
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Q9. Split Sample
27
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28
Support for the measure was consistently
strong after pro and con arguments.
Initial Support
After Positives
79%
Total Yes 78%
After Negatives
90%
78%
75%
60%
45%
Total No 18%
18%
20%
30%
15%
Undecided 5%
3%
3%
0%
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Q5, Q13 & Q15. If the vote on this measure were held today, would you vote yes in favor, or no to oppose it?
29
Positive Arguments
(AFFORDABLE) The cost to attend California’s public universities has risen to at least six times that
of attending a community college. As a result, more local students and their families rely on their
local community college to save tens of thousands of dollars. Passing this measure increases
opportunities for local students to earn college credits, certifications, and job skills at a reasonable
price and transfer to four-year colleges and universities.
^
(VETERANS) Cabrillo College has served thousands of military veterans, many of whom have
recently returned from war zones and face challenges including post-traumatic stress disorder and
permanent disability. This measure will upgrade and expand veteran services and job training so
returning Service Members receive the support they need to complete their education and enter
the civilian workforce.
(JOBS) Cabrillo College provides essential job training and workforce preparation for students of all
ages, veterans, and local residents. This measure will upgrade classrooms, facilities, and technology
and expand access to training programs that help students learn new skills and find better paying
jobs in business, technology, nursing, early childhood education, and other high-demand careers.
(PASS RATE) Cabrillo College students are among the highest performers in the state on Dental
Hygiene, Nursing, and Radiologic Technology National and State Certifications. To maintain its high
pass rates, Cabrillo needs to continue to educate its students with up-to-date technology. This
measure will ensure that students have access to the necessary resources to obtain certifications to
advance their careers.
(TRANSFERS) Cabrillo College provides excellent training that prepares students to successfully
transfer to UC schools – such as UC Santa Cruz – to complete their Bachelor’s degrees. Cabrillo has
one of the highest transfer rates in the state, with an 80% transfer rate to UCLA for its honors
scholars and a 90% transfer rate to UC Berkeley. This measure will ensure that Cabrillo can continue
to offer this caliber of education.
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Q12. I’m going to read some statements made by people in favor of the CABRILLO COLLEGE TECHNOLOGY, JOB TRAINING AND
CLASSROOM REPAIR MEASURE. Please tell me whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing as a reason
to support this measure. ^Not Part of Split Sample
30
Positive Arguments
(ACCOUNTABILITY WITH OVERSIGHT COMMITTEE) This bond measure includes strict accountability
requirements including a Citizens’ Bond Oversight Committee and independent annual financial and
performance audits to make sure all funds are used effectively, efficiently, and as promised.
Furthermore, all funds will be used locally.
(ACCOUNTABILITY WITHOUT OVERSIGHT COMMITTEE) This bond measure includes strict
accountability requirements including independent annual financial and performance audits to
make sure all funds are used effectively, efficiently, and as promised. Furthermore, all funds will be
used locally.
^
(REPAIRS) Many of Cabrillo’s buildings, classrooms, science labs, and job training equipment are
deteriorating and outdated. This measure will address urgent and basic repairs such as upgrading
electrical wiring, gas and sewer lines, fixing leaky roofs, repairing bathrooms, and replacing
outdated plumbing and wiring to make our local college clean and safe for learning.
(FOSTER YOUTH) Foster youth have the lowest college success rates of any population. This
measure will increase current and former foster youth student success rates of earning certificates,
associate degrees, and transferring to four-year colleges and universities by upgrading and
expanding Cabrillo College's Foster Youth Independence program to support their needs and
increase their success.
(SAFETY) This measure will help make Cabrillo College be a safer place for local students to learn.
Funds will be used to upgrade campus security and emergency communications systems, campus
lighting, signage, cameras, and door locks ensuing the safety and security of students.
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Q12. I’m going to read some statements made by people in favor of the CABRILLO COLLEGE TECHNOLOGY, JOB TRAINING AND
CLASSROOM REPAIR MEASURE. Please tell me whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing as a reason
to support this measure. ^Not Part of Split Sample
31
The most persuasive messages
relate to Cabrillo’s affordability, its
veteran services, and job training.
Very Conv.
Affordable
Smwt. Conv.
62%
24%
87%
^Veterans
55%
32%
88%
Jobs
54%
32%
87%
Pass Rate
53%
36%
Transfers
53%
31%
84%
Accountability With Oversight Committee
50%
34%
83%
Accountability Without Oversight Committee
48%
36%
84%
^Repairs
46%
36%
82%
Foster Youth
46%
36%
81%
Safety
41%
0%
20%
36%
40%
60%
88%
77%
80%
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Q12. I’m going to read some statements made by people in favor of the CABRILLO COLLEGE TECHNOLOGY, JOB TRAINING AND
CLASSROOM REPAIR MEASURE. Please tell me whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing as a reason
to support this measure. ^Not Part of Split Sample
100%
32
Both swing voters and those who initially
leaned yes found the affordability message
to be very compelling.
(Total Convincing)
All
Voters
Swing
Initial Probably/
Lean Yes
Veterans
88%
93%
95%
Pass Rate
88%
90%
93%
Affordable
87%
94%
98%
Jobs
87%
88%
92%
Transfers
84%
86%
91%
Accountability Without Oversight Committee
84%
91%
92%
Accountability With Oversight Committee
83%
87%
92%
Repairs
82%
88%
91%
Foster Youth
81%
87%
86%
Safety
77%
85%
85%
Messages
^
^
CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT. NOT FOR PUBLICATION. CA GOVT CODE 6254
Q12. I’m going to read some statements made by people in favor of the CABRILLO COLLEGE TECHNOLOGY, JOB TRAINING AND
CLASSROOM REPAIR MEASURE. Please tell me whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing as a reason
to support this measure. ^Not Part of Split Sample
33
Negative Arguments
(ADMIN SALARIES) District administrators need to tighten their belts by cutting outrageous
executive salaries and pensions. The District has enough money to pay for many of the proposed
projects if the Board just revises their priorities to put students first.
(TAXES) Taxes are too high already and all property owners are currently paying off two Cabrillo
College bonds on their property taxes. Additionally, this measure will actually cost taxpayers twice
as much to pay off with interest. I am simply not voting for anything that will increase my taxes.
(BROKEN PROMISES) Cabrillo College has a history of not delivering on past bond promises. The
College closed down “The Center” in North County and did not deliver facilities in Scotts Valley, as
promised. And the Watsonville area remains underserved. We cannot trust Cabrillo College with
our tax money again.
(ECONOMY) With continued high unemployment – particularly among local youth – flat wages, the
ongoing foreclosure crisis, and an overall unstable economy, we just can’t be expected to pay more
in taxes. Now is the wrong time for another bond measure.
(NO NEED) Cabrillo College campus and facilities are excellent and well-maintained. The campus is
full of modern and new buildings, enrollment is shrinking, and the course offerings have been
reduced. We do not need to raise taxes to spend more money improving existing or building new
community college facilities.
(LIFELONG LEARNERS) By not allowing lifelong learners to repeat courses, Cabrillo College is doing a
disservice to its community and excluding the aging and elderly from important education
opportunities. This bond will not benefit the community and will be wasted on offering programs
that are not in the scope of a community college.
CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT. NOT FOR PUBLICATION. CA GOVT CODE 6254
Q14. I’m going to read some statements made by those who oppose the CABRILLO COLLEGE TECHNOLOGY, JOB TRAINING AND
CLASSROOM REPAIR MEASURE. Please tell me whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing as a reason
to oppose this measure. Split Sample
34
The strongest negative messages pertained
to the perception of inflated administrator’s
salaries and high taxes.
Very Conv.
Admin Salaries
Smwt. Conv.
26%
Taxes
24%
Broken Promises
22%
16%
Economy
19%
No Need
18%
Lifelong Learners
12%
0%
56%
30%
46%
46%
30%
39%
19%
18%
21%
20%
36%
33%
40%
60%
CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT. NOT FOR PUBLICATION. CA GOVT CODE 6254
Q14. I’m going to read some statements made by those who oppose the CABRILLO COLLEGE TECHNOLOGY, JOB TRAINING AND
CLASSROOM REPAIR MEASURE. Please tell me whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing as a reason
to oppose this measure. Split Sample
35
Both swing voters and voters who initially leaned
yes were convinced by a message pointing to
inflated administrators’ salaries.
(Total Convincing)
Messages
All Voters
Swing
Initial Probably/
Lean Yes
Admin Salaries
56%
56%
54%
Taxes
46%
46%
44%
Broken Promises
46%
45%
44%
Economy
39%
33%
33%
No Need
36%
36%
37%
Lifelong Learners
33%
31%
28%
CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT. NOT FOR PUBLICATION. CA GOVT CODE 6254
Q14. I’m going to read some statements made by those who oppose the CABRILLO COLLEGE TECHNOLOGY, JOB TRAINING AND
CLASSROOM REPAIR MEASURE. Please tell me whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing as a reason
to oppose this measure. Split Sample
36
Independents and Republicans also took to the
administrators’ salary argument; Democrats
were less convinced overall.
(Total Convincing)
Party
All
Voters
Democrats
Independents
Republicans
Admin Salaries
56%
47%
67%
67%
Taxes
46%
41%
50%
55%
Broken Promises
46%
43%
48%
51%
Economy
39%
30%
47%
57%
No Need
36%
34%
37%
41%
Lifelong Learners
33%
30%
40%
35%
Messages
CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT. NOT FOR PUBLICATION. CA GOVT CODE 6254
Q14. I’m going to read some statements made by those who oppose the CABRILLO COLLEGE TECHNOLOGY, JOB TRAINING AND
CLASSROOM REPAIR MEASURE. Please tell me whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing as a reason
to oppose this measure. Split Sample
37
The same argument was compelling in the
entire county.
(Total Convincing)
City
Messages
All
Voters Santa Cruz
Capitola
Watsonville
Scotts
Valley
Uninc.
Uninc.
Santa Cruz San Benito/
Monterey
County
Admin Salaries
56%
48%
62%
61%
72%
58%
49%
Taxes
46%
46%
39%
48%
55%
44%
63%
Broken Promises
46%
45%
45%
55%
42%
44%
63%
Economy
39%
28%
40%
54%
53%
42%
15%
No Need
36%
32%
40%
39%
47%
34%
73%
Lifelong Learners
33%
26%
35%
36%
55%
34%
32%
CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT. NOT FOR PUBLICATION. CA GOVT CODE 6254
Q14. I’m going to read some statements made by those who oppose the CABRILLO COLLEGE TECHNOLOGY, JOB TRAINING AND
CLASSROOM REPAIR MEASURE. Please tell me whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing as a reason
to oppose this measure. Split Sample
38
Cabrillo College staff, professors,
alumni, and students are seen as the
most believable messengers.
I am going to read you a list of individuals and organizations that may provide information or take
a position on the proposed local Cabrillo College bond we have been discussing. Please tell me if
you would find that individual’s or organization's opinion on the topic to be very believable,
somewhat believable, not too believable, or not at all believable.
Very
Total Believable
Total Not Believable Believable
Cabrillo College students
8%
83%
43%
Cabrillo College professors and staff
9%
81%
42%
(CD 20 Only) Congressman Sam Farr
15%
72%
39%
Cabrillo College alumni
9%
72%
38%
^Santa Cruz County Board of Supervisors
19%
65%
22%
^Cabrillo College locally elected Board of Trustees
15%
21%
63%
(CD 18 Only) Congresswoman Anna Eshoo
17%
33%
61%
(AD 30 Only) State Assemblymember Luis Alejo
22%
23%
60%
Local pastors and clergy
20%
22%
58%
Your local mayor
19%
15%
56%
Your local chamber of commerce
22%
24%
55%
(AD 29 Only) State Assemblymember Mark Stone
20%
16%
48%
90%
75%
60%
45%
30%
15%
0%
15%
30%
CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT. NOT FOR PUBLICATION. CA GOVT CODE 6254
Q16.
39
CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT. NOT FOR PUBLICATION. CA GOVT CODE 6254
40
Conclusions and Recommendations
 The “Cabrillo College Technology, Job Training, and Classroom Repair”
measure is viable in either June or November 2016.
 76% of likely June 2016 voters say they would vote ‘yes’ and 78% of likely November
2016 would vote ‘yes’
 Voters display little price sensitivity to different bond amounts.
Cabrillo is integral to the Santa Cruz community.
 Voters have high levels of awareness and a strong personal connection to the college.
 They value it as an alternative to expensive four-year colleges, its high performance,
and the high quality academic and professional training it provides students
Voters prioritize spending on student and veteran job-training,
preparation for university transfer, repair of gas, electrical, and sewer
systems, and water conservation efforts.
The College should continue to emphasize its successes, the opportunities
it offers local students and veterans to connect with four-year college and
job training opportunities.
CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT. NOT FOR PUBLICATION. CA GOVT CODE 6254
41
For more information, contact:
John@FM3research.com
Curt@FM3research.com
Lucia@FM3research.com
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Los Angeles, CA 90025
Phone (310) 828-1183
Fax (310) 453-6562
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Phone (510) 451-9521
Fax (510) 451-0384
1999 Harrison St., Suite 2020
Oakland, CA 94612
Phone (510) 451-9521
Fax (510) 451-0384