Scottish Survey of Literacy and Numeracy
Support Materials
Ideas of chance and uncertainty: Third Level
Part 3
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Third Level: Ideas of Chance and Uncertainty
Experience and Outcome:
MNU 3-22a
I can find the probability of an event happening and explain why the consequences of the
event, as well as its probability, should be considered when making choices.
Learning Intention(s)
I will be able to make informed decisions by
considering the probability of favourable and
unfavourable outcomes and the element of risk
involved.
Success Criteria
I can use my calculations, along with other
information, to make informed choices
I can discuss how methods of collecting
information may affect the nature of the data
collected and the conclusion drawn
Key Vocabulary
Probability – The chance that an event may happen, which can be expressed in words an
given as a fraction, decimal fraction or a percentage.
Impossible event – An occurrence, happening or outcome which cannot happen.
Certain – Will definitely happen.
Favourable outcome – A desired happening or occurrence.
Unfavourable outcomes – An undesired happening or occurrence.
Possible outcome – Capable of occurring.
Bias – A tendency towards a particular outcome.
Random event – Something that happens by chance or without bias.
Learning and Teaching Ideas and possible contexts
1. Coloured Chips Game
This is a 2 player game where each pair needs a set of coloured chips identical in shape and
size but different in colour. Place 3 red chips in a bag, 5 green, 2 yellow and 1 blue. The
rules of the game are below:
Player 1: Pick a chip from the bag. Put the chip back in the bag. Then pick again.
Player 2: Pick a chip. Keep it out and then pick again.
When a player chooses two chips of the same colour he/she automatically scores a point.
Otherwise the player scores zero.
Set students the following tasks:
 Who do you predict will win the game?
 Do you think this is a fair game? Why or why not?
 Play the game. Each player should take 20 turns. Who won the game? Is that what you
expected?
 Calculate the probability that Player 1 wins the game.
 Calculate the probability that Player 2 wins the game.
 Based on your calculations do you think the game is fair? Would you do anything to change
the rules?
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*Reflective Questions
How would you guide a group/class discussion that would allow learners to  design a game which is fair, based on their understanding of probability?
 design a game which is unfair, based on their understanding of probability?
 provide real-life examples of fair or unfair situations?
2.
Spinner activity
Pupils will need to make their own spinner or can use an online spinner such as the one found
on the website below:
http://nlvm.usu.edu/en/nav/frames_asid_186_g_1_t_1.html?open=activities .
The task for the pupils is to divide and label the spinner using the colours red, green, orange,
yellow and purple so that the statements below are true.
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
The probability of spinning red is double the chance of spinning purple.
The probability of spinning yellow is half the chance of spinning orange.
There is a 25% chance of spinning orange.
The probability of spinning green is the same as spinning yellow.
The chance of spinning purple is the same as the probability of rolling a 6 with one roll of
one die.
Planning for progression/ Cross curricular contexts for Learning
*Reflective questions:
How can we relate the use probability to decide if something is fair or not to our everyday lives?
How does ‘ideas of chance and uncertainty’ contribute to the development of skills for learning,
life and work?
Reflecting on your curriculum plan, where do you see possible links with other curricular areas?
Learners can develop their understanding od sampling techniques and methods at
http:www.rgs.org
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