Scottish Survey of Literacy and Numeracy
Support Materials
Ideas of chance and uncertainty: Second Level
Part 4
http://www.educationscotland.gov.uk
Second Level: Ideas of Chance and Uncertainty
Experience and Outcome:
MNU 2-22
I can conduct simple experiments involving chance and communicate my predictions and
findings using the vocabulary of probability.
Learning Intention


I will begin to understand the use of
probability to determine risk.
Success Criteria

I can discuss real life uses of probability
and how the results are used to make
predictions.
I will become aware of how the
implications of chance are used in daily
routines, decision making and the
media.
Key Vocabulary:
Certain , impossible, likely, likelihood, unlikely, very unlikely, how likely, very likely, highly
unlikely, highly likely, chance, good chance, poor chance, evens, probability, scale, even chance,
fair, unfair, fifty –fifty, equal chance, percentage chance, one in two, two in three etc
Learning and Teaching Ideas and contexts
Race to the Finish – a fair game?
Each group needs a game board, a counter per person and two dice.
Pupils use the game board attached – see appendix 1, and each place a counter on their chosen
number. Pupils then take turns to throw both dice. If the total thrown matches their chosen
number they move their counter forward one space. The winner is the first person to reach the
finish line.
The game is repeated allowing pupils to change their number, explaining why they have chosen
this new number.
Pupils analyse which numbers are winning and why?
Following this discussion they can complete the ‘dice totals’ table (appendix 1) to evaluate the
number of combinations available for each total and adapt their conclusions.
Are the totals the same for all the combinations? Is this a fair game? How have you come to this
conclusion?
http://www2.whidbey.net/ohmsmath/webwork/javascript/diceroll.htm
(dice roll simulation)
http://www.transum.org/software/SW/SnailRace/
(interactive snail race)
Fair or Unfair?
Two players take turns to roll two dice, 25 times each.
Game 1
Find the sum of the two dice. Player A earns a point if the sum is a prime number
and
Player B earns a point if the sum is a square number? Is this fair or
unfair?
Game 2
Find the product of the two dice. Player A wins a point if the product is a multiple or
factor of 3 and Player B earns a point if the product is a multiple or factor of 4. Is this fair or
unfair?
How have you come to your conclusion? How can you change the rules to make it a fair game?
http://www.educationscotland.gov.uk
Games, looking at fair and unfair games:
http://nrich.maths.org/public/viewer.php?obj_id=2857
http://nrich.maths.org/public/viewer.php?obj_id=1176
http://www.bbc.co.uk/learningzone/clips/probability-of-winning-a-fairground-game/5038.html
( a video looking at the probability of winning on a fairground game)
Numeracy Across Learning
Investigations:
Pupils can carry out their own investigation, using the internet, to answer the following questions:
Insurance – How long are you likely to live?
The Environment – How is global warning affecting the weather on Earth?
Space Research – What is the chance of life on another planet?
Politics – Which party is likely to win the next election?
Earthquakes – How many will there be next year?
Gaming Machines – What is the chance of winning the jackpot?
Subject links : Science experiments / Geography and weather predictions/ technologies and risk
assessment/ Health and Wellbeing risk assessment – drugs, alcohol, sexual health education.
*Reflective questions:
Are pupils able to say when it is unclear whether something is fair or not and explain their
reasoning?
How can we explore this further?
How can we relate the use probability to decide if something is fair or not to our everyday lives?
http://www.educationscotland.gov.uk
Appendix 1:
Race to the Finish Line
Finish
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Start
Dice Totals
Dice One
Dice Two
2
Dice
Totals
1
2
3
4
5
6
1
2
3
4
5
6
Is this a fair game? Give an explanation for your answer.
http://www.educationscotland.gov.uk