1965-1969
1970-1974
1975-1979
1980-1984
1985-1989
1990-1994
1995-1999
2000-2004
2005-2009
linear model
nonlinear model
regulated
Martis Creek, CA
30
20
10
0
regulated
Clearwater River, ID
30
20
10
0
unregulated
Fir Creek, OR
30
20
10
0
unregulated
Elk Creek, OR
Frequency
30
20
10
0
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Residuals for the period 2005-2009 (°C)
Supplementary Figure 1. Distribution of residuals for both linear and non-linear models using
different time periods to predict warmer conditions (mean + 1 SD) for the period 2005-2009 in
two unregulated and two regulated streams.
1965-1969
1970-1974
1975-1979
1980-1984
1985-1989
1990-1994
1995-1999
2000-2004
2005-2009
linear model
nonlinear model
50
40
regulated
Martis Creek, CA
30
20
10
0
50
40
regulated
Clearwater River, ID
30
20
10
0
50
unregulated
Fir Creek, OR
40
30
20
10
0
50
unregulated
Elk Creek, OR
Frequency
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-5
0
5
10
-10
-5
0
5
10
Residuals for the period 2005-2009 (°C)
Supplementary Figure 2. Distribution of residuals for both linear and non-linear models using
different time periods to predict colder conditions (mean - 1 SD) for the period 2005-2009 in two
unregulated and two regulated streams.
Supplementary Table 1. Characteristics of regulated and unregulated streams (n = 25) and time series of daily mean stream
temperature examined in this study. Each year ends on Dec 31st. Sites selected as illustrative examples of long-term regulated and
unregulated streams are sites 1, 12, 14 and 19. NA = Information was not available
site
time
drainage
area
(km2)
102.9
series
water
regulation
yes
start
1973
end
2009
# of
years
36.5
NA
yes
1985
2009
24.3
1274.1
yes
1985
2009
24.2
25107.3
yes
1996
2009
14.0
2672.9
yes
1985
2009
24.4
site
1
ID
10339400
lat N
long W
Stream name
39.329 -120.118 Martis Creek, CA
2
11261100
37.248 -120.851 Salt Slough, CA
3
11262900
37.262 -120.907 Mud Slough, CA
4
11274550
37.432 -121.013 San Joaquin River, CA
5
11302500
37.777 -120.852 Stanislaus River, CA
6
12119000
47.483 -122.203 Cedar River, WA
448.4
yes
1992
2009
17.9
7
12147500
47.712 -121.789 NF Tolt River, WA
102.9
no
1995
2009
14.9
8
12147600
47.707 -121.600 SF Tolt River, WA
14.1
no
1994
2009
15.2
9
12148000
47.689 -121.713 SF Tolt River, WA
51.8
yes
1994
2009
16.0
10
12148300
47.697 -121.787 SF Tolt River Reg, WA
76.8
yes
1993
2009
16.0
11
12181000
48.534 -121.429 Skagit River, WA
3576.8
yes
1986
2009
23.8
12
13341050
46.500 -116.393 Clearwater River, ID
20665.1
yes
1964
2009
45.2
13
14138850
45.498 -122.012 Bull Run River, OR
124.5
yes
1977
2009
32.2
14
14138870
45.480 -122.026 Fir Creek, OR
14.0
no
1977
2009
32.2
15
14138900
45.494 -122.036 NF Bull Run River, OR
21.7
yes
1978
2009
31.3
16
14139800
45.445 -122.110 SF Bull Run River, OR
40.7
no
1978
2009
31.3
17
14207200
45.357 -122.684 Tualatin River, OR
NA
yes
1991
2009
18.7
18
14337600
42.655 -122.715 Rogue River, OR
2438.1
yes
1970
2009
39.4
19
14338000
42.679 -122.742 Elk Creek, OR
335.9
no
1973
2009
36.6
20
15261000
60.481 -149.881 Cooper Creek, AK
125.9
no
1998
2009
11.4
21
15295700
57.695 -153.162 Terror River, AK
79.5
no
1981
2009
28.1
22
15297610
55.178 -162.688 Russell Creek, AK
80.0
no
1996
2009
13.4
23 GSMACK
44.219
122.167 Mack Creek, OR
5.8
no
1987
2009
22.4
24
TSLOOK
44.225
122.122 Lookout Creek, OR
4.9
no
1979
2009
30.6
25
TSMCRA
44.256
122.168 McRae Creek, OR
5.9
no
1976
2009
33.4
Supplementary Table 2. Root mean square error (RMSE) values for both linear and non-linear models using different time periods to
predict colder and warmer conditions (mean ± 1 SD) for the period 2005-2009 in two unregulated and two regulated streams.
model
regulation
Site/time period
Martis Creek, CA
65-69
70-74
75-79
2.11
Clearwater River, ID
3.95
2.41
2.30
RMSE across time periods
80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 00-04
2.07
2.08
1.99
2.30
1.99
05-09
1.98
regulated
2.19
2.36
2.09
1.93
1.68
1.62
1.27
1.18
1.20
1.24
1.19
1.18
linear
Fir Creek, OR
unregulated
Elk Creek, OR
1.87
1.84
1.91
1.95
1.77
1.91
1.73
Martis Creek, CA
1.78
1.69
1.67
1.57
1.93
1.58
1.55
2.47
2.40
2.42
2.15
1.78
1.47
1.39
1.18
1.12
1.13
1.16
1.12
1.11
1.65
1.72
1.81
1.63
1.72
1.57
regulated
Clearwater River, ID
4.00
2.57
nonlinear
Fir Creek, OR
unregulated
Elk Creek, OR
1.71