Turning mobile growth into broadband success: Case
Study of Pakistan
Syed Ismail Shah, PhD
Chairman, Pakistan Telecommunication Authority
E-mail: ismail@pta.gov.pk
Evolution of Cellular Mobile Communication in Pakistan
2
Evolution of Cellular Mobile Communication in Pakistan
3
• Total Spectrum offered was 2 lots with the following
configuration:
• Total Spectrum 2X13.6MHz
• 2X4.8MHz in 900MHz band and 2X 8.8MHz in 1800MHz
band
• Existing Operators were to pay the same amount upon
expiry of license with spectrum normalization except for
Instaphone, who were only offered 2x7.38MHz in the 850
MHz band
Total Teledensity (Millions)
4
GSM Coverage
Data revenues
Data Revenues in the Telecoms
Sector
100
19.30%
Quarterly Shares of Data Revenue in Total Cellular Reve
25.0
25.00%
90
20.0
16.40%
70
15.80%
13.70%
60
50
20.00%
15.00%
12.40%
90
40
64.7
30
20
42.6
10.00%
72.2
24.1
Percentage
80
23.5
15.0
21.4
10.0
16.7
15.0
5.0
50.3
5.00%
10
0
0.00%
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
Rs. Billion
2012-13
2013-14
OctJan Apr - Jul - Sep OctDec-13 Mar-14 Jun 14
14
Dec-14
Percentage
• Revenue from data is now more than double what it was five years ago
• For cellular mobile segment, share of data revenue has crossed 24%
LDN Network Diagram
Fiber Backbone
LDN-T has developed its backbone
Network covering 78 cities.
Ring, Enhanced Ring, Mesh & Spur
network topologies have been used to
create backbone.
Entity
Fibre
Standard
Cable
Standard
Length
Cities
Covered
Topology
O&M
LDN-T
Mixture of G.655 & G.652
Direct Buried & Mixture of
24F & 48F
6900 Km approx.
78(4 Planned)
Mesh, Rings & Spurs
Internal (PMCL)
PTCL Fiber Footprint & Cross Border Links
PTCL(10,400KM) covering all major
cities of Pakistan
Wateen Fiber Footprint
China via Khunjrab
Wateen Long Haul Optical Fiber Cable Network
providing connectivity from Karachi to Torkham
Afghanistan via Torkham
Taxila
Peshawar
6000 + km, Nine Rings Redundancy going to 11
Rings
4649 Km Expansion under USF Projects
24 and 96 Core Fiber (Hybrid G652D and G655C)
163+ Sites for Add/Drop
via Chaman
4500 + Km Metro OFC in Afghanistan
50+ cities
Muslim Bagh Qila Saif Ullah
Quetta
Harnai
Dasht
Nowshera
Taftan
Dringer
D I Khan
Zoib Bhakkar
Layyah
Kot Addu
Qureshi Chowk
Johi
Hoshab
Sialkot
Lahore
Chiniot
Faisalabad
Jhang Gojra
T T Singh
Chichawatni
Khanewal
Multan
Muzaffargarh
Amirabad
Daulatpur
Nawan Wali Muhammad
Td.Adam
Dadu
Berani
Nawabshah
Jam Nawaz Ali
Kalri
Thano Bula Khan
Mirpur Khas
Jamshoro
Umer Kot
Nooriabad
Chachro
Judho
Thatta Hyderabad
Islamkot
Karachi
Jati
Tando Bhago
Gharo
Badin
Sujawal
Mirpur Sakro
Nagar Parkar
Chuhar
Ghora Bari
Jamali
Kati Bandar
Shah Bandar
Wagah
Raiwind
Kasur
Pattoki
Sahiwal
Okara
Pakpattan
Arifwala
Burewala
Vehari
Mailsi
Lodhran
Bahawalpur
Dera Murad Jamali
Fazilpur
Nokundi
Liaquatpur
AhmanwalMastung
Rojhan
Kharan
Jacobabad
Dalbadin
Surab
Khandkot
Rahim Yar Khan
Salimabad Basima
Shikarpur Dharki Sadiqabad
Khanpur
Mashkhel
Nag
Sukkur
Washuk
Nal
Larkana Ranipur
Sobhodero
Panjgoor
Kharian
Gujrat
Gujranwala
Sargodha
Mianwali
D G Khan
Nushki
Gujar Khan
Jhelum
Mandi
Bahauddin
Khushab
Karak
Sibbi
Chaghi
Murree
Islamabad
Ahmedbanda
Lora Lai
Duki
Abbotabad
Kohat
Bannu
Major
Metro Fiber
Cities
Mardan
India via Wagha
Karachi
Lahore
Quetta
Islamabad
Faisalabad
Sialkot
Gujranwala
Gujrat
Sahiwal
Sargodha
Multan
Jhelum
D. I. Khan
Peshawar
Sukkur
Hyderabad
Abbotabad
Rawalpindi
Bahawalpur
R.Y.Khan
Multinet - 5000 KM
Broadband Technology Penetration in Pakistan before 3G/4G
Broadband Subscribers Status
2,721,659
3,000,000
2101315
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,491,491
1,500,000
900,648
1,000,000
500,000
-
45,153
168,082
413,809
Broadband Technology Penetration in Pakistan before 3G/4G
12
The era of New Generation Mobile Services (3G & 4G
Mobile Broadband
13
Government
issued a Policy
Directive for
3G/4G auction
on 7th October
2013
Consultant was
contracted on
19th December
2013
Auction took
Place on 23rd
April 2014
through
Simultaneous
Multiple Round
Ascending
(SMRA)
NGMS Licenses
were awarded to
4 Mobile
Operators on
22nd May 2014
4 Mobile
operations
launched their
3G/4G services
during
September 2014
3G & 4G- Progress so far
14
3 Mobile operators launched 3G & 1 operator launched
3G & 4G services
The Auction generated USD 1.2 Billion for the
Government
Exponential growth of 3G & 4G subscribers- 12
Million subscribers ( as of March 2014)
Sudden surge in usage of Mobile Applications- Opening
up a new immense opportunity in the county
Exponential Monthly Growth in 3G/4G subscribers
15
Subscribers in millions
Outstanding growth in Mobile Broadband after spectrum auction
16
Extensive Data Usage on 3G Networks
17
3G shares
%
2G shares
%
8,000
Voice
3%
87%
7,000
Data
97%
13%
6,840
In Tera Bytes (TBs)
6,000
2G
3G
Total
4,982
5,000
3G
Launch
4,000
4,448
3,531
2,794
3,000
2,000
1,000
1,850
1,449
1,322
1,243
1,219
1,639
1,449
1,322
1,243
1,219
Jan-14
1,964
2,154
1,601
1,693
211 363
Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14
461
Jul-14
2,297
1,857
2,578
1,887
2,155
2,188 2,392
1,376
691
440
Aug-14 Sep-14
Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14
MBB comparison with other countries
(December 2014)
18
3G and 4G Coverage
Projected Broadband Growth in Pakistan
20
Forecast based on 3G/4G uptake
Broadband Subscribers in Million
70.0
Plum High Demand Forecast
60.0
Broadband subscribers to
cross 50 million by 2018
50.0
40.0
30.0
3G /4G
Spectrum
Auction
20.0
10.0
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Year ending on
June
Market (Revenue)
Market (Socio-Economic Development)
3G and 4G – an enabler for accelerated socio-economic
development through mobile broadband
23
CONNECTED
COMMUNITIES
INTERNET OF
THINGS
Increasing number of
connected devices per
person
M-COMMERCE
Doing business and make
payment from mobile
3G/4G
Next Generation
Mobile Services
INTERPERSONAL
COMMUNICATION
Communicate, play and share content
with friends from mobile
M-HEALTH
Medical advice in remote areas
M-EDUCATION
Education for all
M-AGRICULTURE
More than 60% of our population
live in rural areas, mainly
dependent on agriculture
ENTERTAINMENT
WOMEN
EMPOWERMENT
PERSONAL
ECOSYSTEM
Access and control of connected
devices remotely from mobile
Use of mobile as a portable TV
DIGITAL ME
Mobile carries digital access for
payment, transport etc
Economic Impact of Mobile Broadband
Direct Effect
Indirect Effect
• Economic activities
and new jobs
directly associated
with the deployment
of infrastructure,
and other
associated
economic activities
• i.e. jobs created for
construction works,
telecom engineers;
Retail and
consumer services
paid for the newly
generated income
• Improvements in
productivity and
efficiency through
faster and more
optimised
processes in agri,
education, health,
SMEs and other
sectors of the
economy.
• e.g. Optimization of
supply chain
Short term
Short to mid term
Induced
Effect
• Innovations and
new ideas diffuse
throughout society,
creating a
favourable
environment for
new services and
business models
• e.g. Advanced
online services,
new utility services
Mid to long term
Additional GDP due to 3G and 4G services
International evidence / estimates
The World Bank estimates show that a
10 percent increase in mobile
broadband penetration drives a 1.4
percent increase in GDP for low-tomiddle income countries.
(The World Bank and ITU)
A 10 percent point increase in
broadband connections penetration
leads to 0.92% increase in GDP in
developing countries.
(GSMA)
Additional GDP during 2014-2020
Estimated Rs. 1,200 Billion
addition expected in GDP due
to 3G and 4G services in
Pakistan during 2014-20.
Direct, indirect and induced economic
effects
Short-term and medium to long-run
effects
Source: PTA , World Bank, GSMA, Plum Report 2013
GDP growth translates into Job Creation
International estimates
Addition of 1,000 new broadband
connections results in the creation of 33
new jobs (Direct, Indirect and Induced
jobs in industries that make use of
broadband networks)
GSMA
The recent GSMA Report on Digital
Inclusion and Mobile Sector Taxation in
Pakistan shows that for every new job
created in Pakistan’s Mobile sector, 11
are generated in the wider economy
GSMA Deloitte
Additional Job Creation:
Expected 1 to 1.5 million
employment generation
during 2014-2020.
For every percentage point increase in
broadband penetration, employment
would increase by 0.2 to 0.3
percentage points per year.
Planning Commission and GSMA
Source: PTA , GSMA, World Bank, Planning Commission and Plum Report 2013
27
Thank You!