More a Symptom than a Cause: Polarization
and Partisan News Media in America!
Kevin Arceneaux!
Temple University!
Martin Johnson!
University of California–Riverside!
!
1.2
.5
.4
0
.6
.8
1
Elite Partisan Polarization
Mass Partisan Polarization
.1
.2
.3
.4
1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Year
Abortion
President Evaluation
Source: Poole and Rosenthal!
Economic Issues
House of Representatives
1.2
.5
.4
0
.6
.8
1
Elite Partisan Polarization
Mass Partisan Polarization
.1
.2
.3
.4
1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Year
Abortion
President Evaluation
Economic Issues
House of Representatives
Source: Poole and Rosenthal; American National Election Studies!
1.2
.5
.4
0
.6
.8
1
Elite Partisan Polarization
Mass Partisan Polarization
.1
.2
.3
.4
1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Year
Abortion
President Evaluation
Economic Issues
House of Representatives
Source: Poole and Rosenthal; American National Election Studies!
1.2
.5
.4
0
.6
.8
1
Elite Partisan Polarization
Mass Partisan Polarization
.1
.2
.3
.4
1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Year
Abortion
President Evaluation
Economic Issues
House of Representatives
Source: Poole and Rosenthal; American National Election Studies!
What about the emergence of
partisan news media?!
!
!
Elite Direct Effects Indirect Effects Mass What about the emergence of
partisan news media?!
!
!
Elite Direct Effects Poli1cians view news content as indica1on of public opinion (Herbst 1998; Edwards & Wood 1999) Indirect Effects Mass What about the emergence of
partisan news media?!
!
!
Elite Mass Direct Effects Poli1cians view news content as indica1on of public opinion (Herbst 1998; Edwards & Wood 1999) Exposure to likeminded and opposi1onal news shows can polarize (Stroud 2011; Arceneaux & Johnson 2013) Indirect Effects What about the emergence of
partisan news media?!
!
!
Elite Mass Direct Effects Poli1cians view news content as indica1on of public opinion (Herbst 1998; Edwards & Wood 1999) Exposure to likeminded and opposi1onal news shows can polarize (Stroud 2011; Arceneaux & Johnson 2013) Indirect Effects Par1san news may also ac1vate par1sans to contact poli1cians (Levendusky 2013) What about the emergence of
partisan news media?!
!
!
Elite Mass Direct Effects Poli1cians view news content as indica1on of public opinion (Herbst 1998; Edwards & Wood 1999) Exposure to likeminded and opposi1onal news shows can polarize (Stroud 2011; Arceneaux & Johnson 2013) Indirect Effects Par1san news may also ac1vate par1sans to contact poli1cians (Levendusky 2013) Par1san news may spread through discussant networks (Siegel 2013) 1.2
.5
.4
0
.6
.8
1
Elite Partisan Polarization
Mass Partisan Polarization
.1
.2
.3
.4
Fox News!
1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Year
Abortion
President Evaluation
Economic Issues
House of Representatives
1.2
.5
.6
.8
1
Elite Partisan Polarization
Timing isn’t quite right for
hypothesis that partisan
media are the source of
elite polarization!
.4
0
Mass Partisan Polarization
.1
.2
.3
.4
Fox News!
1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Year
Abortion
President Evaluation
Economic Issues
House of Representatives
And… Fox News had a depolarizing effect in the beginning! Arceneaux, Johnson, Lindstädt, & Vander Wielen 2013!
1.2
.5
.4
0
.6
.8
1
Elite Partisan Polarization
Mass Partisan Polarization
.1
.2
.3
.4
Fox News!
1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Year
Abortion
President Evaluation
Economic Issues
House of Representatives
.4
0
.6
.8
1
Elite Partisan Polarization
1.2
.5
Mass Partisan Polarization
.1
.2
.3
.4
Fox News!
MSNBC
shifts left!
1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Year
Abortion
President Evaluation
Economic Issues
House of Representatives
1.2
.6
.8
1
Elite Partisan Polarization
.5
Fox News!
MSNBC
shifts left!
.4
0
Mass Partisan Polarization
.1
.2
.3
.4
Emergence of partisan media doesn’t
line up with polarization on abortion,
but could account for partisan
polarization on economic issues and
evaluations of the president.!
1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Year
Abortion
President Evaluation
Economic Issues
House of Representatives
140 Average Number of Channels per Household!
120 Emergence of partisan
news media did not occur
in a vacuum!
100 80 60 40 20 0 1960!
1965!
1970!
1975!
1980!
1985!
1990!
1995!
2000!
2005!
2010!
1
.9
0
.1
Proportion of News Seekers
.2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8
More entertainment
options = Fewer news
viewers (Prior 2007)!
1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Year
Source: American National Election Studies!
.7
0
Mass Partisan Polarization
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
With the exception of
abortion, news-seekers
polarized at a sharper rate
than entertainmentseekers after 1996!
1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Year
News Seeker Abortion
News Seeker Economic
News Seeker President
Entertainment Seeker Abortion
Entertainment Seeker Economic
Entertainment Seeker President
.7
But… this measure
doesn’t isolate partisan
news exposure!
0
Mass Partisan Polarization
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
With the exception of
abortion, news-seekers
polarized at a sharper rate
than entertainmentseekers after 1996!
1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Year
News Seeker Abortion
News Seeker Economic
News Seeker President
Entertainment Seeker Abortion
Entertainment Seeker Economic
Entertainment Seeker President
.7
But… this measure
doesn’t isolate partisan
news exposure!
And… this pattern could
reflect selection bias!
0
Mass Partisan Polarization
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
With the exception of
abortion, news-seekers
polarized at a sharper rate
than entertainmentseekers after 1996!
1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Year
News Seeker Abortion
News Seeker Economic
News Seeker President
Entertainment Seeker Abortion
Entertainment Seeker Economic
Entertainment Seeker President
Exposed to News!
Prefer News!
Exposed to
Entertainment!
Pretest Instrument!
Posttest Instrument!
Exposed to News!
Prefer Entertainment!
Exposed to
Entertainment!
Participant Preference Experiment!
1!
0.8!
0.6!
Treatment – Control!
0.4!
0.2!
0!
Mainstream News!
Proattitudinal!
-0.2!
Counterattitudinal!
-0.4!
-0.6!
-0.8!
-1!
Full Sample!
Mainstream Newsseeker!
Partisan News-seeker! Entertainment-seeker!
Pre-Test Viewing Preferences!
1. Partisan news has stronger
effects on entertainment-seekers!
!
1!
0.8!
0.6!
Treatment – Control!
0.4!
0.2!
0!
Mainstream News!
Proattitudinal!
-0.2!
Counterattitudinal!
-0.4!
-0.6!
-0.8!
-1!
Full Sample!
Mainstream Newsseeker!
Partisan News-seeker! Entertainment-seeker!
Pre-Test Viewing Preferences!
1. Partisan news has stronger
effects on entertainment-seekers!
!
2. Mainstream news can polarize,
too!!
1!
0.8!
0.6!
Treatment – Control!
0.4!
0.2!
0!
Mainstream News!
Proattitudinal!
-0.2!
Counterattitudinal!
-0.4!
-0.6!
-0.8!
-1!
Full Sample!
Mainstream Newsseeker!
Partisan News-seeker! Entertainment-seeker!
Pre-Test Viewing Preferences!
Ideological Content!
Ideological Content!
vs.!
Partisan Cues!
Sorting out Content vs. Cues!
Sorting out Content vs. Cues!
!
1.  Participant Preference Design!
Sorting out Content vs. Cues!
!
1.  Participant Preference Design!
2.  Provide people with countersterotypical cues !
Sorting out Content vs. Cues!
!
1.  Participant Preference Design!
2.  Provide people with countersterotypical cues !
3.  Vary source: likeminded news vs. co-partisan!
Sorting out Content vs. Cues!
!
1.  Participant Preference Design!
2.  Provide people with countersterotypical cues !
3.  Vary source: likeminded news vs. co-partisan!
Issue Liberals ConservaAves Gun Control Wai1ng periods and registries won’t stop criminals Wai1ng periods and registries help law enforcement Death Penalty Heinous crimes deserve ul1mately punishment Recent mistakes require moratorium Bank Regula1on Regula1on hamstrings community banks Regula1on needed to so banks don’t become too big to fail Federalism Devolu1on empowers the people Federal government needs to take charge to stop unfunded mandates 6
3
Mean Polarization Level
4
5
Gun Control
Death Penalty
Banking
Control
Media Source
Federalism
Pooled Analysis
Party Source
6
3
Mean Polarization Level
4
5
Mainstream News
Control
Partisan News
Media Preference
Media Source
Entertainment
Party Source
Concluding Thoughts!
Concluding Thoughts!
1.  The emergence of partisan news media seems more of
a symptom of elite polarization than a source.!
Concluding Thoughts!
1.  The emergence of partisan news media seems more of
a symptom of elite polarization than a source.!
2.  Both mainstream and partisan news media may play a
role in mass partisan polarization!
Concluding Thoughts!
1.  The emergence of partisan news media seems more of
a symptom of elite polarization than a source.!
2.  Both mainstream and partisan news media may play a
role in mass partisan polarization!
3.  If partisan elites moved to the center, the electorate
would likely follow!