Chile and Democracy Promotion SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL SERVICE Client: The National Endowment for Democracy Spring 2016 Professor Sally Shelton-Colby Rachel Aoughsten, Emily Artalejo, Peter Glover, Hannah LeMoyne, Amy Newell, Isabelle Rodas, Gigi Singh, Marty Stadtner, and Natasha Wheatley Executive Summary This report evaluates the democracy assistance activities of the National Endowment for Democracy in Chile during the 1980s. Chile was a successful case of democratic transition, in part due to the assistance of the NED and there are lessons from its assistance, both positive and negative, that should be incorporated into future democracy assistance activities. Our research identifies the critical pre-conditions for democratic success that were present in Chile, namely: a loss of legitimacy of the current government, a unified opposition, and institutional capacity to sustain democracy after a transition. These pre-conditions need to be present in future scenarios in order for various types of democracy assistance to be effective on the ground. The report analyzed five distinct areas of assistance: Voter Registration, Election Monitoring, Media, Conferences & Think Tanks, and Post-Junta Institutions. Each of these areas was critical to support to ensure the success of the Chilean plebiscite and the return of democracy to Chile. Each category relied on the success of one or more of the other areas of activity for its own success and a multidimensional approach to democracy assistance is necessary for international actors to be helpful contributors to an internal movement towards democracy. Voter registration success depended on the assurance of an open process provided by election monitoring activities; post-Junta institutions were developed and successful because of the discussions that occurred in conferences and the activities done within think tanks. We recommend that the NED should continue to provide assistance in all five of the identified areas and ensure that their support strategy uses a multidimensional approach. That said, not all activities within areas were equally successful and this report finds that there is room for increased efficiency and efficacy within each of the areas of democracy assistance. There are also three additional recommendations not aligned with any of the assistance areas which could improve the democracy assistance provided by NED: the need to support women’s organizations, the role of support to political parties, and the importance of improving institutional capacity after a democratic election. In Chile, other actors were providing support to political parties and the country already had strong institutional capacity from before the Pinochet regime, however Chile represents a unique case, compared to other democratic assistance efforts in other locations, and the NED needs to be aware of the potential need for them to provide that type of assistance. Women were active in leadership roles around human rights abuses in Chile, made up the bulk of the volunteer base, and contributed to the new democratic government. All of this was accomplished without any international attention or support. Had there been support for these activities, it is likely their accomplishments would have been even greater. Anytime women are taking an active role in some portion of their fight for democracy, NED should offer assistance and focus attention toward these activities. In summary, this report finds that the democracy assistant programs of NED played a critical role in Chile’s democratic transition, and that despite the contextual nature of transitions, many lessons can be learned from Chile. Table of Contents INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................. 2 LITERATURE REVIEW ..................................................................................................................................... 3 Critical Junctures and Critical Actors ............................................................................................................ 4 The 1980 Constitution............................................................................................................................... 5 The 1982 Financial Crisis ........................................................................................................................... 5 US Policy Shift ........................................................................................................................................... 5 The 1988 Plebiscite ................................................................................................................................... 6 Critical Actors ............................................................................................................................................ 6 Political Parties and Coalitions .................................................................................................................. 6 The Church ................................................................................................................................................ 6 Exiles ......................................................................................................................................................... 7 Military ...................................................................................................................................................... 8 Other International Actors ........................................................................................................................ 8 METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................................................ 9 PROGRAMMING .......................................................................................................................................... 10 REGISTRATION & GET-OUT-THE-VOTE SUPPORT.................................................................................. 10 Media ...................................................................................................................................................... 12 “NO” CAMPAIGN..................................................................................................................................... 13 MAGAZINES/NEWSPAPERS/PAMPHLETS................................................................................................ 14 RADIO ...................................................................................................................................................... 14 TV ............................................................................................................................................................ 14 OP-EDS AND MEDIA COVERAGE BY NED, NDI AND OTHERS .................................................................. 15 ELECTION MONITORING ......................................................................................................................... 16 NDI .......................................................................................................................................................... 16 INTERNATIONAL OBSERVER DELEGATION .............................................................................................. 16 QUICK COUNTS ....................................................................................................................................... 17 CONFERENCES & THINK TANKS............................................................................................................... 17 BEFORE THE PLEBISCITE .......................................................................................................................... 18 POST-PLEBISCITE ..................................................................................................................................... 19 POST-JUNTA SUPPORT ............................................................................................................................ 19 ADDITIONAL RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................................................ 21 Women’s Groups .................................................................................................................................... 21 Fund the Political Middle ........................................................................................................................ 22 Support Institutional Capacity ................................................................................................................ 23 CONCLUSION .............................................................................................................................................. 24 References ..................................................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. APPENDIX A ................................................................................................................................................... 25 Appendix B .................................................................................................................................................. 26 APPENDIX C ................................................................................................................................................... 27 APPENDIX D................................................................................................................................................. 28 INTRODUCTION “Democracy is more than elections” Heraldo Muñoz Dictatorships and authoritarian governments do not merely decide to transition to democracy. Holding an election does not mean democracy has come to a people. The people under a government have to call for change, demand a democracy. They must organize around the cause of democracy, they must publicize their struggle to receive the support of international communities, they must build the institutions and civil society necessary for a healthy democracy, and they must strategize how to achieve their goals. All of these things must be accomplished for an election to matter. Otherwise, there will be no election or an election will bring no change. Successful, peaceful democratic transitions are rare. It has been argued that they are too rare to extrapolate their experiences to other states. However, it is precisely because of their rarity that they must be analyzed, and understood, so that the characteristics that made these states successful can be identified. Chile is an exceptional case of a successful democratic transition. In the 1980s, with the financial and technical support of multiple international actors, including the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), Chileans were able to successfully mobilize. Chileans built real institutions, held open dialogue, and held their government accountable for a free and fair plebiscite on the future of the Chilean government. From an external standpoint, international actors must evaluate their contributions to determine what was successful, what was not, why these actions did or did not have impact, and which strategies and actions should be implemented in future cases of assisted democratic transition. If NED wants to learn from Chile’s transition to democracy, it needs to evaluate which of its programs in Chile contributed to the country's successful democratic transition and why. To this end, this report consists of a review of the relevant literature, an overview of the critical junctures and critical actors in Chile’s transition, an analysis of NED’s programing in Chile, and a series of program specific and more general recommendations. We broadly seek to analyze the role played by NED in Chile’s transition by conveying the voices of key Chilean actors to NED. LITERATURE REVIEW Looking at structural models of democratization, Chile under Pinochet’s rule had all, or at least many, of the factors that contribute to democratic transitions. Proponents of the conditional model of modernization analyze economic factors to assess the likelihood of democratization in a country. The wealthier a country is, the less likely institutional changes will occur, however once institutional changes are made, the wealthier a country is, the more likely to democratize. Scholars have defined institutional change as “a product of the ability and the interests of groups in overturning the system. For an actor to push for democratization, they must have the opportunity and the means to overturn the current institutions, and must also have the motive to support a democratic outcome.”[i] They identify three levels of economic development, low, medium, and high, that each have their own implications regarding both the ability to overturn the institutions and the likelihood that democratic changes will result from that overturning. At low levels of economic development, the ability of the state to maintain control is weak, due to the lack of resources that it has at its disposal. This creates a very unstable situation for the country as overturning the government becomes relatively easy. After a transition occurs, there is not enough interest among the populace to push for political rights because the next regime will be about as predatory as the last, as they have very little property to defend in the first place. When a country is a little more economically developed, and reaches the classification of “medium” under this model, the state’s capacity is increased allowing it greater leeway in dealing with problems. This increased capacity makes it more difficult for opposition to achieve institutional change; however, if institutional change is achieved, the new government will need to broaden its share of responsibilities and powers due to the greater resources and number of people and groups needed to achieve the change. At high levels of development, the state’s resources are numerous and pervasive; overturning the ruling government in these cases proves to be a very difficult and costly task as a great many people within the country are invested in the current institutions. If, however, institutional change were to occur, the change would likely result in democratization due to the diverse interests of numerous powerful individuals and groups. Michael Miller’s study on the relationship between economic development and violent leader removal comes to a conclusion that reinforces the Conditional Model. His theory is that “democratization is most likely to follow from a confluence of two factors: pro-democratic citizens and a vulnerable autocratic regime.”[ii] Therefore, the antecedent economic conditions for democratic development must be in place so that when autocratic regime to be vulnerable, perhaps through the death of a leader, an economic crisis, natural disaster, or war, the people in an authoritarian country can demand change to democratic institutions. In response to the arguments in favor of either endogenous or conditional democratization, there is the claim that economic factors have less to do with the establishment of democracy but everything to do with the sustainability of a democratic government once established. The logic of the argument is that newly democratized states that have not reached a medium to high level of economic development will not have the ability to implement reforms necessary for pleasing the majority of the populace. In these instances, instability and poor infrastructure will contribute to these new democracies to simply revert back to authoritarian control. Furthermore, the marginal benefits that would-be dictators can accumulate are greater in low income countries than in richer ones. While the Pinochet regime was highly capable of suppressing dissent, applying these theoretical models to Chile reveals that the country under Pinochet, which could be characterized as having medium to high economic development, was likely to have a democratic transition. Furthermore, due to this level of economic development, a transition to democracy would be sustainable because the winning coalition could allocate resources in a way that saw to the needs of the populace at large. Levitsky and Way bring the international community back into democratization theories when they write about competitive authoritarianism. They emphasize that when liberal democracies have linkage—strong economic, political, diplomatic, social, and organizational ties— with rather than leverage over a transitioning country, the liberal democracies can play a positive role in the transition. In the case of Chile, the US had strong linkages with Chile, and thus had the opportunity to make a strong and effective push for a truly democratic transition. Critical Junctures and Critical Actors In this section, we review critical junctures and critical actors in Chile’s democratic transition. These junctures and actors are referred to throughout the report and bear highlighting. Critical junctures include the drafting and ratification of the 1980 constitution; the 1982 financial crisis; the shift in US policy towards Chile, culminating in the 1987 appropriation of $1,000,000 for democracy assistance in Chile; and the 1988 plebiscite. Each juncture represents a moment at which a major decision that a key role in shaping Chile’s transition. While by no means exhaustive, this list highlights the junctures which received the most attention from interviewees and the literature. The 1980 Constitution Following the 1973 coup, Pinochet ruled Chile for sixteen years. Responding to internal pressure for institutional legitimacy and external pressure for his repressive rule, Pinochet designed a new constitution and held a yes/no referendum on the constitution in 1980.1 Under accusations of fraud and unfair practices, 68.5% Chileans voted for the new constitution.2 The new constitution concentrated power in the executive branch, formally shifted the government from a military to a civil government, set up the National Security Council, and crucially set up another plebiscite for 1988, in which Chileans would vote on whether to continue under Pinochet’s government or to hold an election open to political parties. The 1982 Financial Crisis In 1982, after years of economic prosperity under Pinochet, Chile suffered a deep economic crisis. Spurred by a new fixed exchange rate regime and increasing consumer debt, the crisis caused Chile’s GDP to contract by 14% and unemployment to rise to 19.6% in 1982.3 Pinochet’s legitimacy depended on economic prosperity, and so the 1982 financial crisis struck a severe blow to the regime. Unemployment and unrest pushed Pinochet to undo some of his repressive policies: loosening his exile policy, lowering the level of press censorship, and—with the coaxing of Archbishop Santiago Juan Francisco Fresno—began a tentative dialogue with moderate sections of the opposition.4 The financial crisis ultimately shook the legitimacy of Pinochet’s regime and gave the opposition the space essential for any concerted political action. US Policy Shift US government officials, including President Ronald Reagan and Secretary of State George Shultz, changed their policy towards Chile and encouraged the formation of a truly democratic regime. Shultz and his Assistant Secretary for Inter-American Affairs, Elliott Abrams, pioneered this change in policy because they viewed Pinochet’s oppressive regime to be empowering, rather than containing, the communists of South America.5 The policies of the US were important in shaping the structural conditions for Chile due to the immense size of the bilateral relationship between the two countries; the US at the time was Chile’s largest trade partner, consuming 26% of the country’s exports and providing 21% of its imports. Ambassador Harry Barnes’s attendance at the funeral of Rodrigo Rojas, a Chilean dissident, was emblematic of this change in policy. Up until this point, Chileans viewed the US as either pro-Pinochet or, at best, neutral. Amb. Barnes’s arrival in Chile represented the marked shift in US policy toward Chile, to one more focused on supporting human rights, strengthening an open economic system, and encouraging a return to democracy.6 The 1988 Plebiscite The institutional avenue for opposition created by the mandate for the 1988 plebiscite, the rise in unrest and the opening of political space caused by the 1982 financial crisis, and the shift of US policy towards Chile, all contributed to making the plebiscite the best opportunity for the opposition to unite to overthrow Pinochet. The 1988 plebiscite was the catalyst of the opposition and the Chilean people to amalgamate and say “No!” Critical Actors Moving from critical junctures to critical actors, we focus political parties and coalitions, the Catholic Church, exile communities, the military, and international actors outside of the US. Our analysis focuses on organizations, rather than individuals, as the unit of measurement because running through a list of critical individual Chileans would leave us with no room to report on the programming itself. Political Parties and Coalitions There were numerous groups within Chilean society that favored a transition to democratic governance. When given the opportunity that structural factors inside and outside Chile afforded them, they had the chance they needed to act. Chief among these were the many political parties that, while not agreeing with each other, mostly agreed that democratic changes needed to occur. Although the Pinochet regime curtailed the activities of political parties, many parties continued gathering in secret meetings in Chile, and more open meetings abroad. Maintaining these networks during the years leading up to the plebiscite was crucial to the creation of the organization critical to the mobilization the opposition. Of these parties, several of them formed the Democratic Alliance in 1983, a nonCommunist coalition focused on the return to democratic governance, the restoration of civil liberties, and the end of the Pinochet regime’s human rights violations. The Democratic Alliance contained the political parties of the Socialist Party-Briones to the Liberal Party on the spectrum, and it contained 40-50% of the Chilean electorate. The signing of the National Accord in 1985 expanded the coalition. The base grew to encompass 70-75% of the electorate, spanning from the Christian Left to the National Union Party on the right. Leading up to the plebiscite itself, another coalition, the Concertación, was formed. In addition to the parties that formed the Democratic Alliance and those that signed the National Accord, the Movement for United Popular Action and the recently formed Greens Party, Humanist Party, and Party for Democracy joined. This left only the parties of the extreme Left, who were mostly revolutionaries, and extreme Right, who were mostly supporters of the regime, outside of this broad coalition. The Church Since the start of Pinochet’s rule, segments of the Catholic Church provided social services, protection against human rights abuses, and a safe space for many Chileans.7 As early as 1976, Church leaders in the region began coordinating the various political parties and encouraging a united opposition against Pinochet. They hosted several meetings outside Chile to foster this unity. This opposition to the regime from the Church was embodied in Cardinal Juan Francisco Fresno.8 Chile, which was about 90% Roman Catholic, was very susceptible to influence from this institution. While the Church, as an institution, took no formal stance on the Pinochet government, its support for the activities of the prodemocracy coalitions was vital to the survival of opposition political parties and for their initial coalition building efforts.9 Exiles Due to the repressive nature of the Pinochet regime, many Chilean nationals lived outside the country, harbored by governments sympathetic to their plight. These political exiles were not inactive during their years as expatriates, but rather supported efforts to reshape conditions within Chile. The exiles’ experiences abroad, mostly in countries with democratic regimes, gave them the opportunity to learn how things worked under democratic governance and to influence international actors to supporting their cause. Estimates on the number of Chilean exiles range from 200,000 to almost 1,800,000.10 The range in estimates is so large because no strong data on Chilean exiles exist. Llambias-Wolff estimates that 47% of the exiles ended up in other Latin American countries, while 40% were in Western Europe, and only 1.3% were in the United States.11 The exile community played a major role in Chile’s democratic transition in three key ways. First, the exile community was a factor in the shift of US policy towards Chile. Elliott Abrams and his former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South America Robert Gelbard both asserted that meeting with Chilean exiles helped to solidify Secretary Shultz’s conviction that Chile needed democracy.12 According to Assistant Secretary Gelbard, Secretary Shultz pushed President Reagan into shifting policies by attesting to the fact that there were many impassioned moderate Chileans standing between Pinochet and communism in Chile.13 Speaking with Chileans hosted by other countries, many verified that as exiles they were able to influence their host governments’ policies toward Chile as well. Second, living in exile afforded Chileans political space that was not available in Chile itself. Given this space, exiled Chileans not only reached out to host governments, but also built networks with local political parties, businesses, universities, and other Chilean exiles.14 They founded think tanks, such as Chile Democratico in Rome and Stockholm and the Instituto para el Nuevo Chile in Rotterdam. With this space, exiled Chileans were able to keep Chile’s political parties and pluralism alive and well, despite high levels of political repression in Chile. The exile community was the strongest political front against Pinochet, especially prior to political opening caused by the 1982 financial crisis.15 Finally, experiences from living in exile, especially in Europe, helped to transform the Chilean Left. In the late 1970’s and 1980’s, Europe itself was going through a political transformation as Leftist political parties increasingly became disenchanted with the Soviet Union and shifted to an embrace of social democracy. This transformation influenced the Chilean exiles living in Europe: Chilean communists living in East Germany became jaded towards ideological extremes and Leftists in West Germany, Sweden, Spain, and Italy moved closer to the center as well.16 As exiles coordinated with people still in Chile and eventually returned to the country, the transformation of the Left towards greater moderation made the unification of the opposition more likely.17 In sum, the exile community helped shift international policy towards Chile, created space for political activities no longer viable in Chile, and acted as an incubator for the transformation of Chile’s Left. Military Despite the fact that Chile was under military rule, there were divergences within the military leadership of the country. Most notably, of the four-man junta, General Fernando Matthei, the Chief of the Chilean Air Force, expressed “grave concerns” about the direction that Chile was going under military rule.18 Gen. Matthei maintained communication with United States embassy officials and supported the US efforts to transition to civilian rule.19 This became of much greater consequence, after the plebiscite had been conducted, in influencing the military regime to transfer power peacefully. Other International Actors Among non-US international actors, Germany played the largest role, with most of their support for democracy assistance coming in the form of programming supportive of the Chilean Christian Democrat party. The German federal government supplied money earmarked for overseas democracy assistance to German foundations unofficially associated with German political parties.20 Little data on the exact nature and size of these contributions is publically available; however, based on what is available, German foundations provided $26.05 million USD of political funding to Chile from 1984 to 1988.21 Of this, about $24 million USD was supplied by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, which was associated with the Christian Democratic Union.22 The relationship between the German and the Chilean Christian Democrat parties dates back to the 1950’s, with funding for democracy education starting in 1962.23 These programs consisted of trainings, courses, seminars, publications, university funding, think tank funding, unions, business organizations, and cooperatives.24 Many of these programs continued after the 1973 coup, although many of the materials were subject to heavy censorship.25 Other, smaller sources of international democracy assistance came from Canada, Sweden, France, and the Netherlands. Canada provided funding through the International Development Research Center (IDRC) and the Canadian International Development Agency, which focused on economic and public policy research.26 Funding from Sweden was supplied by the Swedish International Development Agency (SIDA), the Swedish Agency for Research Cooperation with Developing Countries (SAREC), and unions.27 The Netherlands redirected funding allocated for assistance to the Chilean government through Oxfam to support the opposition.28 Finally, the French government provided relatively low levels of funding to think tanks.29 METHODOLOGY This programming assessment is a qualitative analysis based on series of interviews with leaders and regular participants in the opposition to Pinochet’s regime leading up to, and including, the 1988 plebiscite. The infrequency of data collection in democracy promotion during that time means that a quantitative analysis would have an inconclusive result at best. Additionally, the unique circumstances in Chile mean that there is no real baseline comparison for quantitative data. These interviews seek to understand what NED programming meant to those working towards a democratic Chile. Information taken from these interviews was used to determine the most important parts of NED’s contribution as well as areas where more attention could be given in future situations. Semi-structured interviews were conducted between January 20, 2016 and April 9, 2016. These interviews all focused on the work done in Chile during the 1980’s and perceptions of current attitudes, as well as questions regarding a hindsight evaluation of successes and failures during that period. Questions were typically geared toward the individual’s specific area of knowledge or role in Chilean politics during Pinochet’s rule. A list of questions asked is available in Appendix A. These interviews were conducted through several different means: by phone, in-person, and via Skype. Between March 4, 2016 and March 11, 2016, six members of our team were on location in Santiago, Chile to conduct interviews with Chilean opposition leaders. To protect from bias, interviews were conducted across a large cross-section of actors including those who at the time were NED and National Democratic Institute (NDI) staff, senior Reagan administration officials, leaders of the Chilean opposition, and other Chileans activists. A cross-section of opinions was also maintained by ensuring interviewees came from a variety of different backgrounds: retirees, current NED staff, Chilean government officials, academics, American government officials and staff from other relevant non-profits were all represented. A complete list of interviews is available in Appendix B. Due to the large time gap between actual program execution in Chile and the time of this assessment, many actors were no longer able to be interviewed due to death or the lack of contact information. This assessment also relies on a thorough review of documents regarding NED activities in Chile during that time period that were available at the US Library of Congress and NDI’s independent archives. These documents provided details on programs and program funding that were addressed in interviews regarding interviewees’ experiences and attitudes toward the various areas of NED activities. PROGRAMMING The analysis and assessment breaks NED assistance in Chile into five categories: Registration & Get-out-the-Vote Efforts, Election Monitoring, Media, Conferences & Think Tanks, and Post-Junta Institutional Support. Each of these categories played some role in a successful democratic transition. This assessment provides an overview of the activity in each of those programmatic categories, followed by an analysis of its strengths, weaknesses, and overall contribution. Recommendations regarding future activity in these categories immediately follow the analysis. REGISTRATION & GET-OUT-THE-VOTE SUPPORT Overview After the Pinochet government announced the plebiscite, the opposition began to register Chileans to vote. Immediately after the coup, the military burned all the voter register cards so there were zero registered voters in Chile when the plebiscite was announced. It was determined that the opposition would need to register seven million people in less than a year and a half in order to win the vote. A large voter registration and outreach effort incorporated several different groups from the right and left of Chilean politics. Programs funded through the NDI, by NED, included (in US Dollars): over $110,000 to the Movement for Free Elections, $47,000 on technical seminars on voter registration and electoral processes, $515,000 to the FLACSO & the Committee of Personalities, and $275,000 to urge citizens to register to vote through various outreach efforts. Additional programs funded by NED were $106,000 to Central Democratic Workers. In many cases, citizens were averse to registering out of fear of the government. The belief that the government was omnipresent permeated Chilean society. Elites and the middle class worried about physical violence, arrest, etc. while poorer communities believed that the government would pull its assistance if it found out they were registering to vote. NED funded several different programs in order to fight back against this fear through educational materials, organizing local meetings, and training volunteers to speak to other citizens. These programs were typically intertwined in voter registration programs and their funding was linked. There was a fee for registering to vote in the plebiscite which presented a significant barrier to voting for low-income citizens. To alleviate this barrier to voting, the NED funded a program which subsidized the costs by providing the required ID photographs for those with financial need. Although this did not cover the registration costs, it did reduce the overall cost to voting by eliminating the need to pay for photographs. The program was funded through the Center for Youth Development in the amount of $26,000. It provided for approximately 200,000 photographs throughout the life of the program. NED also spent $154,000 funding a failed attempt to pressure the government into open elections instead of a plebiscite and to train an independent election monitoring system. Analysis Voter registration in Chile was incredibly successful. In a limited amount of time, Chilean activists were able to register seven million voters throughout the country.30 NED’s funding of these programs allowed organizations to purchase the necessary materials, publicize and frame a message, support travel for trainers, and provide technical assistance. Without funding from NED, the reach of these programs would have been significantly diminished and it is possible that a large part of the country would have remained unregistered. That outcome would have affected the Chilean democracy movement in two ways: 1) democratic participation would have been out-of-reach to a larger portion of the country, and 2) low participation would have affected the legitimacy of the outcome of the plebiscite. A key element to the success of these programs was the existence of grassroots groups in Chile ready and independently preparing to take on these challenges that the international donors like NED could support: 35,000 volunteers were involved at the grassroots level in registering, educating, and supporting voters. A naturally developed organization can be successful by using outside funding in a way in which synthetically created groups funded by outside interests cannot. First, a synthetic program would not have had the same legitimacy with voters and second, a synthetic program would not have had as wide of a reach without the support provided by volunteer labor which would not have been present. The programs and support designed to combat registration fear work in tandem with the registration program itself. Registration efforts would not have been successful if volunteers had not also been trained and prepared to address fear. The success of these programs was helped along by several other key contributors, namely: the positivity of the “No” Campaign’s media advertisements, the implementation of an election monitoring and a parallel vote count, and the success of volunteer recruitment to the tune of 35,000 volunteers.31 The wide reach enabled by trained volunteers meant that voters could feel that the positive message being distributed nationally could be verified by a local source, and the promise of an election monitoring system separate from the official government oversight helped reassure voters that voting would not be corrupted nor their information tracked. The program to pay registration fees had limited reach. The number of people who were able to take advantage of the assistance was minimal compared to the number of people in need and it could not even cover the complete costs of registering but was only a subsidy. Many of the recipients of free photographs may still not have had the funds to pay the registration fee and it is unclear how many people who received the subsidized photographs actually registered in time for the 1988 plebiscite. The $154,000 grant yielded mixed results. The campaign for open elections failed, however, the independent election monitoring system became a critical tool for the successful democratic transition Recommendations The massive voter operation in Chile was a great success. NED should continue to support voter registration efforts as part of democracy promotion activities in three ways: 1) by providing financial support for administrative, promotional, and educational activities as well as for logistical needs of groups performing registration activities, 2) by offering technical assistance to train leaders and grassroots volunteers who would be completing the fieldwork, and 3) by providing space for different groups to coordinate efforts and avoid overlap and inefficiency. These types of support can only be provided when there are existing organizations (formal or informal) present, which are capable of engaging in public outreach. It is preferable to diversify support to several organizations in order to both increase the capacity and scope of activities, in addition to continuing to maintain NED’s image as politically neutral and non-corrupt. In places like Chile, where democracy was absent for a generation and human rights abuses were rampant, efforts to “protect (citizens) from their own fear”32 must be a key element of any successful voter registration program and subsequent election. Any outreach program designed to engage the public in the push for democracy must include messaging and volunteer training that mitigates the power of fear citizens have of the repercussions of challenging the existing power structures and highlights the progress that could be made by active participation in democracy efforts. NED should encourage any partners to incorporate plans to address this challenge in their efforts. It is recommended that plans to counter fear be incorporated as a criterion for grant proposals to NED. The program to subsidize registration costs had limited reach. The number of people able to take advantage of the assistance was small and made little impact on the results. This does not take away from the importance of removing barriers to voting to poorer communities; however, if a program like this is going to be impactful rather than simply symbolic, it needs to be launched on a larger scale according to the number of people in need and the sources of financial roadblocks to voting. In areas where there is no registration fee, this type of assistance should be refocused on transportation support to get voters to polling locations. Media Overview Freedom of speech implies freedom of press and media and the allowance of underrepresented voices to be heard. A true democracy is a country well informed and allowed access to consume and then comment on information provided without censorship. As part of the campaign to create an environment for a fair plebiscite, NED supported Chileans in creating an atmosphere that allowed for an informed voter population. To create this environment, NED supported different programs such as, creating opposition press, pamphlets, advertisements, radio, and NED op-eds and articles. The importance of the media was twofold: firstly, media was utilized to encourage people to register and vote, while the second campaign was to get people to vote “No.” The media’s role in inspiring registration came in the form of advertisement campaigns, pamphlets, radio spots, and television advertisements. The campaign focused on getting voters to both register and vote. With 8.2 million eligible voters and only a quarter of them registered to vote, the need to inspire the disillusioned population proved to be a daunting task. The media played a second role in the plebiscite, which was represented by the “No” campaign. This campaign assisted the opposition to create advertising spots that would stand up to the Pinochet government’s “Yes” campaign, which could balance the scales, and thus create a morefair election. While fortunate to have assistance from organizations like the NED, the opposition still faced barriers such as government oversight on the content of the advertisements and restricted air time. Analysis NED incorporated a media assistance campaign into their support to the opposition. This campaign developed two main goals, firstly to get voters to register and secondly to boost the “No” campaign’s efforts against the advantage of the government. This assistance focused on maximizing the utilization of all forms of media. The two goals of the campaign were simultaneously implemented through different forms of media. The forms used to get voters to register were press, radio, and television, while the primary source of media for the “No” campaign was through television advertisements. “NO” CAMPAIGN Leading up to the “No” campaign and prior to the involvement of NED, Gabriel Valdés, a prominent leader in the Christian Democratic Party, and other opposition leaders were encouraged to think strongly about pushing for a fair election and using the plebiscite as a platform to begin to roll in democracy. This encouragement led to the meeting of Valdés and George Soros.33 This meeting culminated in Soros’ donating money to the campaign for preliminary polling that sought target audiences for the campaign. This particular type of targeted polling encouraged campaign managers to focus on the youth and men, and less on older women who had children and might fear going up against the dictatorship. Leading up to the vote, NED and key actors in the media/publicity field united to join the campaign. These players created one of the best advertisement campaigns that not only was a great campaign, but also defeated the odds. The campaign overcame media censorship, restrictions on civil and political freedoms, and having to go against human nature by getting people to vote “No.” MAGAZINES/NEWSPAPERS/PAMPHLETS In an attempt to create a more-fair environment for the “No” campaign, NED supported the creation of press outlets like opposition newspapers, magazines, and pamphlets. To do this, funding and support was given for the creation of opposition magazines which served to create a press with many viewpoints.34 The media, until that point, was controlled by right-wing organizations, which supported the Pinochet regime. Therefore, only favorable opinions and views of the dictatorship were represented in the main media outlets. With the help of NED, a more well-rounded news coverage began to emerge. While these outlets were open for the opposition to use and for the campaigning for a free election, there was still government oversight on these outlets. While the ability to create press/news was there, it had to go through the scrutiny of the regime before being published.35 Consequently, much of what was written was presented as non-partisan. The NED also assisted in creating citizen manuals and publishing books through Editorial Andante. Examples of these books are “Conversaciones con el Comandante” Miguel Castellanos in 1986. “Manual del ciudadano: Los partidos políticos chilenos,” by Abraham Santibanez, in 1988 and “Sindicalismo y democracia,” by E. M. Beauchemin in 1987. RADIO Radio served to encourage voter registration by reaching a wide audience,36 particularly Chileans with an otherwise limited access to media, specifically people of lower social classes, with lower literacy rates, and in rural areas. This brought a voice of hope and encouragement to the voter registration campaign and introduced the idea that there was an inkling of change happening. TV TV was crucial in the “No” campaign. The opposition was given 27 spots over the course of two months, 15 minutes a day at 11:45 p.m. each night to play an advertisement that would promote the campaign for the “No.”37 The TV blitz convinced many wavering Chileans that the “No” was legitimate and acceptable. This campaign was integral in planting the seed for people throughout Chile to know that not only was there an opposition group but also an option that was not the dictatorship.38 These advertisements also inspired hope in the population by showing a new progressive Chile. The television advertisements gave the impression that an opposition was mobilizing and that the campaign was in fact legitimate.39 This legitimization created a sense of security and camaraderie among voters. The heavyhanded imagery of the “Yes” was being combatted by the “rainbow’s symbolism of joyous pluralism of the ‘No’” which also led to the success of the campaign.40 Another key to the opposition's success was its disciplined unity. Ironically, the plebiscite structure helped cohere an incredibly diverse and fragile coalition around the one thing on which they totally agreed: No to Pinochet and his regime. There was very tight coordination on every official speech, strategy, tactic, and contingency plan. OP-EDS AND MEDIA COVERAGE BY NED, NDI AND OTHERS Media was not only used within the country by Chileans, it was also used abroad and by international players and Chileans in exile. It was also used in Chile by international players. This was done in the form of interviews, articles, op-eds, and journal. Leading up to the plebiscite, articles began to pour out of outlets like the New York Times, Christian Science Monitor, and the Washington Post. This was very important, as we heard in many interviews, in letting the Chilean people know that the US and international players were involved in the plebiscite, it was being watched, and there was strong international support in promoting a clean and fair election. It also suggested that there was international presence in Chile observing the plebiscite. Many influential Chileans, like Arturo Valenzuela, published articles informing international actors of the plight of the Chileans. This not only showed that international media was interested in the story but that it was also being read and observed by people in other countries. Recommendations When introducing a media campaign to promote democracy, it is important to address three key points. First, create an environment of opposition unity through the media that gives a presence of strength, courage, hope, and ability. Second, use public relations and media professionals to create messaging. Third, show strong support, vigilance, and oversight by international players. The campaign for the “No” as well as the voter registration campaign was so successful because, not only did it display political unity among parties, but it also focused on a singular mission. NED were critical in unifying the parties as mentioned in other sections, but this unity was displayed through the one voice that the campaign suggested, a single unified Chile free of the Pinochet dictatorship. The strength of a single message permeated through all media outlets. Both campaigns were composed of strong players, where professionals were brought in to design and create the advertisements vis-a-vis focus groups which were utilized to concentrate the advertisements’ message toward a particular, key audience. This degree of professionalism was displayed through the clear concise campaign. The NED was critical in building support and introducing the right players for the team. The strong media presence overseas and by international players, through the publication of interviews, op-eds, and articles not only spotlighted the issue within Chile, but also gave Chileans a sense of security knowing that they were not alone in the battle. The importance of this form of media is crucial in showing solidarity and giving a sense of unity that is greater than the individual. Though the opposition had won the right to a plebiscite, rather than another eight-year continuation of the Pinochet regime, and had already successfully registered seven million voters who were obligated to vote in the plebiscite, the opposition still faced the challenge of preventing potential election fraud on the part of Pinochet’s government. The opposition was convinced that their only hope in winning the plebiscite would be to create a “foolproof” way to count the votes.41 and logistics of election observer delegations, but also to demonstrate a successful international example. In July of that same year, the NDI mission visited Chile to analyze the voter registration procedures and assess the capacity and needs of the free election campaign. In 1988 NDI funded the development of an electronic system to allow for independent vote counting operations, and commissioned a national public opinion survey. From August 17-24, 1989, eight representatives visited Chile to prepare for the international observer delegations, where NDI officially informed the government that they would hold an observer delegation, prepare logistics, and meet with leaders of the “Yes” and “No” campaigns. These meetings with both campaigns were crucial in emphasizing that NDI’s goal in the observer delegations was to hold a free and fair plebiscite. Analysis INTERNATIONAL OBSERVER DELEGATION ELECTION MONITORING Overview The NED granted the NDI $91,933 dollars for its election observer delegation to the October 1988 presidential plebiscite. Additionally, the NED granted Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales (FLACSO) and Centro de Estudios del Desarrollo (CED) a $154,000 grant for a two-part project in training an independent election monitoring system, in addition to support for public opinion polling. NDI Analysis In May 1987, four Chileans attended the NDI observer delegation to the Philippine legislative elections. This initial effort was especially significant in not only giving Chileans experience with the process On October 5, 1988 the International Observer Delegation consisting of fifty-five individuals from 22 countries observed the Chilean presidential plebiscite. The delegates were present in more than 15 Chilean cities, visited 150 polling sites on plebiscite day and observed the electoral process at 12 percent of the polling sites. Delegates were either “selected because of prestige, credibility and expertise” or chosen on the basis of exposing members from certain countries to democratic developments.42 The international members represented a range of political ideologies, and the US component was bipartisan. Delegates were prepared with NDI training and a book of reference tailored to specific missions. Ten teams left Santiago for other provincial capitals around the country where their purpose was to inform Chileans that observers were present, give information about the local campaign, and identify polling places; they also sometimes met with local media to explain the objective of the delegation. This visibility was crucial, because it went beyond pressuring the government to give the electorate confidence in a form of voting free from corruption, in the plebiscite. QUICK COUNTS In addition to the parallel voting count, NDI worked with the NED-funded Committee for Free Elections to create “quick counts” of the vote through a sample of the population. The quick count process was developed prior to voting day in conjunction with the government, in publicly choosing numbers at random to decide from which “mesas” the sample of votes would be collected from. The quick count estimates, intended to identify the overall trend by recording approximately ten percent of the vote, were actually quite accurate in predicting the final result. The quick counts were crucial in the case of Chile, because according to Chilean law, official results are not announced until at least 10 days after the plebiscite and the National Electoral Service would not announce the semi-official results from the scrutinizing boards until between three to six days after the plebiscite. Tabulating the quick counts kept the electorate informed and decreased the opportunity for election fraud on the part of Pinochet’s government. Election observer delegations are one of NED’s most effective contributions to the democratic transition in Chile. Because of the assistance provided by NED, NDI was able to successfully provide the technical capacity for quick count votes through the NDI observer delegation. The transparency reflected by their ability to explain their connections and previous contribution to the opposition, helped to bolster their legitimacy as an honest and fair election monitoring delegation among concurrent election monitoring mechanisms from both the “Yes” and “No” campaigns. Recommendations The role of the NDI observer delegations in Chile was twofold: (1) to provide technical assistance and capacity for the parallel vote and quick counts, and (2) to exert pressure on the government to run a completely fair plebiscite. The international community was “watching” Chile, and NDI’s presence in the country prior to and during the plebiscite showed the government and the people of Chile that nothing less of a free and open plebiscite would be tolerated. Future observer elections should make conscious, concerted efforts to travel beyond the capital into the more rural and remote areas of a country, in order to become visible to as many voters as possible. CONFERENCES & THINK TANKS “The Concertación changed the course of history for Chile: it knew how to interpret the national culture and consolidated a political mind-set in favor of gradual reforms.” -Sergio Bitar “Analyzing the situation together enabled us to reduce prejudices and build trust.” Patricio Aylwin Overview In the years leading up to the plebiscite, Chile’s political parties built a strong and enduring coalition. The Group of 24 began as a meeting of academics of different political backgrounds to plan for a new constitution and map out what the new democracy should look like. By forming a coalition founded on constitutional reform, the Group of 24 was able to overcome the distrust of the past and build mutual respect via its successful ability to overlook ideological differences and focusing on conditions that would support human dignity.43 Subsequently, political alliances emerged through the Civic Assembly and then the Democratic Alliance, which ultimately became the Concertación. They insistently advocated replacing the plebiscite with open elections, but the government would only allow for a plebiscite. International ideological support was crucial in the opposition’s decision to accept the plebiscite; it gave them the leverage to reinforce that if the minimal conditions of a fair plebiscite were not met, Chile and the international community would denounce it as fraudulent.44 The plebiscite consolidated and unified the Concertación toward 20 years of unity that may not have been reached otherwise in a precocious, competitive election. Think tanks and conferences funded by NED, also helped to support the unity of the Concertación both before and after the plebiscite. Analysis Think tanks and academic conferences were particularly important in the case of Chile because they allowed intellectuals to teach and influence the decisions of opposition leaders.45 The academic setting of these seminars also helped to build a bridge between the experiences of exiles and of those who remained in Chile. In addition to creating the space to keep the democratic opposition afloat, support for foreign democratic groups was considered essential in keeping the democratic opposition unified, rather than fragmented.46 BEFORE THE PLEBISCITE NDI began its activity with Chile in 1985. NED hosted the “Democracy in South America” conference in Washington, D.C. Chilean political party leaders and their Latin American counterparts attended with the intention to discuss practical strategies regarding the democratic transition. Through this conference NED articulated their programmatic objectives, which included: supporting the creation of Latin American foundations to strengthen private volunteer organizations, increasing contact between US foundations and existing Latin American foundations, strengthening communication among varying sectors in Latin America, increasing dialogue with the military sector in Latin America, and increase direct grants to Latin American organizations rather than intermediary US-based ones. In May 1986, the NDI, the Acción Democratica, and the Socialist Christian Party of Venezuela hosted an international conference in Caracas, “Transition to Democracy: Chile.” The conference took place when the National Accord was undermined by anti-government violence in Chile and by a potential schism due to a divergence in tactics between members.47 Twelve representatives of different Chilean parties were present, in addition to international democrats from Argentina, the Philippines, Spain, Uruguay, the US, and Venezuela. Representatives of new democracies shared common experiences on the transition process with Chilean counterparts. The conference is credited with providing support for the National Accord signatories during a potentially divisive period. Testimonies from Chilean party leaders indicated that the conference served as a space to lay out the concerns of the opposition, which included: open universities, freedom of press and expression, accepting cooperation but rejecting intervention from international community, the importance of unity among parties post-dictatorship to avoid violence, plan for the post-junta armed forces, and that the problems among Chilean parties must be solved by the Chilean people themselves.48 POST-PLEBISCITE While many international think tanks have been credited with “liberalizing the democratic transition,” the think tanks funded by the NED were also able to strengthen the center after the plebiscite, and moderate hardliners on both the conservative and liberal ends. The joint project, administered by Georgetown University, encouraged discussion between foreign and Chilean democratic activists by partnering with two think tanks: the liberal Facultad Latinoamerica de Ciencias Sociales (FLACSO) and the conservative Centro de Estudios Publicos (CEP). Recommendations Think tanks and conferences helped to build bridges between academics and party leaders in Chile. NED’s efforts provided a platform for the Chilean opposition to invigorate its vision and increase coherence prior to and following the plebiscite. The NED should continue to fund and support think tanks and host conferences among countries facing democratic transition, in order to promote engagement and consistent opportunities for coalition-building among those who represent, and otherwise influence, citizens. However, it should be noted that the Concertación had already been formed before the NED had yet established a true influence in the country. NED programs worked because political parties were already collaborating to end the Pinochet regime. NED’s work bolstered this coalition by supporting it during periods of violence and when it diverged on tactics. Supporting conferences or seminars is futile without commitment and organization of dissidents themselves. In addition to sponsoring conferences before democratic transition, NED can continue to support and fund dissidents’ attendance at conferences held by universities and other academic institutions. POST-JUNTA SUPPORT Overview After the opposition victory in 1988 and the Concertación candidate Patricio Aylwin’s inauguration in 1990, Pinochet still remained a fixture in the Chilean government under the privileges granted in the 1980 Chilean Constitution. He would remain the Commander in Chief of the Army for the next ten years, and his senatorfor-life position gave him immunity from prosecution. He maintained support from loyal senators and fused himself with the military so that attacks on him would be considered attacks on the institution itself. The national government of Chile still had authoritarian influence, and the NED continued its democracy assistance through the support of local and municipal institutions. Analysis The year between the plebiscite of 1988 and the presidential and parliamentary elections of December 1989 was an awkward time for the transition. Most of the focus had been on the plebiscite and people were not poised to focus on institutions. Even as newly-elected President Patricio Aylwin’s presidency began, the citizenry had to adjust to the new, post-authoritarian democracy after 17 years of military rule. During the 1989 election year, NED funded Participa through Delphi International, which held forums and seminars for political party commissions to develop platforms on the role of social policy in the democratic process. From 1989-1993 the NED contributed $386,000 to the Free Trade Union Institute to fund Chilean trade unions. The grants were crucial in teaching workers the techniques of political participation in the new pluralist system and the practical implications of legal reform on unions. The programs were effective in supporting the democratic labor movement secure a place in the Chilean government and to benefit from the economy. The funding of Instituto Libertad strengthened the municipal government. Though Chilean elections were now free, 1,500 of the 2,000 newly elected officials in 1992 did not have any type of governance training. Instituto Libertad conducted training courses with workshops on the role of municipal government and community building, offered technical courses on administration and finance, and advised local government officials. The Institute helped to strengthen the effectiveness of municipal government, which remains essential for a democratic government to function. The NED also funded political party training through the International Republican Institute (formerly the National Republican Institute) to promote strong parties, which are necessary for a functioning pluralist system. From 19901991 the IRI trained center and center-right parties on communications, organization, membership recruitment, and member development. Through NED funding, NDI returned with another observer delegation to the December 1989 elections to continue to deter misconduct by the government and to utilize Chile as an example for others in transitioning countries. Through the NDI, the Committee of Free Elections conducted conferences, seminars, and forums for citizens and political leaders to debate on the legislative, administrative, electoral, and constitutional reforms prior to the elections. Post-plebiscite public polling was particularly significant in its ability to increase the accountability of politicians in addressing the concerns of the electorate. NDI was also significant in reforming local government through its partnership with IRI. They sponsored consultations for local government experts from the US, Europe, and Latin America to meet with Chilean legislators to develop reforms, including one to establish elections for mayor and city councilmembers. The partnership also supported Participa’s seminar on women’s political leadership where female leaders from Chile, and other countries, met to discuss the techniques to successfully participate in local government. Through its programs, the NED and NDI assisted Chileans in the return to democratic processes and institutions in a way that increased the strength of citizens’ voices and their role in the government. Recommendations The Concertación’s and President Aylwin’s decision to honor the post-regime institutional framework once they were in power was necessary to lay the groundwork for the transition to democracy. Rather than battling the national institutional framework set by the 1980 Constitution, the NED focused on strengthening political parties and reforming municipal institutions to reflect democratic processes, which was appropriate in the context of Chile. NED should continue to support efforts that inform the electorate, increase workers’ and women’s participation, and strengthen democratic institutions at a local level. ADDITIONAL RECOMMENDATIONS Women’s Groups During the Chilean plebiscite, women were an active part of the movement and comprised the majority of the grassroots foot-soldier volunteers for both the opposition and independent pro-democracy groups.49 Women’s groups were also the lead drivers of the movement for human rights and awareness during the years leading up to the plebiscite, frequently drawing attention to the disappearances of key political figures and assassinations by the Chilean government. Furthermore, several women’s groups were instrumental in developing language and policy during that time that would become important elements of the new democratic government. For example, the National Service for Women in Chile was a concept developed by women’s groups in the mid-1980s during the Pinochet regime and implemented by the new government as the result of successful lobbying efforts from those same groups.50 Despite the incredible magnitude of the contributions made by women and women’s groups to a successful democratic transitions, women, women’s groups, and women’s issues received little funding or attention from the international community including NED. These groups would lose momentum and power within a few years after the transition due to a lack of strong fundraising ability and burnout from activists. Chile is not unique in terms of the role female citizens played in its democratic transition. In neighboring Argentina, women and women’s groups had a very similar structure of involvement, starting with addressing human rights in the wake of government abuses and moving to building greater involvement from women in politics and the mass mobilization of women was a decisive factor in the success of Argentina’s democratic movement.51 In Indonesia, women worked in conjunction with Muslim groups as active partners in democracy education, election monitoring, and strengthening religious freedom which resulted in a successful campaign to incorporate democratic values into Indonesian society.52 Mongolian women’s groups have been funded by foreign donors as part of a larger strategy for political and economic development since the early 1990s and the results have been promising.53 Women in Mongolia had already begun to become more politically engaged and active, and funding formal groups representing the movement has played a big part in not only addressing women’s issues but in expanding voter education and in supporting a civil society watchdog for government behavior.54 It is the recommendation of this research group that NED look for active women's organizations to support in states that are determined to be a possible location for increased democracy. We recognize the support NED has given to empowering women and incorporating women's’ issues into democracy programs but women's groups can play a larger part in pushing for democracy when presented with the appropriate resources and a political platform to discuss their related views and ideas. Women’s groups in Chile were given more license to speak out against the government than regular political organizations and their room to function along with their widespread legitimacy among the public could have been a larger contributor to democracy if they had been properly supported. Looking forward, key factors for ensuring efficacy in women’s group funding are 1) women’s groups have some existing space for activism, 2) these groups have widespread legitimacy at the grassroots level inside the state, and 3) there are women’s issue grievances with high crossover in governance issues, for example, human rights’ abuses or a lack of women in government roles. Women’s groups are an underused asset in promoting and assisting the transition to democracy around the world and NDI should direct resources to helping these groups achieve their full potential in the mission for greater democracy. Fund the Political Middle As discussed above, countries other than the US, especially from Germany, were also active in Chile, and their assistance was critical to building a working political sphere in Chile during Pinochet’s rule. Pinochet suppressed Chile’s broad spectrum of political parties, leaving little space for political parties to act or to raise money inside Chile. As a result, international support was critical for political parties as they formed a coherent opposition, and later, after the plebiscite, prepared to govern.55 Absent a well-funded political middle, many of NED’s programs would not have been effective as they required established political parties as the on-the-ground executors of NED programming. Structured, internationally supported, politically centrist parties were influential players at many of NED’s conferences in convincing other opposition parties to join together and create the “Coalition” that ran the campaign for “No” during the plebiscite. The “Coalition” was the eventual answer to presenting Chile with a true, viable alternative to Pinochet.56 In the case of Chile, NED did not need to play the role of a political party funder, but that does not indicate that they will not need to play that part in the future. A wide spectrum of actors in the Chilean transition recognized the key role of political party funding in having a successful democratic transition. Elliott Abrams views political funding as one of the most important democracy promotion activities moving forward,57 and Sergio Bitar recommended looking at political parties as places for the investment of resources.58 It is our recommendation that NED evaluate the status of political parties in a nation, specifically parties in the political center as they are most able to create a stable coalition after an election. If there is not a sufficient political party structure on the ground, then NED must evaluate whether other groups are contributing to building those structures. If no structure exists and the establishment of that structure is not currently being funded by other actors, then NED should incorporate political party building activities into its strategy if it wants to see an increase in democracy in that country. Support Institutional Capacity A key factor in Chile’s transition was its history of democratic institutions. Prior to Pinochet’s coup, Chile’s presidential democracy lasted for 150 years—second only to the longevity of the US’s presidential democracy. As a result, Chile’s democracy was and is buttressed by effective political institutions. These institutions range from the concrete to the conceptual: office space for legislators and legislative committees, legislative staffers to help them perform research and respond to constituent concerns, horizontal accountability across the government, and a history of rule of law. Over the past thirty years, scholars have developed a deeper understanding of how institutions shape democratic outcomes through their focus on institutions such as the rule of law,59 horizontal accountability,60 and legislative effectiveness.61 Many of these scholars point to cases of the breakdown or failure of democratic institutions as the cause of democracy’s recent decline. The presence of concrete and conceptual democratic institutions in Chile make it an exceptional case—in most countries strong democratic institutions are absent. We recommend that NED consider the importance of Chile’s institutions in its transition when planning programs in other countries. For example, in cases where legislatures lack the physical space and support resources, NED should consider programs that train legislators to organize and demand more funding from the executive branch. Although, NED, as an outside actor, cannot directly strengthen more conceptual institutions such as the rule of law or true horizontal accountability, it can give lawmakers the tools to do so themselves. These activities would maintain NED’s neutrality as they would be provided to all elected officials regardless of affiliation and would not prop up a particular government, as the supported activities would solely finance the resources necessary for governance, and not any actual government programming. CONCLUSION NED support was crucial in enabling Chilean leadership to conduct a successful campaign for Chilean citizens to choose democracy, and in providing the means to build the groundwork to have their 1988 plebiscite actually result in a peaceful democratic transition. The case of Chile is complex, but there are many lessons that NED can take from this success and apply to future scenarios. It is most important to recognize that a precondition to success for any democracy assistance work is that the movement for democratic change is an organically developed grassroots movement organized and led by the members of a concerned population within a country. If that condition is met, then NED can contribute to the success of that movement by recognizing other existing conditions on the ground and responding appropriately. Potential courses of action exemplified by the work in Chile are election monitoring, voter registration support, the creation of space for dialogue, support for media and public relations efforts, and assistance for emerging democratic institutions after an election. There is also the potential to employ strategies not used in Chile or conducted by other supporters: the funding of political parties, support for women’s groups, and support for institutional capacity. “A transition requires actors,”62 and the NED can be one of the actors that serves as a functional, financial, and symbolic intermediary for democratic movements across the globe, if it incorporates the lessons offered by one of its first and largest success stories: Chile. APPENDIX A List of Standardized Questions: 1) How were you directly or indirectly involved in the Chilean plebiscite in the late 80s? 2) Can you talk about your personal experience during this period in Chile? 3) Were you aware of the role of Ned/NDI? 4) Were NDI’s or the NED’s democracy assistance programs more or less important than other levers? 5) We saw that you worked through a grant from the NED. Can you talk at all about what the grant process for NED funding was like? What sort of things NED wanted included in your proposal, timeline of the process, etc? 6) Was there any sort of feedback loop between NED/NDI and the said organization? 7) Was there an approved framework for NED/NDI activities? 8) What would you consider the successes of their programs? What about their failures? 9) What improvements do you think could/should have been made to the NED/NDI strategy? 10) What are the lessons learned from our engagement in Chilean politics, specifically the referendum and election? 11) What were the roles of other international organizations at the time? 12) What strategies, tactics, messaging did you find most effective? 13) What were your greatest challenges? 14) Where do you see the role of NED/NDI in future democratic transitions? 15) What lessons learned can be taken away from this event? Appendix B Elliott Abrams (former Assistant Secretary for Human Rights and Humanitarian Affairs 19811985; former Assistant Secretary for Inter-American Affairs 1985-1989), telephone interview by authors, February 7, 2016. Sergio Bitar (Partido por la Democracia leader), interview by authors, March 10, 2016. Claudia de Solar (Journalist; Professor), interview by authors, March 11, 2016. Maria del Carmen Dominguez (Director of Strategic Planning of the Chilean Foreign Minister), interview by authors, March 11, 2016. Mark Falcoff (scholar, Latin America), interview by authors, February 10, 2016. Robert Gelbard (former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South America 1985-88; former Ambassador to Bolivia 1988-91), interview by authors, March 2, 2016. Carl Gershman (President of the National Endowment for Democracy), interview by authors, January 27, 2016. Claudio Grossman, Claudio (Dean of American University Washington College of Law), interview by authors, March 16, 2016. Barbara Haig (Deputy to the President for Policy & Strategy, National Endowment for Democracy), interview by authors, January 27, 2016. Maria Eugenia “Kenny” Hirmas (Media Analyst), interview by authors, March 23, 2016. Marilyn McAfee (Former Ambassador to Guatemala), telephone interview by authors, February 24, 2016. Heraldo Muñoz (Chilean Minister of Foreign Affairs; co-founder of Partido por la Democracia), interview by authors, March 11, 2016. Carlos Portales (Professor, FLASCO), interview by authors, March 9, 2016. Jim Swigert (Senior Associate and Regional Director Latin America and Caribbean Programs, National Democratic Institute), interview by authors, January 19, 2016. Juan Gabriel Valdés (Chilean Ambassador to the United States), interview by authors, February 17, 2016. Arturo Valenzuela (Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs), interview by authors, March 30, 2016. Kenneth Wollack (President of National Democratic Institute), interview by authors, January 19, 2016. APPENDIX C Parties: (spectrum of left to right, descending) -Movement of the Revolutionary Left (Movimiento de Izquierda Revolucionaria, MIR) -Communist Party (Partido Comunista de Chile, PCCh) -Manuel Rodríguez Patriotic Front (Frente Patriótico Manuel Rodríguez, FPMR) -Socialist Party-Alemeyda faction (Partido Socialista de Chile, PS-Alemeyda) -Movement for United Popular Action (Movimiento de Acción Popular Unitario, MAPU) Divided into: a workers and peasants wing, and a Christian left wing -Christian Left (Partido Izquierda Cristiana de Chile, IC) -Socialist Party-Mandujano (Partido Socialista de Chile, PS-Mandujano -Socialist Party-Briones (PS-Briones) -Socialist Party-Nunez (PS-Nunez) -Radical Party (Partido Radical, PR) -Christian Democratic Party (Partido Demócrata Cristiano, PDC) -Social Democratic Party (Partido Social-Democratico, PSD) -Republican Party (Partido Republicano, RP) -Liberal Party (Partido Liberal, PL) -National Party (Partido Nacional, PN -National United Movement (Movimiento de Unión Nacional, MUN) -National Union Party (NU) -Independent Democratic Union (Unión Demócrata Independiente, UDI APPENDIX D References David Altman, Rafael Piñeiro, and Sergio Toro, “Chile: Coordinating a Successful Democratic Transition,” in Transitions to Democracy: A Comparative Perspective, ed. Kathryn Stoner and Michael McFaul (Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 2013), 198. 2 Ibid., 200. 3 Ibid. 4 Ibid., 200–201. 5 Interviews with Amb. Robert Gelbard and Elliott Abrams. 6 “Ambassador Harry G. Barnes, Jr.” Interview by Charles Stuart Kennedy. The Association for Diplomatic Studies and Training. N.p., 25 Apr. 2001. http://www.adst.org/OH%20TOCs/Barnes,%20Harry%20G.%20Jr.toc.pdf. 2 Apr. 2016. 7 Randy B Reiter, M V Zunzunegui, and Jose Quiroga, “Guidelines for Field Reporting of Basic Human Rights Violations,” Human Rights Quarterly 8, no. 4 (1986): 628–53. 8 David Altman, Rafael Piñeiro, and Sergio Toro, “Chile: Coordinating a Successful Democratic Transition,” in Transitions to Democracy: A Comparative Perspective, ed. Kathryn Stoner and Michael McFaul (Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 2013), 203. 9 Interview with Amb. Juan Gabriel Valdés. 10 Jaime Llambias-Wolff, “The Voluntary Repatriation Process of Chilean Exiles,” International Migration 31, no. 4 (October 1, 1993): 579–99. 11 Ibid. 12 Interviews Amb. Robert Gelbard and Elliott Abrams 13 Interview with Amb. Robert Gelbard. 14 Mario Sznajder and Luis Roniger, “Exile Communities and Their Differential Institutional Dynamics: A Comparative Analysis of the Chilean and Uruguayan Political Diasporas ,” Revista de Ciencia Política (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. Instituto de Ciencia Política , 2007). 15 Ibid. 16 Ibid. 17 Ibid. 18 Morris H Morley and Chris McGillion, Reagan and Pinochet : The Struggle over U.S. Policy toward Chile, 2015. 19 Interview with Amb. Robert Gelbard. 20 Michael Pinto-Duschinsky, “Foreign Political Aid: The German Political Foundations and Their US Counterparts,” International Affairs (Royal Institute of International Affairs 1944-), 1991, 33–63. 21 Ibid., 40. 22 Ibid. 23 Mario Fernández Baeza, “The Landmarks of Half a Century of Solidarity: The Konrad-AdenauerStiftung In Chile (1962-2012)” (Berlin, 2012), 40. 24 Ibid.; Pinto-Duschinsky, “Foreign Political Aid: The German Political Foundations and Their US Counterparts,” 34. 25 Fernández Baeza, “The Landmarks of Half a Century of Solidarity: The Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung In Chile (1962-2012),” 40. 26 Altman, Piñeiro, and Toro, “Chile: Coordinating a Successful Democratic Transition,” 206. 27 Ibid. 28 Ibid. 29 Ibid. 30 Interview with Sergio Bitar. 31 Interviews with Sergio Bitar and Carlos Portales. 32 Interview with Carlos Portales. 1 33 Interview with Amb. Juan Gabriel Valdés. Interview with Amb. Maria del Carmen Dominguez 35 Interview with Amb. Juan Gabriel Valdés.. 36 Interview with Amb. Maria del Carmen Dominguez 37 Paul. Drake and Arturo Valenzuela, The Chilean Plebiscite : A First Step Toward Redemocratization (Pittsburgh, PA: Association of Latin American Studies, 1989), 7. 38 Interview with Carlos Portales. 39 Interview with Carlos Portales. 40 Interview with Arturo Valenzuela. 41 Drake and Valenzuela, The Chilean Plebiscite : A First Step Toward Redemocratization. 42 National Democratic Institute. Chile's Transition to Democracy: The 1988 Plebiscite.Washington DC, 1988. 43 Genaro Arriagada, “Chile’s Successful Transition to Democracy,” in Democratic Transitions: Conversations with World Leaders, ed. Sergio Bitar (Baltimore: JHU Press, 2015). 44 Ibid. 45 Jeffrey. Puryear, Thinking Politics : Intellectuals and Democracy in Chile, 1973-1988 (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1994). 46 Interview with Marilyn McAfee. 47 Edgardo Boeninger, “The Chilean Road to Democracy,” Foreign Affairs 64, no. 4 (1986): 812–32. 48 National Democratic Institute, Proceedings of Transition to Democracy: Chile (Caracas, 1986). 49 Interviews with Claudia de Solar and Kenny Bitar. 50 Interview with Kenny Bitar. 51 Elisa María Carrío, “The Challenges of Women’s Participation in the Legislature: A New Look at Argentina,” Women in Parliament: Beyond the Numbers, 2002. 52 Robin Bush, “Lessons from Indonesia’s Democratic Transition,” Asia Foundation, 2011, http://asiafoundation.org/in-asia/2011/05/04/lessons-from-indonesia%E2%80%99s-democratictransition/. 53 Katherine S. Hunter, “Strengthening Democracy Through Women’s Political Participation” (Washington, DC, 2012). 54 Ibid. 55 Interviews with Sergio Bitar and Carlos Portales. 56 Interview with Amb. Juan Gabriel Valdés. 57 Interview with Elliott Abrams. 58 Interview with Sergio Bitar. 59 Larry Jay Diamond, Leonardo Morlino, and American Political Science Association, Assessing the Quality of Democracy (Cambridge Univ Press, 2005); Adam. Przeworski and José María. Maravall, “Democracy and the Rule of Law” (Cambridge, UK; New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2003). 60 Guillermo A O’Donnell, “Horizontal Accountability in New Democracies,” Journal of Democracy 9, no. 3 (1998): 112–26. 61 Joel D Barkan, Legislative Power in Emerging African Democracies (Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2009). 62 Interview with Carlos Portales. 34