R October 2003 Using Marijuana May Not Increase the Risk of Hard Drug Use Marijuana is widely regarded as a “gateway” drug, that is, one whose use results in an increased likelihood of using more dangerous drugs such as cocaine and heroin. The gateway effect has frequently been cited by policymakers in defense of laws prohibiting the use or possession of marijuana. For example, many arguments against the decriminalization or legalization of marijuana have been based on the premise that the use of marijuana causes youths to have an increased risk of progressing to other, more serious drugs. Many observers conclude that available evidence makes a case for the gateway effect. Studies have shown that marijuana users are many times more likely (85 times more likely, in one study) than nonusers to progress to hard drug use. Other studies have found that almost all who have used both marijuana and hard drugs used marijuana first, and that, as the frequency of marijuana use increases, so too does the risk of initiating hard drug use. But these associations in themselves do not prove that marijuana use causes hard drug initiation. Moreover, a recent DPRC analysis by researchers Andrew R. Morral, Daniel F. McCaffrey, and Susan M. Paddock provides the first quantitative evidence that the associations between marijuana use and hard drug use can be explained without resort to the gateway effect. Using survey data from the U.S. population, the researchers found that these associations can be accounted for by an alternative theory: Those who use drugs may have an underlying propensity to do so that is not specific to any one drug. This “common-factor” model has implications for evaluating marijuana control policies that differ significantly from those supported by the gateway model. An Alternative Explanation for Associations Between Marijuana and Hard Drug Use To understand whether drug-use associations could be explained by a common-factor model, the research team first examined the drug-use patterns reported by more than 38,000 U.S. residents between the ages of 12 and 25 who participated in the National Household Surveys on Drug Abuse (NHSDA) between 1982 and 1994.1 Using a statistical model, the researchers then tested whether the observed patterns of drug-use initiation might be expected if drug-initiation risks were determined exclusively by ● ● ● 1 the time of the youths’ first opportunity to use each drug individuals’ drug-use propensity, which was assumed to be normally distributed (i.e., some people have a high or low propensity, but most have a propensity near the middle of the range) chance (or random) factors. 4䊳 In This Issue Using Marijuana May Not Increase the Risk of Hard Drug Use 1 Director’s Message 2 New Book Provides a Comprehensive View of the Public Health and Public Policy Issues Associated with Marijuana Use 3 Study Addresses the Safety and Effectiveness of Ephedra 5 New Project 5 New Publications 6 New People 9 2003–4 Speaker Series 12 In subsequent years, respondents have not been asked about their first opportunity to use various drugs. 1 D I R E C T O R ’ S M E S S A G E Exploring Drug Use and Drug Policy Futures The last 10 to 15 years have seen few dramatic developments in America’s drug use. While the period from the 1960s to the 1980s saw the spread of marijuana, the heroin epidemic, the explosion of cocaine initiation, and the spread of crack and street markets, the past several years have seen America’s drug problem settle, at least superficially, into a time of stability or, at most, predictable change. This stability in drug problems has been mirrored by an even longer-standing stability in drug policy, in which America’s primary response to illicit drug use has been an emphasis on enforcement and punishment. But history suggests that the stability of the past decade is likely to be more the exception than the rule. For this reason, it can be useful to seek insights into potential drug use and drug policy futures. In other words, we need to ask why and how drug problems and policy might be different in the future from what they are now. To explore this question, the DPRC held a colloquium, “Drug Use and Drug Policy Futures,” at RAND in August 2002. The colloquium, attended by scholars from RAND and other institutions, was supported with discretionary funds provided to the DPRC by The Ford Foundation. change in the future, there might be corresponding changes in drug use and policy. To cite another example, new trends in the use of licit substances, such as cigarettes, might also affect future illicit drug use. Cigarette smokers are more likely to use marijuana than are nonsmokers. If this relationship reflects causality and not just coincidence, and if tobacco use keeps falling, marijuana use could also fall. Other drivers of future drug use and policy trends include The Factors Driving Drug Use and Drug Policy Could Change Assumptions Underlying Drug Policy Might Be Challenged How might drug problems and policy look different in the future from how they do today? One possibility is a shift in one of the factors driving drug use and drug policy. For example, in terms of morality, although the past 40 years have been marked by a shift toward individualist, relativist, secular values, this shift has not—so far—extended dramatically to illicit drug policy. However, if codes of morality regarding drug use were to Trends in drug use and drug policy might also change because of shifts in some of the assumptions underlying current trends. For example, drug policy in the United States is currently focused on the use of cocaine, heroin, and marijuana, since collectively, these drugs account for nearly 90 percent of drug use, as well as most of the associated addiction, morbidity, mortality, and crime. But how might the drug policy context shift if there were 2 ● ● ● ● ● ● the influence of interest groups, particularly as such organizations gain political savvy the level of illicit drug experience among the voting populace state drug laws that come into conflict with federal policy, particularly if a case pitting federal control against state prerogatives were to come before the U.S. Supreme Court counterterrorism policies globalization of trade, which contributes to the availability of drugs and complicates their control increases in violent crime, since, in the United States, violent crime has traditionally been associated with drug use. a dramatic increase in the use of another drug, such as ecstasy or methamphetamine? Such a shift in usage would mean that the United States was facing the contagious spread of an important drug, with consequent stresses on the enforcement and treatment system. Current drug policy is also based on the assumption that incarceration, and the threat thereof, is the mainstay of prohibition. Some alternative policies have been implemented, such as drug courts and California’s Proposition 36, which mandates treatment for persons convicted of simple use or possession. But the impact of both these alternatives has so far been limited: Drug courts can process only a small fraction of drug offenders, and it is too soon to evaluate the success of the California law. In the future, however, a carefully thought-out alternative drug policy might be found to significantly reduce drug use at lower government cost. The success of any such variation in one jurisdiction could serve to challenge long-held assumptions about the benefits of incarceration, thus encouraging states and even the federal government to experiment or imitate successful alternative policies. Other current assumptions are also subject to challenge. Will all drugs continue to be addressed under a single “drug policy,” or will an individual drug (e.g., marijuana) become a candidate for differential treatment? What if greater enthusiasm were shown for drug treatment programs, resulting in increased investment in effective programs? What would happen if public attitudes, including those among racial and ethnic minorities, began to shift against the current policy of strict prohibition? Wild Cards Might Come into Play Any attempt to explore possible futures of drug use and drug policy needs to consider the possibility that a low-probability but highly consequential event—a “wild card”—might come into play. What might these wild cards be? Developments in neuroscience might result in a treatment model, perhaps based on medication, that is dramatically more effective than those currently employed or even contemplated. A celebrity death attributed to ecstasy or another club drug could have a significant effect on initiation for that drug. Some yet-to-be-invented “helpful” drug (e.g., intended to help people improve memory, lose weight, treat depression) could result in a new epidemic. Or significant advances in technology related to drug testing might make such testing more routine, with potential consequences for criminal justice, workplace rules, and even family relationships. Conclusion The colloquium on drug use and policy futures demonstrated that a semistructured approach to thinking about the future of drug problems and policy can yield some interesting alternative visions. The concepts explored in the colloquium can help focus attention on elements of policy or other influences that, if addressed now, could reduce the chances of an unwanted turn of events. Moreover, by playing out some of the specific scenarios to their ultimate conclusions, policymakers have the opportunity to identify complex issues whose eventual resolution could benefit from immediate attention. The examples highlighted above suggest that the approach to futures analysis taken in the RAND colloquium could be of real value in reviewing current drug policy. A useful next step would be to infer a comprehensive set of policy implications from the futures envisioned here. ■ For further information see Jonathan P. Caulkins, Peter Reuter, Martin Y. Iguchi, and James Chiesa, Drug Use and Drug Policy Futures: Insights from a Colloquium, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND, IP-246-DPRC, 2003, www.rand.org/publications/ IP/IP246/. New Book Provides a Comprehensive View of the Public Health and Public Policy Issues Associated with Marijuana Use The marijuana policy debate in developed societies is often represented as if it involved a choice between only two positions: on the one side are those who believe that marijuana use is harmless (or at least much less harmful than alcohol) and therefore should not be prohibited; on the other side are those who say that marijuana use is harmful to health, and therefore its use should continue to be prohibited. As a consequence of this polarization, the policy discussion has often been reduced to a single question: “Does marijuana adversely affect the health of those who use it?” The simplification of the policy debate has led to distorted appraisals of the health risks of marijuana use and created a major obstacle to effective public education about its health risks. A new book by Wayne Hall and DPRC economist Rosalie Liccardo Pacula aims to move beyond such policy simplifications. Cannabis Use and Dependence: Public Health and Public Policy (see box) seeks to provide a fairer and fuller picture of the costs of marijuana use and of the policies that have been adopted toward marijuana. Focusing on data from the United States, Europe, and Australia, the study cites evidence on a range of harms probably caused by marijuana use, including respiratory disease, dependence, adverse effects on adolescent development, the exacerbation of psychosis, and an increased risk of car accidents. The study also discusses evidence on the harms associated with marijuana prohibition, including the loss of liberty to use marijuana, the creation of a black market, disrespect for a widely broken and minimally enforced law, harm to users’ reputations, impaired health education about marijuana and other drugs, the loss of benefits from marijuana including medical use, and the inefficient use of law enforcement resources. The authors note that even if all the costs and benefits of marijuana use could be quantified, in order to decide upon a policy, societies would still need to make trade-offs among incommensurable values, weighing, for example, the adverse effects that marijuana use has on the health and well-being of adolescent and adult users versus the individual liberty of adult marijuana users or the economic costs of enforcing prohibition. The authors do not attempt to decide how such trade-offs should be made. They do argue, however, that marijuana policies need to be more responsive to evidence on both the adverse health effects of marijuana and the costs and effectiveness of marijuana control policies. Better public policy on marijuana will require investments both in epidemiological research on the long-term health consequences of use and in rigorous research on the costs and benefits of current and alternative policy options. The larger public health and social policy communities also need to be more involved in the debate. As the authors of this new book demonstrate, policies on marijuana use are too important to be left, as they so often have been, to those who proffer only the falsely simplified forced choices that are usually represented in public debates on marijuana policy. ■ New Book Cannabis Use and Dependence: Public Health and Public Policy by Wayne Hall and Rosalie Liccardo Pacula (Cambridge University Press, forthcoming) provides the first comprehensive examination of the costs of marijuana use and of the policies that have been adopted toward marijuana. Drawing on evidence from the United States, Europe, and Australia, the authors examine what is known about cannabis as a drug along with patterns of recreational use in developed societies; they also review evidence on the adverse health and psychological effects of use, including the effects on adolescents, and consider the harms and benefits of use. The book surveys several key areas of the policy debate, including the potential deterrent effects of the prohibition on marijuana use, the economic costs of enforcing the current prohibition on marijuana use and supply, and alternative marijuana control policies. The authors conclude by suggesting some ways to move the policy debate forward by developing support for incremental policy changes—the costs and effects of which would be systematically evaluated. 3 Without assuming any gateway effect, the model produced patterns of drug use and abuse remarkably similar to what is experienced across the nation, demonstrating that a marijuana gateway effect is not needed to explain the observed associations between marijuana and hard drug initiation. For example, even though marijuana use had no effect on hard drug use in the model, it faithfully reproduced U.S. drug initiation patterns in which marijuana users are much more likely to try hard drugs than nonusers (Figure 1). Moreover, the model reproduced the strong propensity among young people in the United States to use one drug (marijuana) before initiating use of another (hard) drug—chiefly because opportunities to use marijuana routinely precede opportunities to use hard drugs, often by many years. The model predicted that only a small fraction of hard drug users would have tried a drug other than marijuana first. Whereas in the NHSDA data, 1.6 percent of adolescents tried hard drugs before marijuana, the model predicted an even stronger sequencing of drug initiation, with just 1.1 percent trying hard drugs first. Finally, the modeled relationship between the frequency of marijuana use and hard drug initiation closely matched the actual relationship. Figure 2 shows the actual (colored bars) and modeled (gray bars) probabilities that marijuana users will initiate hard drugs in the current year in relation to the frequency of their marijuana use in the past year. Policy Implications The results of the DPRC model of drug initiation do not disprove the gateway effect; they merely show that another explanation is plausible. In fact, the researchers note that something like a gateway effect probably does exist, if only because marijuana purchases bring users into contact with a black market that increases access to hard drugs. However, it is possible that any true marijuana gateway effects can explain only a tiny fraction of individuals’ risk of hard drug use in comparison with 4 the risk attributable to Figure 1—Actual Versus Modeled Probabilities of their propensities to Marijuana Users and Nonusers Initiating Hard use drugs. Moreover, it Drug Use is possible that mariActual juana use could inNonusers crease the risk of hard drug use for some Users youths while decreasing that risk for others, Modeled thus resulting in an inNonusers significant effect from Users marijuana use on drug use when looking at 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 the entire population Probability of initiating hard drugs by age 21 of adolescents. Some might argue that as long as the gateFigure 2—Actual Versus Modeled Probabilities of way theory remains a Hard Drug Initiation, Given Marijuana Use possible explanation, Frequency in the Preceding Year policymakers should retain current stric0 Actual tures against mariModeled 1–2 juana use and possession. However, while 3–11 the authors do not argue that marijuana 12–51 should be legalized or 52+ decriminalized, they note that the common0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 factor model has quite Probability that marijuana users will initiate hard drugs different policy impliin the current year, youths 12–21 cations for reducing drug use and its harms. Specifically, it of increased marijuana availability and suggests that policies aimed at reducing use, including the potential for adverse or eliminating marijuana use are unlikely effects on the health, development, eduto have any effect on hard drug use, cation, and cognitive functioning of except insofar as such policies affect marijuana users. either an individual’s propensity to use However, as the DPRC study indicates, any drugs or result in hard drugs bethe harms of marijuana use can no longer coming less available (or available later) be viewed as necessarily including an exin youths’ lives. pansion of hard drug use and its associIn addition, prohibition policies are ated harms. This shift in perspective not cost-free, and their harms can be sigought to affect the overall balance benificant. The more than 700,000 maritween the harms and benefits of different juana arrests per year in the United States marijuana policies. ■ burden individuals, families, neighborFor further information, see Using Marijuana hoods, and society as a whole. Decisions May Not Raise the Risk of Using Harder Drugs, about marijuana policy must necessarily Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND, RB-6010, 2002, take into account many other factors in www.rand.org/publications/RB/RB6010/. See addition to whether or not marijuana is also Andrew R. Morral, Daniel F. McCaffrey, and Susan M. Paddock, “Reassessing the Marijuana a gateway drug. The authors suggest Gateway Effect,” Addiction, Vol. 97, 2002, pp. that marijuana policies should weigh the 1493–1504. harms of prohibition against the harms Frequency of marijuana use in past year 1䊳 Study Addresses the Safety and Effectiveness of Ephedra New Project Products that contain the herb ephedra have been promoted and used in the United States since the 1980s to increase weight loss and enhance athletic performance. Yet despite manufacturers’ claims, little research has been done to assess the safety and effectiveness of ephedracontaining dietary supplements, and the research studies that have been done have been too small to allow any firm conclusions to be drawn. To address these issues, researchers from RAND Health recently completed an exhaustive review of health studies involving products containing the herb ephedra or the drug ephedrine. The study was conducted at the request of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. The analysis of available evidence suggests that ephedra and ephedrine promote modest short-term weight loss although their long-term effect is unknown. Ephedrine plus caffeine was found to boost immediate physical performance for fit young men; however, there was no evidence that ephedra or ephedrine improves long-term physical performance of athletes or would work for the general public. The evidence also showed that these products are related to a two- or threefold increase in side effects such as nausea, vomiting, jitteriness, and palpitations. Moreover, the review found that there may be a link between these products and catastrophic events such as sudden death, heart attack, or stroke. The existing evidence in itself is insufficient to link these products conclusively with death and other serious health problems. However, the analysis of the existing studies and their shortcomings suggests that a more definitive answer to questions about ephedra’s safety could be obtained through further study. In response to the RAND report, the federal government quickly moved to propose stricter labeling of ephedra products and solicited public comment on whether the safety evidence thus far warrants further restrictions. Getting to Outcomes: A Community-Based Participatory Approach to Preventive Interventions The review was conducted within the Southern California Evidence-Based Practice Center (SCEPC), which is based at RAND. The SCEPC is one of 13 federally sponsored evidence-based practice centers nationwide that specialize in seeking answers to important health care questions through assessing and synthesizing evidence from large numbers of research studies. Statistically combining the findings of many similar studies increases researchers’ confidence that small apparent differences in the effects of two treatments are real. Only controlled clinical trials and randomized controlled trials of effectiveness were included in the analysis. Randomized controlled trials are clinical trials in which participants are assigned randomly to one of two or more treatment groups. Controlled clinical trials are those in which participants are assigned to a treatment group using a semi-random procedure, such as participant’s date of birth or a patient identification number. In all, researchers reviewed the results of 52 clinical trials. ■ For further information, see Ephedra: Is It Worth the Risk? RAND: Santa Monica, Calif., RB-4556, 2003, www.rand.org/publications/RB/RB4556/. See also P. Shekelle, M. Hardy, S. C. Morton, M. Maglione, M. Suttorp, E. Roth, L. Jungvig, W. Mojica, J. Gagne, S. Rhodes, E. McKinnon, and S. Newberry, Ephedra and Ephedrine for Weight Loss and Athletic Performance Enhancement: Clinical Efficacy and Side Effects, prepared for the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, 2003, www.ahrq.gov/clinic/ephedinv.htm. See also P. Shekelle, M. Hardy, S. C. Morton, M. Maglione, W. Mojica, M. Suttorp, S. Rhodes, L. Jungvig, and J. Gagne, “Efficacy and Safety of Ephedra and Ephedrine for Weight Loss and Athletic Performance: A Meta-Analysis,” Journal of the American Medical Association, March 26, 2003, Vol. 289, No. 12, pp. 1537–1545. Substance abuse prevention programs can improve community health, but only when they are implemented well. Effective implementation is difficult given the advanced skills required, causing a gap between the positive outcomes achieved by prevention science and those observed in practice. A new DPRC study seeks to address this gap through a model that emphasizes collaboration between science and practice. The model, called “Getting to Outcomes” (GTO), is based on the premise that preventive interventions should be consistent with the principles of community-based participatory research (CBPR). In CBPR, community members are directly involved in research, leading to outcomes that are often more relevant, more widely utilized, and of better quality. GTO includes both a prevention process and a corresponding technical assistance package that can be used to develop community-based participatory interventions. GTO involves a ten-step process to enhance practitioners’ prevention skills while empowering them to plan, implement, and evaluate their own programs. To test GTO, the researchers recently began a Centers for Disease Control– funded participatory research project in two substance abuse prevention coalitions in the United States. Coalitions organize interventions on multiple levels (individual, organizational, and policy) and across sectors (parents, youth, criminal justice, and education). The project includes GTO training and significant technical assistance. GTO’s impact will be assessed through evaluation of individual programs as well as surveys administered to all coalitions before GTO implementation, and at 12 and 24 months following implementation. Standard assessment techniques will be used to track GTO utilization. After seven months, 48 persons from the coalitions have been trained and four programs have begun to receive 5 technical assistance on completing the GTO steps. Although it is too early for results, field notes show that GTO is already changing the way the prevention programs are implemented. ■ New Publications Drug Policy and Trends 䊳Jonathan P. Caulkins and Robert Mac- Coun, “Limited Rationality and the Limits of Supply Reduction,” Journal of Drug Issues, Vol. 33, No. 2, 2003, pp. 433–464. According to economics, interventions that restrict supply typically drive prices up; in drug markets, however, retail prices for cocaine and heroin have fallen by 70 to 80 percent even as these markets have been targeted for increasingly tough enforcement. This paper explores the possibility that part of the explanation for this paradox may lie in the failure of drug dealers to respond to risk in the way predicted by the simplest “rational-actor” models. According to such models, increasing enforcement risk deters people from selling drugs at prices that provide less than a certain monetary reward; the authors suggest, however, that for the decision to sell drugs, deviations from such a notion of rationality are likely to be large, whether because of bounded rationality or even “less rational” behavior. 䊳Martin Y. Iguchi, Jennifer A. London, Nell Griffith Forge, Laura Hickman, Terry Fain, and Kara Riehman, “Elements of Well-Being Affected by Criminalizing the Drug User,” Public Health Reports, Vol. 117, Suppl. 1, 2002, pp. S146–S150. This article describes eight elements of personal and community well-being that may be affected by state and federal policies on drug felons: children and families, access to health benefits, access to housing benefits, access to assistance for higher education, immigration status, employment, eligibility to vote, and drug use or recidivism. Because minorities have a high chance of felony conviction and an increasing lack of access to re- 6 sources, minority communities will be disproportionately affected as large numbers of drug offenders complete their terms and reenter these communities. Without resources (education, job opportunities, insurance, health care, housing, and the right to vote), drug abusers face a higher risk of recidivism and increase the burden on their communities. 䊳Rosalie Liccardo Pacula, Jamie F. Chriqui, Deborah A. Reichmann, and Yvonne M. Terry-McElrath, “State Medical Marijuana Laws: Understanding the Laws and Their Limitations,” Journal of Public Health Policy, Vol. 23, No. 4, 2002, pp. 413–439. This paper provides a comprehensive view of state medical marijuana laws. The authors identify four types of provisions enabling the medical use of marijuana and discuss the tensions these approaches have with federal law as well as their implications for patient access. They suggest that the legality and viability of state laws will likely be made on a case-by-case basis, although two overarching issues are the federal courts’ refusal to accept a medical necessity exception for marijuana and the need for states to create a legitimate supply mechanism for patients without overburdening law enforcement. 䊳Peter Reuter and Jonathan P. Caulkins, “Does Precursor Regulation Make a Difference?” Addiction, Vol. 98, No. 9, 2003, pp. 1177–1179. This editorial was prompted by a recent study that found that three different methamphetamine precursor regulations each led to sharp reductions in methamphetamine-related hospital admissions in three western U.S. states. A brief examination of other indicators (prices, treatment admissions, prevalence among arrestees, survey results, and emergency department mentions) provided only ambiguous support for these findings. The authors indicate that a follow-up study considering the interrelationships among a broader set of indicators would be instructive. Granting that precursor control can affect the market, the key question becomes whether the benefits of those ef- fects are large or small relative to the costs of producing them. Prevention 䊳James Zacny, George Bigelow, Peggy Compton, Kathleen Foley, Martin Iguchi, and Christine Sannerud, “College on Problems of Drug Dependence Taskforce on Prescription Opioid Non-Medical Use and Abuse: Position Statement,” Drug and Alcohol Dependence, Vol. 69, No. 3, 2003, pp. 215–232. This paper reviews the epidemiology of prescription opioid use and abuse, the availability of laboratory testing to determine abuse liability, the role of regulatory agencies, and the range of treatment options. A central theme is the need to strike a balance between the need for physicians and patients to have appropriate access to opioid pharmaceuticals for the treatment of pain and risk management strategies to prevent and deter prescription abuse. Treatment 䊳Chloe E. Bird, Kimberly J. Jinnett, M. Audrey Burnam, Paul Koegel, Greer Sullivan, Suzanne L. Wenzel, M. Susan Ridgely, Sally C. Morton, and Angela Miu, “Predictors of Contact with Public Service Sectors Among Homeless Adults With and Without Alcohol and Other Drug Disorders,” Journal of Studies on Alcohol, Vol. 63, No. 6, 2002, pp. 716–725. The authors examined predictors of contact with health, mental health, social welfare, and criminal justice service agencies among a sample of homeless adults in Houston, Tex., finding that key aspects of need (e.g., a chronic physical condition) were significant predictors of utilization among those without an alcohol or drug problem, but not for those with such a problem. For the latter group, contact with one sector was not predictive of contact with other sectors. This study highlights substantial unmet needs for services among homeless persons in general and among those with alcohol and other drug disorders in particular. 䊳Lisa H. Jaycox, Andrew R. Morral, and Jaana Juvonen, “Mental Health and Medical Problems and Service Use Among Adolescent Substance Users,” Journal of the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, Vol. 42, No. 6, 2003, pp. 701–709. This study examined the mental health and medical services received by youths ages 12 to 19 who were admitted to substance abuse treatment programs between 1998 and 2001. High levels of mental health problems were found at both time points, but few youths received mental health treatment, suggesting that more could be done to link youths with these services. In contrast, there were lower rates of medical problems, but more than half of youths received such services. 䊳Maria Orlando, Kitty S. Chan, and Andrew Morral, “Retention of CourtReferred Youths in Residential Treatment Programs: Client Characteristics and Treatment Process Effects,” The American Journal of Drug and Alcohol Abuse, Vol. 29, No. 2, 2003, pp. 337–357. The authors interviewed youths referred to residential treatment programs by the Juvenile Court of Los Angeles in order to identify the factors that influence youths to stay in treatment. Significant predictors of retention included youth pretreatment characteristics (e.g., motivation and substance use severity) as well as treatment program factors (e.g., safety and perceived over- and under-provision of services), the latter implying that changes in program delivery may increase retention rates. Pretreatment environmental risk factors and ratings of program counselor and resident support were marginally significant. 䊳Kara S. Riehman, Martin Y. Iguchi, Michelle Zeller, and Andrew R. Morral, “The Influence of Partner Drug Use and Relationship Power on Treatment Engagement,” Drug and Alcohol Dependence, Vol. 70, No. 1, 2003, pp. 1–10. Researchers interviewed 64 heroin users (42 men and 22 women) receiving methadone detoxification treatment in Los Angeles to determine the influence of relationship dynamics between intimate partners (power, control, dependence, insecurity, and decisionmaking power) on substance abuse treatment engagement, and to determine whether this differs by gender and partner drug use. The study found that women were more likely to have substance-abusing partners and to report greater power over a partner and greater household decisionmaking power in their relationships. Among individuals with heroin-using partners, greater household decisionmaking power was associated with more days of abstinence. 䊳J. S. Tucker, M. A. Burnam, C. D. Sherbourne, F. Kung, A. L. Gifford, “Substance Use and Mental Health Correlates of Nonadherence to Antiretroviral Medications in a Sample of Patients with Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection,” The American Journal of Medicine, Vol. 114, No. 7, 2003, pp. 573–580. This study investigated associations of antiretroviral medication nonadherence with specific types of psychiatric disorders and drug use, and varying levels of alcohol use. Patients with depression, generalized anxiety disorder, or panic disorder were more likely to be nonadherent than were those without a psychiatric disorder. Nonadherence was also associated with use of cocaine, marijuana, amphetamines, or sedatives in the previous month; drinkers were also more likely to be nonadherent. 䊳Susan Turner, Douglas Longshore, Suzanne Wenzel, Elizabeth Deschenes, Peter Greenwood, Terry Fain, Adele Harrell, Andrew Morral, Faye Taxman, Martin Iguchi, Judith Greene, and Duane McBride, “A Decade of Drug Treatment Court Research,” Substance Use and Misuse, Vol. 37, Nos. 12 and 13, 2002, pp. 1489–1527. This article explores a decade of drug treatment court research conducted at RAND, starting with the experimental field evaluation of Maricopa’s drug testing and treatment options to the most current 14-site national evaluation of courts funded in 1995–1996 by the Drug Court Program Office. The article presents summaries of findings, a brief description of a drug treatment court typology, and suggestions of where future research might focus. 䊳Glenn Wagner, Martin Iguchi, Stephan Schneider, James Scott, and David Anderson, “Placebo Practice Trials: A Tool to Assess and Improve Adherence Readiness,” HIV Clinical Trials, Vol. 3, No. 6, 2002, pp. 475–481. HIV antiretroviral therapy is now increasingly delayed until later stages of illness, and providers are emphasizing the need for patients to be ready to adhere to the treatment regimen. This pilot study assessed the utility of a series of up to five one-week placebo practice trials accompanied by adherence counseling as a clinical tool to both assess and improve adherence readiness. Nine of 20 participants achieved a 90+ percent adherence in the first practice trial, with an additional 8 participants demonstrating readiness after two to four practice trials. Of the 17 who demonstrated adherence readiness, 15 started on an antiretroviral regimen, 13 of whom (87 percent) achieved 90+ percent adherence during the first month of therapy. 䊳Katherine Watkins and Terri L. Tanielian, “Using the Chronic Care Model to Improve Treatment of Alcohol Use Disorders in Primary Care Settings,” Journal of Studies on Alcohol, Vol. 64, No. 2, 2003, pp. 209–218. The chronic-care model (CCM) is a heuristic model that offers an approach to increase the ability of primary care physicians to identify, treat, and effectively manage alcohol use disorders by creating informed patients, prepared practice teams, and productive interactions. The authors propose a three-phase research agenda for implementing and evaluating the use of the model in the treatment of alcohol use disorders. 䊳K. B. Wells, C. D. Sherbourne, R. Sturm, A. S. Young, and M. A. Burnam, “Alcohol, Drug Abuse, and Mental Health Care for Uninsured and Insured Adults,” Health Services Research, Vol. 37, No. 4, 2002, pp. 1055–1066. Researchers compared adults with different levels of insurance coverage for alcohol, drug abuse, and mental health (ADM) problems. The study found that 7 the uninsured have the most problems with access to and quality of ADM care, relative to the somewhat comparable Medicaid population. Persons in fully managed plans were found to have better access and quality compared with those in partially managed plans, while those with Medicare were found to be satisfied despite low ADM use. Across plans, the unmet need for ADM care was high. Drug and Alcohol Use and Consequences 䊳B. M. Booth, G. Sullivan, P. Koegel, and A. Burnam, “Vulnerability Factors for Homelessness Associated with Substance Dependence in a Community Sample of Homeless Adults,” American Journal of Drug and Alcohol Abuse, Vol. 28, No. 3, 2002, pp. 429–452. The authors examined substance dependence among a sample of 1,185 homeless individuals in relation to other personal and social vulnerabilities linked to homelessness, including sociodemographics, childhood/adolescent factors, pre-homelessness factors, multiple episodes of homelessness, and quality of shelter. These factors were significantly concentrated in homeless individuals with lifetime and recent substance dependence. Profiles of the homeless with alcohol dependence alone were distinct from those with drug dependence alone or both, those who were older, those who were male, those with longer histories of homelessness, and those with significantly poorer-quality shelter during the previous 30 days. 䊳F. H. Galvin, E. G. Bing, J. A. Fleish- man, A. S. London, R. Caetano, M. A. Burnam, D. Longshore, S. C. Morton, M. Orlando, and M. Shapiro, “The Prevalence of Alcohol Consumption and Heavy Drinking Among People with HIV in the United States: Results from the HIV Cost and Services Utilization Study,” Journal of Studies on Alcohol, Vol. 63, No. 2, 2002, pp. 179–186. This study found that alcohol consumption is common among people in care for HIV, with rates of heavy drinking almost twice those found in the general 8 population. Heavy drinking is especially high among individuals with lower educational levels and users of cocaine or heroin. 䊳Robert Heimer, Scott Clair, Lauretta E. Grau, Ricky N. Bluthenthal, Patricia A. Marshall, and Merrill Singer, “HepatitisAssociated Knowledge Is Low and Risks Are High Among HIV-Aware Injection Drug Users in Three U.S. Cities,” Addiction, Vol. 97, No. 10, 2002, pp. 1277–1287. This article describes interrelationships among HIV and hepatitis knowledge, risky drug preparation and injection practices, and participation in syringe exchange programs (SEPs) among injection drug users in three inner-city neighborhoods. HIV knowledge was found to be significantly higher than hepatitis knowledge among SEP customers and noncustomers alike. Elevated hepatitis knowledge was associated with a history of substance abuse treatment, hepatitis infection, hepatitis B vaccination, and injection practices that reduced contact with contaminated blood or water. SEP customers were consistently less likely to engage in risk behaviors (with the notable exception of safely staunching blood postinjection) but did not show elevated hepatitis knowledge, suggesting the need for SEPs to do more in this area. 䊳M. Muñoz, P. Koegel, C. Vázquez, J. Sanz, and A. Burnam, “An Empirical Comparison of Substance and Alcohol Dependence Patterns in the Homeless in Madrid (Spain) and Los Angeles (CA, USA),” Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology, Vol. 37, 2002, pp. 289–298. This study compared data concerning alcohol and other drug abuse and dependence among the homeless populations of Madrid and Los Angeles. The results show different sociodemographic profiles for each city, as well as significant differences in social, emotional, and health problems associated with the consumption of alcohol and other drugs. 䊳Kara S. Riehman, Martin Iguchi, and M. Douglas Anglin, “Depressive Symptoms Among Amphetamine and Cocaine Users Before and After Substance Abuse Treatment,” Psychology of Addictive Behaviors, Vol. 16, No. 4, 2002, pp. 333–337. Amphetamine users tend to have higher rates of depressive symptoms than do cocaine users. This study found that this difference may be due to the great likelihood of amphetamine users to be polydrug users, or to have had a major lifetime depressive episode, or both. The researchers found no evidence that depressive symptoms persist after discontinuation of use for a longer period among amphetamine users than among cocaine users who do not use amphetamines. Alcohol and Drug Use Among Adolescents and Young Adults 䊳Phyllis L. Ellickson, Joan S. Tucker, and David J. Klein, “Ten-Year Prospective Study of Public Health Problems Associated with Early Drinking,” Pediatrics, Vol. 111, No. 5, 2003, pp. 949–955. Examining a ten-year period beginning at grade 7, the authors found that early drinkers and experimenters were more likely to report academic problems, substance abuse, and delinquent behavior in both middle school and high school. By young adulthood (age 23), early alcohol use was associated with employment problems, substance abuse, and criminal and violent behavior. These findings suggest the need for early interventions that also address other public health problems (e.g., smoking and illicit drug use). 䊳Phyllis L. Ellickson, Michal Perlman, and David J. Klein, “Explaining Racial/Ethnic Differences in Smoking During the Transition to Adulthood,” Addictive Behaviors, Vol. 28, No. 5, 2003, pp. 915–931. This study examined the reasons for differences in smoking rates across racial/ethnic groups. At age 23, African Americans and Asians exhibited substantially lower rates of smoking than whites and Hispanics. These differences could be accounted for by controlling for social influences during high school, particularly exposure to prosmoking social influences (e.g., peers and siblings who smoked) and parental attitudes toward smoking. In contrast, social bonding variables, such as levels of religiosity and peer orientation (e.g., partying and dating), had a limited effect. 䊳Joan S. Tucker, Phyllis L. Ellickson, and David J. Klein, “Five-Year Prospective Study of Risk Factors for Daily Smoking in Adolescence Among Early Nonsmokers and Experimenters,” Journal of Applied Social Psychology, Vol. 32, No. 8, 2002, pp. 1588–1603. This study investigated the predictors of daily smoking by grade 12 for 7th grade nonsmokers and experimenters. Early experimenters scored consistently higher on predictors of future smoking. Common risk factors for both groups included being exposed at an early age to smoking by an important adult, earning lower grades, attending more elementary schools, and being younger for one’s grade cohort. For 7th grade nonsmokers, unique predictors of daily smoking included being exposed to pro-smoking social influences (e.g., cigarette offers and a sibling who smokes), binge drinking, and being female. For 7th grade experimenters, certain family factors (e.g., not having an intact nuclear family) were more important, and African Americans and Hispanics were also less likely to progress to daily smoking. parental support. Risk factors in young adulthood included younger age relative to one’s cohort and pro-smoking attitudes. 䊳Joan S. Tucker, Maria Orlando, and Phyllis L. Ellickson, “Patterns and Correlates of Binge Drinking Trajectories from Early Adolescence to Young Adulthood,” Health Psychology, Vol. 22, No. 1, 2003, pp. 79–87. Using data from 5,694 individuals who completed six surveys from ages 13 to 23, the authors identified five “developmental trajectories” of adolescent binge drinking: nonbingers; moderate stables, who had consistently low levels of bingeing; steady increasers, who increased from the lowest to highest level; adolescent bingers, whose early rise in bingeing was followed by a decrease to a moderate level; and early highs, who decreased from the highest level of bingeing to a high moderate level. The considerable diversity in binge drinking patterns has implications for development of adolescent substance use prevention programs. ■ 䊳Joan S. Tucker, Phyllis L. Ellickson, and David J. Klein, “Predictors of the Transition to Regular Smoking During Adolescence and Young Adulthood,” Journal of Adolescent Health, Vol. 32, No. 4, 2003, pp. 314–324. This study identified risk factors for adult smoking among youth in middle adolescence, late adolescence, and young adulthood. Risk factors during middle adolescence included being white, as well as pro-smoking attitudes, exposure to friends who smoke, low academic intentions, and less parental support. During late adolescence, being African American was protective, whereas risk factors included pro-smoking attitudes, drinking, a non-intact nuclear family, and less New People Visit Our Web Site and Join Our Email List! Matthew Chinman (Ph.D., Clinical/ Community Psychology) is an associate behavioral scientist at RAND and a health science specialist at the VISN-22 Mental Illness, Research, and Clinical Center at the West Los Angeles Veterans Administration (VA). Matt is a coauthor of the manual Getting to Outcomes 1999: Methods and Tools for Planning, Evaluation, and Accountability, which was honored as the best self-help manual by the American Evaluation Association. At RAND, Matt is currently leading a project to understand how the “Getting to Outcomes” system can help bridge the gap between science and practice in substance abuse prevention. At the VA, he is developing and evaluating psychosocial programming to assist the homeless, mentally ill, and those suffering from co-occurring substance abuse disorders. Matt has published on such topics as program evaluation methodology, empowerment evaluation, adolescent empowerment, coalition functioning, and peer support. He was previously an assistant professor in the Department of Psychiatry, Yale School of Medicine, and the Director of Program Evaluation Services at The Consultation Center in New Haven. The home page for the Drug Policy Research Center is located at www.rand.org/multi/dprc The web site includes a description of the DPRC, its research agenda, and the latest issue of our newsletter, as well as a subject index and abstracts of all DPRC publications. Send email to DPRC@rand.org and request to be added to the list for research updates and news on upcoming publications. Elizabeth D’Amico (Ph.D., Clinical Psychology) is a licensed clinical psychologist and RAND associate behavioral sci9 entist who is recognized for her developmentally focused prevention research with youth. Her areas of expertise include adolescent risk-taking behavior (e.g., substance use, driving after drinking, and unsafe sexual behavior), outcome expectancies, innovative interventions for youth, and treatment outcomes. Liz has developed and implemented several prevention programs for high school students that combine empirically based motivational techniques and individualized feedback and has also examined the escalation and de-escalation of high-risk drinking among adolescents in order to determine risk and protective factors for different drinking trajectories. She is currently leading a study focusing on help-seeking behavior among youth in the 6th, 7th, and 8th grades and on the establishment and standardization of a developmentally sensitive intervention program for this age group. Todd Helmus (Ph.D., Clinical Psychology) is a postdoctoral fellow at the DPRC and at the Integrated Substance Abuse Program at the University of California, Los Angeles. Todd’s current research endeavors include a meta-analysis on contingency management, an evaluation of California’s Proposition 36, and studies of methadone maintenance treatment and posttraumatic stress reactions. He has published on such topics as contingency management treatment interventions for drug dependence, the consequence of cooccurring cocaine and mood disorders, the relationship between sensation seeking and treatment outcomes, and the effect of experimentally induced anxiety states on drug self-administration. He has also conducted numerous diagnostic eval- 10 uations and maintained a psychotherapy caseload. Todd was the recipient of a Predoctoral Fellow National Research Service Award as well as an Early Career Investigator Award from the College on Problems of Drug Dependence. Allison J. Ober (M.S.W.) has recently joined RAND as a project associate. Prior to coming to RAND, she worked at the University of Colorado Health Sciences Center, where she served as protocol implementation coordinator and training director for the Rocky Mountain Region of the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA) Clinical Trials Network (CTN). The NIDA CTN is a nationwide, collaborative consortium of university researchers and drug and alcohol treatment providers who conduct multisite behavioral and pharmacological trials on drug and alcohol treatment and HIV/hepatitis C prevention protocols. Allison was a NIDA CTN–certified trainer on good clinical research practice and on a variety of standardized psychosocial and diagnostic assessments related to substance abuse and to HIV risk-taking. She has also worked as outreach supervisor and training and evaluation coordinator for several NIDA-funded HIV prevention studies, has recruited and trained research staff and conducted fidelity monitoring for behavioral interventions, and has developed training and operations manuals for research protocols related to HIV risk reduction and substance abuse. Stuart Olmsted (Ph.D., Biophysics) is an associate natural scientist at RAND. He earned his Ph.D. from Johns Hopkins University, where he studied and tested reproductive technologies, including microbicides and contraceptives for the prevention of sexually transmitted diseases including HIV and unwanted pregnancies. Stuart completed a postdoctoral fellowship at the Magee-Women’s Research Institute in Pittsburgh, where he studied microbiology. Since joining RAND in 2002, Stuart has worked in a wide range of policy areas, including bioterrorism, the Army smallpox vaccination program, future medical technologies for the Army and Navy, regional health care initiatives, and the human genome project. Barbara R. Panitch (M.A., Education) has worked in the field of policing for seven years. Her work focuses on improvements to the criminal justice system, with an emphasis on organizational change and on training and development in law enforcement agencies and courts. Barbara serves as project manager on an Experimental DUI [driving under the influence] Court grant from the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism and on a jail study for the Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department. She recently completed a training and culture study of the Los Angeles Police Department. Before coming to RAND, Barbara served as a project director at the Seattle Police Department and at the King County Drug Court. She has consulted with a dozen diverse criminal justice agencies. Advisory Board Lovida H. Coleman, Jr. (Chair) Partner, Sutherland, Asbill & Brennan Stephen M. Duncan Tone N. Grant President, Refco Group, Ltd. Pedro José Greer, Jr. Assistant Dean, Homeless and Poverty Education, University of Miami School of Medicine Terry Schell (Ph.D., Social Psychology) is an associate behavioral scientist at RAND. He has conducted numerous investigations into basic psychosocial issues such as human judgment under uncertainty, the unintended use of racial stereotypes, the effects of persuasion on behavior, and the predictors of aggression. He also brings substantial quantitative skills to RAND as a result of a twoyear postdoctoral traineeship in statistics and psychological measurement. Terry’s current projects include investigations of the long-term effects of community violence on mental health, the effects of alcohol advertising on adolescent drinking, the effectiveness of juvenile rehabilitation facilities, and the relationship between traumatic stress and substance use problems. Elizabeth Williams (M.A., Spanish Language and Culture) is a research assistant at RAND. She currently serves as project manager and interviewer on a study looking at partner-oriented treatment in methadone clinics. She is also a team member on RAND’s evaluation of Proposition 36 in Orange County and previously participated in studies of the Rio Hondo Court Experiment and DUI recidivism. Elizabeth holds a master’s degree in Spanish language and culture from Middlebury College, Middlebury, Vt. and a bachelor’s degree in sociology and Spanish from Colby College, Waterville, Me. Calvin Hill Fred C. Iklé Distinguished Scholar, Center for Strategic and International Studies David J. Mactas Norval Morris Julius Kreeger Professor of Law and Criminology School of Law, University of Chicago Amy Pascal Chairman, Columbia Pictures Janet L. Robbie Former Executive Vice President Miami Dolphins and Joe Robbie Stadium Cynthia Telles Director, Spanish Speaking Psychosocial Clinic Department of Psychiatry, University of California, Los Angeles Barbara R. Williams Vice President Emeritus, RAND Hubert Williams President, Police Foundation Judith B. Willis Health Care Consultant Richard B. Wolf James H. Woods Professor of Pharmacology and Psychology Department of Pharmacology, University of Michigan Former Advisory Board Members Lara Ward (M.A., English) serves as administrative assistant to Martin Iguchi and Audrey Burnam. Her responsibilities include coordinating the Lovida Coleman Jr. Speakers’ Series and updating the DPRC web site. Prior to coming to RAND, Laura served as a full-time sales assistant. She holds a master’s degree in English from California State University, Los Angeles, and a bachelor’s degree in English from San Francisco State University. Eunice Wong (Ph.D., Clinical Psychology) is a postdoctoral fellow at RAND working with Martin Iguchi. Her work at the DPRC is funded through the University of California, Los Angeles, Integrated Substance Abuse Programs. Eunice’s interests include the influence of clienttherapist interactions on treatment process and outcome, the development of culture-specific therapies, and the implementation of empirically supported interventions in community settings. She received her doctorate from the University of California, Santa Barbara. ■ James E. Burke Chairman, Partnership for a Drug-Free America Norman A. Carlson Senior Lecturer, Department of Sociology University of Minnesota Mathea Falco President, Drug Strategies Daniel P. Garcia Herbert D. Kleber Professor, Department of Psychiatry Columbia University P. Michael Timpane Senior Advisor for Education Policy, RAND The Honorable John P. White Lecturer in Public Policy, John F. Kennedy School of Government; Senior Partner, Global Technologies Partners James Q. Wilson Collins Professor of Management The John E. Anderson Graduate School of Management, University of California, Los Angeles 11 2003–2004 Lovida Coleman, Jr., Speakers’ Series Science and Drug Policy This series provides a forum for decisionmakers and scientists to discuss policies concerning drug supply demand and control. February 7, 2003 Chris McCarty, survey director of the University of Florida Survey Research Center “Egocentric Network Analysis” August 19, 2003 Marsha Rosenbaum, director of the Safety First Drug Education Project and director of the San Francisco office of the Drug Policy Alliance “Getting Real About Teens and Drugs” September 11, 2003 Warren Bickel, professor of psychiatry and psychology, and interim chair of the Department of Psychiatry, University of Vermont “Computer-Based Drug Abuse Prevention for Adolescents: A Multisite Evaluation” November 3, 2003 Thomas Valente, director of the Master of Public Health Program at the University of Southern California’s Department of Preventative Medicine “Using Network Analysis to Create More Effective Interventions” February 13, 2004 David Vlahov, director of the Center for Urban Epidemiologic Studies (CUES) at The New York Academy of Medicine and adjunct professor of public health at the Joseph L. Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University Topic to be announced The 2003 Speaker Series is held at RAND, 1700 Main Street, Santa Monica, California. For more information, call Lara Ward at (310) 393-0411, ext. 6482. ■ RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND® is a registered trademark. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of its research sponsors. The Drug Policy Research Center, established in 1989, is supported by The Ford Foundation, other foundations, government agencies, corporations, and individuals. THE RAND DRUG POLICY RESEARCH CENTER 12 • 1700 MAIN STREET, P.O. BOX 2138, SANTA MONICA, CA 90407-2138 CP-201 (10/03)