ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet www.itu.int/portableinternet ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet New ITU report (6th edition in series) Table of Contents 1. Introduction 2. Portable Internet technologies 3. Market trends 4. Policy and regulation 5. A tool for bridging the digital divide 6. The future of portable Internet technologies 7. The information society and human factors Statistical tables 220 pages RELEASE DATE: 6 September 2004 2 ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet 3 The Portable Internet Speed Broadband WLAN A new market opportunity, situated between the high speeds of fixed-line broadband and the high mobility of 3G Market opportunity for new wireless technologies IMT -2000 Source: ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet. Mobility ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet Advanced wireless technologies Source: ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet. Long Range Medium Range Short Range • IMT -2000 (3G) • WLAN • Bluetooth • WiMax IEEE 802.16 • Wi-Fi IEEE 802.11b • IEEE 802.20 • IEEE 802.11a • HiperMAN • IEEE 802.11g • Satellite • IEEE 802.11i • HAPS/LAPS • Free space optics • LMDS • HiperLAN2 • MMDS •Ultra wideband • RFID •ZigBee 4 ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet 5 Portable Internet characteristics ! Portable " Based on advanced wireless technologies, including 3G mobile and Wireless LAN ! High-Speed " Providing speeds of at least 256 kbit/s up to >50 Mbit/s ! Large Storage Users (millions) and penetration per 100 pop. 1'400 Mobile subscribers 1'200 Internet users 1'000 Mobile penetration 800 Internet penetration 600 25 20 15 10 400 5 200 " Multi-gigabyte storage capacity allowing storage of movies, music, files etc ! Everything over IP " Allowing digital data exchange between services and apps 0 0 1994 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 2003 “Virtually all of the growth in the global telecoms sector over the past decade has come from mobile communications and the Internet” 6 ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet The Market Opportunity 0.01 0.1 1 10 Mobile penetration 100 1000 A. High fixed/Low mobile 12 economies with 197.2 million inhabitantsDevelopment B. High/high 116 + 3.3 bn 100 path of 1990s Development path of 1980s 1 Note: Each dot represents one economy. A log scale is used. Source: ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet. 10 Fixed penetration 1000 C. Low/low 73 + 2.6 bn D. Low fixed/high mobile: 0.1 Development 14 economies with path 156.8ofm2000s inhabitants 0.01 ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet Fixed-line broadband: Top 15 Korea (Rep.) HK, China Canada Iceland Taiwan, China Denmark DSL Cable Modems Other Belgium Japan Netherlands Switzerland Broadband subscribers per 100 inhabitants, 1 January 2004 Sweden Singapore USA Source: ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet. Finland Norway 0 5 10 15 20 25 7 ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet 8 3G mobile (IMT-2000) HK, China, 0.7% UK, 3.7% CDMA 1xEV-DO subscribers Other WCDMA, 2.0% Italy, 6.7% Japan, 31.8% W-CDMA subscribers Korea 1xEV-DO, 53.7% Other Korea, W-CDMA EVDO, 0.3% 1.0% Estimated total at 30 June 2004 = 14.9 million By the middle of 2004, there were 118 million 3G subscribers worldwide Korea, 21.8% Rest of the world, 63.9% Japan, 14.3% CDMA 1x subscribers Source: ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet. Estimated total at 30 June 2004 = 103 million ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet 9 WiMAX Development ! WiMAX equipment should appear in three stages: Outdoor mounted Early 2005 Indoor installed Late 2005 Built into devices 2006 Source: Intel ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet 10 The long and short of WiMAX and Wi-Fi “One wireless technology to reach remote areas, another to share the connection once it’s there” ! Long range " Technologies such as WiMax (IEEE 802.16a) can transport large amounts of data over long distances. WiMax should be able to carry a 70 Mbit/s connection over 50 km. ! Short range " WLAN technologies such as Wi-Fi (IEEE 802.11b) can spread the connection over a short distance from the “landing spot” of a longrange connection. ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet The portable Internet and multimedia ! Change in the way we think about streaming content " Less emphasis on video-on-demand " More emphasis on one-to-many broadcasting via satellite to portable devices Japan and Korea’s new digital media band satellite will beam 40 Korean and 70 Japanese TV channels to mobile phones and PDAs 11 ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet Ultra-wide band New technology to allow devices to communicate at high speeds, across large frequency swaths, but at very low power. 12 ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet Mesh networks Mesh networks could drastically improve the reach and bandwidth of wireless networks by employing all users as nodes to pass traffic. Source: Nokia 13 ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet ZigBee – micro networks 14 ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet Broadband prices Broadband m onthly0sub. prices, 500 1000 US$, 1500 July 20002004 2500 China 1 Lithuania 2 Jordan 3 Slovak Republic 4 Japan 5 Belarus 6 Macao, China 7 Taiw an, China 8 Croatia 9 Australia 10 Sri Lanka 11 Israel 12 Korea (Rep.) 13 Czech Republic 14 Cyprus 15 Ukraine 16 Greece 17 Hong Kong, China 18 Malaysia 19 Brazil 20 Estonia 21 Senegal 22 Netherlands 23 Germany 24 Slovenia 25 French Guiana 26 Mexico 27 New Zealand 28 Barbados 29 Morocco 30 5 12 2 56 5 12 2 56 10 2 4 5 12 15 0 0 2 56 384 2 56 5 12 2 56 2048 5 12 2 56 5 12 2 56 640 5 12 300 5 12 2 56 5 12 10 0 0 10 2 4 5 12 2 56 400 2 56 2 56 0 Source: ITU research 9.66 13.64 Overall 14.08 14.77 subscription 16.78 17.43 charges are 18.68 important 19.39 21.01 21.13 21.71 23.58 23.93 24.77 25.00 25.00 25.30 25.38 26.05 26.07 26.64 26.92 27.71 27.71 29.57 30.12 30.61 31.21 31.50 32.97 10 20 30 40 Cost 100 kbit/s as Japan 1 Sw eden 2 Korea (Rep.) 3 Taiw an, China 4 Hong Kong, China United States 6 Canada 7 Belgium 8 Singapore 9 Sw itzerland 10 Germany 11 Denmark 12 Norw ay 13 Netherlands 14 Finland 15 Australia 16 Italy 17 France 18 Israel 19 United Kingdom 20 Luxembourg 21 Slovenia 22 Austria 23 Iceland 24 Ireland 25 Bahamas 26 New Zealand 27 Czech Republic 28 Greece 29 Estonia 30 % of m onthly incom e 0.00 0.01 0.02 But factoring in 0.04 the speed of the 0.04 0.06 connection and 0.06 income is the 0.07 more telling story 0.09 0.10 0.13 0.15 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.20 0.24 0.26 0.28 0.29 0.31 0.38 0.42 0.43 0.55 0.86 0.86 0.92 16 ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet The digital divide – not the only divide For individuals For countries Socio-economic status Development stage Gender Infrastructure Age, life stage Public policy Language/ethnic status Skills mix Rural/urban location Size of domestic market Skills balance Location relative to trading partners 17 ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet 18 Digital divide: some progress Internet Mobile Mobile (million) Internet users (million) 100% 80% 100% 20 0.4 239 Developing 60% 3 80 80% 608 Developing 60% 10 40% 161 499 Developed 40% 20% 0% 0% 1998 2003 244 734 20% 1993 31 1993 1998 2003 Note: Developed economies account for roughly 14% of the world’s population but 75% of world income. Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database Developed ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet Endless catch-up 19 Internet users per 100 inhab., by incom e level 80 70 60 50 High Upper middle Low er middle Low 40 Just as developing economies start making progress in rolling out a particular technology, another appears in richer economies and the cycle repeats. 30 20 10 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Broadband subs per 100 inhab., by incom e level 10 9 8 7 6 Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database 5 4 3 2 1 0 2000 High Upper middle Low er middle Low 2001 2002 2003 ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet 20 Beyond infrastructure deployment ! Education and awareness " Fostering entrepreneurship ! Affordability " Encourage pre-paid services also for mobile data ! Local and community-based initiatives ! Content development " Keeping it locally relevant ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet 21 The portable Internet and the human factor ! Health concerns and opportunities ! Blurring boundaries between the public and private sphere ! The new “digital persona” ! Protecting the consumer ! Taking care of a tech-savvy youth culture ! A peek at the future today, e.g. " A high-tech identity (e.g. injectable RFID) " Enhancing the five human senses ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet New ITU Report: The Portable Internet Available Now! 1. Introduction 2. Portable Internet technologies 3. Market trends 4. Policy and regulation 5. A tool for bridging the digital divide 6. The future of portable Internet technologies 7. The information society and the human factor Statistical tables www.itu.int/portableinternet 22