ITU Internet Reports 2004:
The Portable Internet
www.itu.int/portableinternet
ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet
New ITU report (6th edition in series)
Table of Contents
1. Introduction
2. Portable Internet technologies
3. Market trends
4. Policy and regulation
5. A tool for bridging the digital divide
6. The future of portable Internet technologies
7. The information society and human factors
Statistical tables
220 pages
RELEASE DATE: 6 September 2004
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ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet
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The Portable Internet
Speed
Broadband
WLAN
A new market opportunity,
situated between the high
speeds of fixed-line
broadband and the high
mobility of 3G
Market opportunity
for new wireless
technologies
IMT -2000
Source:
ITU Internet
Reports 2004:
The Portable
Internet.
Mobility
ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet
Advanced wireless technologies
Source:
ITU Internet
Reports 2004:
The Portable
Internet.
Long Range
Medium Range
Short Range
• IMT -2000 (3G)
• WLAN
• Bluetooth
• WiMax IEEE 802.16
• Wi-Fi IEEE 802.11b
• IEEE 802.20
• IEEE 802.11a
• HiperMAN
• IEEE 802.11g
• Satellite
• IEEE 802.11i
• HAPS/LAPS
• Free space optics
• LMDS
• HiperLAN2
• MMDS
•Ultra wideband
• RFID
•ZigBee
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ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet
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Portable Internet characteristics
! Portable
" Based on advanced wireless
technologies, including 3G
mobile and Wireless LAN
! High-Speed
" Providing speeds of at least
256 kbit/s up to >50 Mbit/s
! Large Storage
Users (millions) and penetration per 100 pop.
1'400
Mobile subscribers
1'200
Internet users
1'000
Mobile penetration
800
Internet penetration
600
25
20
15
10
400
5
200
" Multi-gigabyte storage
capacity allowing storage of
movies, music, files etc
! Everything over IP
" Allowing digital data exchange
between services and apps
0
0
1994 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 2003
“Virtually all of the growth in the global telecoms
sector over the past decade has come from
mobile communications and the Internet”
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ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet
The Market Opportunity
0.01
0.1
1
10
Mobile penetration
100
1000
A. High fixed/Low mobile
12 economies with
197.2 million inhabitantsDevelopment
B. High/high
116 + 3.3 bn
100
path of 1990s
Development
path of 1980s
1
Note: Each dot
represents one
economy. A log
scale is used.
Source:
ITU Internet
Reports 2004:
The Portable
Internet.
10
Fixed penetration
1000
C. Low/low
73 + 2.6 bn
D. Low fixed/high
mobile: 0.1
Development
14 economies with
path
156.8ofm2000s
inhabitants
0.01
ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet
Fixed-line broadband: Top 15
Korea (Rep.)
HK, China
Canada
Iceland
Taiwan, China
Denmark
DSL
Cable Modems
Other
Belgium
Japan
Netherlands
Switzerland
Broadband
subscribers per
100 inhabitants,
1 January 2004
Sweden
Singapore
USA
Source:
ITU Internet
Reports 2004:
The Portable
Internet.
Finland
Norway
0
5
10
15
20
25
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ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet
8
3G mobile (IMT-2000)
HK, China,
0.7%
UK, 3.7%
CDMA 1xEV-DO subscribers
Other
WCDMA,
2.0%
Italy, 6.7%
Japan,
31.8%
W-CDMA
subscribers
Korea
1xEV-DO,
53.7%
Other
Korea, W-CDMA
EVDO,
0.3%
1.0%
Estimated total at 30 June 2004 = 14.9 million
By the middle of 2004,
there were 118 million
3G subscribers
worldwide
Korea,
21.8%
Rest of the
world,
63.9%
Japan,
14.3%
CDMA 1x subscribers
Source: ITU Internet Reports
2004: The Portable Internet.
Estimated total at 30 June 2004 = 103 million
ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet
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WiMAX Development
! WiMAX equipment should appear in three
stages:
Outdoor mounted
Early 2005
Indoor installed
Late 2005
Built into devices
2006
Source: Intel
ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet
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The long and short of
WiMAX and Wi-Fi
“One wireless technology to reach remote areas, another to share the
connection once it’s there”
! Long range
" Technologies such as
WiMax (IEEE 802.16a)
can transport large
amounts of data over
long distances. WiMax
should be able to carry
a 70 Mbit/s connection
over 50 km.
! Short range
" WLAN technologies such
as Wi-Fi (IEEE 802.11b)
can spread the
connection over a short
distance from the
“landing spot” of a longrange connection.
ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet
The portable Internet and
multimedia
! Change in the way we think about
streaming content
" Less emphasis on video-on-demand
" More emphasis on one-to-many broadcasting
via satellite to portable devices
Japan and Korea’s new digital
media band satellite will beam
40 Korean and 70 Japanese
TV channels to mobile phones
and PDAs
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ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet
Ultra-wide band
New technology to allow devices to communicate at high speeds,
across large frequency swaths, but at very low power.
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ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet
Mesh networks
Mesh networks could drastically improve the reach and bandwidth of
wireless networks by employing all users as nodes to pass traffic.
Source: Nokia
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ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet
ZigBee – micro networks
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ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet
Broadband prices
Broadband m onthly0sub.
prices,
500
1000 US$,
1500 July
20002004
2500
China 1
Lithuania 2
Jordan 3
Slovak Republic 4
Japan 5
Belarus 6
Macao, China 7
Taiw an, China 8
Croatia 9
Australia 10
Sri Lanka 11
Israel 12
Korea (Rep.) 13
Czech Republic 14
Cyprus 15
Ukraine 16
Greece 17
Hong Kong, China 18
Malaysia 19
Brazil 20
Estonia 21
Senegal 22
Netherlands 23
Germany 24
Slovenia 25
French Guiana 26
Mexico 27
New Zealand 28
Barbados 29
Morocco 30
5 12
2 56
5 12
2 56
10 2 4
5 12
15 0 0
2 56
384
2 56
5 12
2 56
2048
5 12
2 56
5 12
2 56
640
5 12
300
5 12
2 56
5 12
10 0 0
10 2 4
5 12
2 56
400
2 56
2 56
0
Source: ITU research
9.66
13.64
Overall
14.08
14.77
subscription
16.78
17.43 charges are
18.68 important
19.39
21.01
21.13
21.71
23.58
23.93
24.77
25.00
25.00
25.30
25.38
26.05
26.07
26.64
26.92
27.71
27.71
29.57
30.12
30.61
31.21
31.50
32.97
10
20
30
40
Cost 100 kbit/s as
Japan 1
Sw eden 2
Korea (Rep.) 3
Taiw an, China 4
Hong Kong, China
United States 6
Canada 7
Belgium 8
Singapore 9
Sw itzerland 10
Germany 11
Denmark 12
Norw ay 13
Netherlands 14
Finland 15
Australia 16
Italy 17
France 18
Israel 19
United Kingdom 20
Luxembourg 21
Slovenia 22
Austria 23
Iceland 24
Ireland 25
Bahamas 26
New Zealand 27
Czech Republic 28
Greece 29
Estonia 30
% of m onthly incom e
0.00
0.01
0.02
But factoring in
0.04
the speed of the
0.04
0.06
connection and
0.06
income is the
0.07
more telling story
0.09
0.10
0.13
0.15
0.17
0.17
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.20
0.24
0.26
0.28
0.29
0.31
0.38
0.42
0.43
0.55
0.86
0.86
0.92
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ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet
The digital divide –
not the only divide
For individuals
For countries
Socio-economic status
Development stage
Gender
Infrastructure
Age, life stage
Public policy
Language/ethnic status
Skills mix
Rural/urban location
Size of domestic market
Skills balance
Location relative to trading partners
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ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet
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Digital divide: some progress
Internet
Mobile
Mobile (million)
Internet users (million)
100%
80%
100%
20
0.4
239
Developing
60%
3
80
80%
608
Developing
60%
10
40%
161
499
Developed
40%
20%
0%
0%
1998
2003
244
734
20%
1993
31
1993
1998
2003
Note: Developed economies account for roughly 14% of the world’s population but 75% of world income.
Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database
Developed
ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet
Endless
catch-up
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Internet users per 100 inhab., by incom e level
80
70
60
50
High
Upper middle
Low er middle
Low
40
Just as developing economies
start making progress in rolling
out a particular technology,
another appears in richer
economies and the cycle
repeats.
30
20
10
0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Broadband subs per 100 inhab., by incom e level
10
9
8
7
6
Source:
ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database
5
4
3
2
1
0
2000
High
Upper middle
Low er middle
Low
2001
2002
2003
ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet
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Beyond infrastructure deployment
! Education and awareness
" Fostering
entrepreneurship
! Affordability
" Encourage pre-paid
services also for mobile
data
! Local and community-based initiatives
! Content development
" Keeping it locally relevant
ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet
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The portable Internet and the
human factor
! Health concerns and opportunities
! Blurring boundaries between the public and
private sphere
! The new “digital persona”
! Protecting the consumer
! Taking care of a tech-savvy youth culture
! A peek at the future today, e.g.
" A high-tech identity (e.g. injectable RFID)
" Enhancing the five human senses
ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet
New ITU Report: The Portable Internet
Available Now!
1. Introduction
2. Portable Internet technologies
3. Market trends
4. Policy and regulation
5. A tool for bridging the digital divide
6. The future of portable Internet technologies
7. The information society and the human factor
Statistical tables
www.itu.int/portableinternet
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