Coastal Pathfinder Programme Housing
Market Appraisal of Happisburgh
2000 to 2010
December 2010
North Norfolk District Council
Housing Market Appraisal – 2000-2010
Contents
Housing Market Appraisal
Introduction
1.1 Background
1.2 Objectives
3
3
3
2
Property Market Performance
2.1 Wider Market
2.2 Local Markets
2.3 Overview
5
5
8
12
3
Market Sentiment
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Wider Market Sentiment
3.3 Local Sentiment
15
15
15
16
4
Conclusions
21
1
Appendix 1
Methodology, Data Sources & Limitations
Appendix 2
Background Data
Appendix 3
Questionnaire and Responses
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Housing Market Appraisal – 2000-2010
1.
Introduction
1.1
Background
1.1.1
The change in coastal policy articulated in the Draft Kelling to Lowestoft
Shoreline Management Plan (SMP) published in late 2004 reflected the
practicalities of coastal erosion but also had a range of consequences for The
Council and coastal communities.
1.1.2
The Pathfinder Coastal Change Programme offers an opportunity to address
some of these consequences, particularly for property owners most affected
by coastal change.
1.1.3
There is a general perception that this Draft SMP has impacted property
values and saleability of properties in the locations where coastal erosion is
most severe. However the extent of the blight created by the coastal erosion
and the Draft SMP on these properties is at present unknown. North Norfolk
District Council (NNDC) has therefore commissioned an appraisal of the
housing market to assess the extent of the SMP’s impact on Happisburgh.
1.2
Objectives
1.2.1
The principal objectives of the study are to assess the impact of the change
in coastal policy, as foreshadowed in the draft Shoreline Management Plan,
on the housing market in Happisburgh.
1.2.2
To that end the study was originally designed to:
Assess the housing market between 2000 and 2010 in the settlement of
Happisburgh, specifically identifying differences between properties
within the 100 year erosion epoch, within the main settlement of
Happisburgh, in the non-coastal areas of Happisburgh and its hinterland
1-2 miles inland.
Assess the housing market between 2000-2010 in the following two local
areas: An area unaffected by blight (North Walsham and its hinterland)
An alternative coastal settlement (Overstrand)
Compare the data gathered from Happisburgh with the other two local
areas and draw definitive conclusions regarding market trends,
specifically identifying any impacts of the draft SMP.
Identify the cause of any other influences which may have affected
differences in the local housing market in the area during these time
frames.
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Housing Market Appraisal – 2000-2010
Identify if the coastal erosion affected the housing market in
Happisburgh prior to the SMP.
1.2.3
In addition, it was intended that the analysis should differentiate between
property types and tenure changes and compare sale prices, valuations and
length of time on the market.
1.2.4
However, initial research showed that there were significant barriers to very
detailed analysis of this type. The scope and volume of information available
does not allow for comprehensive analysis at the level of data initially
envisaged. In particular data samples at Happisburgh, and to a lesser extent
Overstrand, are too small to allow statistically robust analysis. Further
information on length of marketing periods and the variance between asking
price and eventual sale price are not held on any publicly available database.
1.2.5
Consequently the study has been refocused to provide a broad spectrum
quantitative analysis of the housing markets in Happisburgh, Overstrand and
North Walsham.
1.2.6
This has been supplemented by secondary data recorded from a telephone
survey of local estate agents.
1.2.7
The revised methodology for the appraisal is set out in Appendix 1.
1.2.8
The report firstly considers the performance of the property market at
national, regional and county level, setting a wider economic and market
context for the affected areas and then goes on to review performance in the
three settlements. In both cases it reviews the market both in terms of
volume and price. It then reviews market sentiment both at a national level
and more locally as informed by the telephone survey.
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2
Property Market Performance
2.1
Wider Market
2.1.1
Volume of Sales
Figure 1
Volume of Annual Sales Transactions in the Wider Markets
Volume of Annual Sales Transactions
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
Number of Transactions
England and Wales
East
Norfolk
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Year
2006
2007
2008
2009
2.1.1.1
Figure 1 shows the number of transactions year on year from 2000-10 in the
wider markets showing the correlation between England and Wales, the East
and Norfolk. Data on absolute sales numbers is provided in Appendix 2.
2.1.1.2
All three markets appear to follow similar trends with increases in sales year
on year in 2001, 2002 (with the exception of Norfolk), 2004, 2006 and 2010
(with the exception of England and Wales).
2.1.1.3
There were over one million recorded transactions in England and Wales in
each year from 2000 to 2007; with the volume falling below this figure in
2008. The highest number of transactions occurred in 2002, followed by
2006 and the lowest in 2009.
2.1.1.4
The East region also sees the significant fall in sales quantities in 2008,
falling below 100,000 for the first time in the decade. Again 2002 had the
highest number of sales, followed by 2006 and the lowest number of
transactions was in 2008 but with higher volumes traded again in 2009.
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2.1.1.5
In Norfolk, 2006 had highest sales volume, followed by 2007 and as with the
East region and England and Wales, 2008 had the lowest number of
transactions, in common with the East this was followed by an increase in
2009.
2.1.1.6
Generally there is a marked similarity in performance between the three
samples other than in 2002 where Norfolk saw a 2% fall in the number of
transactions from the following year compared to a 9% increase across
England and Wales and a 4% increase across the East region. 2009 also
shows a lack of consistency where sales volume from the previous year was
down 1% across England and Wales but up 9% in the East and 17% across
Norfolk reflecting the different pace of the recovery around the country.
2.1.1.7
Data for 2010 cannot yet be analysed as full year sales figures are not yet
available .
2.1.2
Price Movement
2.1.2.1
England and Wales had an average annual property price of £142,171 for the
period ranging from its lowest price of £83,467 in 2000 to its highest in
£179,580 in 2007. While prices fell 2007-2009, they increased in 2010.
Figure 2
Average Annual Property Price in the Wider Markets
Average Annual Property Price in Wider Markets 2000-10
£200,000
£180,000
£160,000
Average price (£)
£140,000
£120,000
England and Wales
East
Norfolk
£100,000
£80,000
£60,000
£40,000
£20,000
£0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Year
2.1.2.2
The East has an average annual property price over the period of £153,223
ranging from its peak of £189,500 in 2007 to the lowest value of £91,376 in
2000. While prices fell 2007-2009, they increased in 2010.
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2.1.2.3
Norfolk has an average annual property price of £ 127,675 for the period
ranging from its lowest price in 2000 of £69,495 to its highest in 2007 of
£162,979. Again, while prices fell 2007-2009, they increased in 2010.
2.1.2.4
Throughout the period, the East maintained the highest annual average
price, followed by England and Wales and then Norfolk. However, while
Norfolk maintains the lowest average price over this 10 year period, it also
sees the biggest percentage increase in price of the three areas followed by
England and Wales and then the East.
2.1.2.5
Overall from 2000 to 2010, the average price across all property in the wider
markets increased, peaking in 2007 when prices began to drop until signs of
recovery in 2010 when they rose again.
2.1.2.6
Figures for the annual percentage change in property sales price are
contained within table 5 in Appendix 2.
2.1.2.7
As illustrated in Figure 3, annual percentage change in prices follow similar
trends in most years in each of the three regions, with an overall percentage
difference of no more than 6% in each year. While property prices increase
year on year until 2007 (after which they fall), they increase at a lesser rate
from 2003 onwards, bar 2006/2007 where the market shows a higher
percentage increase from the year before.
Figure 3
Percentage Change in Annual Sales Price
Percentge change in Annual Average Price in Wider Market 2000-10
30%
25%
20%
Percentage change %
15%
10%
England and Wales
East
Norfolk
5%
0%
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
-5%
-10%
-15%
Year
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2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
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Housing Market Appraisal – 2000-2010
2.1.2.8
Although having the lowest average sales value, Norfolk shows best
performance over the term, with the biggest percentage changes in value in
6 of the 10 years. Norfolk’s strong performance sees the gap in values
between the East and England and Wales narrow by 2010.
2.2
Local Markets
2.2.1
Introduction
2.2.1.1
The purpose of this report is to assess the impact of coastal erosion and the
2004 Draft SMP on Happisburgh housing market.
2.2.1.2
The relatively limited data available and the limited number of actual and
potential transactions does not allow for comparison between properties
within the 100 erosion epoch and the rest of Happisburgh. Therefore the
following section describes and analyses data on average house prices and
number of sales transactions over from 2000 to 2010 for the Happisburgh
housing market as a whole.
2.2.1.3
In addition to general housing market trends in Happisburgh, to distinguish
between changes due to local market conditions and those potentially due to
the coastal erosion and Draft SMP, a comparison has been made with two
other local areas, North Walsham, which is an inland location which should
be unfettered by coastal erosion or the SMP and Overstrand, another coastal
location that is considered to be of less risk from erosion than Happisburgh,
therefore highlighting any changes potentially caused by these two factors.
2.2.2
Volume of Sales
Figure 4
Volume of Annual Sales Transactions in the Local Markets
Annual Volume of Transactions
450
400
350
300
250
Number of Transactions
North Walsham
Overstrand
Happisburgh
200
150
100
50
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Year
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2007
2008
2009
North Norfolk District Council
Housing Market Appraisal – 2000-2010
2.2.2.1.
The above diagram plots the change in the number of sales transactions year
on year from 2000-10 in the local markets showing the correlation between
North Walsham, Overstrand and Happisburgh.
2.2.2.2.
The average volume of transactions in North Walsham over the period was
330 per annum ranging from its peak of 445 in 2001 to the lowest number of
transactions of 167 in 2005. Increases in the number of transactions from
the previous years occurred in 2001, 2004, 2006, 2007 and 2009.
2.2.2.3.
The average volume of sales in Overstrand over the period was 23.3 per
annum ranging from its peak in 2002 and 2006 of 33 to the lowest number
of transactions of 12 in 2008. Increases in the number of transactions from
the previous years occurred in 2002, 2006 and 2009
2.2.2.4.
In Happisburgh, the average volume of sales over the period was 10.1 per
annum ranging from its peak of 17 in 2006 to its lowest number of 4 in 2008.
Increases in the number of transactions from the previous years occurred in
2001, 2002, 2006 and 2009
Figure 5
Annual Percentage Change in number of transactions in Local Markets
Percentage Change in Number of Transactions Annually in Local Markets 2000-10
200%
150%
% Change
100%
North Walsham
Overstrand
Happisburgh
50%
0%
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
-50%
-100%
Year
2.2.2.5.
In North Walsham, the biggest percentage increase was in 2005-2006 and
the biggest fall in sales from the previous year was 2004-05.
2.2.2.6.
Overstrand saw the biggest percentage increase in the number of
transactions year on year in 2005-06 and the biggest fall in sales from the
previous year was 2007-08.
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Housing Market Appraisal – 2000-2010
2.2.2.7.
In Happisburgh, the biggest percentage increase in transactions year on year
was in 2005-6 and the biggest fall in sales from the previous year was 200708.
2.2.2.8.
As is evident from Figure 5, overall, there is considerable variation in
percentage change in volume of sales between the three locations.
However, whilst more variable the peak-trough pattern in number of
transactions is evident as is also seen in the wider markets.
2.2.3
Price Movement
Figure 6
Average Annual Sales Prices
Average Annual Sale Price in Local Markets 2000-10
£300,000
£250,000
Average Price (£)
£200,000
North Walsham
Overstrand
Happisburgh
£150,000
£100,000
£50,000
£0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Year
2.2.3.1.
Average annual sales price in North Walsham saw an overall increase over
the 10 year period although a fall in value was seen in 2009. The average
annual property price was £143,552 for the period ranging from its lowest
price of £75,701 in 2000 to its highest in £179,740 in 2008.
2.2.3.2.
Average annual sales price on Overstrand increased over the 10 year period
however falls in value were seen in 2007, 2008 and 2009. Overstrand has an
average annual property price over the period of £179,384 ranging from its
peek of £243,188 in 2010 to the lowest value of £83,923 in 2000.
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Housing Market Appraisal – 2000-2010
2.2.3.3.
The average annual sales figure for Happisburgh from 2000-10 showed more
erratic changes than the other two area which is to be expected due to the
limited data. While overall property prices increased over the period,
however lower average values were seen in 2001, 2005, 2006, 2008 and
2009. Happisburgh has an average annual property price of £151,159 for
the period ranging from its lowest price in 2001 of £92,921 to its highest in
2007 of £200,278.
2.2.3.4.
While Happisburgh began with the highest value in 2000, it was overtaken by
Overstrand by 2001 which continued to maintain the highest value over the
period. Annual fluctuations saw North Walsham and Happisburgh fluctuate
between second and third highest value throughout the period with
Happisburgh having the lowest annual average sales price out of the three
locations in 2005, 2006, 2008 and 2009.
Figure 7
Annual Percentage Change in Average Property Price
Percentage Change in Average Price in Local Markets 2000-10
40%
30%
Percentage Change (%)
20%
10%
North Walsham
Overstrand
Happisburgh
0%
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-100
-10%
-20%
-30%
Year
2.2.3.5.
In North Walsham, increases were seen in every year except for 2009, the
biggest percentage increase being in 2002 and the smallest in 2008.
2.2.3.6.
In Overstrand, the biggest percentage increase was in 2009-10 and the
smallest in 2005-06. Falls in value on previous year were seen in 2007, 2008
and 2009. The biggest fall in values was seen in 2008-09
2.2.3.7.
Happisburgh was the only area out of the three to see a fall in value 200001. Falls in average sale price were also seen in 2005, 2006, 2008 and 2009.
The biggest percentage fall was seen in 2000-2001 and the biggest
percentage increase in 2001-2002.
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2.2.3.8.
When looking at the both Figures 5 and 6 and the Table 5 in Appendix Two
Happisburgh shows unusually high increases in sales value in 2007 and 2010.
If referring back to the raw data, some sales in 2007 seem abnormally high
in comparison to other years. Similarly in 2010 there is one high value
transaction which brings the overall average up. If these anomalies are
discounted those two years would show average values below North
Walsham, the impact of these adjustments are shown in Figure 8 below.
Figure 8
Adjusted Average
anomalies)
Annual
Sales
Price
(excluding
Happisburgh
Average annual Price (discounting abnormal results from Happisburgh)
£300,000
£250,000
Price
£200,000
North Walsham
Overstrand
Happisburgh
£150,000
£100,000
£50,000
£0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Year
2.2.3.9.
Trends for Happisburgh, as indicated on the figures and taking the above
mentioned anomalies into account suggest that from 2003-2006, this market
plateaus, falling behind all other markets which are steadily increasing. Pre
2003, the Happisburgh market appeared to be sitting in between Overstrand
and North Walsham and following similar trends.
2.3
Overview
2.3.1
Sales Volume
2.3.1.1.
In terms of number of sales transactions, the trends in Happisburgh seem to
most closely follow Overstrand rather than North Walsham where rises and
falls relate more to each other throughout the 10 year periods.
2.3.1.2.
However, the small size of some data-sets makes absolute interpretation
difficult although it is possible to track some trends.
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2.3.1.3.
All locations follow a similar peak trough pattern in annual percentage
change in the number of sales transactions
2.3.1.4.
It is important to note that in 2003-04, the two coastal areas, particularly
Happisburgh, saw large decreases in the number of transactions on previous
years in relation to the other areas which generally saw increases in the
number of transactions for the same period. However, it should also be
noted that the following year North Walsham and Overstrand experienced a
large fall in sales from the previous year where Happisburgh remained
constant.
2.3.1.5.
2008-09 showed a further fall in the number of transactions on the previous
year for England and Wales, however the East across the board moved
against this trend with North Walsham and Overstrand showing much greater
increases.
While also increasing, Happisburgh’s lag behind its local
counterparts could be the sign of a blighted market which would show slower
signs of recovery.
2.3.1.6.
Full data-sets are not yet available for 2010.
2.3.2
Sales Price
2.3.2.1
In the local markets, over the 10 year period, Overstrand saw the biggest
increase in average annual sale price, followed by North Walsham and then
Happisburgh whose increase was nearly half of that of North Walsham.
Where prices in Happisburgh began around 28% more than that of
Overstrand in 2000, by 2010, Overstrand prices ended 27% higher than
Happisburgh. Happisburgh saw the smallest increase in sales price across the
markets over the period.
2.3.2.2
Over the period Norfolk and the local markets performed better than England
and Wales with the exception of Happisburgh which was the poorest
performer overall,
2.3.2.3
There is some consistency across all samples, although the smaller data sets
show slightly more volatile results, except for Happisburgh with its plateau in
2003-2006. If data were smoothed thereafter, ironing out the suspected
anomalies, it would likely show a flatter market with smaller increases and
values remaining below North Walsham 2006-2010.
2.3.2.3.
There are seasonal variations in sales and prices. The market tends to slow
down in winter months. As 2010 figures do not encompass an entire year, it
is likely the values reported will fall once remaining months figures are
added.
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2.3.2.4.
In summary, local markets are open to more fluctuations likely due to smaller
data sets. However, it appears that they have generally outperformed the
broader markets in terms of average property price and the scale of
increases in price where percentage changes were generally more marked
than in the broader market.
2.3.2.5.
The Eastern Region shows the best recovery after the recession in both price
increases and percentage increase in sales transactions.
2.3.2.6.
Happisburgh saw a much smaller increase in price and percentage change in
transactions in comparison to its coastal counterpart suggesting particular
factors may be impacting market forces preventing improvements consistent
with the property market as a whole.
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3
Market Sentiment
3.1
Introduction
3.1.1
While the figures from actual transactions provide an accurate and detailed
picture of market trends, the information is purely quantitative and as such
lacks depth. There are also difficulties in analysing and interpreting small
samples. The report has sought therefore to obtain some qualitative evidence
to support the analysis.
3.1.2
This was obtained through a telephone survey of a selection of local agents
with experience of the North Walsham, Overstrand and Happisburgh markets
in comparison to each other and the wider North Norfolk market as a whole.
The results of which are summarised in Section 3.3 below and fuller details
are provided in with Appendix 3.
3.1.3
This local sentiment should be set against the performance of the wider
market and a brief summary of trends is set out in Section 3.2 below.
3.2
Wider Market Sentiment
3.2.1
This past decade has been one of considerable volatility starting with a
depressed market in the late 1990s.
3.2.2
The UK property market has seen unprecedented growth in sales values from
2000-2007. A substantial part of the period was influenced by confidence
and aspiration amongst the first time buyers market and considerably greater
activity amongst potential 2nd and multiple homeowners, whether in the
holiday market or the, previously unknown, buy to let market.
3.2.3
Money was easily available at historically competitive rates; the multiplier for
wage to borrowing ratio increased and mortgages in excess of 100% of the
purchase price became available, negating the need for a deposit and
opening up the housing market. This increased demand particularly from first
time buyers who had previously been unable to contemplate getting on the
property ladder. Increasing prices also made more equity available for
established home owners.
Subsequently, this increased buying and
borrowing power, coupled with increased confidence, drove the market to
unprecedented levels.
3.2.4
This confidence and extraordinary performance of the market fuelled an
impression of residential property as an excellent investment until in 2007.
Then, with the failure in the US financial markets followed by the UK and the
fall into reportedly one of the worst recessions seen by the UK, the situation
changed dramatically.
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3.2.5
The long period of uninterrupted growth and the lack of experience of a
recession amongst many house buyers, coupled with the depth of the
recession, has left people extremely cautious which has hindered recovery to
a degree. Funding has become very difficult to obtain, equity requirements
have significantly increased and strict lending criteria have been put in place
limiting banks’ capacity and willingness to lend.
3.2.6
Recovery of the market was predicted to be slow, with a potential double dip
recession and true recovery not materialising until 2011. In practice the
recovery has been stronger than anticipated until very recently when oversupply and anxiety at the impact of the comprehensive spending review has
seen a fall in prices. Current forecasts suggest a period of steady if not failing
house prices reflecting a continued lack of confidence and opaqueness
around the full impact of the comprehensive spending review and continuing
difficulties for buyers in obtaining funding.
3.3
Local Sentiment
3.3.1
The survey was designed specifically to avoid prompting agents too quickly
into identifying particular issues or perceptions around the Happisburgh
market. However, notwithstanding that, respondents were quick to
distinguish between the three markets as being quite different to each other.
3.3.2
North Walsham, being the largest settlement is a market town dominated by
estate housing and permanent residents. There is also a high proportion of
retired residents compared to other areas and limited interest from the
holiday and second home market in comparison to North Norfolk generally.
3.3.3
Overstrand and Happisburgh, being coastal towns, are more reliant on
second home and holiday home market, the difference being that although
Overstrand is affected by coastal erosion, the impact is minimal in
comparison to Happisburgh which is considered to be seriously blighted by
the effects, made worse by media coverage it receives “on an almost daily
basis”.
The Property Market as a Whole
3.3.4
The general trend is that at present, 60% of respondents believe the North
Walsham market to be the same as the general local market and 40% worse.
This is thought to be due to its characteristics i.e. non-coastal and therefore
less appealing and high supply, dominated by estate housing. Overstrand
was more favoured with 40% of respondents feeling the market to be worse,
40% the same and 20% better than the general local market currently.
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3.3.5
Perceptions were more clear-cut at Happisburgh, 80% of respondents believe
the market to be worse and 20% significantly worse at present than the local
market. This was held to be due to the coastal erosion and its constant
media coverage.
3.3.6
Over the last 10 years, 60% of respondents believe North Walsham to have
performed worse than, 20% the same and 20% better than the general local
market. Compared with opinion on current market performance this suggests
a marginal improvement in the market compared to over the last 10 years.
3.3.7
Over the past 10 years, only 20% of respondents think Overstrand has
performed worse, 60% better and 20% significantly better than the wider
market. Comparing this with current findings suggests that the market is not
performing as well now as it has been at times over the past 10 years.
3.3.8
Turning to Happisburgh, 80% of respondents believe over the past 10 years
that it performed worse than the general local market and 20% better
suggesting the market is worse at present in comparison to the wider market
than in the past 10 years.
3.3.9
Happisburgh and Overstrand both appear to be performing worse now than
over the past 10 years albeit Happisburgh to a much greater extent. It is
possible that this is due to a less significant but notable blight in Overstrand
in relation to Happisburgh and/or could reflect the dominance of the holiday
and second home market in these locations which has been significantly
affected by the current economic climate. Generally, Overstrand is considered
to fare the best of all three areas which suggests it is not particularly
blighted.
3.3.10
Happisburgh was consistently held as performing the worst of all three areas
both over the past 10 years and now in relation to the wider local market.
Average House Price
3.3.11
In terms of average house price, 80% of respondents thought property prices
were lower at present in North Walsham than the general market and 20%
the same.
3.3.12
In Overstrand 20% of respondents thought current prices to be lower, 20%
the same and 60% believe prices to be higher.
3.3.13
40% of Respondents believe current prices to be significantly lower in
Happisburgh, 20% lower and 40% the same, at the present.
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3.3.14
Over the past 10 years, 60% of respondents feel the North Walsham market
to have lower values than the wider market, 20% the same and 20% higher
values indicating prices are not as buoyant in comparison to broader local
market now as they have been.
3.3.15
20% of Respondents believe property prices in Overstrand for the past 10
years to be lower than the wider market but 80% believe them to be higher
also indicating prices are not as buoyant in comparison to broader local
market now as they have been.
3.3.16
In Happisburgh, 20% of respondents thought values were significantly lower,
20% just lower and 60% thought values were about the same so on average,
prices are perceived to be worse now than they have been over the past 10
years in comparison to the broader local market.
3.3.17
All three markets are thought to have performed better compared to North
Norfolk over the past 10 years, than they are at present.
3.3.18
Overstrand is perceived to have the highest property price of all the areas
both now and over the past 10 years and is perceived to be above that of the
broader market, followed by North Walsham and then Happisburgh.
Length of Time on the Market Before Sale
3.3.19
For North Walsham, 20% of respondents thought that currently properties
were on the market longer than the broader local market, 60% thought it
was about the same and 20% thought properties were on for a shorter
period.
3.3.20
For Overstrand, 60% of respondents thought that length of time on the
market was about the same and 40% thought the length of time was shorter.
3.3.21
At Happisburgh 20% of respondents thought that properties were on the
market significantly longer than the broader local market at present, 60%
thought it was longer and 20% thought it was the same.
3.3.22
Over the past 10 years, at North Walsham 20% of respondents thought that
properties had a longer marketing period than the broader general market
and 80% the same indicating a view that marketing period is shorter now in
relation to the broader property market than it was over the past 10 years.
While property is said to be realistically priced, there is over-supply.
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Housing Market Appraisal – 2000-2010
3.3.23
For Overstrand 80% of respondents believe length of time on the market
over the last 10 years has been the same as the broader local market, 20%
believe it shorter suggesting that currently, length of time on the market is
shorter in comparison to the broader markets at present than it has been
over the past 10 years. Overstrand is thought to be over-priced but has high
demand.
3.3.24
Happisburgh is thought to have had longer marketing periods than the
broader local market over the last 10 years with 40% of respondents thinking
the period significantly longer, 40% longer and 20% the same suggesting
length of time on the market was slightly longer over the past 10 years than
it is now
3.3.25
Of the three markets, Overstrand is perceived to have the shortest length of
time on the market followed by North Walsham and then Happisburgh.
Responses suggest that marketing relative to the wider market are shorter
now than over the past 10 years.
General Market Performance
3.3.26
Over the past 10 years, 80% of agents believe that there have not been any
years where the housing market in North Walsham has performed
significantly differently to other areas, although stock is thought to be lower
value estate housing.
3.3.27
60% of agents believed that there have not been any years over the past 10
years that the Overstrand market has performed significantly differently to
other areas.
However, 40% of respondents believe Overstrand has
outperformed the general market and competing local areas.
3.3.28
Conversely, 80% of respondents think that there are years when
Happisburgh has performed significantly differently from other areas.
Happisburgh is reported to have once had a stronger market and coastal
erosion, lack of cliff protection, associated technical reports and extensive
media coverage have had negative impacts on value as have the floods in
2008.
3.3.29
In terms of sale price in relation to asking price, 60% of respondents think
North Walsham does not have a significant difference, 80% think Overstrand
does not have a significant difference but 60% of respondents think that
there is a significant difference in sale price compared to asking price in
Happisburgh. Sentiment is that North Walsham has to be sensibly priced due
to oversupply whereas Overstrand owners look to test the market. In
Happisburgh, the market is thought to be generally overpriced due to
vendors seeking to counter the tendency amongst purchasers to discount
offers significantly.
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Housing Market Appraisal – 2000-2010
3.3.30
100% of respondents believed that proximity to the coast affected both value
and saleability of property. There is a preference for coastal properties which
command a premium and are easier to sell providing they are not on
unprotected coasts affected by coastal erosion in which case the impact is
severely negative.
3.3.31
When asked if there had been any changes over the past 10 years which
have significantly impacted the housing market, 80% said not in North
Walsham, although those responding “yes” commented on the scale of
development within the town hindering prices. Similarly, 60% said not in
Overstrand where values are thought to have been improved by the LDF
preventing development though there is some coastal erosion. But 100%
said there had been significant changes in Happisburgh and this was reported
to be the coastal erosion, unprotected cliffs, media coverage and flooding in
2008.
Summary
3.3.32
The clear conclusion from the survey was that coastal erosion has severely
impacted the Happisburgh housing market. Overstrand is thought to perform
the best in comparison to both is local counterparts and wider general
market, followed by North Walsham and then Happisburgh.
3.3.33
Agents made no distinction between the different time lines for coastal
erosion and classified the Happisburgh area as a whole. Whilst coastal
erosion was clear at the core of the market difficulties, media coverage, both
constant and occasionally dramatic, was seen to play a very important part in
influencing the local market.
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North Norfolk District Council
Housing Market Appraisal – 2000-2010
4
Conclusions
4.1
Despite appearing to have the highest average sale price in 2000 compared
to other locations, generally, Happisburgh has performed poorly compared to
other areas and coastal erosion and particularly the media attention were the
principal factors survey respondents blamed for this poor performance.
4.2
It appears from statistical data, that North Walsham and Overstrand broadly
follow the same pattern as the general property market.
However
Overstrand shows significantly higher prices than the local and broader
markets and a disproportionate increase in overall value over the past 10
years neither of which was remarked upon by respondents to the survey.
4.3
Limited data for Happisburgh, and to an extent, Overstrand, makes price
analysis difficult but this lack of data is also influenced to a limited extent by
the fact that some properties are now essentially unsaleable.
4.4
Happisburgh began in 2000 with the highest average property price, ended in
2010 with the second highest but varied from between 1st and 5th position
throughout the period over which it saw the smallest increase in value to all
the markets.
4.5
Happisburgh indicated contra cyclical tendencies in some instances and the
plateau of transactions in 2003-2006 suggests that something had an impact
on the market at this time, in the absence of other obvious causes one could
assume the SMP to be the reason.
4.6
The agents’ interpretation of the market views the Happisburgh area as
performing poorly in comparison to other local markets. Whilst this is difficult
to prove statistically, sentiment amongst market makers is clearly an
important influence as well as an indicator of performance. All commented
on coastal erosion as a factor with one specifically referring to the market
turning on “the abandonment of coastal protection policies”.
4.7
In conclusion, there is a lack of robust statistical evidence to support the
contention that coastal erosion and the changes introduced in the Shoreline
Management Plan directly impacted on the performance of the housing
market in Happisburgh. However, all the evidence available would suggest
that this is the case. That said, given the lack of transactional evidence, it is
not possible to quantify the extent of that impact or the difference between
the various erosion epochs.
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North Norfolk District Council
Housing Market Appraisal – 2000-2010
Appendix 1
Methodology
Data Sources and Limitations
December 2010
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North Norfolk District Council
Housing Market Appraisal – 2000-2010
APPENDIX I
METHODOLOGY
1.
INTRODUCTION
1.1
Having undertaken preliminary research to respond to North Norfolk District
Councils initial market appraisal requirement, it was established that the data
sets for Happisburgh were too small to enable analysis at the detailed level of
three sub-locations specified in the brief.
1.2
It was therefore agreed to assess Happisburgh as a whole, thus providing a
larger (albeit still limited) dataset which could then be compared to other local
areas to include another coastal area (Overstrand) which is less affected by
coastal erosion and a non-coastal area (North Walsham) which is neither affected
by coastal erosion or the Draft SMP.
1.3
The methodology for this project comprised two main components as follows:
i)
Analysis of published Land Registry data collected either from the Land
Registry Website, ‘Upmystreet’ and/or ‘Nethouseprices’.
ii) A telephone survey of a select number of reputable agents within the Norfolk
Area
1.4
The Land Registry Data provide quantitative data on sold prices and number of
sales transactions while the telephone survey gave depth to the study, adding a
qualitative element to explain the figures from the Land Registry.
2
ANALYSIS OF STATISTICAL DATA
2.1
The data-sets used for comparison are:
The Wider Market
•
•
•
England & Wales
East
Norfolk
The Local Markets
•
•
•
December 2010
North Walsham ( Non-coastal)
Overstrand (coastal)
Happisburgh
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Housing Market Appraisal – 2000-2010
2.2
The housing market was assessed using data on average annual sales price and
annual number of transactions for the period 2000 to 2010 from data sourced
from the Land Registry either directly or through third party information
providers.
2.3
From this information, annual percentage change in price and annual percentage
change in the number of transactions could also be extracted.
2.4
Due to the sheer volume of sales for England and Wales, any anomalies in data
should be absorbed into the data set to provide a smooth set of data which gives
a broad overview of the general trend in the market. This was then compared
against data for the East and Norfolk to establish if there were any differences
regionally and at county level.
2.5
Information for these locations was provided on a monthly basis. In order to find
the true annual average sales price, the total value of sales for the year was
divided by the total number of transactions.
2.6
Information for the Happisburgh, Overstrand and North Walsham markets were
collected from both Upmystreet and nethouseprices. Both of which claim to
provide figures obtained from Land Registry Data. Transactions, particularly for
Happisburgh and Overstrand were limited where in some instances, there were
no recorded transactions for some property types, particularly for flats.
2.7
Information for North Walsham was provided quarterly.
There may be
differences in the way this data was calculated. However, as we are only using
the annual average sale price through using total sales divided by number of
sales, any differences in methodology should be avoided.
3
DATA SOURCES
3.1
All transactional data is reportedly from Land Registry Data however, Land
Registry only provides information for the wider markets:
Land Registry Website
England and Wales, East, Norfolk
Upmystreet website
North Walsham
Overstrand
Happisburgh
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North Norfolk District Council
Housing Market Appraisal – 2000-2010
NetHouse Prices Website
Overstrand
Happisburgh
4
Telephone Interview
4.1
While the above information will give a quantitative overview of the Housing
market trends, a more in depth analysis of trends in the local area would benefit
from qualitative data. As such, local agents were interviewed using a variety of
open and closed questions to further investigate the potential impact of the
coastal erosion, SMP.
4.2
Members of the team conducted a telephone survey of a random sample of 10
reputable Estate Agents with a spread of offices throughout the Norfolk area
between the 1st and the 5th of November 2010.
4.1
The Agents approached are as follows:
Brown & Co – Holt
Abbotts - Cromer
Cockertons – Holt
Ewing Self – Aylsham
G A Key – North Walsham
Howard Page - Mundsley
Harrisons – Cromer
Sowerbys – Holt
William H Brown –
Cromer/Stalham/North Walsham
Watsons - Cromer / Holt / North Walsham
*Those shown in bold are the ones that took part. The others did not wish to respond. As such a 50%
response rate was achieved.
4.3
4.4
North Norfolk Council requested that we make enquiries of two other Agents,
Aldreds in Stalham and Acorn in North Walsham. We tried to interview these
agents but failed to secure a full response because:
Aldreds would not take part as they claimed all three locations to be out
of their area of operation and therefore unfamiliar with market trends.
Acorn felt unable to answer the questions completely as they only
operate in North Walsham and were not familiar with the other locations.
Where Acorn did attempt to answer questions, responses effectively
confirmed those from the other surveys in particular with regard to the
negative impact of erosion relating to both Happisburgh and Overstrand.
Interestingly they noted that regardless of position relative to the coast,
people were generally unwilling to look at property in Happisburgh.
The cumulative results of the telephone survey are enclosed as Appendix Three
to this report.
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Housing Market Appraisal – 2000-2010
5
Limitations
5.1
Land Registry Data was taken from the Land Registry website but information is
only provided at national, regional and county level i.e. England and Wales, East
and Norfolk and this information is provided monthly.
5.2
Happisburgh, despite being evaluated as a whole, still has a very limited data set
and is therefore likely to be subject to significant variations and anomalies
5.3
Transactions in Happisburgh and Overstrand are dominated by detached
properties. This will invariably result in a skewed all property average price in
relation to larger markets.
5.4
2010 figures are based on part of the year and therefore does not account for
annual fluctuations and therefore may be skewed.
5.5
Data for individual property types runs until September 2010 whereas data for
total number of transactions only runs to July therefore the annual figure to date
reflects the market to July 2010 only
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North Norfolk District Council
Housing Market Appraisal – 2000-2010
Appendix 2
Background Data
December 2010
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North Norfolk District Council
Housing Market Appraisal – 2000-2010
Background Data
Sales Volume
Table 1
Annual Sales Volume in the Wider Market
2000
1,077,715
2001
1,190,702
2002
1,292,230
2003
1,182,374
2004
1,180,160
2005
1,023,918
2006
1,275,340
2007
1,221,833
East
124,665
139,648
145,195
129,035
132,062
115,122
144,768
Norfolk
18,351
20,451
20,142
18,310
18,588
16,480
21,042
England and Wales
Table 2
2008
619,104
2009
613,877
138,711
68,785
75,174
20,669
10,388
12,171
Annual Sales Volume in the Local Market
2000
429
2001
445
2002
385
2003
320
2004
358
2005
167
2006
335
2007
396
2008
190
2009
277
Overstrand
24
19
33
29
24
13
33
30
12
16
Happisburgh
8
14
16
12
8
8
17
9
4
5
North Walsham
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Housing Market Appraisal – 2000-2010
Table 3
Annual Percentage Change in Sales Volume
England and Wales
East
Norfolk
North Walsham
Overstrand
Happisburgh
December 2010
2000-01
10%
12%
11%
4%
-21%
75%
2001-02
9%
4%
-2%
-13%
74%
14%
2002-03
-9%
-11%
-9%
-17%
-12%
-25%
2003-04
0%
2%
2%
12%
-17%
-33%
29
2004-05
-13%
-13%
-11%
-53%
-46%
0%
2005-06
25%
26%
28%
101%
154%
113%
2006-07
-4%
-4%
-2%
18%
-9%
-47%
2007-08
-49%
-50%
-50%
-52%
-60%
-56%
2008-09
-1%
9%
17%
46%
33%
25%
North Norfolk District Council
Housing Market Appraisal – 2000-2010
Sales Price
Table 4
Annual Average Sales Price
England and Wales
East
Norfolk
North Walsham
Overstrand
Happisburgh
Table 5
2001
£92,196
£102,876
£79,733
£89,085
£107,780
£92,921
2002
£108,989
£124,715
£98,911
£110,662
£143,277
£124,638
2003
£129,630
£146,840
£118,654
£129,555
£176,983
£151,350
2004
£148,691
£161,729
£133,963
£150,731
£193,985
£152,750
2005
£157,731
£167,453
£143,000
£160,411
£216,019
£152,556
2006
£165,843
£174,943
£149,661
£170,759
£216,574
£151,924
2007
£179,580
£189,508
£162,979
£179,670
£207,122
£200,278
2008
£174,999
£184,163
£159,330
£179,740
£202,604
£168,500
2009
£157,002
£165,450
£141,113
£164,216
£181,778
£159,900
2010
£165,760
£176,404
£147,589
£168,547
£243,188
£191,500
Percentage Change in Annual Property Price
England and Wales
East
Norfolk
North Walsham
Overstrand
Happisburgh
December 2010
2000
£83,467
£91,376
£69,495
£75,701
£83,923
£116,438
2000-01
10%
13%
15%
18%
28%
-20%
2001-02
18%
21%
24%
24%
33%
34%
2002-03
19%
18%
20%
17%
24%
21%
2003-04
15%
10%
13%
16%
10%
1%
30
2004-05
6%
4%
7%
6%
11%
0%
2005-06
5%
4%
5%
6%
0%
0%
2006-07
8%
8%
9%
5%
-4%
32%
2007-08
-3%
-3%
-2%
0%
-2%
-16%
2008-09
-10%
-10%
-11%
-9%
-10%
-5%
2009-10
6%
7%
5%
3%
34%
20%
North Norfolk District Council
Housing Market Appraisal – 2000-2010
Summary Tables
Table 6
Summary of Number of Annual Sales Transactions
Year
Summary
00-01
All areas showed an increase in volume of sales from the previous year, bar Overstrand
where transactions fell.
The increase in Happisburgh was considerably bigger
compared to the wider market and the increase in North Walsham proportionally
smaller than the wider markets.
01-02
Norfolk and North Walsham saw a fall in the number of transactions from the previous
year where the other locations saw increases with North Walsham seeing the biggest
fall. Overstrand saw a significantly higher percentage increase in sales in comparison to
all other areas. The smallest increase was in the East.
02-03
All areas saw a fall in transactions compared to the previous year. Happisburgh saw by
far the largest fall in the percentage of annual sales volume. The local markets saw
greater falls generally than the wider markets.
03-04
The East, Norfolk and North Walsham saw an increase in the number sales from the
previous year with North Walsham seeing the biggest rise. England and Wales saw a
minimal fall on previous years but Overstrand and Happisburgh saw a significantly
greater fall in percentage change in transactions from the previous year. Happisburgh
saw the largest fall.
04-05
All markets saw a fall in the number of transactions on the previous year except
Happisburgh. North Walsham and Overstrand saw proportionally larger falls in the
number of sales though North Walsham saw the biggest fall.
05-06
2006 showed recovery to all markets with an increase in transactions across the board
however England and Wales, the East and Norfolk showed broadly similar percentage
increases while the local markets saw increases three to six times more than the
broader markets.
06-07
All locations saw a fall in the number of transactions from the previous year bar North
Walsham which saw an impressive increase. Happisburgh saw particularly higher
decrease in the percentage of sales than all other locations.
07-08
2008 saw a substantial fall in the number of transactions across all markets and
broadly similar in percentage terms across the board though Overstrand saw the
greatest fall.
08-09
Local markets showed better signs of recovery than the broader market, particularly
North Wallsham and Overstrand. Happisburgh showed the smallest increase in
transactions in the local market but was still above those in the broader market and
England and Wales actually saw a slight decrease in the number of transactions on the
previous year.
December 2010
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Housing Market Appraisal – 2000-2010
Table 7
Summary of Annual Change in Average Property Prices
Year
Summary
00-01
Happisburgh began with the highest average price, followed by the East.
Overstrand and England and Wales had similar values followed by North Walsham
and Norfolk. All average property values increased by 2001, bar Happisburgh
where the average price fell. Overstrand saw the biggest increase to have the
highest average value by 2001.
01-02
All areas saw similar increases in values with Overstrand and Happisburgh
experiencing the highest increase and England and Wales the lowest.
02-03
Again, all areas saw an increase in values with Overstrand and Happisburgh
experiencing the highest increases and North Walsham the lowest.
03-04
All areas saw increases in average values around 10-16% except Happisburgh
which only has a 1% rise. Overstrand had the highest increase.
04-05
Happisburgh saw a small fall in average values where all other locations
experienced increases of less than 11%. Overstrand had the largest percentage
increase in price and the East had the smallest.
05-06
All areas experienced an increase in values except Happisburgh what saw a small
fall. North Walsham saw the biggest increase again and the increase in
Overstrand was negligible in comparison to other locations.
06-07
Overstrand values fell while all other areas increased, especially Happisburgh
which saw a significantly higher rise than the other locations.
07-08
North Walsham saw a minimal increase in average values while all other markets
fell in value. Happisburgh saw the largest fall.
08-09
All locations fell in value though Happisburghs was half that of other areas.
Norfolk saw the biggest fall in value of all the areas.
09-10
All locations saw an increase in value with Overstrand by 34% and Happisburgh
by 20% in comparison to rises of 3-7% in other locations.
December 2010
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Appendix 3
Questionnaires and Responses
December 2010
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Housing Market Appraisal – 2000-2010
Questionnaire
1.
In your opinion, how do the following areas compare with the housing
market in North Norfolk generally at present?
Significantly
Worse
Worse
Same
North
Walsham
40%
60%
Overstrand
40%
40%
Happisburgh
20%
Better
Significantly
better
20%
80%
Comments
North Walsham is dominated by modern estate development inland and
consequently less demand for holiday homes.
Overstrand is more typical of the general coastal market although with some
coastal erosion issues
Happisburgh is adversely affected by coastal erosion and particularly the media
coverage thereof.
2.
In your opinion, how have the following areas compared with the housing
market in North Norfolk generally over the past 10 years?
Significantly
Worse
Worse
Same
Better
North
Walsham
60%
20%
20%
Overstrand
20%
60%
Happisburgh
80%
Significantly
better
20%
20%
Comments
North Walsham has been impacted by extensive estate development.
Overstrand is an attractive holiday location slightly fettered by coastal erosion
Happisburgh has been impacted by coastal erosion.
December 2010
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Housing Market Appraisal – 2000-2010
3.
In your opinion, how does the average house price in the following areas
compare to North Norfolk at present?
Significantly
Lower
Lower
Same
North
Walsham
80%
20%
Overstrand
20%
20%
20%
40%
Happisburgh
40%
Higher
Significantly
Higher
60%
Comments
None
4.
In your opinion, how has the average house price in the following areas
compared to North Norfolk over the past 10 years?
Significantly
Lower
Lower
Same
Higher
North
Walsham
60%
20%
20%
Overstrand
20%
Happisburgh
20%
20%
Significantly
Higher
80%
60%
Comments
North Walsham is the largest town in the region and properties relatively cheap
compared to holiday locations.
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Housing Market Appraisal – 2000-2010
5.
In you opinion, how does the length of time on the market before sale
compare to the North Norfolk Market currently?
Significantly
Longer
North
Walsham
Overstrand
Happisburgh
20%
Longer
Same
shorter
20%
60%
20%
40%
60%
60%
20%
Significantly
shorter
Comments
North Walsham property is realistically priced but there is over-supply
Overstrand is apparently over-priced but high demand
6.
In you opinion, how has the length of time on the market before sale
compare to the North Norfolk Market over the past 10 years?
Significantly
Longer
North
Walsham
Overstrand
Happisburgh
40%
Comments
None
December 2010
36
Longer
Same
20%
80%
40%
80%
20%
shorter
20%
Significantly
shorter
North Norfolk District Council
Housing Market Appraisal – 2000-2010
7.
Over the past 10 years, do you consider that there have been any years
where the housing market in any of the above locations have performed
significantly differently from the other areas?
North Walsham
Overstrand
Happisburgh
Yes
20%
40%
80%
No
80%
60%
20%
Comments
North Walsham is generally predominantly lower value estate housing.
Overstrand has outperformed the general market and local competing areas.
generally outperforms other areas.
Happisburgh used to have strong demand but this is no longer the case. Coastal
erosion, associated publications, its extensive coverage in the media and lack of cliff
protection noted to have negatively impacted values in addition to 2008 flooding.
8.
In the areas listed below, do you think there is a significant difference in sale
price compared to asking price? And if so, what do you believe the reason to
be
North Walsham
Overstrand
Happisburgh
Yes
40%
20%
60%
No
60%
80%
40%
Comment
North Walsham has a bigger market with over supply of estate housing
Overstrand is overpriced by owners looking to test the market
Happisburgh is overpriced partly to compensate for anticipated purchaser
discounted offers due to coastal erosion and deciding to let nature take its course.
People are scared by the reports.
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Housing Market Appraisal – 2000-2010
9.
Do you think distance from the coast has an impact on the value / saleability
of property? If yes, please comment
Value
Saleability
Yes
100%
100%
no
Comment
Coastal locations are generally more popular. People like properties close to the
coast but not if they are falling into the sea. It depends on the risk as coastal
properties can also be blighted. Generally easier to sell properties close to the coast.
Unprotected coasts achieve less.
10.
Do you think there have been any significant changes in the past 10 years
that may have impacted the housing market in any of the areas below? If
yes, please comment.
North Walsham
Overstrand
Happisburgh
Yes
20%
40%
100%
No
80%
60%
Comment
North Walsham has undergone much estate development and has policy
concentrating on development in town which has hindered values
Overstrand protection from development by LDF which has improved values. There
is some impact from coastal erosion
Happisburgh the coastal erosion, unprotected cliffs, media coverage and flooding in
2008
December 2010
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