COOL Activity 1.2
Economic Impact Research
The Economic Impact of the Norfolk Visitor Economy 2012
North Norfolk district and Norfolk county
Produced on behalf of the COOL programme partners
by
The South West Research Company Ltd.
January 2014
1
Contents
Page
Introduction
3
Background and methodology
4
Executive summary
5
North Norfolk district data
6
Norfolk county data
20
2
Introduction
This report examines the volume and value of tourism and the impact of visitor expenditure on the local economy in North
Norfolk district and the county of Norfolk in 2012.
The figures were derived using the Cambridge Economic Impact Model undertaken by Tourism South East (TSE) and the report
compiled by The South West Research Company (TSWRC). The model utilises information from national tourism surveys and
regionally/locally based data. It distributes regional activity as measured in those surveys to local areas using ‘drivers’ such as
the accommodation stock and occupancy which influence the distribution of tourism activity at local level.
For a full overview of the Cambridge Model and the terms used in this report please see Appendix 1 which accompanies this
report.
The report provides comparative data for Cool Project Partners and comparative data for participating districts within the
county of Norfolk.
For an overview of 2012, including key facts about the economy, weather and key events please see Appendix 2 of this report.
3
Background and methodology - The Cambridge Model
The Cambridge Model is a computer-based model developed to calculate estimates of the volume, value and economic
impact of tourism on a County or District basis. It draws on the combined experience of PA Cambridge Economic Consultants
Ltd, Geoff Broom Associates and utilises a standard methodology capable of application throughout the UK. It therefore
offers the potential for direct comparisons with similar destinations throughout the country. The model has been widely
used in both the South West and across areas of England for a number of years.
The Model in its basic form relies on using information from a range of sources. The methodology and accuracy of these
sources varies and therefore the estimates can only be regarded as indicative of the scale and importance of visitor activity in
the local area. Thus the Model cannot take account of any leakage of expenditure in and out of the local area from tourists
taking day trips in or out of the area in which they are staying. While it is assumed that these may broadly balance each
other in many areas there will be an underestimate in relation to overseas day visits from holiday accommodation in London
to locations receiving significant numbers from that source. As with all models the outputs need to be viewed in the context
of local information and knowledge. Because of the data sources and modelling process there will be a potentially large
margin of error associated with individual figures, with small numbers being particularly prone to such errors. Therefore the
outputs should be taken as indicative rather than definitive.
Seasonality estimates.
Regular requests are received for seasonality estimates so this has been added to reports at a county level. The estimates
contained within the report have been calculated as shown below;
· UK Staying trips nights and spend – Regional and county level data for trips, nights and spend by the month of trip derived
from UKTS have been applied to the annual figures for each area to produce seasonality estimates. Because of the smaller
samples at a county level 3 year averages have been applied.
· Overseas Staying trips nights and spend – Regional data for trips, nights and spend by the month of trip derived from IPS
have been applied to the annual figures for each area to produce seasonality estimates.
· Day visits and spend – Regional data for the month of trip and spend derived from GBDVS have been applied to the annual
4
figures for each area to produce seasonality estimates.
Executive Summary
Key points for 2012
• North Norfolk attracted approximately 6.5m day and staying trips with a total visitor related spen of £364.6m.
• When supplier and income induced expenditure generated as result of visitor spend are also considered the total value of
tourism in North Norfolk was an estimated £416m, supporting an estimated 9,100 tourism related jobs within the district.
• The district received approximately 0.6m staying trips accounting for 2.1m visitor nights and £92.4m visitor spend with
domestic visitors accounting for the large majority of staying trips.
• Serviced accommodation accounted for 31% of all staying visitor trips.
• Taking a holiday was the main purpose of the majority of trips to the district (80%).
• North Norfolk received approximately 5.9m day visits generating £220m in day visitor expenditure. Coastal visits generated
the largest proportion of day visit trips (37%) contributing 31% of day visit expenditure.
• Of the approximate £345m direct visitor expenditure in the county 11% was spent in the accommodation sector, 23% on
shopping, 37% on food & drink, 12% on attractions and entertainment and 17% on travel and transport within the local
area.
• The distribution of direct FTE employment amongst businesses in receipt of visitor expenditure shows the largest
proportion of FTE’s arising in the Catering sector (2,294 jobs – 43% of all FTE’s).
5
Value of Tourism 2012
North Norfolk
Key Facts
571,000
Staying visitor trips
2,452,000
Staying visitor nights
£124,937,000
Staying visitor spend
5,948,000
Day visits
£220,173,000
Day visitor spend
£345,110,000
Direct visitor spend
£19,536,500
Other related spend
£364,646,500
TOTAL VISITOR RELATED SPEND
£341,279,500
*ADJUSTED VISITOR RELATED SPEND
£74,675,000
Supplier and income induced spend
£415,954,500
TOTAL VALUE OF TOURISM
9,146
Estimated actual employment
6,550
FTE employment
23%
Proportion of all employment
6
* It is assumed that 40% of travel spend will take place at the origin of the trip rather than at the destination.
North Norfolk – Staying visits
Information on staying visits within the county of Norfolk is derived from the Great Britain Tourism Survey (GBTS) for domestic
visitors and from the International Passenger Survey (IPS) for Overseas visitors. The methodology of both surveys has been
stable since 2006 allowing for direct comparison between years and the analysis of trend data. Data at a county level is taken
from the national surveys for trips, nights and spend but is modelled below this level.
Three year average data for Norfolk county (2010 to 2012) has been used to produce the modelled staying visitor outputs
contained within this report.
6
7
North Norfolk - Staying visits in the county context
All staying nights (000’s)
All staying trips (000’s)
1,200
1,118
5,000
1,000
4,500
4,000
800
3,500
3,000
571
600
496
431
400
4,665
£300
£200
2,452
2,119
2,112
2,500
0
1,096
North
Norfolk
Norwich
South
Norfolk
West
Norfolk
£125
£103
£92
£49
£50
0
Great
Yarmouth
£150
£100
1,000
500
200
£244
£250
2,000
1,500
257
All staying spend (£mn)
£0
Great
Yarmouth
North
Norfolk
Norwich
South
Norfolk
West
Norfolk
Great
Yarmouth
North
Norfolk
Norwich
South
Norfolk
West
Norfolk
Domestic trips
(000’s)
Overseas trips
(000’s)
Domestic nights
(000’s)
Overseas nights
(000’s)
Domestic spend
(millions)
Overseas spend
(millions)
1,072
46
4,327
338
£225
£19
North Norfolk
547
24
2,172
280
£112
£13
Norwich
395
36
1,784
328
£76
£16
South Norfolk
238
19
931
165
£43
£7
West Norfolk
471
25
1,857
262
£92
£11
Area
Great Yarmouth
In 2012 North Norfolk attracted approximately 0.6 million staying visitor trips equating to just under 2.5 million visitor nights
and contributing £125 million to the district’s economy. Within the county context North Norfolk accounted for 17% of all
staying visitor trips, 17% of nights and 18% spend in 2012 to Norfolk county and was the second largest participating district
in the county (in this project) in terms of staying visitor volume and value. Staying visitor activity accounted for 36% of all
direct visitor expenditure in North Norfolk.
8
North Norfolk - Staying visits by accommodation type
Domestic tourists
Serviced
Self catering
Touring caravans /tents
Static vans/holiday centres
Group/campus
Paying guest in private homes
Second homes
Boat moorings
Other
Staying with friends and relatives
Total
Overseas tourists
Serviced
Self catering
Touring caravans /tents
Static vans/holiday centres
Group/campus
Paying guest in private homes
Second homes
Boat moorings
Other
Staying with friends and relatives
Total
Trips
Nights
Spend
173,000
85,000
111,000
23,000
11,000
0
32,000
0
7,000
105,000
547,000
466,000
326,000
454,000
102,000
186,000
0
134,000
0
129,000
376,000
2,172,000
£41,455,000
£22,768,000
£21,821,000
£4,724,000
£1,878,000
£0
£4,792,000
£0
£5,229,000
£9,459,000
£112,126,000
Trips
Nights
Spend
2,600
2,700
2,200
100
1,200
0
1,200
0
1,300
12,200
24,000
13,000
89,000
20,000
0
27,000
0
13,000
0
6,000
113,000
280,000
£1,031,000
£4,733,000
£637,000
£13,000
£1,213,000
£0
£829,000
£0
£293,000
£4,062,000
£12,811,000
Serviced accommodation was used for the largest proportion of staying visitor trips (31%), equating to 20% of all staying
nights and 34% of all staying spend to the district overall. The second largest proportion of visitors stayed with friends and
relatives which accounted for 21% of all staying trips, 20% of staying nights although only 11% of all staying spend.
9
North Norfolk - Staying visits by purpose
Trips
Domestic tourists
Trips
Nights
Spend
Holiday
447,000
1,697,000
£94,219,000
Business
41,000
149,000
£6,800,000
Visits to friends and relatives
56,000
311,000
£9,873,000
Other
3,000
16,000
£1,234,000
Study
0
0
£0
Total
547,000
2,172,000
£112,126,000
Trips
Nights
Spend
Holiday
10,300
106,000
£4,985,000
Business
2,000
22,000
£1,118,000
Overseas tourists
Visits to friends and relatives
10,200
135,000
£5,675,000
100%
40%
27%
98%
95%
85%
73%
20%
0%
Holiday
Business
UK
VFR
Other
Overseas
Nights
100%
6%
13%
30%
80%
1,100
17,000
£1,032,000
Study
0
0
£0
40%
£12,811,000
20%
280,000
15%
60%
Other
23,600
5%
80%
60%
Total
2%
52%
94%
87%
70%
48%
0%
Holiday
When staying visits are analysed by the main purpose of trip holiday visits were
the key driver for the majority of trips to North Norfolk.
Business
UK
VFR
Other
Overseas
Spend
Overall proportions of volume and value by purpose:
100%
Holiday – 80% of all trips, 74% of all nights and 79% of all spend.
80%
Business – 8% of all trips, 7% of all nights and 6% of all spend.
60%
40%
VFR – 12% of all trips, 18% of all nights and 12% of all spend.
5%
95%
14%
36%
46%
64%
54%
86%
20%
Other – 1% of all trips, 1% of all nights and 2% of all spend.
0%
Holiday
6
Business
VFR
Other
10
UK
Overseas
North Norfolk – Day visits
Information on day visits within this report has been derived from the 2012 Great Britain Day Visit Survey (GBDVS). The
survey, which was first undertaken in 2011, provides a much needed update on day visit activity in Great Britain and generally
speaking estimated greater frequencies of trip taking than the previous day visit survey (England Leisure Visits Survey 2005).
As a result of the new methodology in 2011 comparisons with previous day visit estimates are not possible.
The GBDVS distinguishes between day visits to a town or city; to the seaside and coast; and to the countryside. Different
drivers are used within the model to distribute these trips. Local ‘drivers’ such as attraction footfall, quality and size of
countryside and coastline are factored into the model for this purpose.
6
11
North Norfolk - Day visits in the county context
Day visits (mn)
8.0
Day visit spend (£mn)
£350
6.9
7.0
6.4
5.9
£300
6.0
£250
5.0
4.0
£318
£200
3.8
£153
£150
2.5
3.0
£238
£220
£100
£100
2.0
£50
1.0
0.0
£0
Great
Yarmouth
North
Norfolk
Norwich
South
Norfolk
West
Norfolk
When viewed in the county context North Norfolk
attracted 20% of day visits and 18% of day visit
spend in the county of Norfolk (county total 30.1m visits and £1.2bn spend).
This was greater than the volume and value of
day visits in South Norfolk and Great Yarmouth
but smaller than Norwich and West Norfolk.
Great
Yarmouth
North
Norfolk
Norwich
South
Norfolk
West
Norfolk
Day visits (mn)
Day visit spend
(£mn)
Great Yarmouth
3.8
£153.1
North Norfolk
5.9
£220.2
Norwich
6.9
£317.8
South Norfolk
2.5
£99.8
West Norfolk
6.4
£238.4
Area
12
North Norfolk - Day visits by location
Total day visits
Total day visit spend
5,948,000
£220,173,000
Day visits
Coastal visits,
2,242,000
Day visit spend
Urban visits,
2,077,000
Countryside
visits,
1,629,000
Coastal visits,
£68,768,000
Countryside
visits,
£55,988,000
Urban visits,
£95,417,000
Broadly speaking, the location of day visits were relatively well spread in North Norfolk. Visits to urban locations (35%)
accounted for 43% of day visit expenditure, coastal visits accounted for 38% of visits and 31% of expenditure whilst
countryside visits accounted for 27% of visits and 25% of expenditure. Day visitor activity accounted for 64% of all direct
visitor spend in North Norfolk.
13
North Norfolk - Direct visitor expenditure by category
Information on the breakdown of visitor spending is available from the three main tourism and day visitor surveys by type of
visitor. The Model divides the expenditure between five sectors:
• Accommodation
• Shopping for gifts, clothes and other goods
• Eating and drinking in restaurants, cafes and inns
• Entry to attractions, entertainment and hire of goods and services
• Transport and travel costs including public transport, purchase of fuel and parking
The following pages look at the breakdown of this expenditure within North Norfolk and business turnover arising from this
expenditure.
By applying the expenditure breakdown to the estimates of visitor spending the Model generates estimates of total spending
by the five business sectors. Visitor expenditure in each sector represents additional turnover for businesses in those sectors.
However, evidence from national studies suggests that some minor adjustments are required to match visitor spend to
business turnover. In particular, some expenditure on food and drink actually takes place in inns and hotels that fall into the
accommodation sector and at attractions. The turnover for each business sector has therefore been adjusted to take account
of these marginal changes. More significantly, expenditure on travel costs associated with individual trips is as likely to take
place at the origin of the trip as it is at the actual destination. It is therefore assumed that only 60% of total travel expenditure
accrues to the destination area.
14
North Norfolk – Direct visitor expenditure by category
North Norfolk attracted a total direct
visitor expenditure of approximately
£345m in 2012. The proportions by
category of all direct visitor
expenditure within North Norfolk
were;
Accommodation
• UK staying visitors
• Overseas staying visitors
£33,930,000
£3,421,000
Shopping
• UK staying visitors
• Overseas staying visitors
• Day visitors
£15,743,000
£3,768,000
£59,523,000
Accommodation 11%
(£37,351,000)
£28,933,000
£2,954,000
£97,176,000
Food & Drink 37%
(£129,063,000)
Shopping 23%
(£37,351,000)
Food & drink
• UK staying visitors
• Overseas staying visitors
• Day visitors
Attractions 12%
(£41,241,000)
Attractions/entertainment
• UK staying visitors
• Overseas staying visitors
• Day visitors
£13,321,000
£1,362,000
£26,558,000
Travel 17%
(£58,420,000)
The figures reflect the importance of
the day visitor market to North
Norfolk with 37% of direct visitor
expenditure spent on food & drink
compared to just 11% on
accommodation costs.
Travel
• UK staying visitors
• Overseas staying visitors
• Day visitors
£20,199,000
£1,305,000
£36,916,000
6
15
North Norfolk – Other visitor related expenditure by category
Additional visitor related expenditure
arises from ;
Second Homes
£5,385,000
• Spend on second homes estimates
cover rates, maintenance, and
replacement of furniture and fittings.
Boats
• Spend on boats estimates cover
berthing charges, servicing and
maintenance and upgrading of
equipment.
£0
• Static van spend arises in the case of
vans purchased by the owner and
used as a second home. Expenditure
is incurred in site fees, utility charges
and other spending.
Static Vans
£512,500
Visiting friends and relatives (non-visitor spend)
£13,639,000
• Additional spending is incurred by
friends and relatives as a result of
people coming to stay with them.
This generated a further £19.5 million in
visitor related spend in North Norfolk.
6
16
North Norfolk – Business turnover
Turnover derived from
trip expenditure
Staying visitor
related
Day visitor
related
Total
Accommodation
£37,989,000
£1,944,000
£39,933,000
Retailing
£19,316,000
£58,928,000
£78,244,000
Catering
£30,931,000
£94,260,000
£125,191,000
Attractions/entertainment
£15,197,000
£28,125,000
£43,322,000
Transport
£12,903,000
£22,150,000
£35,053,000
Arising from non trip spend
£19,536,500
£0
£19,536,500
Total Direct
£135,872,500
£205,407,000
£341,279,500
Total business turnover
supported by tourism
activity
Staying visitor
related
Day visitor
related
Total
Direct
£135,872,500
£205,407,000
£341,279,500
Supplier and income
induced
£41,844,000
£32,831,000
£74,675,000
Total
£177,716,500
£238,238,000
£415,954,500
Business turnover arises as a result of tourist
spending, from the purchase of supplies and
services locally by businesses in receipt of
visitor spending and as a result of the
spending of wages in businesses by
employees whose jobs are directly or
indirectly supported by tourism spending.
Direct visitor related expenditure in North
Norfolk in 2012 provided in excess of £341
million pounds business turnover in the
county (after reductions to travel and
transport spend).
The largest proportions of this fell within the
Catering and Retail sectors with the majority
of their business turnover supported by day
visitors to the district.
When the purchase of services locally and
spending of wages by employees whose jobs
are supported by tourism spending is
calculated (supplier and income induced
turnover) the total estimated business
turnover in North Norfolk arising as a result
of visitor activity rises to an approximate
£416 million pounds.
17
North Norfolk – Tourism related employment
Having identified the value of turnover generated by visitor spending in each business sector it is possible to estimate the
employment associated with that spending.
The use of visitor expenditure to generate job numbers underestimates the number of jobs arising in the
attractions/entertainment sector. The underestimate arises because local authorities and voluntary bodies do not always seek
to recoup the full operating costs of individual attractions of facilities from entrance charges. Therefore an additional
percentage of direct employment is added to the attractions sector estimates to take account of this factor.
This section of the report looks at employment on three levels;
• Direct Jobs - Direct jobs are those in businesses in receipt of visitor spending. For example, jobs supported by visitor
spending at a hotel would be direct jobs.
• Indirect Jobs - Indirect employment arises as a result of expenditure by businesses in direct receipt of visitor
expenditure on the purchase of goods and services for their businesses. For example, some of the employment at a
business supplying food and drink may be supported through the supplies that the business sells to hotels (or any
other business in direct receipt of visitor expenditure).
• Induced Jobs - Induced jobs are those that are supported by the spending of wages by employees in direct and
indirect jobs. Such spending will be spread across a wide range of service sectors.
Estimates are shown for actual jobs and full time equivalent jobs (FTE’s).
6
18
North Norfolk – Tourism related employment
Estimated actual employment
Direct
Indirect
Induced
Total
7,727
1,033
386
9,146
Full time equivalent employment (FTE’s)
Direct
Indirect
Induced
Total
5,306
906
338
6,550
Direct employment in
businesses in receipt of
visitor expenditure
(FTE’s)
Staying visitor
related
Day visitor
related
Total
Accommodation
765
39
804
Retailing
194
592
786
Catering
567
1,727
2,294
Attractions/entertainment
292
540
831
Transport
97
167
265
Arising from non trip spend
326
0
326
2,241
3,065
Total Direct
There were an estimated 9,146 actual
tourism related jobs within North
Norfolk equating to 6,550 FTE’s. 84% of
the estimated actual employment was
supported by direct visitor expenditure.
A further 11% of estimated actual
employment was categorised as indirect
and supported by the spending of
businesses in receipt of direct visitor
expenditure to purchase local supplies
and services. 4% of estimated actual
jobs were categorised as induced which
are supported by the spending of
employees whose jobs are supported by
tourism expenditure.
The distribution of direct FTE
employment amongst businesses in
receipt of visitor expenditure shows the
largest proportion of FTE’s arising in the
Catering sector (2,294 jobs – 43% of all
FTE’s). Accommodation, Attractions and
Retailing (15% each) were the next
largest sectors in terms of the numbers
of FTE employment from direct visitor
expenditure.
5,306
6
19
Norfolk county data 2012
Norfolk - Key facts at a glance
Total staying trips
UK
3,185,000
Overseas
188,000
Total staying and
day trips
Total day trips
30,058,000
33,431,000
Total day trip spend
Total visitor nights
UK
12,968,000
Overseas
1,732,000
£1,207,439,000
Total visitor related
spend
£2,056,207,750
Total visitor spend
UK
£628,000,000
Overseas
£81,000,000
*Adjusted visitor
related spend
£1,944,091,750
Supplier and income induced spend
£837,105,000
Total value of
tourism
£2,781,196,750
Total estimated actual employment
54,245 (40,467 FTEs)
15% of all employment
Friends and
relatives spend
(non-visitor)
£112,593,000
Second
home/holiday
accommodation
spend
£27,484,750
Direct employment
38,340
Indirect employment
9,815
Induced employment
6,090
* It is assumed that 40% of travel spend will take place at the origin of the trip rather than at the destination.
21
Norfolk - Staying visits in the COOL Project context
All staying nights (000’s)
All staying trips (000’s)
5,000
16,000
4,563
4,500
£800
14,700
14,000
4,000
10,000
2,534
2,500
1,947
2,000
1,500
7,976
£400
6,000
£300
500
0
0
Essex
Kent
Norfolk
Somerset
£500
8,000
2,000
£709
£600
9,196
4,000
1,000
£674
£700
12,000
3,373
3,500
3,000
14,695
All staying spend (millions)
£443
£363
£200
£100
Essex
Kent
Norfolk
Somerset
£0
Essex
Kent
Norfolk
Somerset
Domestic trips
(000’s)
Overseas trips
(000’s)
Domestic nights
(000’s)
Overseas nights
(000’s)
Domestic spend
(millions)
Overseas spend
(millions)
Essex
2,002
532
5,821
3,375
£263
£179
Kent
3,647
916
9,216
5,479
£394
£280
Norfolk
3,185
188
12,968
1,732
£628
£81
Somerset
1,798
149
6,865
1,111
£299
£64
COOL Project Area
Norfolk - Staying visits by accommodation type
Domestic tourists
Trips
Nights
Spend
Serviced
898,000
2,417,000
£214,967,000
Self catering
247,000
953,000
£66,512,000
Touring caravans /tents
300,000
1,227,000
£58,958,000
Static vans/holiday centres
630,000
2,820,000
£131,179,000
Group/campus
48,000
798,000
£8,043,000
0
0
£0
Second homes
68,000
281,000
£10,091,000
Boat moorings
68,000
308,000
£16,994,000
Other
58,000
1,063,000
£43,162,000
Staying with friends and relatives
868,000
3,101,000
£78,088,000
3,185,000
12,968,000
£627,992,000
Trips
Nights
Spend
Serviced
49,000
250,000
£19,637,000
Self catering
8,000
260,000
£13,828,000
Touring caravans /tents
6,000
53,000
£1,720,000
Static vans/holiday centres
2,000
7,000
£352,000
Group/campus
5,000
116,000
£5,193,000
Paying guest in private homes
3,000
41,000
£2,276,000
Second homes
3,000
27,000
£1,747,000
Boat moorings
0
0
£0
Other
11,000
48,000
£2,418,000
Staying with friends and relatives
101,000
932,000
£33,528,000
Total
188,000
1,732,000
£80,699,000
Paying guest in private homes
Total
Overseas tourists
Norfolk - Staying visits by purpose
Trips
Domestic tourists
Holiday
Trips
2,483,000
Nights
Spend
9,481,000
£534,240,000
100%
2%
15%
15%
85%
85%
Business
VFR
80%
28%
60%
Business
213,000
775,000
£37,501,000
Visits to friends and relatives
465,000
2,583,000
£50,001,000
98%
40%
100%
72%
20%
0%
Holiday
Other
23,000
129,000
Other
Study
£6,250,000
UK
Study
0
0
£0
Total
3,185,000
12,968,000
£627,992,000
Overseas
Nights
100%
4%
80%
29%
24%
71%
76%
Business
VFR
45%
60%
Overseas tourists
Trips
Nights
Spend
40%
100%
96%
55%
20%
Holiday
53,000
398,000
£19,368,000
0%
Holiday
Business
38,000
312,000
£16,140,000
Visits to friends and relatives
85,000
814,000
£35,507,000
UK
9,000
104,000
£6,456,000
Study
Overseas
Spend
100%
Other
Other
3%
30%
80%
42%
51%
60%
Study
4,000
104,000
£3,228,000
40%
Total
188,000
1,732,000
£80,699,000
100%
97%
70%
58%
20%
49%
0%
Holiday
6
Business
UK
VFR
Overseas
Other
Study
Norfolk- Estimated seasonality of staying visits
Seasonality - trips
UK trips (000's)
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
130.0
78.0
169.0
182.0
143.0
377.0
442.0
585.0
364.0
208.0
338.0
169.0
OS trips (000's)
12.6
7.5
16.3
12.2
9.6
25.2
18.9
25.0
15.5
13.2
21.4
10.7
Total trips (000's)
142.6
85.5
185.3
194.2
152.6
402.2
460.9
610.0
379.5
221.2
359.4
179.7
Seasonality - nights
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
218.4
461.0
558.0
776.4
376.1
1467.8
2717.3
2899.3
1577.0
679.3
691.5
545.9
OS nights (000's)
55.4
117.0
141.6
116.8
56.6
220.9
234.7
250.4
136.2
142.6
145.1
114.6
Total nights (000's)
273.8
577.9
699.6
893.2
432.7
1688.7
2952.1
3149.7
1713.3
821.9
836.6
660.5
UK nights (000's)
6
Norfolk - Estimated seasonality of staying visits
Seasonality - spend
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
UK spend (mn's)
28.1
18.4
22.7
31.3
OS spend (mn's)
5.1
3.3
4.1
3.8
Total spend (mn's)
33.2
21.7
26.8
35.1
19.5
99.4
139.4
109.2
67.0
2.3
12.0
12.9
10.1
6.2
21.8
111.4
152.3
119.2
73.2
6
Nov
Dec
32.4
44.3
16.2
7.3
10.0
3.7
39.7
54.3
19.9
Norfolk - Day visits in the COOL Project context
Somerset
11%
Day visits
Somerset
10%
Day visit spend
Essex
32%
Essex
29%
Norfolk
22%
Norfolk
23%
Kent
35%
Kent
38%
Area
Day visits (millions)
Day visit spend (millions)
Essex
39.4
£1,642.1
Kent
52.7
£1,800.8
Norfolk
30.1
£1,207.4
Somerset
15.5
£526.4
Norfolk - Day visits by location
Total day visits
Total day visit spend
30,058,000
£1,207,439,000
Day visit spend
Day visits
Coastal visits,
£140,816,000
Coastal visits,
4,592,000
Urban visits,
16,546,000
Countryside
visits,
8,920,000
Countryside
visits,
£306,592,000
Urban visits,
£760,031,000
Norfolk - Estimated seasonality of day visits
Seasonality - day visits (000’s)
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Urban(000's)
955.9
1182.2
1010.3
1069.7
1175.0
1452.1
1331.1
1922.9
2013.2
1470.2
1514.7
1448.9
Rural (000's)
588.8
497.1
600.8
925.9
614.5
623.5
964.4
1324.9
1154.5
468.4
383.2
773.9
Coastal (000's)
112.9
125.7
179.0
268.3
530.4
335.6
456.6
1277.9
929.5
62.0
59.2
254.9
Total (000's)
1657.6
1805.0
1790.1
2263.9
2319.8
2411.2
2752.1
4525.7
4097.2
2000.6
1957.2
2477.6
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Seasonality - day visit spend (millions)
Jan
Feb
Urban (mn)
37.4
84.0
26.8
55.8
32.2
57.7
49.8
84.9
129.1
101.9
43.5
56.7
Rural (mn)
16.3
4.1
22.3
41.0
31.5
11.7
27.0
37.7
41.3
34.7
7.3
31.7
Coastal (mn)
1.1
0.8
2.3
5.0
13.1
4.1
9.3
29.8
67.0
0.7
0.5
7.2
76.8
6
73.4
86.1
152.4
237.4
137.3
51.3
95.7
Total (mn)
54.8
88.9
Mar
51.5
Apr
101.8
May
Jun
Jul
Norfolk – Direct visitor expenditure by category in the COOL project context
Norfolk
County
Accommodation
Shopping
Food & drink
Attractions/
entertainment
Travel
TOTAL
Spend
£213,357,000
£517,710,000
£677,711,000
£227,062,000
£280,290,000
£1,916,130,000
11%
27%
35%
12%
15%
100%
%
All Direct Visitor Expenditure in the COOL Project area
Somerset
13%
Norfolk
24%
11%
Kent
27%
9%
Essex
20%
Accommodation
40%
Shopping
50%
Food and drink
15%
10%
38%
30%
16%
12%
32%
31%
10%
12%
35%
38%
6%
0%
36%
11%
11%
60%
70%
80%
Attractions/entertainment
14%
90%
Travel
100%
Norfolk – Direct visitor expenditure by category
Accommodation
• UK staying visitors
• Overseas staying visitors
£190,884,000
£22,473,000
Shopping
• UK staying visitors
• Overseas staying visitors
• Day visitors
£88,186,000
£22,802,000
£406,722,000
Food & drink
• UK staying visitors
• Overseas staying visitors
• Day visitors
£161,828,000
£18,083,000
£497,800,000
Attractions/entertainment
• UK staying visitors
• Overseas staying visitors
• Day visitors
£74,576,000
£9,222,000
£143,264,000
Travel
• UK staying visitors
• Overseas staying visitors
• Day visitors
£112,519,000
£8,118,000
£159,653,000
6
Norfolk – Other visitor related expenditure by category
Second Homes
£11,341,000
Boats
£1,912,650
Static vans
£14,231,100
Visiting friends and relatives (non-visitor spend)
£112,593,000
• Spend on second homes estimates cover rates, maintenance, and replacement of furniture and fittings.
• Spend on boats estimates cover berthing charges, servicing and maintenance and upgrading of equipment.
• Static van spend arises in the case of vans purchased by the owner and used as a second home. Expenditure is incurred in site fees, utility charges
and other spending.
6
• Additional spending is incurred by friends and relatives as a result of people coming to stay with them.
Norfolk – Business turnover
Turnover derived from trip expenditure
Staying visitor related
Day visitor related
Total
Accommodation
£216,955,000
£9,956,000
£226,911,000
Retailing
£109,878,000
£402,655,000
£512,533,000
Catering
£174,514,000
£482,866,000
£657,380,000
Attractions/entertainment
£86,707,000
£152,309,000
£239,016,000
Transport
£72,382,000
£95,792,000
£168,174,000
Arising from non trip spend
£140,077,750
£0
£0
Total Direct
£800,513,750
£1,143,578,000
£1,944,091,750
Staying visitor related
Day visitor related
Total
Direct
£800,513,750
£1,143,578,000
£1,944,091,750
Supplier and income induced
£475,994,000
£361,111,000
£837,105,000
£1,276,507,750
£1,504,689,000
£2,781,196,750
Total business turnover supported by
tourism activity
Total
6
33
Norfolk – Tourism related employment in the COOL Project context
Distribution of tourism related employment in the COOL Project
area (FTE’s)
Somerset, 13%
Essex, 29%
Norfolk, 27%
Kent, 31%
Area
Number of FTE’s
Essex
42,189
% of all county employment
16%
15%
14%
Kent
45,313
12%
11%
10%
Norfolk
40,467
10%
Somerset
19,386
8%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Essex
6
Kent
Norfolk
Somerset
Norfolk – Tourism related employment
Estimated actual employment
Direct
Indirect
Induced
Total
38,340
9,815
6,090
54,245
Full time equivalent employment (FTE’s)
Direct
Indirect
Induced
Total
26,516
8,610
5,342
40,467
Direct employment in businesses in receipt
of visitor expenditure (FTE’s)
Staying visitor related
Day visitor related
Total
3,626
166
3,793
Retailing
952
3,488
4,440
Catering
2,709
7,496
10,205
Attractions/entertainment
1,645
2,890
4,535
520
688
1,208
Arising from non trip spend
2,335
0
2,335
Total Direct
11,787
14,729
26,516
Accommodation
Transport
6
Cool Project 2012 – Economic Impact of the Visitor
Economy
Appendix 1
Methodology and FAQ
•
•
•
•
Sources and data
Terms used
Figures and statistics
The mathematical model
Sources and data
What is GBTS?
The Great Britain Tourism Survey is undertaken by TNS for VisitEngland and is
based on approximately 2,000 face-to-face interviews per week throughout the year
as part of TNS's RSGB Omnibus survey. It provides basic headline data on the
volume and value of domestic tourism, for England as a whole, for the English
regions and for the counties or unitary authorities.
What is IPS?
The International Passenger Survey is conducted by Office for National Statistics
and is based on face-to-face interviews with a sample of passengers travelling via
the principal airports, sea routes and the Channel Tunnel, together with visitors
crossing the land border into Northern Ireland. Around 0.2% of all travellers are
interviewed, with approximately 55,000 interviews of overseas visitors obtained
throughout the year. IPS provides headline figures, based on the county or unitary
authority, for the volume and value of overseas trips to the UK.
What is GBDVS?
In 2011, VisitEngland, Visit Scotland and Visit Wales commissioned a new survey to
measure volume and value of tourism day visits in England. A number of earlier
surveys were conducted to measure this key sector of the economy, most recently in
2005, but it has been difficult to make comparisons over time due to changing
definitions and survey methodologies. In the new survey, interviewing is carried out
weekly, using an online methodology, and an annual sample of over 38,000
interviews with GB adults. The GB Day Visits Survey is an Official Statistic, and is
produced in adherence with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics (2009).
What is the England Occupancy Survey?
As part of the EU Directive on Tourism Statistics adopted in 1995, the UK must
report regularly a specified range of statistics to Eurostat, the official statistical office
of the European Community. Included in these statistics are monthly occupancy
rates for UK serviced accommodation. The responsibility for providing this data lies
with the four National Tourist Boards. A sample of establishments are recruited to
the survey and asked to complete a data form each month, giving details of their
nightly room and bed occupancy. The data returned is processed and analysed to
produce monthly occupancy rates for the whole area and for specific types of
accommodation providers, size of establishment, location etc.
What is the ASHE?
The Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) provides information about the
levels, distribution and make-up of earnings and hours worked for employees in all
industries and occupations. The ASHE is a new survey developed to replace the
New Earnings Survey (NES) from 2004, including improvements to the coverage of
employees, imputation for item non-response and the weighting of earnings
estimates. The ASHE is based on a 1 per cent sample of employees in United
Kingdom
What is the Labour Force Survey?
The LFS is a household panel survey of employment, continuous since 1992, with
results produced each quarter. It has a sample of approximately 60,000 households.
The LFS is the government’s largest continuous household survey and participation
in the survey is voluntary. LFS data are weighted to enable population estimates to
be produced. The weighting also attempts to compensate for differential nonresponse among different subgroups in the population. LFS is designed to provide
information on the UK labour market that can be used to develop, manage and
evaluate labour market policies. Aspects reported include rates of employment,
unemployment and economic activity.
Terms used
What is a day visitor?
A day visitor is defined as someone making a day trip to and from home for leisure
purposes. The report excludes trips undertaken for business or study purposes. This
report presents data on those who took trips of at least 3 hours duration on an
irregular basis as defined by the GBDVS 2011. These are identified as tourism day
trips by the Department of Culture, Media and the Sport.
What is a staying visitor?
A visitor staying away from home for at least one night. Often measured in trips to
overcome the issue of one visitor making two or more trips to an area in a given
period.
What are VFR trips?
VFR trips are those where visiting friends or relatives is the main purpose for making
a trip. While many trips to visit friends and relatives will be accommodated in the
homes of these friends/relatives, some will make use of other forms of
accommodation. It should also be noted that other forms of trip, for instance for
holiday or business purposes, may stay with friends and relatives rather than in
commercial accommodation.
What is a multiplier?
Additional activity arising as a result of an initial direct input. Two forms of multiplier
are used in the model, namely indirect or supply multipliers, representing the
additional economic activity arising from the purchase of supplies and services by
businesses in direct receipt of tourism spending; and induced multipliers arising from
additional economic activity supported by the expenditure of wages earned by
employees in businesses supported directly or indirectly by tourism spending.
What are full time equivalent jobs (FTE’s)?
A FTE is defined as a job involving an input of 37 or more hours work per week for a
full year. For the purposes of the Model, the total number of FTE jobs is the number
of full time jobs that the number of actual jobs equates to. For example, 2 part time
all year round jobs, each covering 18.5 hours per week would equate to 1 FTE job.
What are actual jobs?
This figure gives the actual number of jobs, regardless of the amount of hours
worked or the seasonality of the employment. For example, 3 part time jobs and 2
full time jobs would equal 5 actual jobs. Many jobs are seasonal or part-time in
nature in the tourism sector, so an adjustment is made to calculate the actual
number of jobs from the number of FTEs. The adjustment is based on the findings of
surveys of tourism related businesses, and national employment surveys.
What are direct jobs
For the purposes of this model jobs have been categorised as direct, indirect or
induced. Direct jobs are those in businesses in receipt of visitor spending. For
example, jobs supported by visitor spending at a hotel would be direct jobs.
What are indirect jobs?
Indirect employment arises as a result of expenditure by businesses in direct receipt
of visitor expenditure on the purchase of goods and services for their businesses.
For example, some of the employment at a business supplying food and drink may
be supported through the supplies that the business sells to hotels (or any other
business in direct receipt of visitor expenditure).
What are induced jobs?
Induced jobs are those that are supported by the spending of wages by employees
in direct and indirect jobs. Such spending will be spread across a wide range of
service sectors.
What are total jobs?
Total jobs include those in tourism related businesses supported by tourist spending
and those indirectly arising or induced by spending across the service sector in
suppliers of goods and services.
Direct jobs + indirect jobs+ induced jobs = Total jobs
What is ‘other tourism spend’?
Apart from expenditure associated with the individual trips, some forms of activity
also involve ongoing expenditure on accommodation, for instance second home or
boat maintenance, or result in additional spending by non-visitors, for example
friends and relatives with whom the tourist is staying. These other areas of
expenditure are categorized as ‘other tourism spend’.
Figures and statistics
Why is there a ‘0’ in the trips column but there are nights spent in the
accommodation?
This oddity is due to rounding. Where the figure is less than 500 and the output is
rounded to nearest 1,000, it will record 0 as the figure.
What is the definition used to identify 'urban' and 'countryside' for day trips?
The Great Britain Day Visits survey collects data on urban, countryside and coastal
trips, but the definition depends on the respondent rather than a specific definition.
The distribution of leisure day trips in the model uses, firstly, visits to attractions in
urban, coastal and countryside locations and then allocates the remaining bulk of
trips by specific drivers. In the case of town trips, the driver is the number of
employees in the retail and entertainment sectors as defined in the Annual Business
Inquiry. The main attraction for town trips tend to be shopping, visiting friends and
relatives and trips to theatre, cinema etc, and the retail and entertainment sectors
are regarded as a proxy measure of the attractiveness of the district for such trips.
The Mathematical model
Introduction
This report examines the volume and value of tourism and the impact of that
expenditure on the local economy in 2012. The figures were derived using the
Cambridge Economic Impact Model and undertaken by TSE Research. The model
utilises information from national tourism surveys and regionally based data held by
TSE. It distributes regional activity as measured in those surveys to local areas
using ‘drivers’ such as the accommodation stock and occupancy which influence the
distribution of tourism activity at local level.
How does the model work?
The Cambridge Model is a computer-based model developed to calculate estimates
of the volume, value and economic impact of tourism on a County or District basis.
It draws on the combined experience of PA Cambridge Economic Consultants Ltd,
Geoff Broom Associates and the Regional Tourist Boards and utilises a standard
methodology capable of application throughout the UK. It therefore offers the
potential for direct comparisons with similar destinations throughout the country. The
approach was the subject of independent validation (R.Vaughan, Bournemouth
University) in December 1994. The Model was judged robust and the margins of
error acceptable and in line with other modelling techniques.
.
Limitations of the Model
The methodology and accuracy of the above sources varies. The results of the
model should therefore be regarded as estimates which are indicative of the scale
and importance of visitor activity in the local area. It is important to note that in the
national tourism surveys the sample sizes for each area changes year on year. This
is as a result of the random probability nature of the methodology. As such, the
results of the Cambridge Model are best viewed as a snapshot in time and we would
caution against year-on-year comparisons.
It should be noted that the model cannot take into account any leakage of
expenditure from tourists taking day trips out of the area in which they are staying.
While it is assumed that these may broadly balance each other in many areas, in
locations receiving significant numbers of day visitors from London, there is likely to
be an underestimate in relation to the number of overseas day visitors staying in
holiday accommodation in London.
Whilst it is important to be aware of these issues, we are confident that the estimates
we have produced are as reliable as is practically possible within the constraints of
the information available.
Rounding
All figures used in this report have been rounded. In some tables there may
therefore be a slight discrepancy between totals and sub totals.
Data sources
The main national surveys used as data sources in stage one include:
•
Great Britain Tourism Survey (GBTS) providing information on tourism activity
by UK residents;
•
International Passenger Survey (IPS) providing information on overseas
visitors to the United Kingdom;
•
2011 Day Visits in Great Britain Survey using information on visits lasting
more than 3 hours and taken on an irregular basis
These surveys provide information down to a regional level. In order to disaggregate
data to a local level the following information sources are used:
•
Records of known local accommodation stock held by Regional Tourist
Boards;
•
Tourist Board surveys of Visits to Attractions, which provide data on the
number of visitors to individual tourist attractions within their area;
•
Registrar General’s estimates of resident population as based on the 2011
Census of Population;
•
Selected data from the 2011 Census of Employment;
•
Selected data on the countryside and coast including, national designations
and length of the coastline.
Staying Visitors
The GBTS provides information on the total number of trips to the region and the
relative proportions using different types of accommodation. By matching these
figures to the supply of such accommodation, the regional average number of trips
per bedspace or unit of accommodation can be derived. The IPS provides
information on the total number of trips by overseas visitors to the region.
Day Visitors
Information on day trips at the regional level is available from the Great Britain Day
Visits survey. The survey includes all leisure-related trips from home. It should be
noted that a large proportion are local trips made by people resident in the locality.
The model uses information from the survey to estimate the number of longer day
trips and irregular trips lasting more than 3 hours.
Seasonality
Estimates of seasonality provided in the report are based on county level data for
Domestic Visitors and regional data for Overseas and Day Visitors.
Impact of tourism expenditure
This section examines the impact of the tourism expenditure in terms of the direct,
indirect and induced expenditure as well as an estimate of the actual jobs (both
direct and indirect) supported by tourism expenditure in the district.
The GBTS, IPS and GBDV survey data on the breakdown of visitor spending; The
New Earnings Survey which provides information on wage levels by industry sector
and region; An internal business database which includes data on the structure of
business expenditure, local linkages and multiplier ratios drawn from a wide range of
business and economic studies carried out by Geoff Broom Associates, PA
Cambridge Economic Consultants and others. By applying the breakdown to the
estimates of visitor spending, the model generates estimates of total spending.
Evidence from national studies suggests that some minor adjustments are required
to match visitor spend to business turnover – for example, some expenditure on food
and drink actually takes place in inns and hotels that fall in the accommodation
sector and within attractions. More significantly, expenditure on travel costs
associated with individual trips is equally likely to take place at the origin of the trip
as the destination. Therefore the model assumes that only 40% of travel
expenditure accrues to the destination area.
Number of full time job equivalents
Having identified the value of turnover generated by visitor spending, it is possible to
estimate the employment associated with that spending. Wages for staff and
drawings for the proprietors will absorb a proportion of that turnover. By applying
these proportions to the overall additional turnover in each sector, the amount of
money absorbed by employment costs can be calculated. The New Earnings
Survey provides data from which the average costs by business sector, adjusted to
take account of regional differences, can be calculated (the Visit Britain publication,
Employment Generated by Tourism in Britain was also used) After allowing for
additional costs such as National Insurance and pension costs, an average
employment cost per full time equivalent job can be estimated. The number of such
jobs in the local area can then be estimated by dividing the amount of business
expenditure on wages and drawings by the average employment cost per job.
Number of Actual Jobs
The model generates estimates of full time equivalent jobs based on visitor
spending. However, the total number of actual jobs will be higher when part time
and seasonal working is taken into account. The full time equivalent jobs arising
directly from visitor spending are converted into actual jobs using information from
business surveys in the sectors receiving visitor spending. In general, the
conversion factor varies around 1.5 in those sectors.
The indirect and induced jobs arise across a much wider range of employment
sectors. Therefore, the average 1.16 for all sectors based on Census of
Employment data has been used to convert full time equivalent jobs in this sector to
actual jobs.
The employment estimates generated by the model include both self-employed and
employed people supported by visitor expenditure. The model also includes an
estimate of the additional jobs arising in the attractions sector, which are not related
to visitor expenditure. However, the numbers do not include other tourism-related
employment such as jobs in local authorities arising from their tourism functions, e.g.
tourist information staff, additional public health, parks and gardens, public
conveniences, maintenance sections and jobs arising from capital investment in
tourism facilities.
Common Abbreviations
ASHE:
Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings
AONB:
Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty
DCMS:
Department for Culture, Media and Sport
GBDVS:
Great Britain Day Visits Survey
FTE:
Full Time Equivalent job
GDP:
Gross Domestic Product
GVA:
Gross Value Added
IPS:
International Passenger Survey
RCDF:
Regional Cultural Data Framework
GBTS:
Great Britain Tourist Survey
UNESCO:
United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organisation
VFR:
Visiting Friends and Relatives
2012
The Year in Context
Without a doubt, 2012 delivered some of the most awe-inspiring events and anniversaries ever celebrated by this country and created unprecedented opportunities
to position England as one of the most exciting destinations on Earth.
During the same year, the industry battled against a complex set of challenges affecting various sectors in a myriad of different ways across the country depending
on their offering, location and the fluctuating local delivery landscape. Overall the year 2012 was the wettest in England on record, and 2nd wettest in the UK
since 1910, particularly from April onwards. Temperatures and sunshine were around average; however, sunshine was below average during the summer.
A look at the numbers is incredibly revealing. The economy remained sluggish, the summer was the wettest for a century and the Olympics, though widely enjoyed,
changed the pattern of demand for goods and services. Whilst economic conditions continued to be broadly conducive to growing domestic tourism during 2012/13,
prolonged macro-economic conditions impacted on consumers’ willingness to spend their disposable income. Against this background, it is perhaps not surprising
that the number of domestic overnight tourism trips in England remained flat whilst day visits grew by an impressive 12 per cent compared to 2011. Positively, the
amount spent on overnight trips increased by a record high of 9 per cent, ensuring overall figures are still well above pre-recession levels.
The events of 2012 provided the best advertisement for England we could have ever wished for. We know from research undertaken by Visit England that the feel
good factor generated by the Diamond Jubilee, Torch Relay and London 2012 Olympic & Paralympic Games meant that 60 per cent of Brits felt more proud to be
British, with 20 per cent saying they planned to take more breaks in England.
Source - VE Annual report 2013
2012 Month by Month Impacts
Weather impacts
The month began with very mild conditions, but a
succession of active Atlantic depressions gave
some stormy weather during the first week, with a
major winter storm on 3rd affecting southern
Scotland in particular. It was quieter in midmonth, with some low night-time temperatures,
then rather more unsettled generally, with mainly
westerly winds bringing weather fronts. A broad
swathe of cold air spread in from the east at
month's end.
In England and Wales, impacts included fallen
trees, overturned lorries and building damage. The
QE2 bridge on the M25 was closed for several
hours as was the port of Dover. The event caused
at least two fatalities.
January
Very strong winds overnight 4th / 5th caused further
damage and disruption, particularly in eastern and
northern England. The QE2 bridge on the M25 was
again closed, with restrictions on the Humber and
Severn bridges. Fallen trees and overturned lorries
blocked many roads. Some train services were
also disrupted due to trees and overhead wire
problems.
There were strong winds again on 12th and 21st, but
impacts were generally limited. The remainder of
the month saw localised upland snow in various
parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland, and central &
western England and Wales. This and icy roads
caused some minor transport disruption.
Economic impacts
The UK economic activity shrank by 0.2% in the last
three months of 2011 according to official figures
published in January 2012. It marks a sharp drop
in economic activity from the third quarter of
2011, when gross domestic product (GDP)
expanded by 0.6%. The figures, from the Office for
National Statistics (ONS), are a preliminary
estimate, which could be revised either up or
down by 0.2% The ONS figures also show that the
economy grew by 0.9% during 2011 in line with
official targets.
The quarterly fall in GDP is the first since the last
three months of 2010, when freezing weather was
blamed for a 0.5% drop. The new figure was worse
than had been feared, as most economists had
pencilled in a 0.1% fall in activity.
The contraction was driven by a 0.9% fall in
manufacturing, a 4.1% drop in electricity and gas
production as the warm weather caused people to
turn down heating, and a 0.5% fall in construction
sector. Meanwhile, the services sector, which
accounts for two-thirds of the economy, ground to
a halt. The new figures came a day after the
governor of the Bank of England, Sir Mervyn King,
said that the UK faces an arduous path to
economic recovery.
Event impacts
Weather impacts
High pressure over Europe resulted in a very cold
spell during the first 12 days with some sharp
frosts and snowfalls, especially across England.
Western Scotland and Northern Ireland were soon
influenced by Atlantic airstreams and this milder
weather had spread to all parts by the 13th.
Thereafter, these westerly airstreams dominated
giving generally mild weather, occasionally very
mild in the last 10 days, with cloud most frequent
in the west and any rain restricted to northwestern areas.
February
Cold weather during the first 12 days brought
sharp frosts, icy roads and some snow, especially
to the eastern half of England. Late on the 4th,
several centimetres of snow fell widely across
central and eastern England with over 12 cm in
places. This resulted in travel disruption overnight
and into the 5th, notably cancellation and delays to
flights from Heathrow and lengthy delays to traffic
on routes such as the M25 and M40. On the 9th,
freezing rain fell across northern England causing
treacherous conditions on roads and pavements.
About 100 road accidents were reported from
Cumbria, and hospital A&E departments dealt with
hundreds of falls on icy pavements. Further snow
fell across central and eastern England later on the
9th with difficult driving conditions. The
continuing very low temperatures forced the
postponement of sports fixtures during the
weekend 11th / 12th, including some football and
rugby matches and horse race meetings.
A very mild westerly airstream towards the end of
the month brought unusually high temperatures
but plenty of low cloud and fog to some southwestern areas.
Economic impacts
The outlook for the economy is improving, but
higher unemployment, rising oil prices and public
sector spending cuts could yet make things worse.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics
showed the volume of spending in the high street
and online rose by 0.9% in January. The increase –
which meant consecutive rises in December and
January for the first time in eight years – cheered
the City, which was expecting a fall after a better
than forecast Christmas.
Several retailers reported a bounce in sales over
the period, with House of Fraser, Sainsbury and
Majestic Wine in the lead. Even Dixons held up
well. However, The British Retail Consortium
reported a drop in sales in January, so the picture
was mixed. The Christmas rush was fuelled by
consumers running up more debt.
The widely predicted housing crash did not
happen. Prices slipped, especially in the north and
west of the country, but in many parts of London
and the south east they remained at pre-crash
levels and even continued to rise. Mortgage
approvals were at a two-year high, a figure backed
by Midlands’s house builder Redrow, which said
there are plenty of people who want to buy. One
City analyst recently warned of a "lost decade" as
strict lending rules and a dearth of buyers dampen
demand.
Event impacts
The Olympics are coming to London but
the feel good factor is being spread
around. There will be football at
St James' Park in Newcastle and Old
Trafford in Manchester, along with sailing
in Weymouth Bay. By the time of the
opening ceremony, organisers hope that
almost 11m tickets will have been sold.
Tourist revenue should be up, with hopes
that visitors will take the time to hop on
the train to visit all corners of the
country. A clutch of gold medals will
make everyone forget David Cameron's
broken Britain slogan. England are also in
the European football championship in
June, which could encourage more
spending on barbecue food and drink.
But it's hard to see a victory and 1966style increase in productivity.
The diamond jubilee is gearing up to be
the mother of all tea parties, with cynics
and republicans cast aside in favour of
joyfulness and, probably, more huge sales
of food and drink. There is the Big Lunch
– a sort of community street party – and
the pageant on the Thames, when up to
1,000 boats will chug up the Thames. The
Queen will travel in the royal barge. At a
time of deep uncertainty over the UK's
economic situation, the celebration could
bring back the feel good factor that put in
an appearance at Will and Kate's wedding
during 2011.
Weather impacts
Most of the month was influenced by high
pressure, although there were short unsettled
spells during the month as well. Eastern England
received some welcome rainfall on 4th, 5th and
17th, but apart from this much of the month was
dry, adding to mounting concerns about drought.
As well as the dryness, the period 23rd-30th was
remarkably sunny across virtually the whole of the
UK. Daytime temperatures rose strongly, with
many new station records being set.
March
Despite welcome rainfall across much of eastern
England early in the month, drought conditions
persisted across East Anglia, the Midlands and
southern England with continuing concerns for
farming, water resources and the environment
generally. The sustained dry weather and the
warmth of the last week resulted in wildfires in
various areas including south Wales, Surrey and
the Scottish Borders.
Fog was an issue for some parts of central and
southern England during the opening days of the
month. During the early hours of 15th, a five-lorry
pile-up occurred on the M1 in Nottinghamshire:
several people were taken to hospital and the
motorway was closed for most of the morning.
Later in the month, quiet high-pressure conditions
led to some foggy nights and a number of
overnight / early morning warnings. An accident
occurred on the M5 in the West Midlands on the
morning of the 24th, in which two people lost their
lives and 28 were injured. In both instances, poor
visibility may have been a contributory factor.
Economic impacts
The UK economy will grow more quickly during
2012 than previously forecast, Chancellor George
Osborne said during March 2012. The
independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)
forecast growth of 0.8% in 2012, compared with its
autumn estimate of 0.7%. The OBR also estimated
that the government will borrow £1bn less than
previously forecast this year.
The OBR confirmed that the government was on
course to eliminate the structural current deficit by
2016-17.
The UK economy shrank by 0.2% in the fourth
quarter of last year, but Mr Osborne said the OBR
expected the UK to avoid a technical recession defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction
- and forecast positive growth for the first three
months of this year. However, while slightly better
economic growth is expected this year, the growth
forecast for 2013 was revised down.
The OBR now projects 2% growth in 2013, down
from the 2.1% it estimated in November. In 2014
the economy is expected to grow by 2.7%, while
growth of 3% is projected in both 2015 and 2016,
in line with the previous forecast.
Mr Osborne said that the crisis in the Eurozone
remained a major risk to the OBR's forecast, while
another risk came from a "further spike in oil
prices".
Event impacts
Weather impacts
April 2012 was the coldest since 1989 and wettest
for 100 years with low pressure over or near the
UK for most of the month and some areas seeing
three times their usual average rainfall. The
weather was mostly unsettled with numerous
showery days. The Easter bank holiday weekend
in particular (6th-9th April) saw cloudy and mostly
light rain conditions with the rain becoming
heavier in the West on Easter Monday.
April
Economic impacts
April saw the announcement that UK GDP shrank
0.2% in the first three months of 2012, sending
Britain into its first double-dip recession since
the 1970s. The squeeze on household spending
power continued for those who had managed to
stay in work, with average pay excluding bonuses
increasing at an annual rate of 2% – much
weaker than the 3.5% rate of inflation during
March 2012.
Event impacts
Weather impacts
The first three weeks of the month were
dominated by cool and, at times, unsettled
conditions — continuing the wet theme of much
of April. A marked improvement occurred from
the 21st of the month with a much warmer and
more settled spell. Temperatures rose above
27 °C at least somewhere in the UK each day from
the 23rd to the 28th of May. With prolonged
sunshine, it was particularly warm across Highland
Scotland, and a new May temperature record for
Scotland was set on 25th.
May
Economic impacts
The month saw announcements that the UK
economy shrank by 0.3% in the first three
months of the year, more than previously
thought and compared with the initial estimate
the month before from the Office for National
Statistics (ONS) which showed a contraction of
0.2%.
In the final three months of 2011, the economy
shrank by 0.3%, meaning the UK was back in
recession. Concerns were announced that the
UK economy would shrink again in the second
quarter of the year - the governor of the Bank of
the England Mervyn King also warned that the
Queen's Diamond Jubilee could reduce output.
Event impacts
Due to the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee
celebrations, the Whitsun school halfterm holiday which usually falls in the last
week of May was moved to coincide with
the two additional bank holidays on
Monday 4th and Tuesday 5th June. This
was likely to have impacted heavily on
business performance results compared
with the month of May last year.
Weather impacts
It was the wettest June across the UK since 1910
(wetter than June 2007), and the equal-wettest
June in England and Wales since 1766 (shared
with June 1860). The weather during the month
was dominated by low pressure over or close to
the UK, with associated weather fronts. These
brought rather cool days, some very large rainfall
totals and also some strong winds early in the
month. There was an almost complete absence of
warm, settled spells. The unsettled weather of
the first few days of the month affected some of
the Diamond Jubilee celebrations including the
Thames pageant on the 3rd June.
June
Economic impacts
Official figures announced during the month
showed that the UK economy shrank by 0.4% in
the final three months of 2011, compared with
previous estimates of a fall of 0.3%. The
estimate for the first quarter of this year was
unchanged, showing the economy shrank by
0.3% in that period. The estimates showed the
recession was deeper than previously thought.
The figures showed that household spending was
constrained with expenditure falling 0.1%
compared with a previous estimate of 0.1%
growth. That was driven by lower spending on
financial services which was offset to some
extent by an increase in spending on food and
drink and leisure.
The weak picture of the economy was further
underlined by figures also released during the
month which showed that government spending
rose between January and March at its fastest
rate in nearly seven years. Vicky Redwood, chief
UK economist at Capital Economics said the
figures boded ill for the rest of the year,
particularly because of the effect of the Queen's
Jubilee holiday: "Given the negative impact of
June's extra bank holiday, GDP is likely to have
contracted again in the second quarter.“
Event impacts
Due to the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee
celebrations, the Whitsun school halfterm holiday which usually falls in the last
week of May was moved to coincide with
the two additional bank holidays on
Monday 4th and Tuesday 5th June. This is
likely to have impacted heavily on
business performance results compared
with the month of June last year.
Weather impacts
July was generally cool, wet and dull. Mean
temperatures over the UK were 1.0°C below
average during the month. It was the coolest July
since 2000. Like June, July was also wetter than
normal, especially over much of England, eastern
and southern Scotland. The period June and July
2012 was consequently the second wettest across
the UK since 1910, behind only 2007. In July,
sunshine amounts were generally below normal
(81%).
July
Economic impacts
Latest official figures released during the month
of July showed that the UK recession had
deepened after the output of the economy fell
by 0.7% between April and June 2012. The
contraction was much bigger than expected and
followed a 0.3% drop in the first three months of
the year. The Office for National Statistics said
the fall was largely due to a sharp slowdown in
the construction sector and said it was not yet
sure of the size of the effect of the poor weather
and the extra June bank holiday meaning that
the figures, which were the first estimate for
what happened in the economy between April
and June, were more uncertain than usual.
Event impacts
The 2012 Olympics took place in London
from the 27th July to 12th August 2012.
The first event, the group stages in
women’s football, began two days
earlier, on the 25th July. More than
10,000 athletes from 204 National
Olympic Committees (NOC’s)
participated. London became the first
city to officially host the modern Olympic
Games three times having previously
done so in 1908 and 1948. The Games
received widespread acclaim for their
organisation, with the volunteers, the
British military and public enthusiasm
praised particularly highly.
Weather impacts
The weather was mainly influenced by low
pressure over or to the west of the UK, bringing
cloudy conditions and showers or longer periods
of rain on many days especially in the west and
north. The south-east of England saw the driest
and warmest weather. Slow-moving thundery
downpours on the 5th caused localised flooding of
properties and travel disruption in various parts of
England, Wales and Scotland. Worst hit were
Pembrokeshire, Cheshire, Devon, Tyneside and
the Scottish Borders. Heavy showers led to further
flooding in Tyneside on the 6th. However, the
Olympic events in SE England in early August
enjoyed largely fine, dry conditions.
August
Further downpours caused localised surface
flooding of roads in Wales and SW England on the
16th, in NW Scotland on the 22nd and parts of
Lancashire on the 23rd. Bank Holiday Monday
(27th) saw further rain across many western
areas. Prolonged heavy rain in Cumbria on the
29th led to some localised flooding of properties
and a landslip on a rail line in west Cumbria. It
was reported that the generally wet and cloudy
summer weather had adversely affected the yield
of many fruit, vegetable and cereal crops.
Economic impacts
Official figures released during August 2012
showed that the UK economy shrank by less than
previously thought between April and June 2012.
Revised data from the Office for National
Statistics (ONS) showed the economy contracted
by 0.5% during the quarter, less than the 0.7% it
announced during July. The ONS said output in
the construction sector was higher than it had
previously estimated. Whilst performance
wasn’t quite so bad as first predicted, the
economy was still contracting in the second
quarter of the year. Revisions to industrial
production and construction, as widely
predicted, reduced the scale of the overall fall in
output. Given the Bank of England reported that
the extra Bank Holiday in June reduced growth
by 0.5%, it could be argued that, after accounting
for that, the economy was flat between April and
June. But the underlying picture remained that
the economy was stagnant.
Event impacts
The Olympic Games took place between
the 27th of July and the 12th of August,
with the Paralympic Games taking place
between the 29th of August and the 9th
of September. These events may have
affected trip-taking patterns.
Weather impacts
The first half of September was fine and
reasonably warm, except in north-western areas,
but the month became progressively more
unsettled and quite cool for all of the UK. A
notably deep depression brought large amounts
of rainfall and high winds to many areas from the
23rd to the 26th. The second half of the month
was cooler than the first, even relative to normal,
with a few overnight frosts in the north.
September
In stark contrast, an unusually vigorous area of
low pressure brought very unsettled weather to
most parts from the 23rd to the 26th, giving
particularly high rainfall totals (most notably
130 mm at Ravensworth, North Yorkshire, over a
3-day period) and some strong winds. Prolonged
heavy rainfall across SW England overnight 23rd /
24th resulted in some transport disruption, with
localised flooding of roads, and main rail routes
closed for a time. During the 24th, heavy rain
moved north, bringing disruption to road and rail
journeys in the West Midlands, North Wales and
northern England. On the 25th, strong winds in
eastern Scotland resulted in fallen trees, power
cuts, and restrictions on road bridges. Rail
services on the East Coast mainline and roads and
properties in NE England were further affected by
flooding. By the 26th, there were concerns about
the rising levels of rivers across northern England,
such as the River Ouse at York, and also across
north Wales. Around 600 homes and businesses
were reported to have been flooded across
England and Wales since the 23rd.
Economic impacts
Without the extra bank holiday granted to
celebrate her majesty's diamond jubilee, the
economy would probably have emerged from its
double-dip recession in the spring and early
summer - but only just. That was the main
message from the revised data for second
quarter growth released by the Office for
National Statistics during September 2012.
Having originally estimated a 0.7% contraction in
activity, the ONS changed that to a 0.5% drop in
its first revision and believed that gross domestic
product fell by 0.4% in the three months to the
end of June. The extra day off is believed to have
cost the country 0.5% in lost production, so once
this is stripped out the underlying position was
probably marginally positive.
Event impacts
October
Weather impacts
The month brought a typical autumnal mix of
showers and rain for much of the time, but with a
couple of short settled spells. It was rather cool
overall, with the first few widespread frosts of the
season, and the north east experienced some
significant snow accumulations towards the end
of the month mainly across higher ground. There
were a few days of heavy rainfall in certain areas,
notably the 5th, 11th and 31st. On 11th October
an area of low pressure brought some intense
downpours to parts of the south and west; flash
flooding occurred in Clovelly (Devon) and flooding
was also reported across parts of west Wales. On
18th October, strong north-west winds combined
with unusually high tides to cause some coastal
flooding in Devon and Cornwall; a number of
properties were flooded in Lynmouth,
Mevagissey, Looe and Kingsbridge.
Economic impacts
The National Institute for Economic and Social
Research (NIESR) reported that the economy
grew 0.8% in the last three months of 2012
compared with a year ago but the outlook
remained "weak" despite experiencing a recent
growth spurt. It was the best performance since
July 2010, but NIESR attributed it to special
events, including the Olympics. The economics
research group said that the UK would return to
its trend growth rate of 0.2%-0.3% in the coming
months.
The September output figure was flattered by
the value of Olympic ticket sales, while the
additional bank holiday for the Royal Wedding
also reduced output in the comparable period a
year ago. Overall output remained almost 4%
below its peak level in 2008, making this easily
the worst performance by the UK economy since
before the 1930’s. Meanwhile, the International
Monetary Fund significantly downgraded its own
growth forecast for the UK expecting the
economy to shrink by 0.4% during 2012. As
recently as July it had been expecting positive
growth of 0.2%.
Event impacts
Weather impacts
The month opened with a showery and cool
regime, and there were frosts in some areas, but
for much of the time between 6th and 14th
pressure was higher and milder air covered the
country. An exceptionally wet spell from 19th to
26th brought widespread disruption from flooding
and landslips; some areas had up to twice the
whole month’s normal rainfall amount within the
space of a week. The last few days of the month
were much colder, drier and brighter with some
snow in the north. A small low pressure system
brought heavy rain, strong winds and some snow
across southern England on 4th. This caused
localised flooding resulting in transport disruption
across the south, while over 5 cm of snow fell
across parts of Somerset, Wiltshire, South
Gloucestershire and north Dorset.
November
For England and Wales, the 7-day period from 20
to 26th November was one of the wettest weeks
in the last 50 years. A succession of heavy rain
events affected a swathe from Devon to northeast England. The floods and storms led sadly to
several fatalities. There were widespread flooding
problems, particularly to transport routes with
flooding of roads and landslips, and in total well
over 1000 properties were flooded. Most
dramatically, a bank of the Great Western canal
collapsed near Tiverton, draining the canal into
the surrounding land. Many roads and rail
services - including both main railway lines from
the south-west to London - were closed due to
flooding and landslips. In Exeter, a large retaining
wall collapsed. In Plymouth, there was some
structural damage reported due to high winds.
Economic impacts
The west's leading economic think tank forecast
Britain's economy would contract by less than
feared during 2012 but warned recovery will be
slow and uncertain against a worsening
international backdrop. In its half-yearly
forecasts, the Paris-based Organisation for
Economic Co-operation and Development said
the global slowdown, the Eurozone crisis, the
government's deficit reduction programme and
the paying down of consumer debt were all
acting as a brake on growth.
The OECD said it expected UK national output to
shrink by 0.1% in 2012, a less gloomy prediction
than the 0.7% contraction it had pencilled in
back in August before news of the 1% expansion
in activity in the third quarter of 2012. "Growth
is projected to recover gradually and gain
momentum towards the end of 2013, as exports
and household spending pick up as confidence
recovers", the think tank said in its economic
outlook. The OECD, which has 34 rich country
members, added: "Although employment grew
strongly in 2012, unemployment is expected to
rise slightly in 2013, as the subdued recovery and
continued uncertainty may make firms hesitant
to hire. “
Event impacts
The half term holiday ran into early
November 2012 (29/10-02/11) whereas
in 2011 it was entirely in October (24/1028/10).
Weather impacts
The month began generally unsettled with wintry
showers bringing some snow to the north and
east of the UK, particularly over higher ground. A
brief change to anti-cyclonic conditions then
brought some colder frostier conditions. The
second half of the month was mild but very
unsettled again as a sequence of Atlantic fronts
brought persistent heavy rain at times.
December
Thick fog, freezing fog, and ice caused some
hazardous conditions and travel disruption in
parts of the country during the first half of the
month. A number of flights out of London
airports were cancelled on the 12th. A
combination of rain, wind, and high tides resulted
in coastal flooding on the 14th/15th for southwest England and Scotland. 30 properties were
reported flooded in Looe (Cornwall), while around
60 people were evacuated in north-west Scotland.
A section of the harbour wall collapsed in
Lossiemouth.
Further rain, on already saturated ground, caused
significant disruption in the latter part of the
month with flood warnings issued and defences
raised across the UK. Roads were closed due to
flooding in Scotland on 20th, six villages in
Cornwall were flooded, and 80 homes in
Wellington (Somerset) were evacuated. Roads
and railway lines were also affected in parts of the
country. The wet weather continued over the
Christmas holiday period, causing disruption to
both road and rail travel. On the 22nd, rail
operators were advising people not to attempt to
travel to parts of south-west England beyond
Taunton (Somerset) due to flooding, and trains
Economic impacts
There was bad news for chancellor George
Osborne as official figures showed growth in the
UK economy was slower than initially thought in
the third quarter, along with deterioration in
public finances during the previous month. The
Office for National Statistics had said the UK
economy grew by 1% in the third quarter but
that was revised down to 0.9%. Separate figures
from the ONS showed that the government
borrowed more than expected in November, as
spending rose but tax receipts fell from a year
earlier. Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight said:
"The disappointing November public finance
data fuel mounting expectations that at least one
of the credit rating agencies will strip the UK of
its triple A rating in 2013.“ Archer also said it
"looks touch and go" as to whether the economy
can avoid renewed contraction in the fourth
quarter.
Data from the ONS showed the key services
sector – which accounts for three quarters of
GDP – grew by just 0.1% in October, suggesting a
weak start to the last three months of the year.
Activity was much weaker and the UK economy
may well have shrunk in the fourth quarter. Real
consumer spending was now estimated to have
risen by 0.4% rather than 0.6% in the third
quarter of 2012 so without the Olympics boost,
spending may well have fallen.
The UK emerged from recession in the third
quarter of 2012, when the economy was lifted by
London hosting the Games, providing a boost to
consumer spending. But economists feared that
effect was now fading and output could fall again
Event impacts
were also not running between Cardiff and
Swansea in south Wales. In Braunton (north
Devon) the river Caen burst its banks, flooding
homes and shops in the town. A number of
homes were evacuated due to landslips in
Ystalyfera and Pontypridd in south Wales. The
Thames barrier was raised on the 27th to reduce
the risk of the high tide exacerbating flood risk on
the Thames
Data sources:
Met Office monthly summary reports
BBC News
The Guardian
ONS
in the final quarter and warned that another
quarter of contraction early in the New Year of
2013 could see the UK falling into a 'triple-dip'
recession. Public sector borrowing, meanwhile,
came in at £17.5bn, considerably higher than the
£16.3bn in November 2011, and way above
forecasts for a total of £16bn. That brought
borrowing for the fiscal year to £92.7bn. There
was one bright spot in the figures, which showed
the current account deficit narrowed from
£17.4bn to £12.8bn in the third quarter of 2012.