Exams Office UNIVERSITY OF WARWICK Proposal Form for New or Revised Modules (MA1- version 2) For consideration by the Undergraduate Studies Committee/Sub-Faculty or Graduate Studies Committee only. 1. Title of Module: Statistics for Finance 2. New or Revised Module: New module? [] Revised module? [ ] Level: M If this module replaces an existing approved module specify the code and title of the module to be discontinued and date on which change will occur: 3. Date of Introduction: September 2008 4. Department Responsible for Teaching: Statistics Name of Module Leader: Professor A J Lawrance 5. Availability/Location of module within courses: Degree Title Year of Code study MSc Financial Mathematics 6. Core / optional ? 1 Option list A,B or C core Consultation with other Departments: Mathematics, Business School 7. Context: Follows first half of ST908 Probability and Stochastic processes 8 CATS* Exams Office 8. Module Aims: To present introductory statistics in a quantitative finance context, taking introductory probability from the first half of ST908 as its theoretical base and to present relevant aspects of statistical methodology together with their underlying theory, computational and graphical aspects, and financial applications. The course deals with statistical data, both as distributions of single variables and in modelling relationships between variables. Statistical estimation and formal assessment of uncertainty are covered. It aims to provide the student with the background and skills to be able to analyze financial data with standard statistical analysis techniques, and to critically understand presentations of statistical data in financial contexts. 9. Learning Outcomes: Learning outcomes By the end of the module the student should be able to demonstrate a basic knowledge and understanding of: Subject Knowledge and Understanding Which teaching and learning methods enable students to achieve this learning outcome? Which assessment methods will measure the achievement of this learning outcome? A good understanding of basic statistical ideas, as applied in the finance area Lectures and tutorials Course exercises - 1 Ability to carry out statistical analysis of financial data, both for single variables and for relationships between variables Lectures and course assessment exercises in analysing financial data Course exercises - 2 Ability to efficiently and critically use statistical software to carry out and graphically present statistically-based conclusions Lectures and use of statistical software in course assessment exercises; experience from earlier marked exercises Course mini-project Lectures and tutorials Course exercises and mini- project Cognitive Skills Be able to appreciate the relevance of statistical analysis to the understanding of financial data 9 Exams Office Subject - specific/ professional skills Be able to understand the theoretical basis of various methods of statistical analysis in finance Key Skills Be able to handle and analyze statistical data in respect of its financial implications using statistical software 10. Lectures tutorials, and marked exercises Course exercises and mini- project Tutorials, exercises and mini-project Course exercises and mini- project Syllabus: 1. The population-sample paradigm of statistics, inductive/deductive aspects, relationship to probability theory. Random variables as models of data. Graphical aspects of data distributions, such as probability plots. 2. Probability distributions, such as Normal, logNormal, t , high kurtosis distributions and fat tail distributions for extreme behaviour; mathematical calculation of distributional properties, and their particular financial applicabilities. 3. Matching distributions to data and the need for parameter estimation. Idea of likelihood and its use in estimating parameters. 4. Statistical relationships between variables by regression. Ideas of residuals to explore inadequacies and improve analysis. 5. Formal assessment of uncertainty in statistics, confidence intervals, tests of significance. 11. Illustrative Bibliography: D Rupert, Statistics and Finance: An Introduction, Springer Verlag, 2006 J Franke, W Hardle, C Hafner, Statistics of Financial Markets, Springer, 2004 A J McNeil, R Frey & P Embrechts, Quantitative Risk Management, Princeton University Press, 2005 12. Teaching: Lectures per week Seminars per week Tutorials per week Laboratory sessions Total contact hours Module duration (weeks, if applicable) Other (please describe):e.g. distancelearning, intensive weekend teaching 10 1 x 2 hour lecture 0 1 0 15 5 Exams Office 13. Assessment Methods: Type of assessment Examination Course assessed exercises 14. Length One-hour of ST906 % weighting 90 10% Resources: Signature of Module Leader: Tony Lawrance 29 August 2007 Date Signature of Chair of Department: Date 11