Hogs, Chickens and Alcohol – Can
They All Get Along?
The 2008 Pork and Poultry Outlook
Presented by:
John C. McKissick
Department of Agricultural and Applied
Economics
and Center for Agribusiness & Economic
Development
www.caed.uga.edu
College of Agricultural
and Environmental Sciences
The University of Georgia
Poultry Importance to Southeast
DECEMBER 1 BREEDING HOGS AND PIGS 2006
(1000 Head)
4
18
5
5
0.4
25
103
16
0.3
Hawaii
4.1
155
0.2
US Total 6012
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA/NASS
0.5
590
55
140
350
360
2
35
85
30
1.1
NH 0.5
MA 1.5
RI 0.5
CT 0.7
NJ 0.5
DE 2.5
MD 7
1010
22
30
35
95
105
170
440 330
170
12
110
1080
365
20
Alaska
VT
33
19
38
60 to 1,080 (17)
20 to
60 (10)
0 to
20 (23)
2
4
H-N-17
01/30/07
DECEMBER 1 MARKET HOGS AND PIGS
CHANGE 1997 – 2006
(1000 Head)
-1
VT
-40
2
1160
-10
-6
337
45
-53
2
-3
Alaska -1.0
Hawaii -12
US Total 1861
Livestock Marketing Information Center
340
570
-15
2880
20
-390 -520
-4
-225
-720
-575
-97
-27
-14
DE -18
MD -47
NJ
-110
-5
108 -24 -243
330
NH -1.3
MA -5
RI -0.8
CT -0.7
18
-10
-425
-3
Data Source: USDA/NASS
-250
-50
-1
-0.3 -1.1
-15
50 to 2,880 (7)
20 to
50 (2)
-40 to
20 (28)
-720 to -40 (13)
-29
H-N-21
01/30/07
Ethanol and Energy Policy Impacts on the Corn
Market – Assures Continued High Feed Prices ?
“Fueling” the Opportunities and
Challenges - Corn Ethanol
4000
Can we Produce 15BG
from corn – livestock
impact?
3500
Million Bushels
3000
70 New Plants in 2007?
Adds 1.25 BB to Corn Demand
2500
2006 - Ga. Use 212 MB, Prod. 26 MB
2000
$4.25/bu = Ethanol B.E.
1500
1000
500
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
U S TOTAL CORN SUPPLY AND PRICE
Crop Year
Bil. Bushels
15
$ Per Bushel
3.50
14
3.25
13
3.00
12
2.75
11
2.50
10
2.25
9
2.00
8
1.75
7
1.50
6
1.25
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
G-NP-13
09/12/07
Supply
Price
Pork – Peddling Up Hill in 2008
Pig Production Grows In Response to Profits
ANNUAL PIG CROP
U.S.
Mil. Head
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
1981
1984
1987
1990
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA/NASS
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
H-N-52
06/29/07
And Will Grow in 2008
SEPTEMBER 1 MARKET HOGS
U.S. Inventory (Prior to 1988 Estimated)
Mil. Head
60
2007 up 2.5%?
55
50
45
40
35
1981
1984
1987
1990
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA/NASS
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
H-N-13
06/29/07
Legal Aliens!
U S LIVE HOG IMPORTS FROM CANADA
Monthly
Thou. Head
900
850
Avg.
2001-05
800
750
700
2006
650
600
550
2007
500
450
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
Livestock Marketing Information Center
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
I-N-02
09/12/07
Will We Exceed Processing Capacity in Late 2007?
HOG VALUE AS A PERCENT OF
RETAIL PORK VALUE
Percent
50
Monthly
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
H-P-15
09/19/07
COMMERCIAL PORK PRODUCTION
Quarterly
Bil. Pounds
6.0
Up 2-3% per yr. to 2009
5.5
Avg.
2002/06
5.0
2007
4.5
2008
4.0
2009
JAN-MAR
APR-JUN
JUL-SEP
OCT-DEC
M-S-06
08/31/07
15 years of Growth to 2007
U S PORK EXPORTS
Carcass Weight, Annual
Bil. Pounds
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
I-N-05
08/31/07
U S PORK EXPORTS
Carcass Weight, Monthly
Mil. Pounds
320
300
280
Avg.
2001-05
260
240
2006
220
200
180
160
140
2007
120
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
Livestock Marketing Information Center
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
I-N-30
09/12/07
U S PORK CONSUMPTION
Per Capita, Retail Weight, Annual
Pounds
54
53
52
51
50
49
48
47
46
45
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
M-C-14
09/05/07
NET SLAUGHTER HOG PRICES
National, Weighted Average Carcass Price, Weekly
$ Per cwt
80
Avg.
2002-05
75
70
2006
65
60
55
2007
2006 = $47.26
2007 = $47.00
2008 = $45.00
O
C
T
JU
L
AP
R
JA
N
50
H-P-24
09/18/07
BROILER PRICES
Georgia Dock 2.5-3 Lbs. Bird, Weekly
Cents Per Pound
84
82
Avg.
2001-05
80
78
76
2006
74
72
70
68
2007
66
O
C
T
JU
L
AP
R
JA
N
64
P-P-06
09/18/07
Demand Issues?
BROILER PRICE-QUANTITY RELATIONSHIP
Annual, Retail Weight, Deflated Retail Whole Bird Price
$ Per Pound
1.25
81
1.20
84
89
86
1.15
82
83
1.10
88
90
85
87
1.05
91
1.00
96
92 93
94
95
98
97
99
01
00
02
03 04
0.95
05
06
0.90
0.85
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
P-P-04
02/21/07
Bird Flu Fallout?
BROILER PRICE-QUANTITY RELATIONSHIP
Annual, Retail Weight, Deflated Retail Composite Price
$ Per Pound
1.82
90
1.72
91
92
1.62
93
9496
95
9798
99
00
01
1.52
04
02
03
05
1.42
06
1.32
58
63
68
73
78
83
88
P-P-04A
02/21/07
WHOLESALE CHICKEN BREAST PRICES
Skinless/Boneless, Northeast, Truckload, Weekly
Cents Per Pound
180
170
Avg.
2001-05
160
150
140
2006
130
120
110
2007
100
O
C
T
JU
L
AP
R
JA
N
90
P-P-02
09/18/07
WHOLESALE CHICKEN LEG PRICES
Northeast, Truckload, Weekly
Cents Per Pound
70
65
Avg.
2001-05
60
55
50
2006
45
40
35
30
2007
25
O
C
T
JU
L
AP
R
JA
N
20
P-P-03
09/18/07
WEEKLY AVERAGE BROILER PRODUCTION
Federally Inspected, Ready-to-Cook Weight, By Month
Mil. Pounds
740
Avg.
2001-05
720
700
680
2006
660
640
2007
620
600
JAN
MAR
MAY
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA/NASS
JUL
SEP
NOV
P-S-13
08/31/07
BROILER EGGS SET
Weekly
Mil. Eggs
225
220
Avg.
2001-05
215
210
205
2006
200
195
190
2007
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA/NASS
O
C
T
JU
L
AP
R
JA
N
185
P-S-10
09/20/07
BROILER CHICKS PLACED
Weekly
Mil. Birds
185
180
Avg.
2001-05
175
170
2006
165
160
2007
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA/NASS
O
C
T
JU
L
AP
R
JA
N
155
P-S-11
09/20/07
RTC BROILER PRODUCTION
Quarterly
Bil. Pounds
10.0
Avg.
2002/06
9.5
9.0
2007
8.5
2008
8.0
7.5
2009
7.0
JAN-MAR
APR-JUN
JUL-SEP
2007 Down 1%
2008 & 09 UP 2-3%
OCT-DEC
M-S-30
08/31/07
U S BROILER EXPORTS
RTC, Annual
Bil. Pounds
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
I-N-52
08/31/07
U S BROILER EXPORTS
As a Percentage of Broiler Production, RTC, Annual
Percent
20
15
10
5
0
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
I-N-51
08/31/07
U S POULTRY CONSUMPTION
Per Capita, Retail Weight, Annual
Pounds
120
100
Turkey
80
60
40
Total
Chicken
20
0
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
M-C-03
09/05/07
BROILER PRICES
12-City Composite, Weekly
Cents Per Pound
87
Avg.
2001-05
82
77
2006
72
67
62
2007
2006 = $64.4
2007 = $78
2008 = $72
T
O
C
JU
L
AP
R
JA
N
57
P-P-01
09/18/07
U S RED MEAT & POULTRY CONSUMPTION
Per Capita, Boneless Weight, Annual
Pounds
80
Beef
70
60
Pork
50
40
Total
Chicken
30
20
Turkey
10
0
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
M-C-18
09/05/07
U S TOTAL SOYBEAN MEAL
SUPPLY AND PRICE
Crop Year
Mil. Tons
50
$ Per Ton
275
45
250
40
225
35
200
30
175
25
150
20
125
15
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
G-NP-14
09/12/07
Supply
Price
PORK PRODUCTION vs.
BREEDING HOG INVENTORY
Inventory on December 1, U.S.
Mil. Head
8.0
Bil. Pounds
22
Commercial Pork Production
7.5
20
7.0
18
6.5
16
6.0
14
Breeding Hog Inventory
5.5
12
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
M-S-24
09/05/07
TOTAL RED MEAT & POULTRY PRODUCTION
Quarterly
Bil. Pounds
24.0
23.0
Avg.
2002/06
22.0
2007
21.0
2008
20.0
19.0
2009
18.0
JAN-MAR
APR-JUN
JUL-SEP
OCT-DEC
M-S-31
08/31/07
U S RED MEAT & POULTRY CONSUMPTION
Per Capita, Retail Weight, Annual
Pounds
100
90
Beef
80
70
Pork
60
50
Total
Chicken
40
30
20
Turkey
10
0
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
M-C-10
09/05/07
RETAIL PORK PRICE - Is It Good to be the
"OTHER WHITE MEAT"?
Cents Per Pound
350
Nominal vs Real (GDP Deflator), Annual
Nominal
300
250
200
Real
(2000 $)
150
100
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
M-P-01
02/22/07