Data Driven Wind Power Integration
Yesterday -Today-Tomorrow
Carnegie Mellon University
March 13, 2012
Paul McGlynn
Director, System Planning
PJM
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PJM©2012
PJM as Part of the Eastern Interconnection
• 26% of generation in
Eastern Interconnection
KEY STATISTICS
PJM member companies
750+
millions of people served
60
peak load in megawatts
163,848
MWs of generating capacity
185,600
miles of transmission lines
65,441
GWh of annual energy
832,331
generation sources
1,365
square miles of territory
214,000
area served
13 states + DC
Internal/external tie lines
142
• 28% of load in Eastern Interconnection
• 19% of transmission assets in
Eastern Interconnection
21% of U.S. GDP
produced in PJM
As of 1/4/2012
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PJM Fuel Mix - Today
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Fuel Mix of All Queued Generation – Tomorrow?
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The Greener Grid
This slide shows how many megawatt-hours of renewable energy were produced in
2011 and cumulatively since tracking began in 2005. It also shows the percent change
between 2010 and 2011.
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Increasing Wind Penetration in PJM
PJM Wind Energy (MWh)
PJM Wind Nameplate Capability
(MW)
12,000,000
6000
10,000,000
5000
8,000,000
4000
6,000,000
3000
4,000,000
2000
2,000,000
1000
0
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2005
6
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
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PJM States with RPS
State Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) require suppliers to utilize wind and
other renewable resources to serve an increasing percentage of total demand.
State RPS Targets:
☼ NJ: 22.5% by 2021
☼ MD: 20% by 2022
☼ DE: 25% by 2026
☼ DC: 20% by 2020
☼ PA: 18%** by 2020
☼ IL: 25% by 2025
☼ OH: 25%** by 2025
☼ NC: 12.5% by 2021 (IOUs)
WV: 25%** by 2025
MI: 10% + 1,100 MW by 2015
☼ VA: 15% by 2025
☼ IN: 10% by 2025
State RPS
State Goal
DSIRE: www.dsireusa.org
☼ Minimum solar requirement
** Includes separate tier of “alternative” energy resources
December 2011
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Projected Renewable Energy Requirements in PJM
By 2026: 135,000 GWh of renewable energy, 14% of PJM annual net energy
(42 GW of wind and 11 GW of solar)
Wind and Solar Requirements in PJM (MW)
45,000
12,000
40,000
10,000
35,000
30,000
8,000
25,000
6,000
20,000
15,000
4,000
10,000
2,000
5,000
PJM Wind
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
0
2009
0
PJM Solar (DC)
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January 2012 Wind Generation
January Integrated Hourly Wind Generation (MW)
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1/1
1/3
1/5
1/7
1/9
1/11
1/13
1/15
1/17
Integrated Hour Average
1/19
1/21
1/23
1/25
1/27
1/29
1/31
Daily Peak Wind Generation
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Wind Power Forecasting in PJM
Relying on information from wind
resources, PJM forecasts wind
conditions. The goal of this
forecasting effort is to:
1) Augment real-time reliability decisions by
PJM operators
2) Accurately schedule generation in the DayAhead and Reliability Analysis unit
commitment
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Met Mast
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Inputs to Wind Power Forecast
Power Data
Unit Availability
Wind
Farm
Terrain
Data
Global
Data
PJM
Forecaster
Exchange
Exchange
Regional
Historical Data
Met Data
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The Fine Print on Renewables
• Wind is coming, but not on the peak hours
(13% available at the time of peak)
• Energy Storage is needed to ensure renewables
achieve their potential
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PJM Load and Wind Resources
150
Load MW
Wind MW
Locational marginal Price- $/MWh
100
50
0
-50
-100
20100407 PJM-RTO
20100407 Chicago
-150
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Grid-Scale Energy Storage System – 32 MW Battery
Laurel Mountain
Wind Farm
98 MW
61 turbines
Battery Storage
Lithium-ion (A123)
Power 32 MW, Energy 8 MWh
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Water Heater
105-gallon electric
water heater
demonstrates
minimization of cost
while responding to
the PJM wholesale
price signal and the
PJM frequency
regulation signal.
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Community Energy Storage
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Effects on Reserve Requirement:
Higher wind generation mean higher variability and faster
Rates of Change of Frequency
To mitigate these effects, Grid requires Higher amounts of
reserves as well as faster responding reserves
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Fast Regulation: Speed Matters…
• PJM
Frequency
Regulation
Signal
• Water heater
power
consumption +/2.25 Kw base
point
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PHEV: Benefits to Markets
Its really going to
happen this time.
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--Photo: EPRI
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Battery Electric Vehicles
2010 Coda Automotive Sedan
2010 Mitsubishi iMiEV BEV
2010 Nissan LEAF
2010 Ford Battery Electric Van
2010 Tesla Roadster Sport EV
2011 Peugeot Urban EV*
2011 Renault Kangoo Z.E.
2011 Renault Fluence Z.E.
2011 Tesla Model S
2011 BYD e6 Electric Vehicle
2011 Ford Battery Electric
Small Car
2011 Opel Ampera Extended
Range BEV*
2012 Fiat 500 minicar
PHEVs: The Momentum Builds
Battery Electric Vehicles
2012 Renault City Car*
2012 Renault Urban EV*
2012 Audi e-tron
2013 Volkswagen E-Up*
2016 Tesla EV
1902 Lohner-Porsche PHEV
Extended Range Electric Vehicles
2010 Chevy Volt Extended Range
Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles
Fisker Karma S Plug-in Hybrid
2010 Toyota Plug-in Hybrid
2011 BYD F3DM Plug-in Hybrid
2012 Bright Automotive IDEA
Plug-in Hybrid
2012 Ford Plug-in Hybrid
2012 Volvo Plug-in Hybrid
2009 BWM MINI E
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3/31/2010
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Pony Under the Christmas Tree?
60¢ ( PJM Off-peak Price)
75¢ per “Gallon”
^
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Grid Benefits – Regulation vs. Economic Dispatch
Time on the Road
Load in GW
120
110
100
80
Capacity for
25+ million
PHEVs
Battery Response
1
Regulation
90
Regulation
60
40
20
0.5
0
0
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
-0.5
Economic Charging
-1
Time (mSec)
Dependent on State of Charge
1
3
5
7
9
50mSec Charge/Discharge
11
13 15 17 19 21 23
Hour of Day
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Available for Summertime Work
480,000 Vehicles in United States
Average ~50 miles per day
MPG = ~5
Parked 12 hours at same location
Parked for 3 months
Great public visibility
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Smart@Car-a connection to the grid
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ENBALA’s Power Network (EPN)
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Operational Performance – Aggregation of 16 water pumps:
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PJM SynchroPhasor Deployment Project
Production Quality System to
Support 150+ Monitored Substations
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SynchroPhasor Applications
Requires more research
Needs moderate development
Deployment Challenge
Ready to deploy
Real-time Control of
wide-area network
Voltage Stability
Monitoring
Determination of
Accurate Operating
Limits
Model Derivation
& Validation
Detection of
imminent
Cascading
Improve State
Estimation
Inter-area Oscillation
Detection & Analysis
System
Restoration
Disturbance Analysis
Angle & Frequency
Monitoring
1-2 years
Wide-area
monitoring
Real-time control
of corridors
2-5 years
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>5 years
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Off-line Applications
Phasor data
measures system
dynamic behavior
during disturbances
that simulations
can’t yet accurately
predict
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Wide-area situational awareness
Measurements give us current
system states:
For true situation awareness we
need to know;
 Where the edge is
 How close to the edge we can
safely (reliably) operate
Baselining studies of phasor angles
are required for understanding
system behavior
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Additional Information
• For more information about PJM’s initiatives:
– Exploring Tomorrow’s Grid: New developments and
technologies to advance the grid:
http://www.pjm.com/about-pjm/exploring-tomorrowsgrid/smart-grid.aspx
– Renewables Dashboard: See how PJM is working to
bring renewable energy to the grid:
http://www.pjm.com/about-pjm/newsroom/renewabledashboard.aspx
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