IGC GRAINS CONFERENCE 2016: London - 14 June
for futher details see www.igc.int
WORLD ESTIMATES
INTERNATIONAL GRAINS COUNCIL
www.igc.int
13/14
14/15
est.
15/16
f'cast
16/17
proj.
28.04
26.05
million tons
TOTAL GRAINS a)
Grain
Market
Report
GMR 466 – 26 May 2016
Production
2008
2046
2003
2006
310
322
326
315
318
1935
2009
1984
2000
2009
Carryover stocks
412
448
468
472
474
year/year change
73
37
19
Major exporters b)
121
144
152
155
158
Production
717
730
736
717
722
Trade
157
153
156
153
154
Consumption
699
717
719
715
717
Carryover stocks
188
201
217
218
223
year/year change
19
12
16
Major exporters b)
54
63
70
68
70
Production
998
1018
971
998
1003
Trade
122
125
130
127
129
Consumption
950
993
972
996
1003
Carryover stocks
182
207
205
208
205
year/year change
48
25
-2
Major exporters c)
52
59
54
57
58
Production
284
320
314
319
320
Trade
113
127
130
133
133
Consumption
281
312
318
325
325
Carryover stocks
29
38
34
32
29
year/year change
3
9
-4
Major exporters d)
10
16
17
17
14
478
479
473
485
486
42
42
42
42
42
Consumption
478
481
483
489
488
Carryover stocks
94
99
19
18
Trade
Consumption
2015
6
WHEAT
6
HIGHLIGHTS
Following revisions for wheat and maize (corn), the projection for
world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2016/17 is
10m t higher m/m (month-on-month), at 2,015m, an increase of 1%
y/y (year-on-year) and the second biggest harvest ever. Wheat
prospects are better than before in the EU, the US and Russia,
although Morocco’s crop is cut to a nine-year low. Maize figures are
raised for the US and Argentina, but lowered for China and parts of
sub-Saharan Africa.
The projection for global grains consumption is also up by 10m t m/m,
to 2,009m, higher by 1% y/y; use is now expected to broadly match
the 2014/15 record. Following increases from before for feed and
industrial uses, maize demand is seen exceeding 1bn t for the first
time. Taking into account bigger opening inventories than previously
projected, the world 2016/17 carryover is boosted by 2m t, to a fresh
peak of 474m (+6m y/y), with China potentially accounting for over
40% of the total. The trade forecast is lifted by 3m t, to 318m, with
maize shipments now expected to be close to the all-time high that is
anticipated in 2015/16.
Owing to a further downgrade to crop outlooks in South America, the
2015/16 world soyabean outturn is cut by nearly 5m t, to 314m, down
by 2% y/y. Prospects for 2016/17 are highly tentative, but production
could rebound to 320m t, on a marginal increase in plantings and
improved yields. However, reflecting a reduced forecast for opening
stocks, coupled with growing use, aggregate carryovers are placed
about 3m t lower than in April, at 29m, the second consecutive annual
contraction, linked to a fall in the major exporters. Trade is anticipated
at a new high on firm demand from Asian processors.
MAIZE (CORN)
SOYABEANS
With gains for all the components other than wheat, the IGC Grains
and Oilseeds Index (GOI) rose by 4% m/m.
-5
million tons (milled basis)
RICE
Production
Trade
114
112
101
year/year change
0
-2
-10
Major exporters e)
38
32
21
-2
Figures may not add due to rounding
a) Wheat and coarse grains
b) Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, US
c) Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine, US
d) Argentina, Brazil, US
e) India, Pakistan, Thailand, US, Vietnam
IGC GRAINS & OILSEEDS INDEX (GOI)
350
Because of the impact of dry weather on crops in Asia and a further
rise in uptake, global rice stocks in 2015/16 are seen declining by 9%
y/y. With the projection little changed from April, the 2016/17 world
outturn could recover by 13m t y/y, to 486m. Nevertheless, owing to
thinner carry-in stocks and growing use, end-season inventories may
drop by 2%, to a seven-year low of 99m t. The figure is lifted by more
than 5m t m/m owing to historical revisions.
0
Jan 2000 = 100
300
250
200
150
2016
2015
2011-15 range
100
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
See: http://www.igc.int/grainsupdate/igc_goi.xlsb
Oct
Nov
Dec
GMR 466 – 26 May 2016
IGC
Government measures aimed at encouraging greater
use of local maize could lead to a steep fall in China’s
imports of barley and sorghum.
OVERVIEW

The outlook for 2016/17 grains production
continues to improve, with output potentially the
second highest ever.

With increases for food, feed and industrial uses,
total consumption is seen exceeding 2bn t for
only the second time.

Grains stocks will likely grow again, with much of
the increase in China. Lower shipments to China
contribute to a predicted drop in world trade.

Global soyabean inventories are anticipated to be
down for the second consecutive year, receding
by 15%, including a fall in leading exporters.

The 2016/17 world rice outturn could recover
strongly from the previous season’s droughtaffected outcome.
Due to reduced outlooks for Argentina and Brazil, world
soyabean output in 2015/16 is lowered to 314m t, a
drop of 6m y/y, but still 14% above the prior five-year
average. The 2016/17 outturn could recover on
increased harvested area and mostly beneficial
conditions, but with the onset of fieldwork in South
America around four months away, prospects are highly
tentative. Given continued growth in demand for
soyabean products, total use is set to expand, while
closing stocks could tighten for the second consecutive
year, including a contraction in key exporters. Trade is
expected to reach a new peak on demand from China.
Reflecting steep declines in the leading exporters,
namely India and Thailand, global rice reserves in
2015/16 are seen 9% smaller y/y. Assuming a larger
area for harvesting and improved growing conditions,
2016/17 production is projected to rise by 3%, to a
record of 486m t. But with total use likely to expand
further, albeit more slowly than in past years, together
with smaller carry-ins, ending inventories could retreat to
a seven-year low of 99m t. Trade in 2016 is predicted to
be underpinned by demand from Asian buyers, in part
due to disappointing local crop outcomes, with volumes
expected to remain high in 2017.
Total grains: Supply and demand summary
mt
Opening stocks
Production
Total supply
Total use
of which: Food
Feed
Industrial
Closing stocks
a)
major exporters
Trade (Jul/Jun)
13/14
14/15 15/16
(est.) (f'cast)
16/17
y/y
(proj.) change
339
2,008
2,347
1,935
650
841
317
412
121
310
412
2,046
2,458
2,009
666
888
324
448
144
322
468
2,015
2,483
2,009
671
881
334
474
158
318
448
2,003
2,451
1,984
661
873
328
468
152
326
+ 4.3%
+ 0.6%
+ 1.3%
+ 1.3%
+ 1.5%
M A R K E T S U M M A RY
+ 1.0%
+ 2.0%
+ 1.3%
Reflecting a sharp rally in rice, soyabean and maize
export quotations, the IGC GOI increased by a net 4%
m/m. After touching a seven-year low in February, the
index has appreciated by around 17%, with average
grains and oilseed prices now at their highest in ten
months.
+ 3.5%
- 2.6%
a) Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, US
At 2,015m t, global total grains (wheat and coarse
grains) production in 2016/17 is expected to be 1%
higher y/y. While wheat, barley and sorghum crops are
predicted to be smaller, this is seen being outweighed by
a bumper maize harvest, including gains in the US and
Argentina, as well as recoveries from poor outturns the
year before in the EU and South Africa. Output
prospects for wheat continue to improve, including in the
EU, the US and the CIS, but following a drop in area and
adverse dryness in places, world production is expected
to be 2% short of the previous year’s record.
While the overall supply outlook remains comfortable,
recent gains have been triggered by concerns about
smaller rice harvests in Asia, as well as continued
uncertainty about South American rowcrops. In contrast
to the other GOI components, average wheat values
weakened slightly in May, as traders focused on bearish
supply and demand fundamentals.
IGC Grains & Oilseeds Prices Index (GOI)*
Anticipated increases for food, feed and industrial uses
will likely see grains consumption close to a new peak in
2016/17. Despite strong demand, a further accumulation
of carryover stocks is probable at the end of the season.
Those in the major exporters could be the biggest in
seven years, but much of the projected growth is in
China. At almost 200m t, inventories there may be the
heaviest since 1999/00, nominally accounting for more
than 40% of the world total.
GMR 466
Change**
y/y
change
IGC GOI
202
+ 4.1%
+ 4.5%
Wheat sub-Index
Maize sub-Index
Barley sub-Index
Rice sub-Index
Soyabeans sub-Index
163
196
169
162
211
- 1.7%
+ 5.5%
+ 0.5%
+ 6.9%
+ 6.3%
- 11.6%
+ 9.4%
- 15.0%
+ 1.0%
+ 15.1%
*Jan 2000=100, **Change vs. GMR 465
Mainly because of falls for wheat, barley and sorghum,
world grains trade is projected to be down by 3% y/y.
2
IGC
GMR 466 – 26 May 2016
The IGC GOI rice sub-Index jumped by 7% since the
last GMR, as worries about tighter exportable supplies in
Asia became more entrenched. Because of slow harvest
progress, prices in South America were also firm.
Following recent gains, average rice export prices are
slightly higher y/y.
Wheat: GOI sub-Index
Jan 2000 = 100
360
320
280
Soyabeans: GOI sub-Index
240
Jan 2000 = 100
360
200
320
160
2011-15 range
2015
2016
280
120
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
240
Weighed by an increasingly heavy global supply outlook,
the IGC GOI wheat sub-Index eased by 2% m/m.
Markets in North America were especially weak,
offsetting modest gains in milling wheat prices in the EU
and the Black Sea region.
200
160
2016
2011-15 range
2015
120
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Maize: GOI sub-Index
Boosted by lingering uncertainty about the size and
quality of Argentina’s crop, as well as a bullishlyinterpreted USDA WASDE report, the IGC GOI
soyabean sub-Index surged by a net 6%, with average
prices up by 15% y/y.
Jan 2000 = 100
360
320
280
240
GMR CONTENTS
200
Wheat …………………………………………………………… 4
160
Durum…………………………………………………………………
2016
2011-15 range
2015
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
8
Maize…………………………………………………………… 9
Barley…………………………………………………………… 12
120
Dec
Other coarse grains……………………………………………………14
After a strong increase last month, the IGC GOI maize
sub-Index rallied by a further 5% over the past four
weeks. Advances were mainly linked to continued
harvest delays in Argentina, as well as a pickup in US
export demand.
Rice…………………………………………………………...… 17
Oilseeds…………………………………………………………21
Ocean Freight Market …………………………………………26
National Policy & Other Developments……………...…… 27
Market Focus / Special Features
Rice: GOI sub-Index
Canada: Record 2016/17 pulse crop area…………………………
5
Maize: Brazil's second (safrinha) crop……………………………… 9
Jan 2000 = 100
Rice: Update on 2016 export progress………………………………19
240
Soyabeans: Production and trade in Russia……………………… 23
Quarterly Updates (pdf version only)
220
Industrial use of grains
200
World trade in wheat flour
Tables……………………………………………………………28
180
160
© IGC 2016
140
2016
2015
2011-15 range
120
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
3
SUPPLY & DEMAND: TOTAL GRAINS#
Opening Production Imports
stocks
Total
supply
Food
Use
Industrial
Feed
Total a)
Million tons
Exports Closing
stocks
TOTAL GRAINS
Argentina **
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
Australia **
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
7.6
10.2
6.0
54.3
51.8
58.1
(6.1)
(54.7)
5.6
5.1
5.9
35.3
36.9
37.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(5.8)
62.0
62.1
64.1
5.0
5.0
5.0
2.8
2.8
2.9
14.7
14.4
14.5
24.2
23.8
24.1
27.6
32.3
35.0
10.2
6.0
5.1
(60.8)
(5.1)
(3.1)
(14.0)
(23.9)
(31.5)
(5.4)
41.0
42.0
43.5
2.2
2.2
2.4
0.8
0.8
0.8
7.3
8.2
8.1
11.4
12.2
12.4
24.4
23.9
24.4
5.1
5.9
6.7
(7.6)
(11.9)
(25.2)
(6.2)
18.2
18.9
18.5
28.8
29.6
29.7
29.1
27.5
26.2
10.4
7.9
8.6
(18.8)
(30.0)
29.2
35.0
35.3
(43.4)
Canada
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
14.9
10.4
7.9
51.4
53.2
54.7
2.0
1.4
1.7
(8.3)
68.3
65.0
64.4
2.9
2.8
3.1
6.3
6.5
6.5
(64.8)
EU*
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
Kazakhstan
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
25.4
29.2
35.0
326.7
310.6
309.6
(34.0)
(308.9)
2.1
3.0
3.6
16.4
17.5
17.0
(3.8)
(16.9)
7.9
9.8
9.5
100.5
99.4
100.5
(9.8)
(97.8)
7.3
9.1
6.6
64.4
60.7
56.6
(6.7)
(57.1)
50.4
67.6
77.8
432.8
423.1
425.8
(79.8)
(420.2)
121.2
144.4
152.4
1,081.9
1,053.1
1,059.8
(154.4)
(1047.8)
147.9
165.3
188.2
350.2
363.5
354.9
(187.9)
(356.2)
20.3
20.3
16.3
138.9
124.3
131.6
16.1
20.3
17.8
0.4
0.1
0.1
368.2
360.0
362.4
63.6
63.7
63.9
36.5
35.7
36.8
171.4
162.4
163.4
285.6
275.5
279.4
53.5
49.5
47.8
(360.7)
(64.6)
(36.6)
(162.7)
(279.3)
(46.2)
18.9
20.6
20.7
2.4
2.4
2.5
0.1
0.1
0.2
4.1
4.3
4.4
9.5
9.2
9.9
6.4
7.7
6.9
(4.3)
(9.8)
35.1
36.0
36.2
68.6
68.8
68.5
30.6
31.7
32.9
9.8
9.5
9.5
(35.7)
(67.6)
(31.5)
(9.1)
15.5
15.6
13.3
27.8
27.8
25.1
34.8
35.5
32.0
9.1
6.6
6.1
(32.4)
(6.4)
(20.8)
3.0
3.6
3.9
(4.1)
Russia
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
0.6
0.9
0.8
109.0
110.0
110.8
16.3
16.0
15.7
4.7
4.4
4.4
(108.3)
Ukraine
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
0.0
0.0
0.0
71.7
69.8
63.2
7.1
7.1
7.0
0.9
0.9
0.7
(63.8)
USA
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
MAJOR EXPORTERS b)
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
8.1
7.5
7.6
27.3
30.2
28.0
491.3
498.2
511.2
32.3
32.7
32.8
164.7
168.5
169.6
143.3
143.5
148.8
343.3
347.3
353.7
80.4
73.1
74.9
67.6
77.8
82.7
(507.6)
(32.7)
(167.7)
(151.7)
(354.6)
(73.0)
(80.1)
1,230.3
1,227.7
1,240.2
131.8
131.8
132.4
216.9
219.7
222.1
409.6
403.2
407.2
799.2
794.3
802.6
286.8
281.0
280.0
144.4
152.4
157.7
(1230.2)
(133.1)
(220.1)
(408.1)
(802.1)
(272.8)
(155.2)
524.6
549.3
556.8
96.9
97.0
97.3
62.4
64.2
66.3
178.2
178.0
175.0
358.4
360.1
358.5
0.9
1.0
1.2
165.3
188.2
197.2
(65.8)
(171.9)
(354.9)
4.8
5.2
5.4
17.4
14.9
15.7
134.1
127.5
133.1
China
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
26.6
20.4
13.7
(557.9)
(201.8)
India
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
0.3
0.9
1.0
(16.5)
WORLD TOTAL
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
159.5
145.4
149.0
102.0
99.2
102.3
5.0
1.6
1.4
(149.1)
20.3
16.3
14.6
(14.7)
c)
c)
411.9
448.5
467.6
2,045.7
2,002.8
2,015.5
322.4
326.5
317.9
2,457.6
2,451.3
2,483.1
665.7
661.4
671.0
324.2
327.5
334.0
888.4
872.5
881.5
2,009.1
1,983.7
2,009.4
322.4
326.5
317.9
448.5
467.6
473.7
(466.3)
(2005.5)
(314.9)
(2471.8)
(671.1)
(332.0)
(875.8)
(1999.8)
(314.9)
(472.1)
SUPPLY & DEMAND: ALL WHEAT#
Opening Production Imports
stocks
d)
Total
supply
Food
Use
Industrial
Feed
Total a)
Million tons
Exports Closing
d)
stocks
WHEAT
Argentina (Dec/Nov)
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
1.7
4.5
1.5
13.9
11.3
14.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
(2.1)
Australia (Oct/Sep)
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
4.9
4.4
4.9
10.4
7.1
3.8
23.1
24.2
25.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.4
1.0
1.0
5.7
6.3
6.3
5.4
8.0
8.4
28.0
28.6
29.9
29.4
27.6
29.5
0.1
0.1
0.1
39.8
34.7
33.4
4.5
1.5
1.4
(1.9)
1.9
1.9
2.1
0.5
0.5
0.5
(29.5)
(4.0)
EU* (Jul/Jun)
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
4.5
4.5
4.5
(16.7)
(4.5)
Canada (Aug/Jul)
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
15.6
15.8
16.1
2.6
2.5
2.8
0.9
0.9
1.0
4.0
3.7
4.0
7.1
6.8
7.3
16.6
17.0
17.8
4.4
4.9
4.8
(3.5)
(6.8)
(18.2)
(4.5)
4.4
4.2
3.8
8.9
8.7
8.6
23.9
22.2
20.9
7.1
3.8
3.8
(33.6)
(4.0)
171.8
177.8
175.8
54.5
54.4
54.8
10.8
10.8
11.0
52.2
55.4
52.5
123.8
126.9
125.6
36.2
33.7
34.4
11.7
17.3
15.8
(173.7)
(54.9)
(10.4)
(51.4)
(124.1)
(34.0)
(15.6)
3.4
4.0
3.1
161.0
166.2
163.6
47.3
46.8
47.1
10.8
10.8
11.0
52.2
55.4
52.5
116.0
118.7
117.2
34.0
31.6
32.3
10.9
15.9
14.2
(143.4)
(3.0)
(161.9)
(47.4)
(10.4)
(51.4)
(116.0)
(31.9)
(14.1)
13.0
13.7
13.5
0.4
0.1
0.0
15.1
16.2
16.5
2.2
2.2
2.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.0
2.1
2.0
6.8
6.4
6.7
5.9
6.9
6.5
2.4
2.9
3.2
9.5
11.7
17.3
156.1
159.8
153.6
(16.8)
(152.1)
9.1
10.9
15.9
148.5
151.3
144.7
(15.6)
1.7
2.4
2.9
6.2
6.3
4.9
of which common wheat
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
Kazakhstan (Jul/Jun)
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
(3.1)
Russia (Jul/Jun)
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
Ukraine (Jul/Jun)
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
(16.6)
6.1
6.9
7.4
59.1
61.0
61.0
(7.6)
(59.0)
3.9
5.5
4.7
24.7
27.3
21.5
0.4
0.7
0.5
MAJOR EXPORTERS b)
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
China (Jul/Jun)
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
12.9
13.3
13.0
1.5
1.5
1.5
(67.1)
0.0
0.0
0.0
(4.8)
USA (Jun/May)
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
65.6
68.5
68.9
(3.4)
28.6
32.7
26.2
5.7
5.8
5.9
0.2
0.2
0.2
14.0
14.6
14.5
36.6
37.6
37.0
22.2
23.5
24.5
6.9
7.4
7.4
(14.0)
(36.5)
(23.4)
(7.2)
4.0
4.7
4.0
12.0
13.0
12.4
11.2
15.1
9.6
5.5
4.7
4.2
(9.5)
(4.5)
31.6
31.8
33.1
23.2
20.5
22.5
20.5
27.3
29.8
(33.2)
(23.5)
(27.3)
(26.3)
16.1
20.5
27.3
55.1
55.8
54.3
(27.4)
(52.8)
54.2
62.8
69.7
374.5
380.8
373.0
(70.2)
(368.0)
58.7
63.4
76.7
126.2
130.2
127.4
4.1
3.3
3.8
75.3
79.6
85.4
25.6
25.7
25.9
(84.0)
11.2
10.5
9.3
2.1
2.8
2.0
(76.6)
0.5
0.5
0.5
3.3
3.8
5.0
(0.6)
439.9
454.1
452.0
109.9
110.4
111.3
14.4
14.4
14.7
84.4
89.4
86.8
232.4
237.4
237.1
144.6
146.9
144.6
62.8
69.7
70.4
(447.5)
(111.4)
(14.3)
(84.8)
(234.7)
(144.5)
(68.3)
187.1
196.4
206.1
88.0
88.0
88.0
3.2
3.2
3.3
22.0
18.0
15.0
123.4
119.5
115.6
0.2
0.2
0.4
63.4
76.7
90.0
(206.0)
India (Apr/Mar)
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
17.8
17.2
14.5
95.9
86.5
90.0
0.3
0.6
1.0
WORLD TOTAL
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
188.4
200.6
216.8
729.6
735.6
722.3
(215.3)
(717.2)
(115.7)
(89.9)
113.9
104.3
105.5
80.5
79.1
81.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
5.0
3.4
4.0
93.3
88.9
92.4
3.4
0.9
0.3
153.4
155.7
153.7
918.0
936.2
939.1
480.5
482.9
488.5
22.0
21.9
22.4
143.3
144.9
137.9
717.4
719.4
716.5
153.4
155.7
153.7
200.6
216.8
222.6
(153.3)
(932.5)
(487.9)
(22.2)
(135.1)
(714.6)
(153.3)
(217.9)
e)
17.2
14.5
12.8
e)
SUPPLY & DEMAND: MAIZE#
Opening Production Imports
stocks
Total
supply
Food
Use
Industrial
Feed
Total a)
Million tons
Exports Closing
stocks
MAIZE
Argentina (Mar/Feb)
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
2017/18 proj.
Brazil (Mar/Feb)
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
est.
f'cast
proj.
proj.
1.8
4.2
4.3
2.3
33.1
33.8
31.9
36.7
(1.8)
(33.4)
8.5
13.9
8.3
5.1
80.1
84.7
78.5
83.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
(36.1)
0.8
0.3
1.5
0.5
(6.6)
EU* (Oct/Sep)
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
34.9
38.0
36.2
40.0
10.5
11.5
10.6
11.0
13.6
14.8
13.9
14.4
17.1
18.9
20.0
22.5
4.2
4.3
2.3
3.1
(2.5)
(10.5)
(14.2)
(19.0)
(3.0)
3.1
3.5
3.6
3.9
44.2
45.2
45.7
46.6
54.6
56.1
56.5
58.1
21.0
34.4
26.8
25.0
13.9
8.3
5.1
6.2
(57.9)
(27.0)
(5.9)
3.9
1.8
2.0
7.3
7.3
6.5
89.4
98.9
88.4
89.3
4.4
4.5
4.5
4.6
(90.8)
(4.5)
92.2
78.8
83.4
4.2
4.2
4.2
14.1
13.3
14.3
60.1
49.9
53.9
80.9
69.7
74.9
(84.5)
(4.7)
(14.6)
(54.2)
(76.2)
6.6
7.3
7.3
76.2
58.2
63.7
(7.0)
(65.1)
South Africa (May/Apr)
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
2017/18 proj.
0.9
2.2
2.3
1.3
15.0
10.6
7.0
12.9
0.0
2.0
3.0
0.4
15.8
14.8
12.3
14.6
5.7
5.4
5.1
5.6
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
5.3
5.8
5.1
5.4
11.6
11.8
10.7
11.7
2.0
0.7
0.3
1.0
2.2
2.3
1.3
1.9
Ukraine (Oct/Sep)
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
2.6
2.3
0.9
28.5
23.3
25.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
31.1
25.5
26.4
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
8.0
7.0
5.9
9.9
8.6
7.0
18.9
16.0
18.5
2.3
0.9
0.9
USA (Sep/Aug)
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
31.3
44.0
45.8
361.1
345.5
355.3
0.8
1.4
1.0
393.2
390.9
402.1
5.1
5.2
5.2
160.9
162.1
163.7
135.2
133.4
138.0
301.9
301.3
307.4
47.3
43.8
46.0
44.0
45.8
48.6
(47.6)
(350.2)
(161.9)
(140.0)
(307.6)
(43.0)
(48.1)
86.1
98.4
108.0
215.6
224.6
219.0
53.0
55.0
57.0
138.0
144.5
149.5
208.6
217.3
224.5
0.2
0.2
0.2
98.4
108.0
103.9
(56.5)
(146.5)
(221.0)
3.4
3.2
3.2
10.1
10.1
9.9
14.9
14.7
14.5
(10.1)
(14.7)
China (Oct/Sep)
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
9.4
13.3
12.4
2.0
2.2
2.3
2.3
f)
(398.8)
5.5
2.5
1.5
(220.4)
Japan (Oct/Sep)
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
WORLD TOTAL
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
#
(6.3)
0.8
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
307.2
325.5
328.5
7.6
7.8
8.0
(329.9)
14.7
14.7
14.5
15.4
15.2
15.0
(14.7)
(15.2)
1.1
1.1
1.1
(108.8)
0.0
0.0
0.0
g)
0.5
0.5
0.5
g)
182.1
206.8
205.1
1,018.2
970.5
1,003.1
125.1
129.5
129.0
1,200.3
1,177.3
1,208.2
114.2
110.6
111.7
264.5
265.9
272.3
575.7
562.4
583.4
993.4
972.2
1,002.9
125.1
129.5
129.0
206.8
205.1
205.3
(205.5)
(998.2)
(126.8)
(1203.8)
(112.9)
(270.7)
(580.2)
(995.8)
(126.8)
(208.0)
IGC estimates. May differ from official estimates shown elsewhere in this report.
** Years shown for southern hemisphere countries include following marketing years for maize and sorghum. For example, for Argentina, the
"2013/14" year includes the 2013/14 (Dec/Nov) local marketing year for wheat and the 2014/15 (Mar/Feb) marketing year for maize.
a) Including seed and waste.
f) Includes residual.
b) Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan,
g) IGC July/June trade
Russia, Ukraine, United States
h) Excludes trade in malt
c) Includes trade in malt.
Totals may not sum due to rounding.
d) Including estimated trade in secondary products
Figures in brackets represent the previous estimate.
e) IGC July/June trade: excluding trade in secondary products
SUPPLY & DEMAND: ALL RICE#
Million tons (milled basis)
Opening
Production
Imports
stocks
India (Oct/Sep)
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
Pakistan (Nov/Oct)
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
22.0
17.1
11.9
105.5
103.6
107.5
0.1
0.1
0.1
Total
Total
supply
use a)
127.6
120.8
119.5
98.7
100.0
100.9
Exports
Closing
stocks
11.8
9.0
7.5
17.1
11.9
11.1
(7.4)
(11.2)
0.8
1.0
1.0
6.9
6.7
6.9
0.1
0.1
0.1
7.8
7.8
8.0
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.9
3.9
4.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
11.8
9.6
4.9
18.7
16.6
20.2
0.2
0.2
0.4
30.7
26.4
25.5
11.3
11.2
11.2
9.8
10.3
11.2
9.6
4.9
3.1
(11.0)
(3.6)
3.2
3.5
3.8
1.6
1.1
1.2
(3.5)
(1.7)
7.0
7.2
7.8
2.2
1.9
1.7
Thailand (Jan/Dec)
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
(5.2)
(25.8)
USA (Aug/Jul)
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
1.0
1.6
1.1
7.1
6.1
7.3
0.8
0.8
0.7
8.9
8.4
9.1
(1.4)
(7.2)
(0.8)
(9.3)
2.1
2.2
1.9
28.8
28.4
28.9
0.4
0.4
0.2
31.3
31.0
30.9
4.2
3.9
4.1
Vietnam (Jan/Dec)
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
22.1
21.9
21.4
(1.8)
(1.6)
Total 5 leading exporters b)
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
Bangladesh (Jul/Jun)
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
China (Jan/Dec)
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
Indonesia (Jan/Dec)
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
37.8
31.5
20.8
167.0
161.4
170.8
(21.3)
(170.6)
0.9
0.8
0.8
34.5
34.5
34.5
(1.0)
(34.2)
50.7
53.9
56.3
144.6
145.7
146.3
(52.5)
(146.0)
2.3
1.8
1.4
36.3
36.3
37.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
206.3
194.4
193.1
139.0
139.8
140.7
35.7
33.8
34.2
31.5
20.8
18.1
(193.5)
(140.6)
(33.7)
(19.1)
36.0
36.0
36.4
35.2
35.2
35.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.8
0.8
0.8
(36.3)
(35.5)
200.1
204.5
207.6
146.0
147.5
149.3
0.3
0.6
0.6
53.9
56.3
58.1
(203.5)
(150.4)
40.0
39.9
40.4
38.2
38.5
39.0
0.6
0.7
1.1
4.9
4.9
5.0
1.4
1.8
1.5
(1.7)
(52.6)
0.0
0.0
0.0
(40.7)
1.8
1.4
1.4
(1.7)
Philippines (Jul/Jun)
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
1.8
2.3
2.2
11.9
11.3
11.5
15.5
15.5
15.5
1.8
1.9
1.8
(2.5)
13.2
13.3
13.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
(15.8)
2.3
2.2
2.2
(2.5)
WORLD TOTAL
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
#
113.6
111.5
101.3
479.3
472.8
485.6
42.5
42.2
41.8
592.9
584.3
587.0
481.3
483.0
487.6
42.5
42.2
41.8
111.5
101.3
99.4
(97.6)
(485.3)
(41.6)
(582.9)
(488.9)
(41.6)
(94.0)
IGC estimates. May differ from official estimates shown elsewhere in the report.
a) Including seed and waste.
b) India, Pakistan, Thailand, United States, Vietnam.
Totals may not sum due to rounding.
Figures in brackets represent the previous estimate.
SUPPLY & DEMAND: SOYABEANS#
Million tons
Opening Production
stocks
Imports
Total
supply
Use
Food
Feed
Exports
Crush
Total a)
Closing
stocks
SOYABEANS
Argentina (Apr/Mar)
2015/16 est.
2016/17 f'cast
2017/18 proj.
Brazil (Feb/Jan)
2015/16 est.
2016/17 f'cast
2017/18 proj.
USA (Sep/Aug)
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
5.4
8.8
5.6
61.4
55.0
56.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
66.9
63.8
61.6
(6.9)
(55.5)
2.2
1.6
0.6
96.2
96.9
102.0
(1.1)
(103.0)
2.5
5.2
10.9
106.9
106.9
103.5
0.9
0.8
0.8
110.3
112.9
115.2
(62.4)
0.3
0.1
0.1
98.7
98.6
102.7
(12.1)
(103.2)
(0.4)
(115.7)
264.5
258.8
261.5
1.2
0.9
0.9
275.9
275.2
279.5
(20.0)
(261.7)
(0.5)
(282.2)
0.2
0.5
0.4
6.0
6.2
5.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
6.6
7.0
6.0
(5.8)
Ukraine (Sep/Aug)
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
0.3
0.2
0.1
3.9
3.8
4.5
0.4
0.4
0.3
8.1
8.8
8.9
44.2
44.8
45.1
46.4
47.5
47.9
11.7
10.8
8.7
8.8
5.6
5.0
(2.1)
(44.8)
(47.5)
(10.8)
(4.2)
2.7
3.1
3.3
39.5
38.8
41.5
42.5
42.2
45.1
54.6
55.8
57.0
1.6
0.6
0.6
(58.0)
(1.1)
0.0
0.0
0.0
50.5
47.4
51.3
5.2
10.9
8.3
(48.0)
(12.0)
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.7
3.4
3.5
50.9
51.2
52.1
54.6
54.6
55.6
8.1
8.6
9.0
134.6
134.7
138.6
143.5
144.2
148.6
116.8
114.0
117.0
15.6
17.1
13.9
(8.9)
(138.4)
(148.2)
(116.8)
(17.3)
0.3
0.3
0.3
1.8
1.9
1.7
2.3
2.4
2.2
3.9
4.2
3.5
0.5
0.4
0.3
(6.4)
0.0
0.0
0.0
(4.1)
Paraguay (Mar/Feb)
2015/16 est.
2016/17 f'cast
2017/18 proj.
0.1
0.1
0.1
1.7
2.1
2.2
(104.1)
Total 3 major exporters b)
2014/15 est.
10.1
2015/16 f'cast
15.6
2016/17 proj.
17.1
Canada (Sep/Aug)
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.1
4.0
4.6
(3.9)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.1
(4.3)
0.0
0.0
0.0
8.5
9.2
9.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
1.3
1.5
1.9
1.5
1.6
2.0
2.4
2.2
2.4
(1.6)
(1.8)
(2.3)
3.3
4.0
4.0
3.7
4.3
4.3
4.5
4.6
4.6
(0.2)
China (Oct/Sep)
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
EU* (Oct/Sep)
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.4
(0.3)
12.0
12.0
12.4
12.2
11.6
12.0
80.1
84.0
87.5
104.3
107.6
111.9
10.3
11.3
11.5
(12.0)
(11.2)
(86.0)
(109.2)
(11.6)
0.6
1.0
0.9
1.9
2.2
2.1
13.5
13.3
13.0
16.0
16.5
16.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
(13.3)
(16.7)
(1.3)
2.5
2.4
2.7
0.9
0.8
0.9
77.0
82.8
87.5
90.3
96.9
102.2
(85.1)
(99.9)
13.7
14.5
13.8
14.8
15.5
14.8
(14.5)
(15.6)
0.0
0.2
0.2
14.0
12.4
9.5
(9.1)
0.1
0.1
0.1
1.0
0.9
1.0
India (Oct/Sep)
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
0.7
0.3
0.2
10.4
9.1
11.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
11.1
9.5
11.4
0.3
0.2
0.4
0.7
0.4
0.6
9.6
8.7
10.1
10.5
9.2
11.1
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
Japan (Oct/Sep)
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.5
3.5
3.6
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.2
0.2
0.2
2.3
2.3
2.4
3.3
3.3
3.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
(2.3)
WORLD TOTAL
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.
#
28.6
37.8
33.5
320.4
313.6
320.0
c)
126.8
130.2
133.2
349.0
351.4
353.5
16.5
17.2
17.8
16.7
16.6
17.2
276.9
282.4
288.2
311.7
317.9
324.9
c)
126.8
130.2
133.2
37.8
33.5
28.6
(37.7)
(318.9)
(132.6)
(356.6)
(18.0)
(17.3)
(287.5)
(324.5)
(132.6)
(31.7)
IGC estimates. May differ from official estimates shown elsewhere in the report.
a) Including seed and waste.
b) Argentina, Brazil, USA
c) IGC October/September trade
Totals may not sum due to rounding
Figures in brackets represent the previous estimate.