Personal tax and benefit changes David Phillips © Institute for Fiscal Studies What we already knew about In 2010/11: • 50% income tax above £150,000, and personal allowance phased out over £100,000. • £20 increase above indexation in child element of Child Tax Credit • £50 (£100) increase in winter fuel payment to 60+ (80+) being withdrawn In 2011/12: • Income tax personal allowance to fall £130 below indexation, and basic rate limit frozen • Pension contribution tax relief to be reduced from 50% to 20% between £150,000 and £180,000 • 0.5% increase in NI rates paid by employees, employers and the self employed, and £600 increase in primary threshold © Institute for Fiscal Studies New announcements: benefits and tax credits In 2010/11: • 1.5% real increase in child benefit, disability benefits and the working tax credit. • Start roll-out of free school meals for primary school children whose parents work and earn less than £16,190 (England only) In 2011/12: • Same benefit rates to be cut by 1.5% in real terms • Complete roll-out of free school meals • Working Tax Credit hours threshold of 16 hours for age 65+ © Institute for Fiscal Studies New announcements: taxes In 2010/11: • 50p per month tax on landline phones In 2011/12: • Further 0.5% increase in employee, employer and self-employed rates of NI • Further increase of £570 in NI primary threshold – Those earning up to about £20,000 gain if exclude impact of employer NI increase (about £14,000 if wages are cut in response to employer NI) In 2012/13: • Higher-rate income tax threshold frozen in cash terms (forecast 3.25% real cut) © Institute for Fiscal Studies Changes to combined income tax and NI schedule Year Budget 2007 intention £0 – £5.7k 0% £5.7k – £6.4k £6.4k – £6.9k £6.9k – £44.3k £44.3k – £100k £100k –£113k 38.8% Note: assumes contracted in to second state pension, only one job, constant earnings throughout the year © Institute for Fiscal Studies £113k – £150k 47.7% Over £150k Changes to combined income tax and NI schedule Year £0 – £5.7k Budget 2007 intention 0% April 2009 0% £5.7k – £6.4k £6.4k – £6.9k £6.9k – £43.9k £43.9k – £100k £100k –£113k 38.8% 21.1% 38.8% Note: assumes contracted in to second state pension, only one job, constant earnings throughout the year © Institute for Fiscal Studies £113k – £150k 47.7% 47.7% Over £150k Changes to combined income tax and NI schedule Year £0 – £5.7k £5.7k – £6.4k £6.4k – £6.9k £6.9k – £43.9k Budget 2007 intention 0% April 2009 0% 21.1% 38.8% April 2010 0% 21.1% 38.8% £43.9k – £100k £100k –£113k 38.8% Over £150k 47.7% 47.7% 47.7% Note: assumes contracted in to second state pension, only one job, constant earnings throughout the year © Institute for Fiscal Studies £113k – £150k 65.4% 47.7% 56.6% Changes to combined income tax and NI schedule Year £0 – £5.7k £5.7k – £6.3k £6.3k – £6.9k £6.9k – £42.6k £42.6k – £100k £100k –£113k 38.8% £113k – £150k Over £150k Budget 2007 intention 0% 47.7% April 2009 0% 21.1% 38.8% April 2010 0% 21.1% 38.8% 47.7% 65.4% 47.7% 56.6% April 2011 before PBR 0% 11.7% 39.5% 48.4% 66.0% 48.4% 57.2% 47.7% Note: assumes contracted in to second state pension, only one job, constant earnings throughout the year © Institute for Fiscal Studies Changes to combined income tax and NI schedule Year £0 – £5.7k £5.7k – £6.3k £6.3k – £6.9k £6.9k – £42.6k £42.6k – £100k £100k –£113k 38.8% £113k – £150k Over £150k Budget 2007 intention 0% April 2009 0% 21.1% 38.8% April 2010 0% 21.1% 38.8% 47.7% 65.4% 47.7% 56.6% April 2011 before PBR 0% 11.7% 39.5% 48.4% 66.0% 48.4% 57.2% April 2011 post PBR 0% 12.1% 49.0% 66.6% 49.0% 57.8% 29.7% 47.7% 40.2% 47.7% Note: assumes contracted in to second state pension, only one job, constant earnings throughout the year © Institute for Fiscal Studies Distributional effects of reforms for April 2010 Change in Net Household Income 1.00% 0.00% -1.00% Income Decile Group -2.00% -3.00% -4.00% -5.00% -6.00% Pre-Announced © Institute for Fiscal Studies New Announcements Total Distributional effects of reforms for April 2010 Change in Net Household Income 1.00% 0.00% -1.00% Income Decile Group -2.00% -3.00% -4.00% -5.00% -6.00% Total © Institute for Fiscal Studies Change in Net Househould Income Distributional effects of reforms for April 2011 1.00% 0.00% -1.00% Income Decile Group -2.00% -3.00% -4.00% -5.00% -6.00% Pre-Announced © Institute for Fiscal Studies New Announcements Total 2011 Change in Net Househould Income Distributional effects of reforms for April 2011 1.00% 0.00% -1.00% -2.00% Income Decile Group -3.00% -4.00% -5.00% -6.00% Total 2011 © Institute for Fiscal Studies Change in Net Househould Income Distributional effects of reforms for April 2012 1.00% 0.00% -1.00% Income Decile Group -2.00% -3.00% -4.00% -5.00% -6.00% Total 2011 © Institute for Fiscal Studies April 2012 Reforms Total 2012 Change in Net Househould Income Distributional effects of reforms for April 2012 1.00% 0.00% -1.00% Income Decile Group -2.00% -3.00% -4.00% -5.00% -6.00% 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total 2012 © Institute for Fiscal Studies 7 8 9 10 Distributional effects by household type MBU, k MBU,nk Couple Pensioner Single Pensioner TE Coup, K TE Coup, NK SE Coup, K SE Coup, NK NE Coup, K NE Coup, NK LP, emp LP, unemp single, emp single, unemp -5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% Change in Net Household Income Total change by 2012 © Institute for Fiscal Studies 0.0% 1.0% K=with children NK = no children New announcements: other measures • Slower roll-out of auto-enrolment in personal pension accounts – Raises £0.1 billion in 2012/13, £0.7 billion in 2013/14 and £1.6 billion in 2014/15 • Curbs to public sector remuneration to affect earnings and pensions of public sector workers – 1% cap on pay settlements in 2011/12 and 2012/13 (expected to amount to a cut of £3.4 billion in annual pay bill by 2012/13). – £1 billion cut in annual contributions to public sector pensions by 2012.