A data driven approach to
neighbourhood policing
David I. Ashby
Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis
University College London
3rd National Crime Mapping Conference :: Jill Dando Institute of Crime Science
Stream 1b: Profiling Neighbourhoods :: 12th April 2005 :: London
New localism, performance
measurement and increased
accountability
Police Force areas
• Forty-three units in England and Wales (8 in Scotland)
Minimum
Area (sq km)
Officers (fte. 2003-4)
All recorded crime (2003-4)
Average
Maximum
3
3,506
10,943
815
3,161
29,257
9,250
138,013
1,060,930
• Each of the 43 police forces in England & Wales is compared only to
those forces most-similar to themselves.
• Police Performance Assessment Framework
– Rejection of league tables
– Baseline Assessment
Finer granularities
• Local analyses conducted for
–
–
–
–
–
–
police beats
wards
bespoke neighbourhood regions
crime ‘hotspots’ (however defined)
target areas for audits, assessments, etc
household level
• Postal geographies
– Efficient communications
– Performance benchmarking (by neighbourhood type)
Definitions
geodemographic
indicators
small area measures of
social, economic and
demographic
conditions
scale
neighbourhoods as
aggregations of unit
postcodes
Origins
Developments:
Site location
Developments:
Targeting of communications
Spatial granularity
Different zones are built using postal geography
provided the Royal Mail
Postcode
NG34 5AH
1.6 million postcodes
15 households in each
Postal Sector
NG34 5
9,000 sectors
2,600 households in each
Postal District
NG34
2,700 districts
8,600 households in each
Postal Area
NG
120 areas
194,000 households in each
J54 : Grey Perspective / Bungalow Retirement
Nottingham Road, Clacton on Sea, CO15 5PG
Hazeldown Road, Teignmouth, TQ14 8QR
Fife Road, Herne Bay, CT6 7RE
Haysom Close, New Milton, BH25 6PN
A06 : Symbols of Success / High Technologists
Lowry Close, Camberley, GU47 0FJ
Laverock Park, Linlithgow, EH49 6AT
Heron Park, Basingstoke, RG24 8UJ
Furlong Way, Great Amwell, Ware, SG12 9TE
K58 : Rural Isolation / Greenbelt Guardians
Church Street, Staverton, Northampton, NN11 6JJ
West View, Minskip, York, YO51 9HZ
Lower Stoke, Limpley Stoke, Bath, BA2 7FR
Back Lane, Souldern, Bicester, Oxon, OX27 7JG
G42 : Municipal Dependency / Low Horizons
Greenham Close, Middlesbrough, TS3 9NT
Southbank Road, Burnage, Manchester, M19 1PX
Thornton Road, Barnsley, S70 3NG
Eighth Avenue, Hull, HU6 9LH
Research applications
Significant domains of geodemographic analysis:
1. Area profiling (e.g. for administrative units)
2. Extrapolation of survey data (e.g. British Crime Survey)
3. Coding operational data sets (e.g. hospital admissions)
Specific applications of these techniques for Central and
Local Government:
1. Performance benchmarking / assessment
2. Efficient communications programmes
Walton North ward
© Crown Copyright Ordnance Survey. An EDINA Digimap / JISC supplied service.
Walton North ward (NE corner)
© Crown Copyright Ordnance Survey. An EDINA Digimap / JISC supplied service.
Geodemographic coding of
surveys
1. Survey sample
2. Respondents referenced by residential
postcode
A B C D E F G H I J K
3. Geodemographic code appended to
each respondents’ postcode
4. Responses collated and summed by
geodemographic categories
84 76 101 141 97 171 191 87 30 23 67
5. Index values created for each
question/response for all
‘neighbourhood types’
6. Index values analysed by category or
for different geographic regions.
Can be mapped to every postcode.
Noisy neighbours common problem
Neighbours help each other
Bad place to live
Connected to Internet
© Crown Copyright Ordnance Survey. An EDINA Digimap / JISC supplied service.
Devon and Cornwall Constabulary
North & East Devon BCU
• Key locations
• Exeter, Barnstaple, Tiverton, Exmouth
• Total recorded crime in 2003/4
• Devon & Cornwall Constabulary – 131,453
• North & East Devon BCU – 36,247 (28%)
• Exeter 14,332 (11% Force : 40% BCU)
Operational data analysis
North and East Devon BCU
Victims
Offenders Detected
Desk
V=L
postcode
A Symbols of Success
73
18
94
179
95
B Happy Families
85
100
95
110
82
C Suburban Comfort
69
43
74
108
81
D Ties of Community
172
183
124
63
111
E Urban Intelligence
186
129
98
261
113
F Welfare Borderline
300
372
166
165
133
G Municipal Dependency
168
439
130
135
101
H Blue Collar Enterprise
117
217
109
116
88
I Twilight Subsistence
88
115
95
77
101
J Grey Perspectives
68
68
45
78
60
97
38
73
33
96
K Rural Isolation
Relative incidence of young offender
offences per 1000 households
Percentage of
Nottinghamshire
Households
Neighbourhood Group
Index
(Mosaic UK)
6.82
A: Symbols of Success
27
8.30
B: Happy Families
43
14.62
C: Suburban Comfort
29
22.55
D: Ties of Community
98
6.33
E: Urban Intelligence
106
6.68
F: Welfare Borderline
209
9.91
G: Municipal Dependency
257
12.03
H: Blue Collar Enterprise
153
4.61
I: Twilight Subsistence
30
5.51
J: Grey Perspectives
25
2.64
K: Rural Isolation
38
Youth crime in Nottinghamshire
Predicted High Levels
of Dwelling Burglary in Exeter
Actual Dwelling Burglaries in
Exeter postcodes 2003 - 2004
Predicted and Actual
Dwelling Burglaries in Exeter
by postcode 2003 - 2004
Policing Styles
a neighbourhood framework
Policing Styles
a neighbourhood framework
Ashby, D.I. and Longley, P.A. (2005) Geocomputation, Geodemographics and
Resource Allocation for Local Policing. Transactions in GIS, 9(1): 53–72.
Ashby, D.I. (2005) Policing neighbourhoods: Exploring the geographies of
crime, policing and performance assessment. Policing and Society, (in press).
Williamson, T., Ashby, D.I. and Webber, R. (2005) Young offenders, schools
and the neighbourhood: a new approach to data-analysis for community
policing. Journal of Community and Applied Social Psychology, 15: (in press).
Williamson, T., Ashby, D.I. and Webber, R. (2005) Classifying
Neighbourhoods for Reassurance Policing. Policing and Society, (accepted).
Ashby, D.I., Irving, B. and Longley, P. (forthcoming) . Police Reform and the
New Public Management Paradigm: matching technology to the rhetoric. In
preparation.
http://www.casa.ucl.ac.uk/ashby
A data driven approach to
neighbourhood policing
David I. Ashby
Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis
University College London
3rd National Crime Mapping Conference :: Jill Dando Institute of Crime Science
Stream 1b: Profiling Neighbourhoods :: 12th April 2005 :: London