Stream 2: Successes in the field: Crime mapping, policing and problem-solving
Crime mapping and the neighbourhood
A new approach to the profiling of crime, fear
of crime and policing performance at a local level
David Ashby
Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis
Department of Geography
University College London
Second UK Crime Mapping Conference
London, England
9th - 10th March 2004
Outline
• Crime mapping for strategic policing
• Public service reform agenda and the
geographies of policing / performance
assessment
• Geodemographics
• Recorded crime profiles
• British Crime Survey profiles
Tactical, operational crime
mapping and management
Strategic, local-community
based initiatives
Police Reform
• Mantra of the moment; the local, the
neighbourhood, community policing,
reassurance policing, citizen focus-policing.
• Police performance (measurement) culture
• Spottiswoode Report
• Best Value (PI’s and PP’s)
• Police Performance Assessment Framework
• Dichotomy of local and national priorities
• Increased accountability
I am absolutely certain that the safer neighbourhood
teams will deliver. We have had enormous support from
the Home Secretary – particularly in the shape of the
modernisation of our communications processes known
as C3i, for which we have received a special grant of
£140 million, the largest in the history of policing – and
all political parties, Labour, Conservative and Liberal
Democrat are engaged in a dialogue about localism,
about accountability and all seem immensely supportive
of our Step Change programme.
Sir Ian Blair
Policing Performance Assessment Framework
the ‘domains’ of policing
Performance monitors
City of London
City of London
Dyfed-Powys
Dyfed-Powys
PPAF development
Most Similar Forces revisited
Two-years data but still only 13 indicator variables
Disclaimers about City of London, etc
Most Similar Force peer group charts
Mapping Most Similar Forces results from PPAF?
Benchmarking performance
• Massive variation in policing environments
(rural, urban, affluent, deprived, demography, location, etc…).
• Assessing comparative performance should reflect
different crime & policing challenges/environments.
• Policing priorities, strategies, resource allocation and
evaluation should be on a like-with-like basis; i.e.
accounting for the differences between areas.
• Move away from national league tables in favour of
comparing ‘similar’ areas.
• Most Similar Forces and Fixed Families (BCU / CDRP)
OR…go ‘local’
Spatial granularity
Different zones are built using postal geography
provided the Royal Mail
Postcode
NG34 5AH
1.6 million postcodes
15 households in each
Postal Sector
NG34 5
9,000 sectors
2,600 households in each
Postal District
NG34
2,700 districts
8,600 households in each
Postal Area
NG
120 areas
194,000 households in each
F: Welfare Borderline
37: Upper Floor Families
36: Metro Multiculture
E: Urban Intelligence
32: Dinky Developments
Geodemographics
• Area typologies that are powerful discriminators of
behaviour and aid market analysis ~ Small area
demographic analysis
• Clusters similar neighbourhoods into lifestyle
categories
• Social similarity rather than locational proximity
(administrative areal units)
• Growth of interest from mid 1980s
• ACORN, GB Profiler, Mosaic, Cameo
• Charles Booth’s 1889 London Poverty Map
Booth’s classification
Colour
Description
BLACK
Lowest class. Vicious, semi-criminal.
DARK BLUE
Very poor, casual. Chronic want.
LIGHT BLUE
Poor. 18s. to 21s. a week for a moderate family
PURPLE
Mixed. Some comfortable others poor
PINK
Fairly comfortable. Good ordinary earnings.
RED
Middle class. Well-to-do.
YELLOW
Upper-middle and Upper classes. Wealthy.
Mosaic UK classification
• Approximately 400 data variables used in
Mosaic UK
• Census 2001 accounts for 54% of input data
• Experian Consumer Segmentation Database
– 46 million adult residents & 23 million households
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Electoral Roll
Experian Lifestyle Surveys
Consumer Credit Activity
Post Office Address File
Shareholders Register
House Price and Council Tax information
ONS local area statistics
Geodemographics for policing
Geodemographic typologies can help the police
and other public services to:
– understand more about their ‘customers’
– focus policing activities (resource determination)
– customise communication to different target
markets
– predict what policing and crime reduction
strategies will be effective in whichever area is
chosen, locally and internationally
– evaluate neighbourhood policing styles and public
satisfaction at a local level
A03 : Symbols of Success / Corporate Chieftains
Uphill Road, Mill Hill, NW7 4RB
Bridge of Weir Road, Kilmacolm, PA13 4NU
Rosebery Avenue, Harpenden, AL5 2QT
Northwold Road, Bolton, BL1 5BH
D24 : Ties of Community / Coronation Street
Cumberland Street, Wallsend, NE28 7SB
Coronation Street, Carlin How, Loftus, TS13 4DN
Albert Street, Mexborough, S64 9BT
Elliott Street, Preston, PR1 7XN
F38 : Welfare Borderline / Tower Block Living
Thornbush Road, Airdrie, ML6 6RR
Landos Road, Manchester, M40 7HY
Chipperfield Road, Birmingham, B36 8SD
Charles Street, Glasgow, G21 2PX
J54 : Grey Perspective / Bungalow Retirement
Nottingham Road, Clacton on Sea, CO15 5PG
Hazeldown Road, Teignmouth, TQ14 8QR
Fife Road, Herne Bay, CT6 7RE
Haysom Close, New Milton, BH25 6PN
K60 : Rural Isolation / Pastoral Symphony
Wern Ddu, Tyn y Groes, Conwy, LL32 8SS
Lumburn, Tavistock, PL19 8HT
Melmerby, Penrith, CA10 1HF
Dalemoor Farm, Dale, Ilkeston, DE7 4PH
A01: Global Connections
E28: Counter Cultural Mix
F36: Metro Multiculture
Relative incidence of young offender
offences per 1000 households
% HH
Mosaic Group
Index
6.82
A : Symbols of Success
27
8.30
B : Happy Families
43
14.62
C : Suburban Comfort
29
22.55
D : Ties of Community
98
6.33
E : Urban Intelligence
106
6.68
F : Welfare Borderline
209
9.91
G : Municipal Dependency
257
12.03
H : Blue Collar Enterprise
153
4.61
I : Twilight Subsistence
30
5.51
J : Grey Perspectives
25
2.64
K : Rural Isolation
38
Calculating profiles
Recorded Crime data
• North and East
Devon BCU
• 1999 – 2000
crime incident
data
• Victim,
offender and
location
postcodes
• 26,848 records
British Crime Survey
• Criticisms of recorded crime data include:
•
•
•
•
•
Decision to report (under-reporting)
Attrition: call centres, control rooms
Police crime recording practices
Performance Assessment
Attitudinal data – fear, social capital,…
…the real picture of crime?
• Problems with and criticisms of the BCS:
•
•
•
•
•
Retail crime
Youth crime (under 18s)
Repeat victimisation
Not large enough to pick up rare events
Lacks local context
British Crime Survey
• Collaboration with National Centre for Social Research
(NatCen).
• Coded BCS 2000 responses to unit postcode level; Mosaic
neighbourhood types/groups
• Profiles cover a range of topics
– crime type
– causes of crime
– fear of crime
– neighbourhood satisfaction
– Anti-social behaviour / disorder
– attitudes towards the police and CJS
• New profiles on fire and car crime, and segmented by
ethnicity, gender and rurality/accessibility
Appropriate policing styles
David I. Ashby
Researcher
Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis
University College London
1-19 Torrington Place
London
WC1E 7HB
T:
+44 (0) 20 7679 4287
F:
+44 (0) 20 7813 2843
E:
d.ashby@ucl.ac.uk
W:
http://www.casa.ucl.ac.uk/ashby