Ecole des sciences criminelles
Detection,
investigation
monitoring of
Renseignement
forensiqueand
et criminel
organised crime groups using forensic intelligence:
A promising path forward
Simon BAECHLER1,2, PhD
1: School of Criminal Sciences, University of Lausanne, Switzerland
2: Forensic science service, Neuchâtel police department, Switzerland
International Crime and Intelligence Analysis Conference
Manchester (UK), 25th Febuary 2016
Objectives
• To introduce an innovative crime monitoring method based on
forensic intelligence
• To illustrate its contribution to the proactive detection and
investigation of organised crime and terrorist groups that
produce, disseminate and/or use forged and counterfeit identity
documents  case study
…
• To highlight this approach as a promising source of crime
intelligence, in the process of being implemented by Swiss police
departments
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S. Baechler, ICIAC 2016, Manchester (UK), 25.02.2016
A fundamental syllogism
• E. Locard principle (1920): «Every crime activity leaves a trace»
• Organised crime groups (OCG) activities generate data of forensic
interest: weak signals, faint traces
• Thus, forensic data can contribute to the detection and follow-up
of OCG through a systematic approach
Crime
activity
Generates
Forensic data
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Forensic intelligence method: principle
Inference
Inference
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3i Model – Forensic intelligence contribution
Criminal
environment
Interpret
Impact
Crime intelligence
analysis
Decision-maker
Influence
Forensic intelligence: An objective source of information
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Case study: initial situation and starting point
At first sight, separate investigations on isolated illegal aliens holding
counterfeit Portuguese passports did not raise much attention
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Case study: initial situation and starting point
• However, suspecting the potential involvement of an OCG, a
systematic forensic intelligence monitoring was triggered
• Collaboration Police/University (PhD thesis) to test and
implement a new method
• That brought investigators, crime analysts and forensic scientists
to collaborate actively
 Key success factors
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Forensic intelligence method: real-time follow-up
ProfID database
Observation
Public version edit
Codification
Follow-up
in real time
...
Links
Patterns
Trends
Analysis/Investigation
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Forensic intelligence contribution: links and groups
Detect and map
links between cases
Quickly build groups
Cross-jurisdictions
Demonstrate the
existence of a crime
problem (series)
and its prevalence
Inform on its
organised nature
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Forensic intelligence contribution
Temporal analysis of forensic links and groups
From August 2008 to…
…
… June 2013
Determine the outset of the crime problem: mid-2008
Unveil the underlying organisation: simultaneous groups over time, not
successive  3 manufacturing methods in parallel
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Forensic intelligence contribution: structure and integration
Links and groups based on forensic data processing are highlighted in red
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Final overview of the Asian criminal network
Links and groups based on forensic data processing are highlighted in red
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Modus operandi analysis/comparison with the market
Manufactured by a same source/network
Rest of the market
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100
Modus operandi analysis/comparison with the market
Lowest quality
60
40
0
20
Indice qualité [%]
80
High quality
AA
A* series
Marché
Market
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Forensic intelligence alert issued
Public version edit
Supports proaction
and prevention ;
Intelligence-led
policing
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Examination and comparison of counterfeit border stamps
Public version edit
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Examination and comparison of counterfeit border stamps
Extends the series to…
Counterfeit British passports
Public version edit
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Public version edit
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S. Baechler, ICIAC 2016, Manchester (UK), 25.02.2016
An Asian criminal network using counterfeit Portuguese passports
High quality false documents
Sum up…
Used nationwide to obtain
Swiss residence permits
Organised crime group
involved
human
Publicin version
edit
smuggling/trafficking
Public version edit
Remained undetected for 4
years
Not only Portuguese
passports
Investigation started with a
forensic intelligence followup engaged from the very
beginning
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S. Baechler, ICIAC 2016, Manchester (UK), 25.02.2016
3i Model – Forensic intelligence contribution
Criminal
environment
Interpret
Impact
Crime intelligence
analysis
Decision-maker
Influence
Forensic intelligence: An objective source of information
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S. Baechler, ICIAC 2016, Manchester (UK), 25.02.2016
Crime market analysis: initial perception…
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… and perception with forensic linkages
1/3 of the market
 Priorities!
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Model: Implementation in daily practice
Public version edit
Supports:
• Crime
analysis
• Investigations
• Operations
• Resource
allocation
• Coordination
efforts
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Generalisation: Forensic data of other types
Such as drug seizures, DNA, shoemarks,
counterfeit drugs or watches, etc.
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Conclusion
The forensic intelligence method:
• Enables to point to potential crime groups, prolific offenders and
prominent modus operandi
• Supports the detection and monitoring of crime patterns, trends
and links between cases
Integration and fusion of intelligence derived from various sources and
formats is a pivotal issue and a key success factor
 Investigators, crime analysts and forensic scientists need to
collaborate actively to make the best of forensic intelligence
Bridging university with police fosters innovative research for policing
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References
• Baechler S. & Margot P. Turning false identity documents into forensic
intelligence: understanding crime and fostering security using forensic science.
Security Journal – special issue Traceology: fusing forensic science and criminology
for security, 2016, Accepted, in press.
• Baechler S., Morelato M., Ribaux O., Beavis A., Tahtouh M., Kirkbride P., Esseiva
P., Margot P., Roux C. Forensic intelligence framework. Part II: Study of the main
generic building blocks and challenges through the examples of illicit drugs and
false identity documents monitoring. Forensic Science International, 2015, 250,
44-52.
• Morelato M., Baechler S., Ribaux O., Beavis A., Tahtouh M., Kirkbride P., Roux C.,
Margot P. Forensic intelligence framework. Part I: Induction of a transversal
model by comparing illicit drugs and false identity documents monitoring.
Forensic Science International, 2014, 236, 181-190.
• Baechler S., Ribaux O., Margot P. Toward a novel forensic intelligence model:
systematic profiling of false identity documents. Forensic Science Policy &
Management: an international journal, 2012, 3(2), 70-84.
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Questions?
• Thank you for your attention and interest!
• Questions or comments?
Simon.Baechler@unil.ch
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