Rationale and uses: lessons
from French PMQ
(Prospective des métiers et
des qualifications) projects
Tristan Klein
International symposium on Employment and skills forecasting - Warwick – 29/09/2011
Origins of the projects
International symposium on Employment and skills forecasting - Warwick – 29/09/2011
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A development of employment and
training forecasting for 30 years
• Works at national level from ministry of
Education (1985-2005) and Commissioner of
Plan – CAS (since mid 1990’s)
• Observatories of occupations and skills created
by professional sectors (cross sector collective
agreement 2003, 2009)
• Regional studies on occupations and skills
(regional observatories) and anticipation of
economic change works
International symposium on Employment and skills forecasting - Warwick – 29/09/2011
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History of PMQ projects
 1984 : first exercise of employment and skills forecasting in the
ministry of education (made by BIPE)
 1991 : Freyssinet’s report suggested studies by the prime
minister office with the partnership of social partners at sector
level
 1997, 2000, 2003 : three waves of forecasting in the Commissioner
of Plan (CGP) requested by the Prime minister
 2002 : Avenir des Métiers a report at the 2010 term made by CGP
and Dares (PMQ II)
 2005-2007 : Les métiers en 2015, report published by CAS and
DARES (PMQ III), in coordination with the project of ministry of
education
 2009-2011: new exercise Les métiers en 2020 at the request of the
Prime minister (PMQ IV) based on a road map written by the
secretary of state for the prospective
International symposium on Employment and skills forecasting - Warwick – 29/09/2011
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Several stakes due to labour market failures
• Optimizing the supply of training and increase the
capacity of anticipation, analysis and evaluation of
the vocational training system
• Promote better information for pupils, students and
applicants for vocational training in a logic of
Guidance throughout life
• Streamline the labor market and limit the pressure
on recruitment
• Identify sectors and occupations, dormant, emerging
or in tension
• Anticipate economic changes, both regional and
sectoral
International symposium on Employment and skills forecasting - Warwick – 29/09/2011
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The same goals since the beginning
• To Enrich the strategic thinking of the State, social
partners, economic operators (including occupational
sectors) and public debate on vocational training, labor
market fluidity ...
• To Enjoy the regional exercises, including regional
development plans of professional training (PRDFP)
and the definition of training maps
• To Respond to questions from users of the orientation:
parents, pupils, students in the educational sphere, but
also job seekers and employees
International symposium on Employment and skills forecasting - Warwick – 29/09/2011
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The current project (PMQ IV)
International symposium on Employment and skills forecasting - Warwick – 29/09/2011
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General scheme of joint projections
INSEE
Labour force forecasts
CAS with Erasme
- Nemesis
DARES
Sector scenario
Macroeconomic scenario
Occupations and skills
forecasts
Confrontation with the occupational
observatories industries
diagnostic
métier
Occupations
et rapport
diagnosis
and report
CAS
CAS
CAS and DARES
Departures at retirement
forecasts
CAS with
COR
Youth professional
integration forecasts
Effects of the 2010 reform
on Retirement forecasts
School leavers forecasts
INSEE
CAS with DEPP and DGESIP
International symposium on Employment and skills forecasting - Warwick – 29/09/2011
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Occupations and skills forecasts
• The FAP (‘familles professionnelles’) classification
– A French classification, combination of statistical (PCS) and
public employment service (ROME) classifications
• Forecasting in the 87 FAP level
• A specific approach for non market sector (health,
education, civil servant…)
• A discussion with industries based on forecasts
by industries observatories
• A mid-term horizon (8-10 years) : 2020
International symposium on Employment and skills forecasting - Warwick – 29/09/2011
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Scenarios building
Macro Module
Module Macro-sectoral
Module Sectors
Occupations
“Sustainable
growth” Scenario
CAS with
Erasme team
CAS
Dares
Baseline
CAS with
Erasme team
CAS
Dares
“Crisis” Scenario
CAS with
Erasme team
CAS
Dares
Employment by sectors
in 2020
Employment by
occupations in 2020
Results
GDP, labour
productivity and
unemployment in 2020
International symposium on Employment and skills forecasting - Warwick – 29/09/2011
Scope of the scenarios
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Organization of the project
• A 3 years project due to INSEE forecasts on
labour force (planned in October 2010)
• A team of 4 people (almost full time) with 10
people in support (partial)
• Many actors involved :
Strategic Committee
Technical Committee
(CAS, Dares, INSEE, DG
Trésor, DEPP, Pôle emploi,
COR, OREF…)
CAS
(Social partners, regional
authorities, education and
employment general
directorate
International symposium on Employment and skills forecasting - Warwick – 29/09/2011
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Problems and pitfalls
International symposium on Employment and skills forecasting - Warwick – 29/09/2011
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Problems
• Data despite the big role of national institute of statistics
– The French labour force survey changed and loses in quality to analyse
occupations and occupational mobility
• The recent trend breaks, especially labour productivity
• The qualitative change in employment
– The lack of studies on occupations and skills in France, especially by
economists
• The political constraints and the lack of knowledge in
economics in debates on labour market
International symposium on Employment and skills forecasting - Warwick – 29/09/2011
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Pitfalls
• The economic situation during the building of
forecasts
– For PMQ III, forecasts were made in 2000, the highest peak
for job creations within all the twentieth century in France 
Hypotheses were very optimistic and the report was critized
– For the current, the Crisis…
• Matching employment (i.e. labour demand) and
school to work transitions (i.e. labour supply)
– In our approach, we confront the results of two forecasts made
in parallel. 50% of youths who have access to employment in
their first 3 years are in an occupation different than their
training specialization
International symposium on Employment and skills forecasting - Warwick – 29/09/2011
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Uses and lessons
International symposium on Employment and skills forecasting - Warwick – 29/09/2011
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A plurality of applications
• Results and analysis influences regional and
sector forecasting exercises
• The common diagnosis for social partners and
public administrations that are in charge of
employment policies
• A tool for decision makers in education institutions
• A tool for orientation public service
• We play an important role in communication about
the results and analysis
International symposium on Employment and skills forecasting - Warwick – 29/09/2011
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Lessons
• Qualitative analysis and key messages are as
important as quantitative results
• A modeling that insist on potential job creations
and replacement of departures at retirement
• A report which provided an update on
developments in occupations and skills
• A report with results, analysis and some
discussions of employment and training public
policies
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