Analysis of Annual Forest Inventory Data in ME and PA
William H. McWilliams, Carol A. Alerich, Tonya W. Lister, and Randall S. Morin
USDA Forest Service, Northeastern Research Station, Forest Inventory and Analysis
Show You What We Have Found Out
About Penn’s Woods
Examples of New Analyses
For the 5-Year Report
Progress Update - Inventory
Regeneration Study: 2001
Associated Vegetation
Tree Seedlings
Exotics Survey: New in 2003
Progress Update - Reporting
Annual Reporting, 2001 and 2002
Annual Reporting, 2003/4
Five-Year Reporting:
 Penn State Issues Conference,
April 26-27, 2005
 Comprehensive Report
Mega-Trends: Land-Use Change
30
Forest Land Base is Stable
Millions of Acres
25
20
15
10
5
0
1630 1907 1938 1955 1965 1978 1989 2005
Year
Mega-Trends: Land-Use Change
Urbanization
Parcelization
Fragmentation
Population Density
Nonforest
Forest
0
1-25
25-50
50-100
100-250
250-500
500-1000
>1000
Urban area
Forestland Dynamics
Parcelization
Fragmentation
Fragmentation
Mega-Trends: Structure
Distribution of Forest Land by Stand-size Class
Percent of Forest Land
70
60
1955
50
2004
59%
49%
40
30
20
10
49%
23%
28%
11%
0
Sapling-seedling
Poletimber
Sawtimber
Mega-Trends: Structure
Number of Growing-Stock Trees Per Acre
70
1965
1978
1989
2002
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Mega-Trends: Composition
Percent of Cubic-Foot Volume
Oak is Decreasing and Red Maple is Increasing
45
40
Oak
35
30
Red Maple
25
20
15
10
5
0
1955
1965
1978
1989
2004
Sawtimber
125000
100000
75000
50000
25000
Thousands of Trees
Mega-Trends: Composition
150000
0
ne
pi
te h
hi irc
W kb
ac sh
Bl te a
hi ak
W e o ple
t
hi a
W r m ak k
g a u t o loc
Su tn m
es He
Ch ern ry k
st h er oa
Ea k c ed
r
ac n
Bl er
rth ple
No Ma
d
Re
500000
Poletimber
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
Thousands of Trees
Mega-Trends: Composition
h
as
k
te
hi ak oa
W e o ed
h
t
r
hi n ec
W her Be k
t
c
or n o
N ica ml
er He
Am ern
st ch
r
i
k
Ea b
k
oa
ac t
Bl tnu le
s p
he a
C r m ry
ga er
Su ch
k
e
ac pl
B l Ma
ed
R
ne
pi
te h
hi irc
W kb
ac sh
Bl te a
hi ak
W e o ple
t
hi a
W r m ak k
g a u t o loc
Su stn em
e H
Ch ern ry k
st h er oa
Ea k c ed
r
ac n
Bl her e
rt pl
No Ma
d
Re
1200000
Saplings
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
Thousands of Trees
Sawtimber
125000
100000
75000
50000
25000
Thousands of Trees
Mega-Trends: Composition
150000
0
ck
lo
m
He
n
er
st r n
Ea tho h
aw s le
H ite a ap
h m
W ped m
ri u e
St kg apl ch
ac m ee
Bl ar n B
g a
Su eric erry
h
Amck c ch
a ir
Bl k b le
ac ap
Bl M
ed
R
Current Threats
Ailanthus vs. Oak
Million Board Feet
100000
+ 57%
80000
60000
+ 19%
+ 77%
40000
+ 15%
20000
0
1955
1965
1978
1989
2004
Effects of Urbanization, Parcelization, and
Fragmentation Reduce Management Options
Inventory is Increasing at a Slower Rate than in the Past
Composition and Structure are Changing
Alien Pests are Here and More are on the Way
Advance Regeneration is Lacking and Options
Are Expensive
Invasive Plants are Here and Expanding Their Influence
Management and Policy Implications
Financially Mature, High-Value Stands
Predominate PA’s forested landscape
“Timber Availability” is less than FIA Data Imply
Timber Industry Will Need to Adapt to Species
Like Red Maple
Recreation Value is Approximately Equal to Timber Value in Many Areas
Methods to Project Current Conditions into the Future Need to be Developed
Better Wildlife Habitat Models Would Help Gauge Prospective Trends
Stand Rehabilitation will be Needed in Disturbed stands with Poor Regeneration
Sustainable Forestry on Private Lands Needs Assessed
Prepare Management Strategies for Late Successional and Old Growth Stands
Strategies for Invasive Plants and Pests Need Further Development
Regional Study Examples
Castanea dentata Map
What, Where,
Frequency
and of
When
Spruce
of the
Budworm
Next Spruce/Fir
Defoliation
Forest?
Principal Findings: The Next Generation of Spruce/Fir
Forest (Where and When?)
Current Distribution of
Next
Saplings
20 Years of Ingrowth
4-inch Class
5 Years
2-inch Class
3-inch Class
10 Years
1 inch Class
Low
High
15 Years
20 Years
Principal Findings: Inventory (Where?)
Where are the Major Species Concentrated?
Red Spruce
Balsam Fir
Eastern White Pine
Beech
Northern Red Oak
% BA/AC
Paper Birch
Forest Health: Balsam Fir
Forest Health: American Beech
Forest Habitat Types
Forest Diversity
Late-Succession Forests
?
The
End
What We Can’t Tell You Now
Less Than 50% of Plots Were Remeasured
Old Design
New Design
Only Central Portion Remeasured!
Only About 10% of Trees Remeasured the First Time Through
Growth, Removals, and Mortality Are Not Statistically Sound, Yet
We Will Remeasure More Trees This Season Than We Did in the First Five Years!
National Reporting Examples
Carbon Stocks and Accumulation
Tree Carbon Per Hectare by U.S. County
1015 grams by eco-component
12000
Arboreal
Understory
10000
8000
Floor
Soil
6000
4000
2000
0
1952 1970 1987 2000 2020 2040
Quercus spp. Map
Distribution of Mixed-Oak Stands in the Eastern US
Mixed-Oak Stands by Stand-Size Class
Urbanization
Pennyslvania
Population Density
Nonforest
Population Density
Forest
<= 25
0
1-25
25-50
50-100
100-250
250-500
500-1000
>1000
Urban area
26 - 50
51 - 100
101 - 250
251 - 500
501 - 1000
> 1000
0
10
20
30
Percent of Forestland
40
Parcelization – Private Forestland
(Source National Woodland Owner Survey, 1994)
Thousand Acres
PA
1978
8000
1993
6000
4000
2000
0
1-99
100-199
200-499
500-999
1000+
Parcel Size
NE PA
Thousand
Acres
1978
1000
1993
500
0
1-99
100-199 200-499 500-999
Parcel Size
1000+
Fragmentation
Thousands of Acres
Forestland Area by Patch Size - PA
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1-
10
10
-5
50
0
-1
00
10
0-
50
0
50
0-
Patch Size (Acres)
50
10
00
00
+
10
-5
00
00
0
19
98
20
00
19
96
19
92
19
94
19
88
19
90
19
84
19
86
19
80
19
82
Black Bear Population Estimate
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20000
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Deer Population Estimate
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
Elk Population Estimate
700
600
Turkey sightings/1000km
Habitat Concerns?
20
500
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
400
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
300
200
100
0
1,800,000
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
Habitat Concerns?
Forest Interior
Migrants
Generalists
Specific
Threatened
Late-Successional and Old Growth Forests
Mixed Oak
0
100
200
300
Age / Size
(After Whitman and Hagen, 2004)
Quantify Extent and Character
Spatial Distribution
For Major Forest Community Types
(follow Fike and Jenkins)